Whites Survival Scrap

Fantastic result yesterday with an unexpected and yet much needed 3 points against Villa.

We're getting to stage of the season when I expect one or two of the relegation threatened clubs will start to pick up points out of pure fear of the drop. Additionally, before long we'll start to see the comfortable mid-table clubs getting complacent, giving some of their squad players a run out, and dropping points to the teams around us.


No Easy Games

Burton (A) will likely be relegated by the time we meet them. This won't be easy with them playing for pride in front of their fans in their last home game. 

Barnsley (A) fighting for their lives, and with a tough run in (Bristol City, Sheff Utd, Ipswich, Brentford, Derby) will see their home game against us as their best opportunity to pick up 3 points.

Birmingham, who will no doubt be much improved under Gary Monk, will look at their upcoming games against Bolton (A) and Burton (H) as an opportunity to drag themselves out of the bottom three and gather some momentum before their difficult run-in (Ipswich, Bristol City, Wolves, Sheff Utd, Fulham). Let's hope Wolves and Fulham are still taking it seriously then because I think they're going to survive.


Goal Difference

THREE of the past 5 Championship relegation battles have been decided on goal difference with Blackburn relegated on 51 points last season!

2016/17 Season
Nottingham Forest survived with 51 points (-10)
Blackburn relegated with 51 points (-12)

2015/16 Season
Rotherham survived on 49 points
Charlton relegated on 40 points

2014/15 Season
Rotherham survived with 46 points
Millwall relegated on 41 points

2013/14 Season
Birmingham survived with 44 points (-16)
Doncaster relegated on 44 (-31)

2012/13 Season
Barnsley survived with 33 points (-19)
Birmingham relegated on 33 points (-29)

Our Goal Difference column does not make good reading and is unlikely to change with our approach to each game. Only Birmingham and Burton have scored less goals than us.

Today's GD Column:
19. Sheffield Wednesday -11
18. Hull -6
19. Bolton -23
20. Reading -13
21. Barnsley -19
22. Birmingham -29
23. Burton -40
24. Sunderland -30


8 Games To Go

Although Sunderland and Burton look dead and buried, there's still a massive 24 points for everyone else to play for.

How many points do you Nutters predict we'll pick up from out remaining fixtures? Let's do our best to get 8 or 9 comments in before someone mentions fanny farts.

Leeds (A)
Birmingham (H)
Derby (A)
Millwall (H)
Barnsley (A)
Wolves (H)
Burton (A)
Forest (H)

I can't see us picking up many points away from home - but Birmingham, Millwall & Forest at home are all winnable.

I reckon we can get 10 points from that lot- easily enough to keep us up.

As long as we dick Leeds, I'll be happy.

You named yourself after Leeds. What a gobshite.

Looking at the fixtures for Bolton, Hull, Reading, Barnsley and Brum:

I would guess the following:

Hull pick up 12 points for a total of 51

Brum pick up 10 points for a total of 43

Reading pick up 9 points for a total of 45

Barnsley pick up 10 points for a total of 43

Bolton pick up a conservative 8 points for a total of 47

Assuming Sundy and Burton are relegated...

Our chances of staying up seem pretty good.  Saying that we hope that Barnsley and Brum don't go on a 4 game winning streak.  I also assumed a loss by Bolton to Barnsley (the conservative approach) and with the way we played yesterday, we could hope to pick up 13 or more points in the remaining 8 games (the optimistic approach).  

Let's hope we can get to 50 and breathe easily in our final two games this season.

Birmingham and Barnsley average 0.86 points per game. Even if they achieved 1.5 points over the 8 games left then they would finish on 45 points.

So two wins and a draw would be enough even if they perform. If we beat Birmingham then that would be even better.

Like Nat says we have 3 winnable home matches and we should be looking to take something from Burton and Barnsley and maybe Leeds away. For me if we beat Birmingham Barnsley and Burton its all over, at the very least we need to avoid defeat in those games.

Wolves and away at Derby are the only fixtures where you can confidently say that there is a difference in class. We should be capable of picking up points regularly from all the other fixtures.

Leeds A - Fallen away badly after a bright start, got a proper Yorkshire twat in but thus far they have not improved significantly. Get our noses in front there and the home support will be on them. 1point.

Blues H - Have some decent players so this could be tricky if they win on the Saturday before they come to us, Jota and Juke could be a threat, having said that we have beaten Cardiff, Villa and Bristol City who are all better than Brum. 3 points.

Derby A - Our recent performance s in the East Midlands have been shite and we have had several good hidings at Derby, Leicester and Forest, Derby are having there annual dropping out of the Play Offs run of results but will make an exception when we turn up. Need to avoid a thrashing even if we lose. 0 points.

Millwall H  They have been winning away a lot but their record at ours is awful, Morrison and Gregory are a good partnership, we may have to settle for a point. 1 point

Barnsley A - Another tricky fixture, they seem to create a lot of chances but lack a finisher, also suspect at the back. With a disciplined performance we can nick this, but may come away with nought. 0 points

Wolves H - Our best hope is that they are promoted and have the title wrapped up, otherwise it might become a damage limitation exercise Might be celebrating promotion at ours which won't be good hopefully it will only be a point they need and we share them but we should lose this. 0 points

Burton A - Have been a bit of a bogey team for us in the couple times we have played them at home, fortunately this is away, Lloyd Dyer will be injured or suspended and we claim a rare away win. 3 points.

Forest H - Hopefully our Championship status will already be assured and we play out an entertaining victory. 3 points


So 11 more in all, should be enough, Brum are likeliest to pull away, I would be worried if Barnsley or Reading fan. We aren't there yet but it's close.

Can' see Barnsley winning to many games as they have only won 2 games all season that weren't against Birmingham, Sunderland or Burton.

So if we get 3 wins I'm sure we will have enough points to secure survival.

I'd love to think that all the teams around us will continue to crash and burn but from this position our biggest enemy is complacency.

wanderlust wrote:I'd love to think that all the teams around us will continue to crash and burn but from this position our biggest enemy is complacency.

It really isn't.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

wanderlust wrote:I'd love to think that all the teams around us will continue to crash and burn but from this position our biggest enemy is complacency. In my opinion.

It really isn't.

Sorry - I've rephrased that for you.
And it really is my opinion.

24.