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When we were in a poor run I wrote the following...
"The way fortune plays a role.
Bolton average something like 15 shots per match, quite high but less than 5 hit the target.
Statistically we would usually get 1.67 goals per game based on those stats, and our shots against would concede us 1.38 goals per game. That's usually enough to win more games than you lose or draw.
By a stroke of misfortune our conversion stats for actual goals are reversed. Meaning we concede around 1.67 and score 1.38.
Statistically speaking, if we keep doing what we are doing, eventuality the trend should even out and revert to expected levels (assuming things level out on average over a season).
This would mean that our next 16 games would net us 26 points all things being equal.
If I said we will lose 1 out of every four matches for the rest of the season. But win at least one, sometimes two out of every four, would you take it?
(If you assume we can improve, which many on here think we can, then we can get even more than that)"
***
At the time I wrote the above people were calling for Evatt out.
We are now 15 league matches into that prediction and we have taken 23 points.
So if we win on Saturday we are bang on track for gaining the expected number of points per match for our performances! (Over the course of the whole season so far).
And I don't mean we should be getting so many points all of the time. I mean, the trend has evened itself out and our recent form has negated our poor run, thus we now have about the right amount of points for the season that our productivity has deserved.
"The way fortune plays a role.
Bolton average something like 15 shots per match, quite high but less than 5 hit the target.
Statistically we would usually get 1.67 goals per game based on those stats, and our shots against would concede us 1.38 goals per game. That's usually enough to win more games than you lose or draw.
By a stroke of misfortune our conversion stats for actual goals are reversed. Meaning we concede around 1.67 and score 1.38.
Statistically speaking, if we keep doing what we are doing, eventuality the trend should even out and revert to expected levels (assuming things level out on average over a season).
This would mean that our next 16 games would net us 26 points all things being equal.
If I said we will lose 1 out of every four matches for the rest of the season. But win at least one, sometimes two out of every four, would you take it?
(If you assume we can improve, which many on here think we can, then we can get even more than that)"
***
At the time I wrote the above people were calling for Evatt out.
We are now 15 league matches into that prediction and we have taken 23 points.
So if we win on Saturday we are bang on track for gaining the expected number of points per match for our performances! (Over the course of the whole season so far).
And I don't mean we should be getting so many points all of the time. I mean, the trend has evened itself out and our recent form has negated our poor run, thus we now have about the right amount of points for the season that our productivity has deserved.
