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Wanderers are ‘outperforming’ their expected goals figures in League One this season, according to the data experts.
The Whites are currently seventh after last weekend’s goalless draw at Cambridge, yet they are only behind fifth-place Portsmouth on goal difference.
However, the data claims that Ian Evatt’s men should actually be 10th in the table and have two fewer points at this stage.
Expected goals are calculated based on the number of chances each side creates and concedes per game, as well as the quality of those opportunities.
In general terms, this means that if a team is underperforming their figures, they are usually wasteful in the final third.
Plymouth are currently four points clear at the top of the table, yet the Pilgrims sit in 14th place based on expected goals figures.
Oxford sit third in the table, yet the data that suggests Karl Robinson’s side should be in the top three based on the chances they have created.
The figures also suggest that 15th-place Port Vale and ninth-place Exeter should both be in the play-off places, while Accrington Stanley should also be much higher than their current position.
MK Dons, who finished third last season after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion on the final day, sit at the bottom of the hypothetical table.
Elsewhere in the division, the likes of Portsmouth, Barnsley and Derby are also ‘outperforming’ their expected goals figures.
Here is the full League One table based on expected goals figures from the season so far
1. Ipswich (37 pts)
2. Sheff Wed (32 pts)
3. Oxford (30 pts)
4. Peterborough (29 pts)
5. Port Vale (29 pts)
6. Exeter (27 pts)
7. Portsmouth (27 pts)
8. Derby (27 pts)
9. Accrington (26 pts)
10. Wanderers (26 pts)
11. Barnsley (26 pts)
12. Charlton (25 pts)
13. Wycombe (25 pts)
14. Plymouth (24 pts)
15. Bristol Rovers (23 pts)
16. Burton (23 pts)
17. Shrewsbury (22 pts)
18. Cambridge (22 pts)
19. Cheltenham (20 pts)
20. Fleetwood (20 pts)
21. Lincoln (19 pts)
22. Forest Green (16 pts)
23. Morecambe (15 pts)
24. MK Dons (15 pts)
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Wanderers are ‘outperforming’ their expected goals figures in League One this season, according to the data experts.
The Whites are currently seventh after last weekend’s goalless draw at Cambridge, yet they are only behind fifth-place Portsmouth on goal difference.
However, the data claims that Ian Evatt’s men should actually be 10th in the table and have two fewer points at this stage.
Expected goals are calculated based on the number of chances each side creates and concedes per game, as well as the quality of those opportunities.
In general terms, this means that if a team is underperforming their figures, they are usually wasteful in the final third.
Plymouth are currently four points clear at the top of the table, yet the Pilgrims sit in 14th place based on expected goals figures.
Oxford sit third in the table, yet the data that suggests Karl Robinson’s side should be in the top three based on the chances they have created.
The figures also suggest that 15th-place Port Vale and ninth-place Exeter should both be in the play-off places, while Accrington Stanley should also be much higher than their current position.
MK Dons, who finished third last season after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion on the final day, sit at the bottom of the hypothetical table.
Elsewhere in the division, the likes of Portsmouth, Barnsley and Derby are also ‘outperforming’ their expected goals figures.
Here is the full League One table based on expected goals figures from the season so far
1. Ipswich (37 pts)
2. Sheff Wed (32 pts)
3. Oxford (30 pts)
4. Peterborough (29 pts)
5. Port Vale (29 pts)
6. Exeter (27 pts)
7. Portsmouth (27 pts)
8. Derby (27 pts)
9. Accrington (26 pts)
10. Wanderers (26 pts)
11. Barnsley (26 pts)
12. Charlton (25 pts)
13. Wycombe (25 pts)
14. Plymouth (24 pts)
15. Bristol Rovers (23 pts)
16. Burton (23 pts)
17. Shrewsbury (22 pts)
18. Cambridge (22 pts)
19. Cheltenham (20 pts)
20. Fleetwood (20 pts)
21. Lincoln (19 pts)
22. Forest Green (16 pts)
23. Morecambe (15 pts)
24. MK Dons (15 pts)
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