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Economy watch

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61 Re: Economy watch on Tue Aug 02 2016, 17:19

Chairmanda

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
wanderlust wrote:Contradictory figures from the construction sector just released. 
Construction activity continued to decline in July with the industry shrinking at it's fastest rate in seven years and this was reflected in reduced sales for builders merchants, however the Mineral Products Association says there was a slight increase in sales in July (Asphalt and concrete) 
So why are they selling more concrete and asphalt - but less of other materials - when overall building activity is falling? Weird.
Do construction industry figures cover buildings or roads as well? A lot of road stuff done during Summer holidays maybe that explains it? If not that, I'm with you, makes no sense.

62 Re: Economy watch on Tue Aug 02 2016, 19:00

whatsgoingon

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
The government have given out a lot of money to local councils for road improvements, St Peters Way resurfacing about 6 of the 8 million it's costing is by way of an award from central government
And Paddy usually has a bit of spare Tarmac on his wagon he could do your drive for you with

63 Re: Economy watch on Wed Aug 03 2016, 12:45

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Chairmanda wrote:
wanderlust wrote:Contradictory figures from the construction sector just released. 
Construction activity continued to decline in July with the industry shrinking at it's fastest rate in seven years and this was reflected in reduced sales for builders merchants, however the Mineral Products Association says there was a slight increase in sales in July (Asphalt and concrete) 
So why are they selling more concrete and asphalt - but less of other materials - when overall building activity is falling? Weird.
Do construction industry figures cover buildings or roads as well? A lot of road stuff done during Summer holidays maybe that explains it? If not that, I'm with you, makes no sense.
Construction includes Highways/Infrastructure and asphalt is also used in Housing and Commercial Property contracts as there are invariably new roads needed. Sorting out the roads is often the last thing they do on many projects so maybe it's partially to do with contractors focusing on finishing off jobs if there are no new ones to start - as well as Highway maintenance.

64 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 13:28

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
The Bank of England has today been forced to cut the base interest rate to 0.25% to try to stimulate the economy back into life. This is the lowest interest rate ever and it is rumoured that if things don't start to improve it could go even lower (which is why some banks already talking about charging customers just to have an account with them)

It will reduce mortgage repayments for the relatively few people whose rate is directly linked to the base rate (approximately 12% of mortgages will benefit) and will have a negative impact for anyone with savings or a private pension.

And as a result of lowering the interest rate the pound has fallen another 1% against all major currencies so far so will affect anyone going abroad for holidays.

Why did they cut the rate? BBC analysis here.

65 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 14:08

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Just read Mark Carney's statement and basically said if he hadn't cut the rate, there would have been a recession which implies that Hammond is a very, very grateful man today.
That said, as someone who depends on savings to survive, has paid off his mortgage and likes the occasional holiday abroad, perhaps recession might have been the better option.

There have already been a few warnings about banks potentially increasing the loans they make on the back of this as it could be a repeat of the loan crisis that fuelled the crash in 2009.

However, it looks like quantitive easing was the lesser of two evils but most analysts reckon it won't be enough to save the economy on it's own so expect cuts in the business rate in Hammond's first budget.


Some reaction to the rates decision:

Rupert Harrison, George Osborne's former chief of staff tweets:
"As @ChrisGiles_ put it, the Bank has administered some welcome anaesthetic, but not within its power to provide a cure for Brexit damage"


Lucy O'Carroll, chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management: "The Bank really needed to announce this kind of combination of measures. What will really count is whether the Chancellor provides a fiscal boost in the autumn. Monetary policy can't do much more on its own." 

Daniel Mahoney, head of economic research at the Centre for Policy Studies: "The Bank's further loosening of monetary policy could prove problematic for the UK economy. The falling pound means that inflationary pressures are already building up, and today's decision will exacerbate them." 


So, with a falling pound starting to push up inflation, it's now become increasingly essential that we manage to negotiate free trade with Europe as post-Brexit contraction in manufacturing and other key sectors has rendered us less able to compete despite the falling pound - which means that the imposition of tariffs would kill our exports.


In essence, it's looking increasingly like we are going to have to accept freedom of movement within Europe in order to secure the tariff-free trade deals of the kind we had before. Still we live in hope. Go negotiators! Go Boris!

66 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 16:22

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
I haven't paid for my hotel yet , in Euros, payable when I get to Mallorca. Double whammy is that the cost of the room, tied tod the exchange rate, has gone up, and the exchange rate itself, has gone down. I think I'm going to have to cough up another 200 Euros, or more, but cant bring myself to actually count it.
I console myself with thinking that my wife deserves it after working so hard all year  :whistle:

67 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 16:39

whatsgoingon

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
gloswhite wrote:I haven't paid for my hotel yet , in Euros, payable when I get to Mallorca. Double whammy is that the cost of the room, tied tod the exchange rate, has gone up, and the exchange rate itself, has gone down. I think I'm going to have to cough up another 200 Euros, or more, but cant bring myself to actually count it.
I console myself with thinking that my wife deserves it after working so hard all year  :whistle:
From the sounds of it mate you both deserve it, get out there and enjoy it.

68 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 16:44

whatsgoingon

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
wanderlust wrote:Just read Mark Carney's statement and basically said if he hadn't cut the rate, there would have been a recession which implies that Hammond is a very, very grateful man today.
That said, as someone who depends on savings to survive, has paid off his mortgage and likes the occasional holiday abroad, perhaps recession might have been the better option.
Don't worry about the holidays, apparently something like this moored in Cannes is the future

69 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 18:04

scottjames30

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
whatsgoingon wrote:
wanderlust wrote:Just read Mark Carney's statement and basically said if he hadn't cut the rate, there would have been a recession which implies that Hammond is a very, very grateful man today.
That said, as someone who depends on savings to survive, has paid off his mortgage and likes the occasional holiday abroad, perhaps recession might have been the better option.
Don't worry about the holidays, apparently something like this moored in Cannes is the future
:rofl:

70 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 18:18

Guest


Guest
It looked more like this actually:

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/302024936271?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

In fact, exactly like this.

Enjoy Mallorca, Glos.

Just got back and it was bloody hot.

71 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 18:25

boltonbonce

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Postage:
Will post to United Kingdom. Read item description or contact seller for postage 


That's one hell of a jiffy bag. Shocked

72 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 22:15

Reebok Trotter

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
scottjames30 wrote:
whatsgoingon wrote:
wanderlust wrote:Just read Mark Carney's statement and basically said if he hadn't cut the rate, there would have been a recession which implies that Hammond is a very, very grateful man today.
That said, as someone who depends on savings to survive, has paid off his mortgage and likes the occasional holiday abroad, perhaps recession might have been the better option.
Don't worry about the holidays, apparently something like this moored in Cannes is the future
:rofl:

So that's what happened to The Wanderer sailed by Captain Filbert Magoo.

73 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 22:39

Norpig

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Jussi Jääskeläinen
Jussi Jääskeläinen
where is the best place to get euros at the moment? Me and Mrs Pig are going to Barcelona soon for our 10th wedding anniversary

74 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 22:58

xmiles

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Norpig wrote:where is the best place to get euros at the moment? Me and Mrs Pig are going to Barcelona soon for our 10th wedding anniversary

I use TravelMoneyMax.com which is part of MoneySavingExpert.com to find the best rate.

75 Re: Economy watch on Thu Aug 04 2016, 22:59

Norpig

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Jussi Jääskeläinen
Jussi Jääskeläinen
cheers xmiles i'll have a look  :good:

76 Re: Economy watch on Fri Aug 05 2016, 10:19

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
I cant help but feel that there's an element of knee-jerk reaction still. Hopefully, we'll get past this soon, and the situation will be seen in its true light, (whatever that is)

77 Re: Economy watch on Fri Aug 05 2016, 10:55

gloswhite

avatar
Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
whatsgoingon wrote:
gloswhite wrote:I haven't paid for my hotel yet , in Euros, payable when I get to Mallorca. Double whammy is that the cost of the room, tied tod the exchange rate, has gone up, and the exchange rate itself, has gone down. I think I'm going to have to cough up another 200 Euros, or more, but cant bring myself to actually count it.
I console myself with thinking that my wife deserves it after working so hard all year  :whistle:
From the sounds of it mate you both deserve it, get out there and enjoy it.
Cheers WGO, I hadn't thought of it that way. Makes it sound better already Very Happy

78 Re: Economy watch on Fri Aug 05 2016, 10:55

gloswhite

avatar
Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
Breadman wrote:It looked more like this actually:

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/302024936271?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

In fact, exactly like this.

Enjoy Mallorca, Glos.

Just got back and it was bloody hot.
Good, I like hot

79 Re: Economy watch on Fri Aug 05 2016, 12:46

wanderlust

avatar
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
gloswhite wrote:I cant help but feel that there's an element of knee-jerk reaction still. Hopefully, we'll get past this soon, and the situation will be seen in its true light, (whatever that is)

I think that's what the Leave campaign were selling to voters i.e. there will be a short term reaction but things will "get back to where they were before" at some unspecified time in the future. Basically they were saying don't worry about what the experts were forecasting.

I reckon that was a very naive and oversimplified view (i.e. bullshit) because the markets and their impact on the exchange rate are all about confidence - not about how strong an economy is at any particular point in time. 

Before the referendum we were the sixth strongest economy in the world and we were doing really well at putting the recession behind us despite borrowing at unprecedented levels to do so. 

Everyone knew that the markets would react unfavourably to the Leave vote but what they failed to take into account was that a fall in the FTSE and the value of the pound would cause damage to the economy and that in turn would cause Britain to lose market share - not gain it as they predicted. And so it proved as the economy began to contract at a phenomenal rate which caused British manufacturers to scrap expansion plans and cut investment. And that's the problem that the Leave campaign didn't see coming.
They had in part pinned their hopes on a low value pound stimulating exports but if manufacturing is contracting and there is no investment going into it, what will we actually export if we are producing eff all? 

What could save us is striking new trade deals, but if the people you are negotiating with know you're in big trouble as we now are, they aren't going to be doing us any favours. I saw that the Fail on Sunday pointed out that they are queuing up (to give us a really shit deal) as things stand.

So Carney had to intervene by selling even more of the family jewels in the belief that the banks will lend more to businesses and the economy will start to turn around, but obviously that won't be enough without fiscal measures (e.g. reduction in business taxes) which I presume Hammond will include in his budget in October.
And even then it looks very bad for Britain. Broadbent announced today that the Bank of England are prepared to go even lower than the all-time lowest base rate of interest announced yesterday if the economy continues to worsen. Plus the BoE has been forced into buying £70 billion Government and Corporate bonds to prop us up for now. Broadbent talking about our prospects.

My hope is that all this desperate scrambling around by the new Government will restore at least a bit of confidence in Britain and that will allow our negotiators to salvage something from this debacle. We have headed off a full blown recession by the skin of our teeth at least for now so we need a break on the trade deal front - or rather a lot of breaks - if we are ever going to get back to where we were a few months ago but they tend not to look favourably on the desperate.

Maybe one day we'll get back to where we were but at the present time it looks like it's going to take years of unnecessary pain for no gain whatsoever, but as you say Glos, time will tell and our real challenges won't kick in until we actually leave the EU.

Everything will depend on confidence.

80 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:01

NickFazer

avatar
Andy Walker
Andy Walker
In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.



81 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:06

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

:clap:

Post of the week Mr Fazer.

82 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:11

karlypants

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Thank god I'm not the only one to think the same! Very Happy

83 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:20

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
Nicely put NF. It is sometimes forgotten that the other players on the field also have problems, and sometimes far worse than ours.

84 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 22:26

okocha

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Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
Yes, well said, Nick F.

 Obviously, there was bound to be initial uncertainty in the wake of a result that the "experts" and the government had not catered for.....and uncertainty leads to lack of confidence financially, but the aftermath is not proving as catastrophic as the scaremongers had claimed it would be. For example, our chancellor has not found it necessary to institute the sort of emergency, stringent, austerity budget that Osborne claimed would be essential in the event of Brexit. Those who have fled rather than stayed to manage the situation they created, have prolonged the uncertainty. Thanks, Dave et al.

Mrs May has brought a firm sense of calm, reason and competence. And, as NF says, how well are our European ex-partners doing in comparison....and not just in terms of their economies either?

I wonder if Mrs. Merkel feels at ease with the way things are panning out for the EU. Is the whole concept a project doomed to failure?

85 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 23:00

xmiles

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
NickFazer wrote:
The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

I agree that it will be some time before the full effects of Brexit are felt but I don't think anyone seriously suggested that if we had remained in the EU "everything would be rosy". However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people?

86 Re: Economy watch on Sat Aug 06 2016, 23:02

scottjames30

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Get article 50 signed and done with, fuck them off.

87 Re: Economy watch on Sun Aug 07 2016, 00:10

Sluffy

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Admin
Well said NickFazer.

There's two sides to every story.

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

Rolling Eyes

88 Re: Economy watch on Sun Aug 07 2016, 03:26

wanderlust

avatar
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.



Putting aside the market confidence thing for a moment, I totally agree that the full effect of Brexit won't be known until we have actually left so all we know is what's happening now - which is what the comment I made was about. And the point was that what happens now determines to some extent what shape we are in as we try to trade our way into a better position than that which recent setbacks have put us in - which was the leave campaign's plan all along wasn't it? 
Or should I say IS the Government's plan now?
I'm just saying that our negotiating position before the referendum (which underpinned that key argument) has changed since the referendum - and may therefore affect what Britain comes out with when we leave.
Basically, when we voted, we had a big stick to renegotiate trade deals with so we believed we'd be in a good place to negotiate better deals, but our stick is not what it was - and now France has a bigger stick than us.

89 Re: Economy watch on Sun Aug 07 2016, 09:14

NickFazer

avatar
Andy Walker
Andy Walker
In terms of the economy business will always be attracted to places where it is beneficial for them to be, it is the government's job to create those conditions. The fundamentals of the UK economy are as strong as any in the Eurozone and we should stop talking down our prospects and look at the opportunities in front of us. We haven't even begun to negotiate any deals yet but already the doom mongers are talking about us having to accept poor deals, this is precisely the sort of attitude that will become a self fulfilling prophecy, if it isn't beneficial to us then don't sign it.

90 Re: Economy watch on Sun Aug 07 2016, 09:54

okocha

avatar
Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
 However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people? 
.......whereas Cameron, Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan, Diane Abbott and Jeremy Clarkson(!!) do???!!!

There were far more issues at stake than just the economy.

If the EU was democratically electable and had shown itself capable of major reform, the result may have been different.

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