Coronavirus - will we survive?

It seems very unlikely with an 80 seat majority, despite his cock ups.

Cajunboy wrote:It seems very unlikely with an 80 seat majority, despite his cock ups.

It is very unlikely - 2/1 means they're suggesting there's a one in three chance of it happening. (technically slightly more than that as they have a built in margin)
The significant bit is the change in odds as not so long ago it was a one in thirteen chance so it's indicative of the direction of travel.

Just look on this as an early mid-term slump in popularity, which is quite common. 

I'm struggling to understand why so many of us are dying despite allegedly having a lower infection rate than the rest of the EU. Why? Do Brits die more easily than other europeans?

article in the London economic writes:

"despite the UK’s comparatively low rate of infection, its death rate remains persistently high. On Saturday, Britain reported 61 deaths from the Covid-19 – compared to 45 across the entire EU.
Stats from John Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracking project reveal that Britain has suffered 825 deaths in the last two weeks. 
The EU27 as a whole has recorded 1,044 deaths over the past two weeks. Spain has seen just 23 deaths in that time, whereas Belgium has seen 45, Croatia has suffered 20 and Luxembourg just two.
Johnson is arguably right to be cautious, given that deaths from Covid-19 tend to lag behind infections. Nonetheless, he has left himself open to accusations of hypocrisy. 
The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, pointed out that Britain arguably has a worse grip of the coronavirus than his own country.
He pointed out that the upsurge in coronavirus cases is focused in two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, adding: “In most of Spain, the incidence is very much inferior to even the numbers registered in the United Kingdom.”
So what's going wrong? 
Is our testing and track and trace so poor that we don't know the real infection rate?
Are our treatment services for patients inferior?
Are we worse than say Rumania at recording deaths and suddenly a bunch of deaths have only just been noted in the last fortnight?
Is the Government suppressing the true story?
Whatever it is, there's something seriously wrong.

Had a walk into Birchwood today, for the first time in weeks, and I have to say it was pretty dead. A lot of the shops are still closed, and apart from ASDA and Home Bargains, the other open shops are doing very little business.
I only passed three people going too and from the centre, and there's a general feeling of still being in lockdown.
I've ordered my Wanderers face covering.

wanderlust wrote:I'm struggling to understand why so many of us are dying despite allegedly having a lower infection rate than the rest of the EU. Why? Do Brits die more easily than other europeans?

article in the London economic writes:

"despite the UK’s comparatively low rate of infection, its death rate remains persistently high. On Saturday, Britain reported 61 deaths from the Covid-19 – compared to 45 across the entire EU.
Stats from John Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracking project reveal that Britain has suffered 825 deaths in the last two weeks. 
The EU27 as a whole has recorded 1,044 deaths over the past two weeks. Spain has seen just 23 deaths in that time, whereas Belgium has seen 45, Croatia has suffered 20 and Luxembourg just two.
Johnson is arguably right to be cautious, given that deaths from Covid-19 tend to lag behind infections. Nonetheless, he has left himself open to accusations of hypocrisy. 
The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, pointed out that Britain arguably has a worse grip of the coronavirus than his own country.
He pointed out that the upsurge in coronavirus cases is focused in two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, adding: “In most of Spain, the incidence is very much inferior to even the numbers registered in the United Kingdom.”
So what's going wrong? 
Is our testing and track and trace so poor that we don't know the real infection rate?
Are our treatment services for patients inferior?
Are we worse than say Rumania at recording deaths and suddenly a bunch of deaths have only just been noted in the last fortnight?
Is the Government suppressing the true story?
Whatever it is, there's something seriously wrong.

I wrote about this recently -

https://forum.boltonnuts.co.uk/t21160p120-coronavirus-will-we-survive#408493

The vast majority of the deaths are being recorded outside hospitals.

Anybody in the community who is ill enough to end up dying with Covid would have phoned up for an ambulance and be treated/die there, so I reasoned the bulk of the deaths most be from care homes and hospices.

As there is sufficient capacity in hospitals to deal with Covid up to know, then they aren't shipping terminal cases out to hospices to die, so the dead most be occurring in end of life people.

If you die from other natural causes but have Covid in your system when tested at death you are counted as a Covid death.

What I'm guessing might be happening with the stats you printed is that country's are reporting deaths in different ways to each other - comparing apples with oranges.

If you just compared reported hospital deaths - there were just 16 in the whole of the UK when I posted what I did in the link above - yet we reported 278 in total from ALL settings.

Maybe other country's are just reporting deaths through Covid from hospitals - if so we are more than on a par with them.

And why would you even think to say that the government is 'suppressing the true story' when it's recording and reporting more deaths than everyone else!!!!

Surely if they were trying to do that they would be reporting a vastly lower figure wouldn't you think???

I'm sure you don't think before you post sometimes in your haste to have a pop at the government all the time.

Todays deaths -

Hospitals - 19 for England, Wales and Scotland

14:49

Further 19 people die across England and Wales
A further 19 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in England and Wales, the latest figures show.

There were 14 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours by NHS England, taking the total who have died in hospital from the virus to 29,317. Nine of the deaths were recorded in the Midlands.

In Wales, there were five further deaths, according to Public Health Wales, taking the total there to 1,554.

Scotland recorded no new deaths for the 13th day in a row, while Northern Ireland also recorded no deaths from the virus.

The UK figures will be published separately and differ due to recording over a different time period and based on different criteria.

Overall reported deaths - 83

16:26
Latest UK figures show 83 more Covid-19 related deaths
A further 83 people have died from Covid-19 associated deaths in the UK, according to government figures.

It takes the total deaths associated with the pandemic to 45,961.

There have been 763 more lab-confirmed cases across the UK, taking the total number of cases to 301,455.

These figures use data from Public Health England, which is currently reviewing its methodology after it was found to be including people who tested positive months before they died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53577222

So if there are 83 deaths reported and only 19 from hospitals, then 64 deaths must have occurred somewhere else, which presumably have been from care homes and hospices and probably happened a few days back and only discovered as Corvid when tested after death - and may well not have been the actual cause of death.

That's my reasoning anyway.

Sluffy wrote:Todays deaths -

Hospitals - 19 for England, Wales and Scotland

14:49

Further 19 people die across England and Wales
A further 19 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in England and Wales, the latest figures show.

There were 14 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours by NHS England, taking the total who have died in hospital from the virus to 29,317. Nine of the deaths were recorded in the Midlands.

In Wales, there were five further deaths, according to Public Health Wales, taking the total there to 1,554.

Scotland recorded no new deaths for the 13th day in a row, while Northern Ireland also recorded no deaths from the virus.

The UK figures will be published separately and differ due to recording over a different time period and based on different criteria.

Overall reported deaths - 83

16:26
Latest UK figures show 83 more Covid-19 related deaths
A further 83 people have died from Covid-19 associated deaths in the UK, according to government figures.

It takes the total deaths associated with the pandemic to 45,961.

There have been 763 more lab-confirmed cases across the UK, taking the total number of cases to 301,455.

These figures use data from Public Health England, which is currently reviewing its methodology after it was found to be including people who tested positive months before they died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53577222

So if there are 83 deaths reported and only 19 from hospitals, then 64 deaths must have occurred somewhere else, which presumably have been from care homes and hospices and probably happened a few days back and only discovered as Corvid when tested after death - and may well not have been the actual cause of death.

That's my reasoning anyway.

Interesting theory although it's predicated on figures which very few people have any faith in - especially as the numbers conflict with the government's own "excess deaths" figure which puts covid-related deaths at over 60k so far.

Registered deaths are undeniable, government spin on the other hand.....

I found myself getting pissed off with a bloke at the petrol station today who waltzed in with his young daughter without wearing a face mask. The signs were clear, every other customer was covered up but the staff seemed unprepared to ask him to leave - presumably because he'd already filled his car with petrol? Or that they were kids and he was a man?
I just think it's ridiculous that the government hands responsibility for enforcement of the "guidelines" (NB guidelines not laws!) to retail staff. 

That chimes with the new survey cited by Together (NHS,employers etc) that suggests the upturn in community unity experienced during lockdown is starting to fray at the edges again. I for one am not happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives.

wanderlust wrote:I found myself getting pissed off with a bloke at the petrol station today who waltzed in with his young daughter without wearing a face mask. The signs were clear, every other customer was covered up but the staff seemed unprepared to ask him to leave - presumably because he'd already filled his car with petrol? Or that they were kids and he was a man?
I just think it's ridiculous that the government hands responsibility for enforcement of the "guidelines" (NB guidelines not laws!) to retail staff. 

That chimes with the new survey cited by Together (NHS,employers etc) that suggests the upturn in community unity experienced during lockdown is starting to fray at the edges again. I for one am not happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives.

No one is happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives but what can you do, put a policeman in every shop or something?

Any law or 'guidelines' are only workable if they are strictly enforced (see China) or accepted and adopted by the vast majority of people, which to be fair most here do.

Clearly there's a growing number of younger people who don't think the rules apply to them (and also know that the virus won't kill them) and san fairy ann to the rest of us!

The bottom line is that the virus is only a very big problem for the old and/or sick and the rest know that they will be ok, so why should their lives be turned upside down for us old farts and cripples.

They do have a point though.

It is what it is and all us old farts and the sick can only try to understand the risks and minimise them in our own particular circumstances until someone comes up with a vaccine or something to save us because we really can't expect the world to stop turning just to protect us.

wanderlust wrote:Interesting theory although it's predicated on figures which very few people have any faith in - especially as the numbers conflict with the government's own "excess deaths" figure which puts covid-related deaths at over 60k so far.

Registered deaths are undeniable, government spin on the other hand.....

Don't you mean you and your mates on social media don't have any faith in!

There are three methods of measuring deaths, the daily notifications from the government, the number of death certificates that mention Covid and excess deaths, the last two are from the ONS which is independent of the government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

The totals to the 29th July are (rounded up)
46,000
56,000 and,
64,000

Why would the government 'spin' a lower number when they and everybody else knows the ONS is daily stating higher ones???

Clearly initial figures that the government give daily are subject to incompleteness (not every hospital or wherever the community GP's report to) files their reports daily and obviously they are prone to human error.

Similarly 'excess deaths' will include those who have sadly died, not because of Covid directly but because their other illnesses have not been able to be treated properly whilst the pandemic as been on going.

It would therefore seem logical that Covid deaths are somewhere in between the two totals with the death certificate total of 56,000 being as good as any.

Apparently 616,000 people died in the UK two years ago - 2018.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

The difference between the death certificate total of 56,000 and the governments daily total of 46,000 being around 10,000 which is arguably about the true totalish?

So if 620,000 (rounded up) died in a full year in 2018, then something like 310,000 died in half the year (yes I know the deaths are seasonally effected but lets take 310,000 as a reasonable total)

The Covid total is up to the end of July but as if we take off two months for January and Feb when nothing much happened Covid death wise then we are talking about 10,000 deaths in a similar 6 months period.

So 10,000 divided by 310,000 multiplied by 100 = gives a margin of error rate of just 3.22%.

Higher than one would like but completely understandable under the circumstances of all the pandemic entails.

So no, I don't believe the government are trying to spin the death totals even though the nutjobs on Twitter and Facebook believe they are!

Sluffy wrote:

wanderlust wrote:I found myself getting pissed off with a bloke at the petrol station today who waltzed in with his young daughter without wearing a face mask. The signs were clear, every other customer was covered up but the staff seemed unprepared to ask him to leave  I for one am not happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives.

No one is happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives but what can you do, put a policeman in every shop or something?

Any law or 'guidelines' are only workable if they are strictly enforced (see China) or accepted and adopted by the vast majority of people, which to be fair most here do.

Clearly there's a growing number of younger people who don't think the rules apply to them (and also know that the virus won't kill them) and san fairy ann to the rest of us!

The bottom line is that the virus is only a very big problem for the old and/or sick and the rest know that they will be ok, so why should their lives be turned upside down for us old farts and cripples.

They do have a point though.

It is what it is and all us old farts and the sick can only try to understand the risks and minimise them in our own particular circumstances until someone comes up with a vaccine or something to save us because we really can't expect the world to stop turning just to protect us.

Just thought I'd update this a bit, called in on my Tesco local, or whatever they are called - the corner shop size ones not the big super store ones.

I last went in just 3 days ago and everybody was wearing a mask, this evening I counted 7 who hadn't, one of whom was someone I know well enough to nod and say hello to and - this is the bit that got me - saw me on my last visit just three days previous - and asked me where my mask was!!!  (I was just literally  getting out of the car and hadn't had time to put it on - he had one of those super duper mask type things with what looked like filters to me).

So in just three days he'd gone from protector of the people to couldn't give a fuck!

He's about my age as well!

Is it any wonder that a second wave is on its way here?

Went to Morrisons tonight and only saw one person without a mask. The people of Preston are so far taking this seriously.

On the downside, there were only 2 multipacks of Twirls left.

Sluffy wrote:

Just thought I'd update this a bit, called in on my Tesco local, or whatever they are called - the corner shop size ones not the big super store ones.

I last went in just 3 days ago and everybody was wearing a mask, this evening I counted 7 who hadn't, one of whom was someone I know well enough to nod and say hello to and - this is the bit that got me - saw me on my last visit just three days previous - and asked me where my mask was!!!  (I was just literally  getting out of the car and hadn't had time to put it on - he had one of those super duper mask type things with what looked like filters to me).

So in just three days he'd gone from protector of the people to couldn't give a fuck!

He's about my age as well!

Is it any wonder that a second wave is on its way here?

So what's your solution?

wanderlust wrote:

Sluffy wrote:

Just thought I'd update this a bit, called in on my Tesco local, or whatever they are called - the corner shop size ones not the big super store ones.

I last went in just 3 days ago and everybody was wearing a mask, this evening I counted 7 who hadn't, one of whom was someone I know well enough to nod and say hello to and - this is the bit that got me - saw me on my last visit just three days previous - and asked me where my mask was!!!  (I was just literally  getting out of the car and hadn't had time to put it on - he had one of those super duper mask type things with what looked like filters to me).

So in just three days he'd gone from protector of the people to couldn't give a fuck!

He's about my age as well!

Is it any wonder that a second wave is on its way here?

So what's your solution?

Do it the 'China' way or accept that there isn't a solution and plan the best you can to work around it. I tend to shop through the week when it is a bit quieter and do it out of town at smaller local shops where I reckon the neighbourhood is more likely to be patronised by people more likely to follow the 'rules' than those who don't.  Tonight I went a bit later, around sevenish, thinking it would be ok too - and to be fair the majority did have masks, but I was taken aback that in just 3 days I would say about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 hadn't!

Fwiw the score was 2 white faces and 5 black faces and the age range was from a youth to a pensioner!

You've got to bear in mind though that 80/90% (possibly more) of the people going about their business won't be aversely effected if they did catch the virus, it's only the likes of us who will be, so there's not really much incentive for them to wear masks, keep 1m plus and lockdown when told, etc.

In a way I'm grateful that so many people, the vast majority, so far are, but that will wear off as and when the bother of doing so out ways their fear of catching the virus as it 'only kills the old and sick fuckers' - which unfortunately it does!

This made me laugh - action being taken in Greater Manchester, east Lancashire and west Yorkshire starting midnight Thursday.

Also the Muslim festival of Eid (for those who don't know there are two each year) starts from midnight Thursday -


Miqdaad Versi, spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain, said the restrictions were likely to have a "large impact" on Muslim families celebrating Eid on Friday.

"Unclear why such short notice provided but important that this message is cascaded as quickly as possible given it goes live within a few hours," he tweeted.

I think I know why, pretty obvious really but no one can say for fear of being labelled a racist.

The fear is that the spread will increase rapidly with all the social mingling and celebrating from the Asian community tomorrow if allowed to go ahead, where the problem is largely present already.

Sluffy wrote:This made me laugh - action being taken in Greater Manchester, east Lancashire and west Yorkshire starting midnight Thursday.

Also the Muslim festival of Eid (for those who don't know there are two each year) starts from midnight Thursday -


Miqdaad Versi, spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain, said the restrictions were likely to have a "large impact" on Muslim families celebrating Eid on Friday.

"Unclear why such short notice provided but important that this message is cascaded as quickly as possible given it goes live within a few hours," he tweeted.

I think I know why, pretty obvious really but no one can say for fear of being labelled a racist.

The fear is that the spread will increase rapidly with all the social mingling and celebrating from the Asian community tomorrow if allowed to go ahead, where the problem is largely present already.

Going by the general tone and selectiveness of your posts on this subject to date I'm surprised that you're upset at the thought of people spreading the virus in their communities. Let's hope the community leaders have a sensible plan in place to deal with it.

..and so it begins....
Question is when will the government enforce it? 
You can apparently go to the pub but you can't have the next door neighbours or your kids round to yours.
Question: Can you meet the neighbours and/or your kids in the pub? 


Whatever.

wanderlust wrote:Going by the general tone and selectiveness of your posts on this subject to date I'm surprised that you're upset at the thought of people spreading the virus in their communities. Let's hope the community leaders have a sensible plan in place to deal with it.

Not exactly sure what you are getting at there but if you are implying I'm racist (which I believe you are) then you best think again.

I've lived and worked for the large bulk of my life and career in authorities with high levels of multi-ethnicity, cultures and communities and I know many good people of all religions, skin colours and political views - I know a fair few bad ones too.

I don't judge people by their colour, I judge them by their actions.

It's blindingly obvious that the measures are because of Eid tomorrow (well today now!) and I would hazard a well educated guess, that the announcement wasn't made earlier for fear of stoking up potential racial tensions.  The announcement at the last minute is a fait accompli, and no doubt put across along the lines that the government had no choice in view of positive test data leading up to this decision having to be taken now.

I also take serious offence at your clear implication that I would want the virus spreading in the Muslim community in particular - I wish ill on no man - not even you.

I'll tell you straight though, anymore of your racist slurs against me and you'll be gone - I'm not going to be tolerating that shit from anyone.