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Way back in the summer sun of Portugal, Wanderers captain Ricardo Santos set the tone for a more understated promotion chase.
“We all know what we can do,” he told The Bolton News, “but it is no use talking about it, saying we will do this, or we will do that. It has to happen out there on the pitch.”
Compared to the bombast and bluster of the year before – where a newly-promoted Bolton side and their manager seemed to drop their top-two intentions into every interview – this year’s message has been one of calmness and efficiency.
The target was to ensure the club was ‘in the mix’ by the time the January transfer window arrived.
“December is generally the time for movers and shakers,” said Evatt at the start of the month. “You have a good month, a good Christmas, and it can put you in the right position for the rest of the year.
“We have talked about it and I have set them a points total that we are aiming for by January and hopefully we can reach that.”
There were plenty of onlookers willing to write off the automatic promotion spots as a closed shop between Ipswich Town, Plymouth Argyle and Sheffield Wednesday after 20 games. Wanderers trailed the top two by 12 points after their disappointing defeat at Shrewsbury Town but this last weekend might have put a different slant on things.
Neither Ipswich nor Sheffield Wednesday managed to win their respective games, while Wanderers, Barnsley, Derby County and Wycombe all took full advantage. The gap between Bolton (on 35 points) and the top two after 21 games is now 10 points, and they also have a game in hand.
Chasing promotion has never been a straightforward matter at Wanderers, and given the current team’s penchant for the dramatic, we should expect nothing less.
Five of the club’s last six promotions has been secured on the final day, or via a play-off final, so those supporters with longer memories will know there will be twists and turns to come.
The current points-per-game total is 1.66, which if continued for the remainder of the campaign would give Bolton another 42 points, putting them on 77, a total which has been enough to secure fifth or sixth spot in five of the last six non-Covid affected seasons.
Having kept the club in touch with the leaders, Evatt has every reason to be confident. His team’s points return has been better in the second half of each of the last two seasons.
In 2020/21, they were 11 points off the automatic promotion spots after 21 games. They took 28 points from their first 23 games but then an incredible 51 from the next 23 games to claim third spot behind Cheltenham Town and Cambridge United.
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At the 21-game mark they had just been beaten 1-0 at home by Crawley. Wanderers had generally struggled for goals but in a curious quirk the struggling team then sat 17th in the table on January 4, 2021, had managed to score just one fewer than Evatt’s current side.
The difference defensively was stark. Evatt’s side had conceded 33 goals by the New Year, including six against Port Vale, had issues with goalkeeper changes, toggled between back three and flat back four, along with an ongoing power struggle at the top over recruitment, eventually won and resolved with the appointment of Chris Markham that month.
Bolton’s current side have shipped just 19 goals. Squad rotation had been the talk of the town early in the campaign but has since slowed. Tactically, Evatt has now established a method and shape which he trusts, with personnel familiar with what is being asked of them.
The second half upturn continued last year too. Bolton garnered 26 points from their first 23 games but then 47 from the remaining half of their fixture list. Once again the January window was used to maximum effect – Dion Charles, Aaron Morley, James Trafford, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Kyle Dempsey et al – but despite the big points swing they still finished 10 behind the play-offs and 17 from the top two.
Casting our minds back a little further to the previous five promotions at Wanderers – automatic or otherwise – the club has always been ‘in the mix’ at the halfway stage. Here we take a look at how many points and goals they had managed by this point to see how the current side’s situation measures up.
2016/17: Phil Parkinson’s side sat third behind Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United with 46 points from 23 games.
They would overturn the one-point deficit on the automatic spots with a thrilling 2-1 win against the Irons on New Year’s Eve, courtesy of James Henry’s injury time strike.
Wanderers would take fewer points (40) from the second half of the season, allowing the Blades to race away with the title, but they added more goals with the signing of Adam Le Fondre and Fil Morais, which eventually proved the difference.
2000/01: Sam Allardyce’s Wanderers eventually claimed promotion to the Premier League via the play-offs, and by the halfway stage of the season were second in the table, two points behind the leaders Fulham, with 45 points.
The second half of the campaign would bring 42 points, enough for third spot, with Blackburn Rovers finishing second.
Big Sam’s Wanderers remained remarkably consistent over the two halves of the season scoring 38 goals in either case and conceding 23.
1996/97: Colin Todd’s team led from the front for virtually the whole season but curiously, at the 23-game mark, they had slipped just behind Sheffield United into second spot.
With 42 points, including nine drawn games, there wasn’t quite the air of invincibility about Todd’s team that would eventually come to the fore. The second half of the campaign would yield a massive 56 points, with 54 goals scored and 21 conceded.
1994/95: Bruce Rioch would lead Bolton into the Premier League via a thrilling play-off win against Reading at Wembley. By the halfway stage of the season in Division One they were fifth with 37 points – two points behind Tranmere Rovers in the only automatic spot.
The situation changed quickly, however, with Bolton in action at Sunderland on Boxing Day – Mixu Paatelainen’s goal earning a 1-1 draw – and then again on December 27 against Tranmere, a game won 1-0 with a solitary Alan Thompson effort.
Wanderers would up their game in the second half of the season, taking 40 points, but it was only enough to finish third, two points behind Reading and five behind Middlesbrough.
1992/93: Rioch’s first promotion was often a case of playing catch-up, and by the 23-game mark the club sat sixth in the table with 38 points, trailing second-placed West Brom by seven.
The Midlanders had played a game more and it would eventually be Potteries pair Port Vale and Stoke who made the running. But Wanderers put in another herculean total in the second half of the season, registering 52 points from their last 23 games to grab the last automatic spot on the final day of the season with victory against Preston North End.
Interestingly, that late surge involved fewer goals scored. John McGinlay, Andy Walker and Co added 43 in the first half of the season but 37 in the latter. Defensively things improved dramatically, with only 15 goals conceded in the last 23 games compared to 26 in the first half of the campaign.
The conclusion
Wanderers have kept their promotion intention quite well hidden so far but secretly, Ian Evatt will fancy his chances of clawing back the gap on the top two. He has a fine recruitment record in January and has stated that he will be bringing in signings which will make an immediate difference, rather than just to boost numbers.
This stretch of fixtures leading up to mid-January will go a long way to deciding if they have any chance – Derby (twice), Barnsley, Plymouth and Portsmouth are all up there fighting with the same targets.
Past history has shown Evatt’s side do well in the second half of the season but looking at the examples set by the teams of Rioch and Todd in particular, it may well require a significant improvement over the final 23 games if they are to even come close to an automatic spot.
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Way back in the summer sun of Portugal, Wanderers captain Ricardo Santos set the tone for a more understated promotion chase.
“We all know what we can do,” he told The Bolton News, “but it is no use talking about it, saying we will do this, or we will do that. It has to happen out there on the pitch.”
Compared to the bombast and bluster of the year before – where a newly-promoted Bolton side and their manager seemed to drop their top-two intentions into every interview – this year’s message has been one of calmness and efficiency.
The target was to ensure the club was ‘in the mix’ by the time the January transfer window arrived.
“December is generally the time for movers and shakers,” said Evatt at the start of the month. “You have a good month, a good Christmas, and it can put you in the right position for the rest of the year.
“We have talked about it and I have set them a points total that we are aiming for by January and hopefully we can reach that.”
There were plenty of onlookers willing to write off the automatic promotion spots as a closed shop between Ipswich Town, Plymouth Argyle and Sheffield Wednesday after 20 games. Wanderers trailed the top two by 12 points after their disappointing defeat at Shrewsbury Town but this last weekend might have put a different slant on things.
Neither Ipswich nor Sheffield Wednesday managed to win their respective games, while Wanderers, Barnsley, Derby County and Wycombe all took full advantage. The gap between Bolton (on 35 points) and the top two after 21 games is now 10 points, and they also have a game in hand.
Chasing promotion has never been a straightforward matter at Wanderers, and given the current team’s penchant for the dramatic, we should expect nothing less.
Five of the club’s last six promotions has been secured on the final day, or via a play-off final, so those supporters with longer memories will know there will be twists and turns to come.
The current points-per-game total is 1.66, which if continued for the remainder of the campaign would give Bolton another 42 points, putting them on 77, a total which has been enough to secure fifth or sixth spot in five of the last six non-Covid affected seasons.
Having kept the club in touch with the leaders, Evatt has every reason to be confident. His team’s points return has been better in the second half of each of the last two seasons.
In 2020/21, they were 11 points off the automatic promotion spots after 21 games. They took 28 points from their first 23 games but then an incredible 51 from the next 23 games to claim third spot behind Cheltenham Town and Cambridge United.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
At the 21-game mark they had just been beaten 1-0 at home by Crawley. Wanderers had generally struggled for goals but in a curious quirk the struggling team then sat 17th in the table on January 4, 2021, had managed to score just one fewer than Evatt’s current side.
The difference defensively was stark. Evatt’s side had conceded 33 goals by the New Year, including six against Port Vale, had issues with goalkeeper changes, toggled between back three and flat back four, along with an ongoing power struggle at the top over recruitment, eventually won and resolved with the appointment of Chris Markham that month.
Bolton’s current side have shipped just 19 goals. Squad rotation had been the talk of the town early in the campaign but has since slowed. Tactically, Evatt has now established a method and shape which he trusts, with personnel familiar with what is being asked of them.
The second half upturn continued last year too. Bolton garnered 26 points from their first 23 games but then 47 from the remaining half of their fixture list. Once again the January window was used to maximum effect – Dion Charles, Aaron Morley, James Trafford, Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, Kyle Dempsey et al – but despite the big points swing they still finished 10 behind the play-offs and 17 from the top two.
Casting our minds back a little further to the previous five promotions at Wanderers – automatic or otherwise – the club has always been ‘in the mix’ at the halfway stage. Here we take a look at how many points and goals they had managed by this point to see how the current side’s situation measures up.
2016/17: Phil Parkinson’s side sat third behind Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United with 46 points from 23 games.
They would overturn the one-point deficit on the automatic spots with a thrilling 2-1 win against the Irons on New Year’s Eve, courtesy of James Henry’s injury time strike.
Wanderers would take fewer points (40) from the second half of the season, allowing the Blades to race away with the title, but they added more goals with the signing of Adam Le Fondre and Fil Morais, which eventually proved the difference.
2000/01: Sam Allardyce’s Wanderers eventually claimed promotion to the Premier League via the play-offs, and by the halfway stage of the season were second in the table, two points behind the leaders Fulham, with 45 points.
The second half of the campaign would bring 42 points, enough for third spot, with Blackburn Rovers finishing second.
Big Sam’s Wanderers remained remarkably consistent over the two halves of the season scoring 38 goals in either case and conceding 23.
1996/97: Colin Todd’s team led from the front for virtually the whole season but curiously, at the 23-game mark, they had slipped just behind Sheffield United into second spot.
With 42 points, including nine drawn games, there wasn’t quite the air of invincibility about Todd’s team that would eventually come to the fore. The second half of the campaign would yield a massive 56 points, with 54 goals scored and 21 conceded.
1994/95: Bruce Rioch would lead Bolton into the Premier League via a thrilling play-off win against Reading at Wembley. By the halfway stage of the season in Division One they were fifth with 37 points – two points behind Tranmere Rovers in the only automatic spot.
The situation changed quickly, however, with Bolton in action at Sunderland on Boxing Day – Mixu Paatelainen’s goal earning a 1-1 draw – and then again on December 27 against Tranmere, a game won 1-0 with a solitary Alan Thompson effort.
Wanderers would up their game in the second half of the season, taking 40 points, but it was only enough to finish third, two points behind Reading and five behind Middlesbrough.
1992/93: Rioch’s first promotion was often a case of playing catch-up, and by the 23-game mark the club sat sixth in the table with 38 points, trailing second-placed West Brom by seven.
The Midlanders had played a game more and it would eventually be Potteries pair Port Vale and Stoke who made the running. But Wanderers put in another herculean total in the second half of the season, registering 52 points from their last 23 games to grab the last automatic spot on the final day of the season with victory against Preston North End.
Interestingly, that late surge involved fewer goals scored. John McGinlay, Andy Walker and Co added 43 in the first half of the season but 37 in the latter. Defensively things improved dramatically, with only 15 goals conceded in the last 23 games compared to 26 in the first half of the campaign.
The conclusion
Wanderers have kept their promotion intention quite well hidden so far but secretly, Ian Evatt will fancy his chances of clawing back the gap on the top two. He has a fine recruitment record in January and has stated that he will be bringing in signings which will make an immediate difference, rather than just to boost numbers.
This stretch of fixtures leading up to mid-January will go a long way to deciding if they have any chance – Derby (twice), Barnsley, Plymouth and Portsmouth are all up there fighting with the same targets.
Past history has shown Evatt’s side do well in the second half of the season but looking at the examples set by the teams of Rioch and Todd in particular, it may well require a significant improvement over the final 23 games if they are to even come close to an automatic spot.
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