Relegation Watch

538 now has us at 41% for relegation.  I can understand why.  When is Ameobi due back?  We have two games before the next international break.  At this workrate, we will be bottom three once again by Christmas (or before).

What’s 538?

T.R.O.Y wrote:What’s 538?

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Nate Silver is an American statistician and writer who has a business of predicting elections and now offers football predictions as well. American television giant ESPN bought the site but it has since gone to ABC, another American network (both are owned by Disney).  Silver crunches hard numbers to give his predictions.  Last year, I found they did the same for the Championship.  Unfortunately for us, losing to bottom teams pushes us further toward relegation than we would like.

Who did he predict to get relegated/promoted last year out of interest?

T.R.O.Y wrote:Who did he predict to get relegated/promoted last year out of interest?

It changes every week... after every game in fact.  We were at the bottom of their list for a long time.  Then with our winning streak, we went to long odds to get relegated.  Then our April/May form saw us slide each and every game, until the last game, when we escaped somehow.

So basically he "predicts" the three teams at the bottom will go down, unless they get out of the bottom three, then he changes it to the current bottom 3.  And his site got purchased by espn?  Fucking yanks, gotta love em!

y2johnny wrote:So basically he "predicts" the three teams at the bottom will go down, unless they get out of the bottom three, then he changes it to the current bottom 3.  And his site got purchased by espn?  Fucking yanks, gotta love em!

Ye, not exactly impressive is it.

You are off the mark here since you are looking for a tout who makes predictions.  This is not a predictor, rather a real time look at where you stand and what the odds of going up or down are.  It is merely number crunching... so a loss vs Hull today is very damaging to your overall position.  You lost against weak opposition and the numbers today reflect that. Goals for and against are weighed against the strength of the team you played. 

Nate Silver and 538 does the same thing with politics... showing the odds day by day on who will win the House or Senate.  It's a tool, not a predictor of the season.  

538 comes from the number of electors who vote in a presidential election.

The only tool is anyone buying into this. Look at when these tools correctly predicted remain....or a conservative landslide victory......or Leicester getting relegated......