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Bolton Nuts » BWFC » Wandering Minds » Brexit negotiations

Brexit negotiations

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871 Re: Brexit negotiations on Tue Jul 10 2018, 17:30

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44785797

Who cares? Obviously nobody else is going to resign and May will soldier on for the time being.

872 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 11 2018, 14:12

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I think the Tories need a reality check.
Brexit 1 was based on the original promises and lies bandied about at the time of the referendum which didn't take any account of the other side in the negotiations so was obviously undeliverable.
After the EU had put them back in their box they came up with Brexit 2 which was a modification of Brexit 1 - still not achievable, but enough to keep Leave voters on side and with enough wriggle room to pretend it's all going to plan. But ultimately, it wasn't ever on the cards.
Brexit 3 is May's compromise based on what is possibly negotiable, but doesn't address key issues such as the NI border. Even so it's miles away from what the Leave voters voted for so if May manages to push it through, nobody will be happy.

The elephant in the room is that they can't deliver an end to free movement etc without further ruining the economy but despite being a new conversation that the Government needs to have with the people of Britain, they continue to avoid it as they know it's a vote loser.

For now they seem to be pretending that something similar to what was promised could be achieved even though they know it's not and the least damaging Brexit option - the Norway model (which was bandied about by the leave campaign during the referendum until they realised it wouldn't satisfy the xenophobes) is starting to get traction again.

The only possible outcome is that neither Remainers nor Leavers will be satisfied.

The reality of Brexit is finally starting to bite and as we count down to BIDET or whatever they call the day we are due to leave, there will be increasing pressure on the Tories to come clean as it were.

873 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 10:10

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Now former Tory Cabinet minister Justine Greening has joined in the calls for a scecond Brexit referendum - which she won't get and will be derided by the diehard Leavers with the usual mantras, however she makes a couple of good points e.g.

Even if May achieves everything she has outlined in her new set of soft Brexit objectives as a starting point for the negotiations (highly unlikely) the half of the country that voted remain or were denied a vote will be dragged into a situation where we are still governed by some European laws but will have lost the right to influence/change them.

Similarly, the half of the country that voted to Leave will not get the self-determination they say they voted for - and they sure as hell won't like that - so we have managed to get ourselves into a lose-lose situation at the end of two years of trying to work out what we actually want from Brexit.

For now, Leave voters are sticking with the mantra of "getting on with it" whilst trying to avoid the question of what "it" actually is, but as negotiations progress and May has to spin the deal to them it's difficult to see how they would accept any of it.

I am skeptical about a second referendum. When the first referendum took place, it was a simple Yes or No question that was supported by campaigns that have subsequently been proven to have been based on falsehoods and (according to some observers) the vested interest of international corporations who would be unaffected, but gradually the British public have started to realise the potential ramifications - and the fact that the EU and other international partners won't be giving us everything we want in what continues to look like a messy divorce. The public are also realising that Yes/No doesn't cut it when there are multiple issues in a complex scenario so a second single question Yes/No referendum wouldn't be able to capture the true feelings of the British people.

That said, we're in a mess of our own making and at some point we have to stop digging ourselves into a deeper and deeper hole and have an honest and open discussion about it because the vultures are circling and are already taking advantage of our new weakness. We need to regroup behind a strong, unified message that has a genuine mandate.

Tick tock.

874 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:27

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
A second referendum does offer a way out of this mess but the brexiteers will never allow it. Their approach to democracy is exactly the same as Islamic fundamentalists who are allowed to campaign in democracies. Once they win that is the end of elections because thepeople have spoken and the will of the people must be respected.

875 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:29

rammywhite

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Thanks Lusty- but what is that 'strong unified message'- and where do you get a 'genuine' mandate from and what is it?
That's what I think Teresa May has been searching for ,for the last  20 months or so.
If I were her I would simply say, I've done my best and its clearly not good enough ,so sod it, and walk away. Then Jezza and his wrecking balls can take over the negotiations.

876 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:35

Dunkels King

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Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka
I’m still waiting for Nat to tell me what Brexit will do for her that will be better than what she had before. Maybe I am on her ignore list now. The problem is, two years down the road, no one has any idea, other than the fact everyone will be worse off based on price increases of even basic commodities. The saddest thing is that Trump has now got involved, first saying to the Sun that there will be no trade deal with the UK, and then back tracking and saying we will have a great deal. Unfortunately, it will be only a great deal for the USA, otherwise he has gone against everything he told his own people, which is he will only sign deals that benefit the USA. I’m scratching my head to see what the UK could send to the USA that they don’t produce, or don’t import already. I’m also trying to work out how it will work out cheaper to export or import to/from the USA cheaper than from the EU. 

What an absolute mess. Meanwhile, here in Germany, my life goes in, still with no idea if I will be able to live and work here long term, or if I will be booted out of the Country if I lose my job. Oh for an EU Citizenship for those who don’t want to become Island Monkeys again.

877 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:41

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
If we do agree a trade deal with America it will only benefit America - unless you are looking forward to chlorine flavoured chicken and hormone stuffed beef.

878 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:47

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@xmiles wrote:A second referendum does offer a way out of this mess but the brexiteers will never allow it. Their approach to democracy is exactly the same as Islamic fundamentalists who are allowed to campaign in democracies. Once they win that is the end of elections because thepeople have spoken and the will of the people must be respected.

You can't have a referendum until you get the result you want.

879 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 11:52

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
@Natasha Whittam wrote:
@xmiles wrote:A second referendum does offer a way out of this mess but the brexiteers will never allow it. Their approach to democracy is exactly the same as Islamic fundamentalists who are allowed to campaign in democracies. Once they win that is the end of elections because thepeople have spoken and the will of the people must be respected.

You can't have a referendum until you get the result you want.

I assume you are paraphrasing the brexit line which was that they will keep moaning about the EU until they get the result they want.

Farage famously said that a 52/48 loss meant that a second referendum was necessary because "“In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” Funny how that only works one way with brexiteers.

880 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 12:12

boltonbonce

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@xmiles wrote:
@Natasha Whittam wrote:
@xmiles wrote:A second referendum does offer a way out of this mess but the brexiteers will never allow it. Their approach to democracy is exactly the same as Islamic fundamentalists who are allowed to campaign in democracies. Once they win that is the end of elections because thepeople have spoken and the will of the people must be respected.

You can't have a referendum until you get the result you want.

I assume you are paraphrasing the brexit line which was that they will keep moaning about the EU until they get the result they want.

Farage famously said that a 52/48 loss meant that a second referendum was necessary because "“In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” Funny how that only works one way with brexiteers.
Very true.
I noticed old lizard lips Farage was doing the TV rounds again yesterday. Things must be getting serious.

881 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 12:51

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
A second referendum is very unlikely to happen. In other countries e.g. Canada re the Quebec independence referendum the side that was lucky enough to win the first vote pulled out the "keep going until you get the result you need" card and called it "neverendum" Smile


Obviously it's a shit argument as over time, more facts about what is achievable come out, campaign lies are exposed, the situation and objectives change and therefore the public are voting on different issues with a different level of understanding so it's not the same vote, but those who edged it first time round will make the argument anyway.

However with 8 Tories having resigned since May came up with the soft Brexit Chequers plan, a 6% fall in support for the Tories in a month and a potential leadership challenge in the air, it's looking increasingly likely that Brexit will flounder and the worst of all worlds is a limbo situation where nothing can be achieved either way. And that is the real problem IMO.

As regards a referendum, I think that the only useful and moreover unquestionable one would be a referendum wherein ALL British citizens are allowed to vote on a specific plan or negotiated position rather than another airy fairy concept that nobody fully understands or has been agreed in principle by all parties including the EU. To achieve this, the Government would have to go to the EU and negotiate a position with the caveat that it would be run by the people.

The referendum would then list the agreed-in-principle points e.g. Customs Union, continued free movement etc - probably a list of a dozen or so bullet points and then ask the people to vote Yes or No on each point. 
Although it would be very unlikely that the whole plan would be accepted "as is" in it's entirety, it would provide a clear and unequivocal picture of what people want that the Government could take back to the EU.

When that is done, and the Government has attempted to renegotiate the points that us Brits don't agree with (the baby in the bathwater) - and only those points - and if the EU won't agree to them, then the Government would  rightly be able to say that they are not achievable and it's the EU's fault which the British public would be more likely to accept.

However, whilst they continue to bundle up lots of different aspects of the deal and give the people a choice of "all or nothing" then the limbo situation will continue as nobody will be happy with it.

882 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 13:12

rammywhite

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Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Another referendum in the way that you suggest it Lusty would be a recipe for chaos. Most were fooled last time by a simple yes or no question. How would the mass of the population understand a series of questions about a customs union ( like Switzerland, Norway, Canada?) , a free trade zone, a walk away situation, freedom of labour,services or capital.  Most ,like last time ,would go back to their primary concern, the reason they previously voted  (like immigration ,the ECJ) etc.
.
The longer the impasse goes on ,the longer it looks like we walk away with no deal, or that sovereign elected governments  in the 27 other countries lean on Brussels based ,non elected bureaucrats to demand a solution that doesn't damage their own economies. The imposition of tariffs, given the balance of trade in physical goods would suggest that  a large number would see their own economies damaged by a no deal, deal.

883 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 13:24

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@xmiles wrote:I assume you are paraphrasing the brexit line which was that they will keep moaning about the EU until they get the result they want.


It's simply a fact. We had a referendum, just because you don't like the result doesn't mean we should have another.

What if we have another and the result goes the same way, will you want a third?

884 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 16:20

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@rammywhite wrote:Another referendum in the way that you suggest it Lusty would be a recipe for chaos. Most were fooled last time by a simple yes or no question. How would the mass of the population understand a series of questions about a customs union ( like Switzerland, Norway, Canada?) , a free trade zone, a walk away situation, freedom of labour,services or capital.  Most ,like last time ,would go back to their primary concern, the reason they previously voted  (like immigration ,the ECJ) etc.
I still think unbundling the offer is preferential though. 

The last referendum was like asking "would you like to end immigration, kill all puppies and make it compulsory to support Man United? yes or no?"

885 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 20:35

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
Jesus you could not make this up! May has now given in to the brexit loons. Of course she claims that nothing has changed just like she did when she completely changed her proposed dementia tax during the last election campaign.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

886 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 20:41

karlypants

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
She's weak and wobbly. Time she fucked off TBH.

887 Re: Brexit negotiations on Mon Jul 16 2018, 22:23

bwfc71

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
@Natasha Whittam wrote:
@xmiles wrote:I assume you are paraphrasing the brexit line which was that they will keep moaning about the EU until they get the result they want.


It's simply a fact. We had a referendum, just because you don't like the result doesn't mean we should have another.

What if we have another and the result goes the same way, will you want a third?

Yes, correct, we had aa referendum in 1975.  That was a very more definite choice to remain.

But guess what the Leavers were never happy and campaigned for over 40 years to get their way to have a second referendum, with aa narrowest of results - which, as said above even Farage said if it was 48/52 it would be unfinished business.

Really what the Government should have said to the EU-moaners is what you are saying now - no to another referendum.  As it is Cameron was worried about members moving to UKIP and caved in, just as much as May has caved in at every turn to the hard-line leavers.  The UK is in a complete mess due to the second referendum, in 2016. The country is split, each political party (apart from LibDems and Greens) are split, the finances of Brexit are going over the top - now spending above £2billion/year just on Brexit - realisation that the grass is not greener more and more each day.

it is now time to exit Brexit and get back to a level playing field rather than looking forward to being "The sick man of Europe" once again, just as we were when we had to join the EEC/EU as no one would lend us any more money to keep the country afloat.

888 Re: Brexit negotiations on Tue Jul 17 2018, 07:33

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
No surprise given the level of dishonesty in the leave campaign:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44856992

889 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 14:16

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Had to laugh when Tory MP Andrea Jenkins asked May "at what point was it decided that Brexit means Remain?" in PMQs.

Tories have always been divided over Europe and when the pro-business Tories rebelled over the proposed amendment to set up a Customs Union if a trade deal isn't achieved they were only defeated by 6 votes.

And talking of Government majority, they were a bit naughty about that pairing arrangement with Swinson weren't they? Of course, nowt will be done about it.

890 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 14:33

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
And we now have the spectacle of Labour brexit rebels keeping May in power. :facepalm:

891 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:12

Cajunboy

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker

892 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:15

Norpig

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
That's his first shots in trying to become leader, God help us all  affraid

893 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:17

Cajunboy

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Could be worse, could be Corbyn.

894 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:28

karlypants

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Cajunboy wrote:Could be worse, could be Corbyn.
Exactly!

There’s nowt wrong with Boris, he would be far far better than May the weak and wobbly PM AND the idiotic Corbyn!

895 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:33

Norpig

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

896 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 16:55

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
@karlypants wrote:
@Cajunboy wrote:Could be worse, could be Corbyn.
Exactly!

There’s nowt wrong with Boris, he would be far far better than May the weak and wobbly PM AND the idiotic Corbyn!

If you want a pathological liar and buffoon as PM by all means vote for Boris.

897 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 17:27

boltonbonce

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If Boris lived in a village populated only by village idiots from every other village in the country,he'd still be the village idiot.

898 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 17:31

T.R.O.Y


Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Unless karly was there.

899 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 17:52

xmiles

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Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo
@boltonbonce wrote:If Boris lived in a village populated only by village idiots from every other village in the country,he'd still be the village idiot.

Laughing

900 Re: Brexit negotiations on Wed Jul 18 2018, 18:02

karlypants

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@T.R.O.Y wrote:Unless karly was there.
You never change do you. Laughing

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