Next GE

Okay so the election has been and gone.  Conservatives have managed to forge a majority government with the help of the DUP.

Apparently corbyn lost by less than 2.5k votes.  I take it thats a culmination of how close it was in some areas.  

How long do we think the cons/DUP partnership will be able to last.  Will May be able to last or are we yet again doomed for a non elected pm in the form of Boris or Amber?

Do you think another snap GE will be called and if so when?

October.

Red October perhaps?

If anybody's up for storming the Winter Palace before then, I'm up for it.

Just give us a shout.

October looks good

Will Natasha vote Labour again?

Sluffy wrote:Will Natasha vote Labour again?

Unless this guy is the next Tory leader,I'm sure she'll back JC.

Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

Sinn Fein have already said they will resume talks yesterday (once they knew the DUP) had become so important to the Conservatives to remain in power.

No doubt they will make demands of the DUP to resume again at Stormont knowing that in turn the DUP can pressure the Conservatives into delivering.

It's all a mess.

Adams has already pointed out that for the first time ever the Unionist vote at an election was less than 50% and he sees looking to Dublin rather than London is the way forward.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-ready-to-resume-talks-aimed-at-reestablishing-stormont-executive-after-watershed-election-35809208.html

I don't think anyone wants a boarder between the north and the south if Brexit does happen - its going to be a nightmare to make it work if there is.

The longer this goes on the worse its going to get for all of us.

The Conservatives wanting to keep Corbyn out of power, people voting for Labour hoping that they will somehow stop Brexit. Corbyn was useless in promoting Remain during the referendum (many believing he was happy with a Brexit result) whilst May and the Conservatives are mainly pro Remain and are now dogmatic to achieve Brexit at all costs.

It would all be funny if it wasn't so serious for the future of all our children.

Sluffy wrote:

Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

Sinn Fein have already said they will resume talks yesterday (once they knew the DUP) had become so important to the Conservatives to remain in power.

No doubt they will make demands of the DUP to resume again at Stormont knowing that in turn the DUP can pressure the Conservatives into delivering.

It's all a mess.

Adams has already pointed out that for the first time ever the Unionist vote at an election was less than 50% and he sees looking to Dublin rather than London is the way forward.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-ready-to-resume-talks-aimed-at-reestablishing-stormont-executive-after-watershed-election-35809208.html

I don't think anyone wants a boarder between the north and the south if Brexit does happen - its going to be a nightmare to make it work if there is.

The longer this goes on the worse its going to get for all of us.

The Conservatives wanting to keep Corbyn out of power, people voting for Labour hoping that they will somehow stop Brexit.  Corbyn was useless in promoting Remain during the referendum (many believing he was happy with a Brexit result) whilst May and the Conservatives are mainly pro Remain and are now dogmatic to achieve Brexit at all costs.

It would all be funny if it wasn't so serious for the future of all our children.

As you say  "It's all a mess"

Cajunboy wrote:I guess there will be a Tory leadership election in the summer recess before the political conference season, unless May is removed before then.


Would the new Tory Leader call for a GE this year or perhaps try to spin it out to the spring of next year?


It's sure going to be a very interesting year whatever happens.


I think the arrangement with the DUP is going to be very tricky, in view of the power sharing agreement in Stormont  collapsing.


How can the UK government be a fair broker, if it is relying on the DUP in parliament

Boris would probably prefer to wait until May has f****d up the brexit negotiations, especially if she still insists on taking us out of thatchers baby the single market - so that he can then step in as the "hero"

I only say this because I believe he puts his own success ahead of the country.

There cannot be a snap election unless two thirds of the commons agree as occurred this year.
I do think there's a good possibility of one later in the year but I actually think it may well be at Corbyn's behest, in other words he will be more guarded than before.
He could well find himself as PM next time with a Brexit can of worms to sort out.

Either the Tories will revolt and take her out fairly quickly or they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10. back bencher's will want to protect there seat.

wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.

Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

The Tories will ditch May as soon as they can - she is toxic. Then with a bit of luck they will choose Boris. He is a buffoon whose act will wear very thin quite quickly.

Then anything is possible, including Corbyn as PM.

y2johnny wrote:

Natasha Whittam wrote:

wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.

Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

How does that work?

Tories would need to lose 28 seats and labour gain to make them largest party, there are not 28 seats with a labour conservative majority of less than 100.

Assuming then that they are looking at SNP labour coalition (ignoring the liberals who say they will not entertain coalition). There would still need 10 seats swing again, I don't think the figures work on that one.

Chuck in Plyd and the Greens and your maybe down to needing 4 or 5 seats and they may then have a coalition with a majority, but your still relying on the conservatives not being able to pass a queens speech and the liberal democrats holding the key to that one.

He would then be as much of a lame duck, if not more than May, he would have less MP's in his own party than the opposition.

The bottom line is that to form a government he needs way more than 2500 votes.

the conservatives, libs and UDP could be enough to vote down an alternative queens speech

y2johnny wrote:

Natasha Whittam wrote:

wessy wrote: they are now running scared that a GE any time soon would put Corbyn in number 10.

You're dreaming. You realise Labour lost the election don't you, by a huge margin.

There's more chance of me being PM than JC.

Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

I don't know where you got that stat from Johnny but its clearly wrong.

The Conservatives got 56 more seats than Labour (318 to 262) and if you did the simple maths of dividing the 2,500 votes between those 56 seats it comes out at something like 50 votes per seat (44.64 votes per seat average).

The 5th lowest seat majority in the country was Goldsmith at Richmond on 45 (and even then they beat the Lib Dems into second).

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/general-election-smallest-majorities-constituencies/

And if that wasn't enough if Corbyn/Labour wanted an overall majority to actually win the election they would have needed a further 8 seats thus bringing the total up to 64 seats needed to win, and dividing 2,500 votes into those gives just less than an average of 40 votes per seat majority that they would have to overturn (39.06 average).

In other words I think your statement is completely wrong mate.

y2johnny wrote:Less than 2500 votes kept jc pout of number ten. Thats not a huge margin

Did you fail your Maths GCSE by any chance?