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Economy watch

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331 Re: Economy watch on Thu Oct 06 2016, 10:03

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
scottjames30 wrote:Somebody is already knocking at the door trying to sell us booze, we can get our booze a lot cheaper apparently, let's roll !!
Campaigners against low booze prices in this article.

332 Re: Economy watch on Thu Oct 06 2016, 10:21

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Theresa May and Hammond's return to fiscal policy at the expense of Osborne's monetary policy will have a big impact on many of us if they take us down that road.
Basically instead of quantitive easing designed to keep interest rates low, the economy will be based on tax increases and controlled spending.

This is basically what Labour are proposing and what both Trump and Clinton are selling in the States.

Interesting Newsnight article about it here.

333 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 17:55

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Looks like the "don't panic" messages have started.

Hammond finally seems to have cottoned on to the idea that the markets are twitchy and that they decide - not us - what the UK is worth. 
Maybe now, he and May will stop telling the world what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be? No wonder the markets have lost confidence in UK PLC when the so-called leaders give away their entire negotiation strategy before the talks have even begun.
Meanwhile we have the pound at a 31 year low against the dollar and still heading south along with the Euro rate. I'm not panicking yet but I just wish they'd stop making schoolboy errors in an effort to secure their own popularity amongst and provide some reassurances to the Brexiteers.

334 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 18:50

Copper Dragon

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
wanderlust wrote:
Meanwhile we have the pound at a 31 year low against the dollar and still heading south along with the Euro rate.


I wonder what folk were whining about in 2001 when the pound was down to 1.38 against the dollar?

The pound has been gradually declining against the Euro for the past 16 years.

All Brexit's fault.

335 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 19:22

sunlight

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Nicky Hunt
Nicky Hunt
Let them eat Carbs

336 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:20

Copper Dragon

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
UK Manufacturing output has risen to a quarterly high this year since Brexit
The International Monetary Fund has raised UK growth for this year
FTSE 100 near a record high
FTSE 250 near a record high
FTSE 500 considerably higher than before Brexit
Record car sales in UK for September
UK to be fastest growing G7 economy this year

Of course not everything is a bed of roses (when is it ever?) and there will be pitfalls and challenges to come, but will the whining Remainers who have a degree in Economics from the University of 'I'm Taking My Ball Home' admit that we haven't moved the country to the Sudanese desert, there isn't apocalypse and all is not lost?

337 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:26

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Copper Dragon wrote:UK Manufacturing output has risen to a quarterly high this year since Brexit
The International Monetary Fund has raised UK growth for this year
FTSE 100 near a record high
FTSE 250 near a record high
FTSE 500 considerably higher than before Brexit
Record car sales in UK for September
UK to be fastest growing G7 economy this year

Of course not everything is a bed of roses (when is it ever?) and there will be pitfalls and challenges to come, but will the whining Remainers who have a degree in Economics from the University of 'I'm Taking My Ball Home' admit that we haven't moved the country to the Sudanese desert, there isn't apocalypse and all is not lost?

Show some bloody respect, Breadman's had to knock his boat dream on the head.

338 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:30

Guest


Guest
Copper Dragon wrote:UK Manufacturing output has risen to a quarterly high this year since Brexit
The International Monetary Fund has raised UK growth for this year
FTSE 100 near a record high
FTSE 250 near a record high
FTSE 500 considerably higher than before Brexit
Record car sales in UK for September
UK to be fastest growing G7 economy this year

Of course not everything is a bed of roses (when is it ever?) and there will be pitfalls and challenges to come, but will the whining Remainers who have a degree in Economics from the University of 'I'm Taking My Ball Home' admit that we haven't moved the country to the Sudanese desert, there isn't apocalypse and all is not lost?

Absolutely fair, the Tories scare tactics didn't work (clearly) and the economy has done better since the referendum than the majority of experts predicted.

Got to remember though – so far nothing has happened. We haven't left the EU, we haven't agreed any trade deals and companies still don't know where they stand.

Brexit can't be written off as a disaster yet, but it shouldn't be heralded as a success either.

339 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:38

Copper Dragon

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
bwfc1874 wrote:

Got to remember though – so far nothing has happened. We haven't left the EU, we haven't agreed any trade deals and companies still don't know where they stand.

Brexit can't be written off as a disaster yet, but it shouldn't be heralded as a success either.


Of course, hence the......... 'Of course not everything is a bed of roses (when is it ever?) and there will be pitfalls and challenges to come'


We can make it work though, if everyone wants to make it work.

340 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:56

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Just out of interest, when it comes to negotiating these new trade deals post-Brexit, what cards do people thing we're holding which will put is in a strong bargaining position?

The City of London is a global centre for financial trading, I get that but what else have we got?

341 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 20:57

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Natasha Whittam wrote:

Show some bloody respect, Breadman's had to knock his boat dream on the head.

If only you knew, love,...if only you knew........

342 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 21:47

Copper Dragon

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
Bread2.0 wrote:The City of London is a global centre for financial trading, I get that but what else have we got?


Machines
Engines
Vehicles
Pharmaceuticals

We also do a great line in drunken yobs who have been propping up the economies of Benidorm, Magaluf and Ayia Napa for years.

There's a misconception that we don't make anything or export anything. Although it's no where near enough for a country that has virtually invented everything that a modern day country needs to make it tick.

343 Re: Economy watch on Fri Oct 07 2016, 23:48

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Honestly not trying to be an arse now but having worked in manufacturing for the last 25 years, I think I've got a bit of experience in this field.

Machines - Quite a broad term that. 

What do we mean exactly? Fruit machines? Fat busting vibrating belt machines? Tin openers?

Engines - Marine turbines? Steam engines? Box to box midfielders?

Vehicles - Cars then? How many wholly British owned car manufacturers are there left in this country? Tesco car park is hardly awash with Humbers and Austins is it?

Mrs B works for VW AG. German cars made in France and Spain, shipped over here to order.

There are foreign owned car plants in the UK but claiming them as our own is a bit of a stretch, surely?

Pharmaceuticals - (Where I work now incidentally) I'll sort of give you that one because there are still a lot of British companies churning out new products on a weekly basis.

However......said products are swiftly copied and flogged for far less than we can manufacture them for by massive Chinese and American conglomerates, hence the constant rush to bring new products to market - Hardly something we can use as a demonstration of how our technology is superior to Johnny Foreigner's simply because it's so open to being copied and rendered defunct almost immediately.

So I ask again, what's our USP?

344 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 02:37

Copper Dragon

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
Bread2.0 wrote:Honestly not trying to be an arse now 

That went well..........

Bread2.0 wrote:Fruit machines? 

Bread2.0 wrote:Tin openers?

Bread2.0 wrote: Box to box midfielders?

To be fair to you I should have put machinery instead, or as well as machines.

I don't believe that I did claim that foreign owned car plants are our own. They are multi national companies though and there's not a Jap back in Japan counting every penny from a car that is designed here, built here and exported from here.

Still, if I can find out about this stuff then I'm sure that you're more than capable.

Have I been an arse? I honestly wasn't trying.

345 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 07:56

Guest


Guest
Next time a leaver cheerily tells you that Brexit has had no economic impact, you don’t have to just roll your eyes and remind them we’re still in the EU. You can tell them that we’ve endured an involuntary currency devaluation to the tune of at least 13%. That helps some exporters, but it’s also made Britons poorer.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/07/marching-mad-brexit-someone-speak-48-per-cent?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The tone of the quote above is a bit condescending - I'm not a fan of Jonathan Freedland - but the article does make the point that I was getting at the other day. There's a worrying amount of rhetoric from the Tories pushing hard Brexit and a more right wing political agenda - plans to make companies list their foreign nationals has echoes of Hitler.

The referendum result is being distorted IMO, in a worrying way.

346 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 08:28

Norpig

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Jussi Jääskeläinen
Jussi Jääskeläinen
Bread2.0 wrote:Honestly not trying to be an arse now but having worked in manufacturing for the last 25 years, I think I've got a bit of experience in this field.

Machines - Quite a broad term that. 

What do we mean exactly? Fruit machines? Fat busting vibrating belt machines? Tin openers?

Engines - Marine turbines? Steam engines? Box to box midfielders?

Vehicles - Cars then? How many wholly British owned car manufacturers are there left in this country? Tesco car park is hardly awash with Humbers and Austins is it?

Mrs B works for VW AG. German cars made in France and Spain, shipped over here to order.

There are foreign owned car plants in the UK but claiming them as our own is a bit of a stretch, surely?

Pharmaceuticals - (Where I work now incidentally) I'll sort of give you that one because there are still a lot of British companies churning out new products on a weekly basis.

However......said products are swiftly copied and flogged for far less than we can manufacture them for by massive Chinese and American conglomerates, hence the constant rush to bring new products to market - Hardly something we can use as a demonstration of how our technology is superior to Johnny Foreigner's simply because it's so open to being copied and rendered defunct almost immediately.

So I ask again, what's our USP?
which Pharmaceutical company are you working for Breaders?

347 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 08:43

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
I'll PM you, mate.

348 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 08:44

karlypants

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I'm quite concerned if Breadders is working for a company that is looking into sticking tablets in pastries and cakes. Very Happy

349 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 09:32

Norpig

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Jussi Jääskeläinen
Jussi Jääskeläinen
covert administration it's called KP, they use it in all the mental institutions  Very Happy

350 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 10:08

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
bwfc1874 wrote:

The referendum result is being distorted IMO, in a worrying way.

Not least by Corbyn who actually thinks that the Brexit vote wasn't influenced by voters' concerns about immigration and seriously argues that there should not be any limits on immigration at all.

351 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 10:43

Guest


Guest
Fine Miles, and I agree he's way off on immigration if he actually wants to win power but I'd still rather be hearing the positive case for it from mainstream politicians than the Tories new line. Did you catch Amber Rudds conference speech?

352 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 11:04

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
We're going backwards here. 

Seriously...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/leading-university-accuses-government-of-barring-foreign-academi/

353 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 11:08

Guest


Guest
Unreal. Governments should be above this sort of shit, you don't just follow the whim of public opinion and start attacking foreigners because you think it's a vote winner. Spineless pricks.

354 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 11:19

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
bwfc1874 wrote:Fine Miles, and I agree he's way off on immigration if he actually wants to win power but I'd still rather be hearing the positive case for it from mainstream politicians than the Tories new line. Did you catch Amber Rudds conference speech?

Enough of it to be worried.

The Tories under May definitely seem to be going for the little Englander vote and with Corbyn "leading" the Labour party we have no effective opposition.

355 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 11:34

karlypants

avatar
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Norpig wrote:covert administration it's called KP, they use it in all the mental institutions  Very Happy
Very Happy

356 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 11:56

Bread2.0

avatar
Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Everybody's moving to the right politically.

It's happening here as well as in the States and Russia and you could argue that the Chinese are so far left, they've closed the circle and have a right wing, uber-nationalist government.

And if you look back through history, the rise of the political right on a global scale never ends well.

It's actually quite worrying.

357 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 14:33

wanderlust

avatar
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Bread2.0 wrote:Everybody's moving to the right politically.

It's happening here as well as in the States and Russia and you could argue that the Chinese are so far left, they've closed the circle and have a right wing, uber-nationalist government.

And if you look back through history, the rise of the political right on a global scale never ends well.

It's actually quite worrying.

This absolutely cracked me up. Amber Rudd's speech scripted by no less than Adolf Hitler!

358 Re: Economy watch on Sat Oct 08 2016, 14:50

wanderlust

avatar
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Copper Dragon wrote:UK Manufacturing output has risen to a quarterly high this year since Brexit
The International Monetary Fund has raised UK growth for this year
FTSE 100 near a record high
FTSE 250 near a record high
FTSE 500 considerably higher than before Brexit
Record car sales in UK for September
UK to be fastest growing G7 economy this year

Of course not everything is a bed of roses (when is it ever?) and there will be pitfalls and challenges to come, but will the whining Remainers who have a degree in Economics from the University of 'I'm Taking My Ball Home' admit that we haven't moved the country to the Sudanese desert, there isn't apocalypse and all is not lost?
Manufacturing is around 10% of GVA (%GDP) and employs a mere 2.5 million people although it represents 44% of our exports which shows what a huge imbalance there is in our economy. We do have a huge R & D industry but sadly we are working for foreign investors so don't get the benefit of it.

Whether we can improve/increase manufacturing is a moot point, but with the cost of raw materials rising massively, everything hangs on how the negotiations are handled and unfortunately the Government are making a right bollocks of it.

This is what the Maniufacturers Association and CBI think about it.

The issue I have is that the Government are making outrageous claims as to what kind of trade deals we will get in order to appease worried Brexiteers but in doing so have completely handed the initiative to the EU and every other nation we need to negotiate with. 

Couldn't negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag.

They are gambling on manufacturing and industry to lead the way supported by a weak pound but it's going wrong already:



"figures from the ONS showed that the UK's trade deficit widened in August.

The UK's deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated at £4.7bn, compared with £2.2bn in July. The deficit on trade in goods alone widened by £2.6bn to £12.1bn.

The widening deficit comes despite hopes that the weaker pound - which is currently trading at the lowest rate in more than three decades against the dollar - will boost demand for British goods.

Exports rose by just £100m against expectations of a £4bn increase. Imports, however, rose by £2.6bn in August following a slump in July."

So whilst the trade deficit is widening we are basically borrowing money/increasing our debt to buy in far more imports than we export - the exact opposite of the Government's "plan".

Plenty of time to go, but they have hardly got off to an auspicious start.

359 Re: Economy watch on Sun Oct 09 2016, 12:00

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
This is an interesting point about Brexit. Sir Keir Starmer has claimed that whilst the decision to leave the EU isnot on question, the Government's approach to the process i.e. the when and what should be subject to Parliamentary approval.
He is accusing the Government of railroading us down one particular path and trying to avoid the democratic process and to some extent he has a point inasmuch that what we negotiate for and when we do it will affect the economy in different ways and therefore impact on some more than others - issues which are often debated in Parliament.
Conversely it can be argued that the ruling party sets the budget without MPs having a vote on it. However the Government has a remit to deliver a budget that reflects their stated policies (OK they usually don't deliver on that) but still they do it without Parliamentary discussion or debate.

However I must be missing something. Surely if "what we want out of the negotiations and when" is to be discussed in Parliament the world and their dog will know our negotiating position before we even sit down at the table i.e. as naive as the current Government's approach. Don't they understand the concept of negotiation?

360 Re: Economy watch on Sun Oct 09 2016, 13:01

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
British Expats sue Juncker!

This is a great development. In essence Juncker made an edict to prevent EU members negotiating with the UK before we submit the Article 50 documents. This effectively puts the UK over a barrel, forcing us to commit to a process without having any cards to play - a situation exacerbated by our Government shooting their mouth off about what outcome of the negotiations they hope to get.

Obviously we need the deals to be concluded off-record before we trigger Article 50 but officially, that can't happen.

And Theresa May said on Sunday that we won't stay in the single market if it means we have to give up control of immigration which means we are prepared to leave the single market as well as the EU - a statement causing a fall in both the pound and FTSE.

So a group of British expats are suing Juncker on the basis that is against EU laws to create what is effectively a gagging order on it's members. Can't see them winning but at least somebody is pushing back a bit.

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