Home
Ian Evatt is taking some solace from statistics as his side looks to push through a difficult spell of scoring form in League One.
The Wanderers boss maintains that the data he has reviewed this season points to a team that ‘should’ be scoring more goals than it has managed.
And furthermore, Evatt says the dry spell currently being endured by some of his players is out of sync with what they have done in the past.
Most of the numbers indicate Bolton are winning possession, keeping it, and progressing the ball quickly into the right areas of the pitch – with one exception, the back of the net.
But Evatt has faith that is about to change.
“All I can really lead people towards is the data and the statistics,” he said of the negative response to some recent performances.
“If you look at chance creation, we have created better chances than most in this league. We are getting into the final third a lot, getting into opponent’s boxes a lot, and it is just that end product. The end product isn’t the build phase, it is literally just the final bit – the shot.
“All I can say is the strikers we’ve got, we have looked at historical data with them all.
“They are all having a pretty rough time and an off spell compares to the rest of their careers, so we have to keep faith that it is going to turn around for them soon. If it does, I think we will go on a really good run of form, score lots of goals and these conversations will be long in the past.
“But for now, it is just keep them positive, keep doing the things we are doing but just be better at them.”
Wanderers are one of only a few teams in League One whose XG – expected goals – from open play is higher than the number they have actually scored. In layman’s terms, that means the data says Evatt’s side should be scoring more than they currently are, given the quality of chances they are creating.
The Bolton boss is well aware that XG and the like can be a hard sell but he is confident that if his side can persist, those numbers will eventually make better reading.
“Realistically, we have to be respectful that not all fans are going to understand the ins and outs of the game,” he said of the difficulty of using XG.
“When a team is not scoring goal, they will perceive that as ‘they are not doing things right, they are not creating enough, it’s the system, they are too defensive, they have got the best defensive record but are not scoring enough goals’. They put two and two together and come up with five.
“That is just how it is. But that is not the case.
“We are doing a lot of things right, that’s the bottom line. I think we are probably 75 or 80 per cent there, but it is that last 15 or 20 percent which will really define if we are in the top six positions come the end of the season.
“I think we will be and I think we can be, but we also know that we have got to put those little bits right.”
Source