The Statistics that matter...or not

It's not clear if it was Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli who first came up with the idea that there are "lies, damned lies and statistics" but we have plenty of reason to hope that the latest "Fink Tank" figures are exactly the kind of thing being discredited in the famous quote.

If you're not familiar with the Times football statistician's work you should know that Finkelstein employs a team of highly qualified analysts to measure every pass, blade of grass covered, completion, goal, corner, free kick etc in every game to calculate odds - you name it, they measure it. And as time goes by they add more data and refine their model more and more - and they've been doing it for at least 10 years, possibly a lot longer.

The accuracy of their predictions is pretty good when looking at an individual fixture. Obviously there are upsets but for the most part they're accurate and it's fairly obvious that their efforts are monitored by the bookies who set the odds accordingly.

So today they've completed their work forecasting every fixture of the upcoming season using (and I quote) "two years of goals and shots on goal in a model that has ben updated this year to improve it's already strong record of identifying probabilities".

This has been used to calculate chances of promotion and relegation and it makes very grim reading for us BWFC fans - as if we didn't already know we're crap. Here is the table of PROMOTION chances:
Norwich 49%
Wolves 28.5%
Cardiff 27.3%
Boro 24%
Rovers 22.3%
Derby 21.5%
Brighton 17.9%
Forest 16.5%
Watford 14.8%
Bournemouth 13.7%
Fulham 11.3%
Charlton 10.3%
Reading 10.1%
Ipswich 7.5%
Sheff W 5.9%
Huddersfield 5.5%
Millwall 3%
Wigan 2.3%
Brum 2.3%
Rotherham 2.2%
Brentford 2.1%
BOLTON 1.6%
Leeds 0.6%
Blackpool 0%

So there we are nestled in just below Brentford.
But the bad news doesn't stop there.

We may only have a 1.6% chance of promotion but we have a very strong 25% chance of dropping another division according to Finkelstein's team.

Yes that's 25% folks - 3rd favourites for the drop behind Blackpool (75%)  and Leeds (38%).

But it's not all bad news. 

No matter how complex the statistical model is at the end of the day this is  football - and the stats are entirely based on history - what has happened in the past. OK it's the recent past but it's still the past.

For me, the only thing the stats are good for is giving some context for our expectations - and in that sense the mid-table finish prediction I made pre-season is looking a tad optimistic.

Just hope that the lads prove the nerds wrong.

finkelstein's are right

luckyPeterpiper wrote:finkelstein's are right

Maybe on the relegation % they are about right but the promotion % is about 1.6% to high.

I want to go down start again,young blood a forward thinking manager and I'd rather see us start a young team winning in the 3 rd tier n going like Southampton all the way to the premiership.
I'm not enjoying watching DF mind numbing football I used to love it on a Friday weekend the match.Now it's a pain going,knowing that we will more than likely lose or draw 6 wins at home out of 23 and so far 1 point. It's the fact we give the ball away in midfield have no possession n that's why the defence leaks goals and in Lonerghan we do not trust.
Bogdan hopefully will be patched up for our next match he made a world class save before the goal.Then when he got injured Lonerghan stood on his line as a cross which he should of come for was heading in to the net but Spearing cleared it off the line.According to the commentator on GMR he should have done better with their second gonna look on Sky now.Just watched Everton throw away a 2-0 lead with 8 minutes to go.

Who remembers going Goodisan n winning 4-0 WTF went wrong Garslime??

White84 wrote:I want to go down start again,young blood a forward thinking manager and I'd rather see us start a young team winning in the 3 rd tier n going like Southampton all the way to the premiership.

That's all very well and good but we haven't got the players in the youth academy to do what Southampton did IMO, plus all this wanting us to go down and start again - a lot of fans said that when we got relegated from the prem....didn't work out too well.

Look at Fulham. They're not quite in the same position but there are massive similarities between our clubs. They've spent a load of dosh in the prem (over roughly the same period we have and with a similar degree of success) and have had to sell off most of their high earners like we have.

Now I know they spent £11 million on one player (Ross McCormack) and they still have Scott Parker in the middle but apart from that Magath has gone with youth.

I think they had 6 (yes that's SIX) youngsters and/or promoted development squad players in their team on Saturday and they got thrashed 5 - 1 by Derby.

Very brave from Magath but bear in mind that he is an incredibly experienced manager who has managed top teams like Hamburg, Bayern and Schalke 04 as well as struggling teams like Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen and has a brilliant managerial record. I remember him as a player - top player too.

Perhaps he's right. Perhaps in blooding the youngsters early and being prepared to take a few hammerings he'll toughen them up and get them streetwise earlier. The fans will hate it and call for his blood, but maybe it's the best thing for the club?

Because if he can rebuild the team with young players and put them through a very steep learning curve it is potentially the best thing that could happen. A new competitive squad at a bargain basement price. Too risky a strategy for Dougie I reckon - at least at this stage.

Did you really go to the pub tonight?

You seem frighteningly lucid and you're still talking a lot of sense.

I never do that when I'm drunk.

I just shout "Kebab....now!" and then fall over.

What's the secret?

(PS.....and your spelling and punctuation are still spot on. That can't be right.....)

Breadman wrote:

What's the secret?

Always mix Stella with Merlot.

wanderlust wrote:

Breadman wrote:

What's the secret?

Always mix Stella with Merlot.

Your beginning to sound like Magoo.

That can't taste good surely, red wine mixed with lager.

Your having us on aren't you!?

Strangely enough I tend to put them in separate glasses.

But they all end up in the same bowl.

It's magic.

I seem to have walked into that one!     

Currently I'm just drinking Merlot which is very nice but going down far too easily. I have the munchies but can't be arsed to do anything about it. There's nothing in the fridge "snack -wise" and I would be dangerous cooking. Only one thing for it. Merlot.

You must have a loaf knocking about?

Try the breadbin.

Toast is the panacea that cures all ills.

With cheese on.

Trust me, I know bread.......

Or how about simply phoning up for a kebab or is that too easy?

Statistics: Nearest kebab shop 2 miles. Deliveries 0. Chances of driving?  

No bread in the house but had a burrito when I got in. Unfortunately that was around 2 hours ago.