Farage steps down

scottjames30 wrote:Article 50 will be invoked, it has to, they'll be public uproar if it doesn't.

If we had another referendum tomorrow, leave would still win, despite all the scaremongering and threats of what could happen.

The chicken dipper eaters, Jeremy Kyle watching wanted change, and won!!!

I think the vote to Leave was a total disaster but scott is right, there's no way Parliament will block the invocation of Article 50. It would be political suicide for anyone who voted to stop it, especially in England. The fact that Farage and Johnson have run away from the mess they helped to create like the cowards they are is irrelevant. The vote was held, the British people had their say and whether they regret it or not now is beside the point.

Just substitute the word "Farage" in your head every time Jim says "Trump":

scottjames30 wrote:Article 50 will be invoked, it has to, they'll be public uproar if it doesn't.

If we had another referendum tomorrow, leave would still win, despite all the scaremongering and threats of what could happen.

The chicken dipper eaters, Jeremy Kyle watching wanted change, and won!!!

Voting should be means tested from now on after the stupid comments some of the leavers have come out  with. They're too stupid to admit they fcuked up and therein lies the rub!
Even heard one twat say we should open the mines up again, we don't need any experience to do it!?
BTW public uproar? What amongst 17 million, not counting the Lemmings that have decided not to jump now, out of the 44 that could vote, doubt it tbh, though it would be nice to see what would happen if it came to pass.

luckyPeterpiper wrote:

scottjames30 wrote:Article 50 will be invoked, it has to, they'll be public uproar if it doesn't.

If we had another referendum tomorrow, leave would still win, despite all the scaremongering and threats of what could happen.

The chicken dipper eaters, Jeremy Kyle watching wanted change, and won!!!

 It would be political suicide for anyone who voted to stop it, especially in England. T

True but it will be economic suicide if they do and I'm not sure there's the will to cut off our nose to spite our face.

Or rather that I doubt there will be the will to invoke Article 50 after the current negotiations have advanced a bit further and whoever becomes leader is faced with the reality of the deal we are likely to get.

Unless it's a glory-hunter like May who is willing to put their own political career ahead of the national interest.

Would Leave voters kick off if we don't?

Possibly not as yesterday's published consumer confidence index showed that Leave voters confidence in the economy has fallen by 5 points since the referendum (Remain voters confidence -13 points) which in itself would justify a second referendum if we genuinely want to capture the new post-referendum mood of the country.

A third of voters believe prices will rise sharply over the next 12 months (increase of 20%) and this lack of confidence is putting further pressure on the pound.

Add that to the mounting problems with the pound, the cost of oil that we now have to buy in (thanks Maggie) falling house prices, rising retail prices and anticipated job losses etc and I imagine that Theresa May is desperately hoping there's some way to get a second vote because she knows damn well that the country won't make the same mistake again given the chance.

You mean like Johnson and Gove Lusty?

Soul Kitchen wrote:You mean like Johnson and Gove Lusty?

Who?

Glory hunters, selves before the good of others, Johnson and Gove and that knob uncle Nige?

wanderlust wrote:

luckyPeterpiper wrote:

scottjames30 wrote:Article 50 will be invoked, it has to, they'll be public uproar if it doesn't.

If we had another referendum tomorrow, leave would still win, despite all the scaremongering and threats of what could happen.

The chicken dipper eaters, Jeremy Kyle watching wanted change, and won!!!

 It would be political suicide for anyone who voted to stop it, especially in England. T

True but it will be economic suicide if they do and I'm not sure there's the will to cut off our nose to spite our face.

Or rather that I doubt there will be the will to invoke Article 50 after the current negotiations have advanced a bit further and whoever becomes leader is faced with the reality of the deal we are likely to get.

Unless it's a glory-hunter like May who is willing to put their own political career ahead of the national interest.

Would Leave voters kick off if we don't?

Possibly not as yesterday's published consumer confidence index showed that Leave voters confidence in the economy has fallen by 5 points since the referendum (Remain voters confidence -13 points) which in itself would justify a second referendum if we genuinely want to capture the new post-referendum mood of the country.

A third of voters believe prices will rise sharply over the next 12 months (increase of 20%) and this lack of confidence is putting further pressure on the pound.

Add that to the mounting problems with the pound, the cost of oil that we now have to buy in (thanks Maggie) falling house prices, rising retail prices and anticipated job losses etc and I imagine that Theresa May is desperately hoping there's some way to get a second vote because she knows damn well that the country won't make the same mistake again given the chance.

Lusty, You make some good points there but I would raise two that require a lot more discussion

a) the referendum was non binding and the will of the vast majority of MPs is against leaving. Is it automatically the case that they will accept the result and vote through the removal from the statute book of the legislation which allowed us to join in the first place. I think there is a real possibility that that might not happen. Cameron says that he will accept the result- but he's finished. Whatever he says is equally non-binding on his successor

b) ..and this is a serious question. Should that happen, and Parliament refuses to endorse the outcome of a non binding  referendum, what would happen next? Would there be a legal challenge invoked by the Leave campaign(now effectively leaderless). Would there be  another general election (May says no!). Would there be riots  in the streets. I think there would be a lot of mouthing off but little else.

So what are you saying rammy , it will be Invoked?

Soul Kitchen wrote:So what are you saying rammy , it will be Invoked?

No - I'm just asking the question. The longer it takes to trigger Article 50 ,the more chance there is that it might not happen. SNP will vote against Brexit and it depends on how many  others join them If the MPs are whipped then legislation will be passed. But if a free vote is given then there's no guarantee that it will.
What then? What would Brexiteers do. I wish I knew the answer

rammywhite wrote:

Soul Kitchen wrote:So what are you saying rammy , it will be Invoked?

No - I'm just asking the question. The longer it takes to trigger Article 50 ,the more chance there is that it might not happen. SNP will vote against Brexit and it depends on how many  others join them If the MPs are whipped then legislation will be passed. But if a free vote is given then there's no guarantee that it will.
What then? What would Brexiteers do. I wish I knew the answer

It will be a three line whip (meaning attendance and voting with the party leadership will be mandatory) and Article 50 will be invoked no more than a month after the new PM is installed. Make no mistake about this, the Tory heartland support is England, especially the South and with the exception of half of London they voted massively for Leave. Scotland is a lost cause to the Tories and they know it. There'll be an independence referendum there before the next General Election and this time the SNP will stroll to victory thanks to the EU vote. Neither May nor Leadsom will spend anything but the barest possible minimum of time campaigning up there because they'll want to keep the heartland, especially the Home Counties and Shires happy. A failure to invoke Article 50 by either of them would be political suicide of the stupidest kind and neither of them are stupid in that sense. There is no way around this mate, we ARE leaving the EU and we can't do a thing now to change it. Cameron was a twit for calling the referendum in the first place and it almost certainly means the end of the UK as we know it to boot but it's done. All that remains is to dot the i's and cross the t's. Whether or not it will be enough to drive the tories out in 2020 will depend on just hos catastrophic things get domestically between now and then. I suspect May or Leadsom will do their best to string out exit negotiations as long as possible once they are invoked but it could well be that it's not enough.

The government have ( officially said ) the British people have voted and article 50 will be happening, they respect the vote, no U turn, it's very exciting.

Farage will go down in history as the man that saved Great Britain, Cameron will go down in history as a quitter, and just another bare bum in the shower.

scottjames30 wrote:The government have ( officially said ) the British people have voted and article 50 will be happening, they respect the vote, no U turn, it's very exciting.

Farage will go down in history as the man that saved Great Britain, Cameron will go down in history as a quitter, and just another bare bum in the shower.

Because Farage really stuck it out didn't he? He stood tall and proud and took a lead in the negotiations that "saved" Britain from the EU and ... oh dear, that's not quite the case is it.

Farage lied and twisted everything to create the biggest mess in British History, most likely destroyed the UK itself then ran for the hills and left everyone else to clean up the mess he, Boris and Gove created. Well maybe Boris will .... ah, right, he quit too. OK, Michael Gove could ... oops, he got his arse kicked by his own party after stabbing not one but two of his supposed 'friends' in the back.

Yes, Farage was a truly great man and led this country into the promised land .... if you believe that may I recommend you consult a good psychiatrist very soon and take whatever medication he/she suggests.

scottjames30 wrote:The government have ( officially said ) the British people have voted and article 50 will be happening, they respect the vote, no U turn, it's very exciting.

Farage will go down in history as the man that saved Great Britain, Cameron will go down in history as a quitter, and just another bare bum in the shower.

The government haven't really said that- Cameron said it, and he's finished. Both Denmark (the Maastricht treaty) and Ireland (the Lisbon treaty) have had referendums ,the results of which weren't enacted- in both cases they were overturned by a later referendum.

Consider this as a possible scenario. Teresa May is elected as leader of the Tories and becomes de facto Prime Minister. She brings legislation forward (which she doesn't really support personally, as she's opposed to leaving) to withdraw from the EU. The Tories are whipped to support it ,but there are some whose constituencies voted to remain and  hence a couple of dozen Tories vote against.  The DUP will vote to remain as they did in the Province and Sinn Fein will abstain. There are some out and out rebels already on the Tory back benches who don't care about their popularity as they're as safe as houses in their constituencies
Corbyn (still leader of Labour) allows a free vote (because he doesn't care about political popularity either)  and because Len McCluskey the leader of Unite and the real power in the Labour party tells him to. The SNP are whipped to oppose Brexit also. It is conceivable that Teresa May's legislation is defeated- in other words Brexit is rejected by parliament.
Don't tell me it can't happen- because it can!
What then?
Another resignation? Blood on the streets? Another referendum?
Already some European governments are saying (at high levels) that they actually think there's a reasonable chance that we'll stay.
It might be political suicide for some politicians to reject the result of the referendum- but they might not care and might just vote with their conscience/personal opinion.
 It might sound fanciful- but there's a serious reality underpinning this, that the will of Parliament is not the same as the will of the people- and in reality the people are impotent in trying to do anything about this- until the next election in 2020.

I see your point but I think you're wrong about some small things. Sinn Fein won't abstain on this one. They'll vote solidly to remain in the EU even though it means siding with the unionists. On this one issue they're on the same side and I expect to see no abstentions at all from Ulster. The SNP will vote Remain to a man(or woman as the case may be) and the Lib Dems will do the same.

Unfortunately it won't be enough. Theresa May (assuming she wins the leadership election) will be the de jure PM not de facto. The first thing she will do is attend HM the Queen and be commissioned to form a government. That's going to be a largely "leave" cabinet simply because most of the Tories from the South in particular were in the leave camp and she'll need to put on at least a show of unity and healing the divides in the party the referendum showed up in excrutiating detail.

Article 50 will be invoked because whatever May says she will HAVE to respect the referendum result or face a revolt within her own party. She's not that stupid politically and the Tories have a solid enough majority within the house to win by themselves. No one, not even the Tories in super safe seats will vote against it because they know they'll be de-selected by their constituency if they do.

In fact whether May or Leadsom wins the truth is they won't hold any power on this issue. The grass roots of their main support went with Leave and there's no one out there who wants to lose their nice cushy job as an MP. I suspect we'll see a number of Labour MPs from the North West and North East voting Leave too because their constituency parties will insist on it. Basically the House of Commons will by and large vote on the same lines as the country did. I don't like it, I think it's sheer lunacy but Article 50 will be invoked, probably in early 2017.

Just bought a where's Farage ( remember Wally ) off EBay, in a bidding war for a signed photo at the minute , it'll be worth a fortune in ten years time.

LPP-I think we'll simply have to wait to see what happens but I think there are some points that you make which need more clarity. Firstly I don't think Sinn Fein will vote at all as they haven't taken up their seats and will need to take the Parliamentary oath ( basically an oath of allegiance to the Crown) which they have and will refuse to do.
I also don't think that Teresa May will need to visit the Queen and be asked to form a government. That takes place after a General Election- and not with a change of leader. There is already a government in place  and its merely personnel who are changing. The Tories remain the majority party.

If MPs are told by their constituency parties  how to vote or be de-selected that opens the door to wholesale voting against the proposals by all parties. It opens a much bigger can of worms. Its more likely that they'll be whipped and that may cause problems in terms of obeying the whip or disobeying local constituency party demands, or vice versa.

You're right-Teresa May is not a fool and she could well bring forward legislation, and if defeated could still turn to the country and say that she did what the referendum asked her to do. Its the fact that legislation needs to be brought forward to remove the European Act from the statute book- and if Parliament rejects that then legally she cannot invoke Article 50. Mishcon de Reya ( the lawyers) have established that legislation is required before any Government can even attempt to trigger withdrawal, and that might prove to be the stumbling block. Parliament might not approve that legislation.
No matter what side you're on,there's still a lot to play for and I,for one, am not 100% convinced that we will be leaving. The probability is that we are,but the possibility is that we're not

scottjames30 wrote:Just bought a where's Farage ( remember Wally ) off EBay, in a bidding war for a signed photo at the minute , it'll be worth a fortune in ten years time.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/NIGEL-FARAGE-UKIP-LEADER-PP-8x10-MOUNTED-SIGNED-AUTOGRAPH-PHOTO-SECRET-SANTA-/112046374356?hash=item1a167bfdd4:g:YwUAAOSwt6ZWUcj3

Buy one for under a fiver.


JC going for around £30

I think that timing is everything as regards Article 50.
From the minute the referendum was over negotiations started in earnest and in effect the process has become a huge risk-assessment exercise.
The more they learn about the likely deals Britain will be able to strike with potential partners the more they'll know about the economic impact of invoking A50.

I can't imagine a new leader invoking A50 without consulting with the negotiators first (although given recent events, it's not an impossible scenario) and whatever they say should guide what the leader does next.

The current delay is down to the time it takes to work out what we are letting ourselves in for and whilst A50 should be a shoo-in in theory, if the prospects for Britain are as dire as many experts predict, the leader will be looking for ways to avoid invocation.

Obviously, if the negotiators say there is hope for Britain outside the EU - even if it's only a slim hope - A50 will be invoked. The leader will only consider alternatives such as a second referendum on the basis of new information only if the negotiators categorically state we are f****d and can back it up with facts.

Terrible position to be in and it's not surprising that the people who caused the problem have run a mile.

In a way, the leadership election is providing the breathing space needed to find out what Brexit will really mean for the UK - a possibly unintentional smart move from Cameron?

Whatever happens, at least half the country is going to be pissed off, but if they are given the facts - undisputable facts this time - then at least they'll feel the decision is being made with eyes wide open.