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Next GE

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1 Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 12:54

y2johnny

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Okay so the election has been and gone.  Conservatives have managed to forge a majority government with the help of the DUP.

Apparently corbyn lost by less than 2.5k votes.  I take it thats a culmination of how close it was in some areas.  

How long do we think the cons/DUP partnership will be able to last.  Will May be able to last or are we yet again doomed for a non elected pm in the form of Boris or Amber?

Do you think another snap GE will be called and if so when?

http://Www.thefacefittester.co.uk

2 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 13:39

boltonbonce

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
October.

3 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 13:41

Sluffy

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Admin
Red October perhaps?

4 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 15:32

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
If anybody's up for storming the Winter Palace before then, I'm up for it.

Just give us a shout.

5 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 15:34

wessy

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
October looks good

6 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 15:45

Sluffy

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Admin
Will Natasha vote Labour again?

7 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 15:50

boltonbonce

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Sluffy wrote:Will Natasha vote Labour again?

Unless this guy is the next Tory leader,I'm sure she'll back JC.

8 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 15:53

Cajunboy

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Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka
I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

9 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 16:14

Sluffy

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Admin
Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

Sinn Fein have already said they will resume talks yesterday (once they knew the DUP) had become so important to the Conservatives to remain in power.

No doubt they will make demands of the DUP to resume again at Stormont knowing that in turn the DUP can pressure the Conservatives into delivering.

It's all a mess.

Adams has already pointed out that for the first time ever the Unionist vote at an election was less than 50% and he sees looking to Dublin rather than London is the way forward.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-ready-to-resume-talks-aimed-at-reestablishing-stormont-executive-after-watershed-election-35809208.html

I don't think anyone wants a boarder between the north and the south if Brexit does happen - its going to be a nightmare to make it work if there is.

The longer this goes on the worse its going to get for all of us.

The Conservatives wanting to keep Corbyn out of power, people voting for Labour hoping that they will somehow stop Brexit. Corbyn was useless in promoting Remain during the referendum (many believing he was happy with a Brexit result) whilst May and the Conservatives are mainly pro Remain and are now dogmatic to achieve Brexit at all costs.

It would all be funny if it wasn't so serious for the future of all our children.



10 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 16:21

Cajunboy

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Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka
Sluffy wrote:
Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

Sinn Fein have already said they will resume talks yesterday (once they knew the DUP) had become so important to the Conservatives to remain in power.

No doubt they will make demands of the DUP to resume again at Stormont knowing that in turn the DUP can pressure the Conservatives into delivering.

It's all a mess.

Adams has already pointed out that for the first time ever the Unionist vote at an election was less than 50% and he sees looking to Dublin rather than London is the way forward.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-ready-to-resume-talks-aimed-at-reestablishing-stormont-executive-after-watershed-election-35809208.html

I don't think anyone wants a boarder between the north and the south if Brexit does happen - its going to be a nightmare to make it work if there is.

The longer this goes on the worse its going to get for all of us.

The Conservatives wanting to keep Corbyn out of power, people voting for Labour hoping that they will somehow stop Brexit.  Corbyn was useless in promoting Remain during the referendum (many believing he was happy with a Brexit result) whilst May and the Conservatives are mainly pro Remain and are now dogmatic to achieve Brexit at all costs.

It would all be funny if it wasn't so serious for the future of all our children.



As you say  "It's all a mess"

11 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 17:14

xmiles

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

:agree:

12 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 17:49

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Boris would probably prefer to wait until May has f****d up the brexit negotiations, especially if she still insists on taking us out of thatchers baby the single market - so that he can then step in as the "hero"

I only say this because I believe he puts his own success ahead of the country.

13 Re: Next GE on Sat Jun 10 2017, 19:59

Soul Kitchen

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
There cannot be a snap election unless two thirds of the commons agree as occurred this year.
I do think there's a good possibility of one later in the year but I actually think it may well be at Corbyn's behest, in other words he will be more guarded than before.
He could well find himself as PM next time with a Brexit can of worms to sort out.

14 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 15:37

wessy

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Either the Tories will revolt and take her out fairly quickly or they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10. back bencher's will want to protect there seat.

15 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 15:47

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.

16 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 16:35

y2johnny

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.
Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

http://Www.thefacefittester.co.uk

17 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 16:57

xmiles

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
The Tories will ditch May as soon as they can - she is toxic. Then with a bit of luck they will choose Boris. He is a buffoon whose act will wear very thin quite quickly.

Then anything is possible, including Corbyn as PM.

18 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 17:02

Fabians Right Peg

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Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
y2johnny wrote:
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.
Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

How does that work?

Tories would need to lose 28 seats and labour gain to make them largest party, there are not 28 seats with a labour conservative majority of less than 100.

Assuming then that they are looking at SNP labour coalition (ignoring the liberals who say they will not entertain coalition). There would still need 10 seats swing again, I don't think the figures work on that one.

Chuck in Plyd and the Greens and your maybe down to needing 4 or 5 seats and they may then have a coalition with a majority, but your still relying on the conservatives not being able to pass a queens speech and the liberal democrats holding the key to that one.

He would then be as much of a lame duck, if not more than May, he would have less MP's in his own party than the opposition.

The bottom line is that to form a government he needs way more than 2500 votes.

the conservatives, libs and UDP could be enough to vote down an alternative queens speech

19 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 17:06

Sluffy

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Admin
y2johnny wrote:
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.
Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

I don't know where you got that stat from Johnny but its clearly wrong.

The Conservatives got 56 more seats than Labour (318 to 262) and if you did the simple maths of dividing the 2,500 votes between those 56 seats it comes out at something like 50 votes per seat (44.64 votes per seat average).

The 5th lowest seat majority in the country was Goldsmith at Richmond on 45 (and even then they beat the Lib Dems into second).

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/general-election-smallest-majorities-constituencies/

And if that wasn't enough if Corbyn/Labour wanted an overall majority to actually win the election they would have needed a further 8 seats thus bringing the total up to 64 seats needed to win, and dividing 2,500 votes into those gives just less than an average of 40 votes per seat majority that they would have to overturn (39.06 average).

In other words I think your statement is completely wrong mate.


20 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 17:09

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
y2johnny wrote:Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

Did you fail your Maths GCSE by any chance?

21 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 17:19

BoltonTillIDie

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Jussi Jääskeläinen
Jussi Jääskeläinen
Total share was:

Conservative 13,667,213
Labour: 12,874,985

22 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 17:32

DEANO82


Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka
Sluffy wrote:
y2johnny wrote:
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.
Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

I don't know where you got that stat from Johnny but its clearly wrong.

The Conservatives got 56 more seats than Labour (318 to 262) and if you did the simple maths of dividing the 2,500 votes between those 56 seats it comes out at something like 50 votes per seat (44.64 votes per seat average).

The 5th lowest seat majority in the country was Goldsmith at Richmond on 45 (and even then they beat the Lib Dems into second).

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/general-election-smallest-majorities-constituencies/

And if that wasn't enough if Corbyn/Labour wanted an overall majority to actually win the election they would have needed a further 8 seats thus bringing the total up to 64 seats needed to win, and dividing 2,500 votes into those gives just less than an average of 40 votes per seat majority that they would have to overturn (39.06 average).

In other words I think your statement is completely wrong mate.


Think it was in the Metro, they said if he had won seven seats that were won by a small Conservative margin. He could have been Prime Minister IF the Lib Dems, SNP, DUC, Independent and the cleaning lady wanted to form a coalition.

23 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 18:21

y2johnny

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Because there where numerous seats that where very very close and those seats if corbyn had got them that is hoe far he was off winning those seats.  Less than 2500.

http://Www.thefacefittester.co.uk

24 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 18:23

y2johnny

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Sorry for the daily fail link but maybe now you can all chill calling me a plank


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4592456/DAN-HODGES-Britain-just-2-000-votes-abyss.html

http://Www.thefacefittester.co.uk

25 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 18:25

y2johnny

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
For balance

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-election-results-votes-away-prime-minister-theresa-may-hung-parliament-a7782581.html

http://Www.thefacefittester.co.uk

26 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 18:42

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
It's a bit like saying Gary Madine is only 50 goals a season away from being Lionel Messi.

27 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 18:53

Fabians Right Peg

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Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
Like I said and the independent article says, it would be a chance, but in such a scenario the Conservatives would still have the first shot at forming a government, with the Lib Dems not happy in a coalition with either party, neither labour or the Tories could rely on their support.

I do not think either Labour or the Tories would risk losing a vote on the queens speech so even with seven extra seats the likely outcome would be another general election.

If corbyn did take the risk and the tories didn't it would have seriously undermined any gains they had made so realistically he was nowhere near number 10.

28 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 19:07

Sluffy

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Admin
What they are both saying - as Deano has said above already - is meaningless.

In theory if Labour had taken seven marginal seats, then on paper the Conservatives and the DUP would need help from another party to form the Government.

However that doesn't mean in real life that would have happened - no one expected a Lib Dem / Conservative coalition a few years back for instance.

The paper lists the seats as -

"seven constituencies won by the Conservatives over Labour with the slimmest majorities were Southampton Itchen (majority 31); Preseli Pembrokeshire (majority 314); Hastings and Rye (majority 346); Chipping Barnet (majority 353); Thurrock (345 majority); Norwich North (majority 507); and Pudsey (majority 331)".

A total of 2227 votes.

But even this is meaningless because all you need is half plus 1 of those voters in each seat who voted Conservative to instead vote Labour for the seat to change - you do not require every single one of their votes.

Then as Deano said originally and FabiansRP a post or two later - a coalition of everyone else (and the tea lady!) with a majority of just 1, is completely unworkable.

Just to emphasise the absurdity of the story the independent went on to say -

"Had the Conservatives seized four seats from Labour – Dudley North (22 majority); Newcastle-under-Lyme (30 majority); Crew and Nantwich (48 majority); and Canterbury (187 majority) – Ms May would have been able to form a government without support from the Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats".

[Actually I that statement is not factually correct anyway as that would have given the Conservatives 324 seats when 326 seats are required but does work because Sinn Fain doesn't send its 7 MP's to Parliament nor does the Speaker use his vote]

Or 287 votes in 4 seats (or half plus 1 of those votes as explained above) then May would not have needed the DUP.

It's all theoretical if buts and maybe nonsense intended to fill column inches and intended to sensationalise things as 287 votes in 4 seats is more achievable than 2,227 in 7 seats - yet the story in both papers went for the more implausible Corbyn outcome than the May outcome.

29 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 19:41

wessy

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Fabians Right Peg wrote:
y2johnny wrote:
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.
Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

How does that work?

Tories would need to lose 28 seats and labour gain to make them largest party, there are not 28 seats with a labour conservative majority of less than 100.

Assuming then that they are looking at SNP labour coalition (ignoring the liberals who say they will not entertain coalition). There would still need 10 seats swing again, I don't think the figures work on that one.

Chuck in Plyd and the Greens and your maybe down to needing 4 or 5 seats and they may then have a coalition with a majority, but your still relying on the conservatives not being able to pass a queens speech and the liberal democrats holding the key to that one.

He would then be as much of a lame duck, if not more than May, he would have less MP's in his own party than the opposition.

The bottom line is that to form a government he needs way more than 2500 votes.

the conservatives, libs and UDP could be enough to vote down an alternative queens speech
No way would the Lib Dems make that mistake again if they did they would be finished and rightly so.

30 Re: Next GE on Sun Jun 11 2017, 20:28

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
May will plough on like a leper with two broken legs wading through treacle until the tories put her out of her misery or we get to a point when the nation revolts against the demolition of our economy that they have masterminded over the last two years - but there is no way Corbyn has any kind of mandate to have a go at steering the ship.

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