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Wanderers go into their must-win game against Nottingham Forest with nothing like a settled line-up this weekend.
Phil Parkinson has chopped and changed since the international break in an effort to find the magic formula, thus far without success.
But though plenty of onlookers at Burton Albion disagreed with the team selection at Burton Albion last weekend, agreeing on what IS Bolton’s best line-up is an almost impossible exercise.
We decided to crunch the numbers and examine what was – at least statistically speaking – the most successful 11 players Parkinson could put out against Forest.
Formation-wise, it is seemingly a toss-up between four and five at the back.
Parkinson has used 4-2-3-1, or subtle variances thereof, on 27 occasions this season. Five at the back – or at least three centre-halves – have been used 18 times.
Wanderers have a higher success rate with a back four, winning 22 per cent of their games. They also have a superior scoring rate, averaging 0.92 goals per game.
In comparison, five at the back has yielded a 16 per cent win rate and an average of 0.61 goals per game.
Based purely on win percentage, we then decided to look at the players, only taking into account those who have started seven games or more.
In goal, Ben Alnwick has had the edge over Mark Howard for the majority of the season and is many supporters’ pick for player of the year. That is underlined by the fact he has won 28 per cent of the 40 games he has been involved in – a relatively high number in comparison to many of his team-mates. Howard, for example, has not been on the winning side in any of his eight games this season.
At the back it is a close-run thing. Right-sided Mark Little has a better record than Jon Flanagan, 28 per cent win-rate against 13, and Antonee Robinson (25 per cent) shades Andy Taylor (20) on the left. Whether Little or Robinson can be considered pure full-backs and played together in a four-man defence has been a matter of debate. With both in the side, Wanderers have been shown to have a better win-rate, the figure rising from 22 per cent to 29 per cent.
In the middle, Mark Beevers and Reece Burke (both 22 per cent) shade David Wheater (19) and Dorian Dervite (21). It is hard to ascertain which is the most successful two-man partnership, although the most regular – Beevers and Wheater – has an overall success rate of 20 per cent.
If Parkinson sticks with his two holding midfielders, then Karl Henry (28) and Darren Pratley (26) have the best return. Derik Osede (25) and Jem Karacan (13) would miss out in that instance.
Further forward, Josh Vela has the best return as an attacking central midfielder, Bolton winning 26 per cent of games he has started for them.
Wide options produce some rather surprising results. Wanderers have won 38 per cent of games where Will Buckley has started, for example. Craig Noone, one of the few to emerge from the Burton defeat with credit, has not been on the winning team in six attempts and is exempt from our criteria.
Sammy Ameobi (24) and Filipe Morais (12) complete the feasible options available to Parkinson this weekend.
Up front, Adam Le Fondre is the only front man to start more than seven games, and has a 13 per cent win rate.
Source
Phil Parkinson has chopped and changed since the international break in an effort to find the magic formula, thus far without success.
But though plenty of onlookers at Burton Albion disagreed with the team selection at Burton Albion last weekend, agreeing on what IS Bolton’s best line-up is an almost impossible exercise.
We decided to crunch the numbers and examine what was – at least statistically speaking – the most successful 11 players Parkinson could put out against Forest.
Formation-wise, it is seemingly a toss-up between four and five at the back.
Parkinson has used 4-2-3-1, or subtle variances thereof, on 27 occasions this season. Five at the back – or at least three centre-halves – have been used 18 times.
Wanderers have a higher success rate with a back four, winning 22 per cent of their games. They also have a superior scoring rate, averaging 0.92 goals per game.
In comparison, five at the back has yielded a 16 per cent win rate and an average of 0.61 goals per game.
Based purely on win percentage, we then decided to look at the players, only taking into account those who have started seven games or more.
In goal, Ben Alnwick has had the edge over Mark Howard for the majority of the season and is many supporters’ pick for player of the year. That is underlined by the fact he has won 28 per cent of the 40 games he has been involved in – a relatively high number in comparison to many of his team-mates. Howard, for example, has not been on the winning side in any of his eight games this season.
At the back it is a close-run thing. Right-sided Mark Little has a better record than Jon Flanagan, 28 per cent win-rate against 13, and Antonee Robinson (25 per cent) shades Andy Taylor (20) on the left. Whether Little or Robinson can be considered pure full-backs and played together in a four-man defence has been a matter of debate. With both in the side, Wanderers have been shown to have a better win-rate, the figure rising from 22 per cent to 29 per cent.
In the middle, Mark Beevers and Reece Burke (both 22 per cent) shade David Wheater (19) and Dorian Dervite (21). It is hard to ascertain which is the most successful two-man partnership, although the most regular – Beevers and Wheater – has an overall success rate of 20 per cent.
If Parkinson sticks with his two holding midfielders, then Karl Henry (28) and Darren Pratley (26) have the best return. Derik Osede (25) and Jem Karacan (13) would miss out in that instance.
Further forward, Josh Vela has the best return as an attacking central midfielder, Bolton winning 26 per cent of games he has started for them.
Wide options produce some rather surprising results. Wanderers have won 38 per cent of games where Will Buckley has started, for example. Craig Noone, one of the few to emerge from the Burton defeat with credit, has not been on the winning team in six attempts and is exempt from our criteria.
Sammy Ameobi (24) and Filipe Morais (12) complete the feasible options available to Parkinson this weekend.
Up front, Adam Le Fondre is the only front man to start more than seven games, and has a 13 per cent win rate.
Source