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Last Saturday (28th February 2015) was Neil Lennon’s 26th match in all competitions as Bolton Wanderers manager. We won a rather scrappy encounter one nil thanks to a goal from Clough that, thanks to other results gave us a welcome breathing space between ourselves and the bottom three in the Championship. Now, while relegation is not yet impossible I do think it’s become exceedingly unlikely and as a result I thought this would be a good time to post my thoughts on how our manger is doing.
The results have been something of a mixed bag. In fact Neil’s record to date is :
Played 26 Won 11 Drawn 6 Lost 9 to give him a win percentage of 42.31%
During Neil’s tenure since he joined us in October 2014 we have moved away from the relegation zone to 14th, dropped back to 19th and at one point today could have been 20th but now sit 17th in the Championship where we appear to be likely to hold steady. Given where we were and how we were performing prior to his arrival it could be argued that this constitutes a success for the Northern Irishman and that he will now have a foundation to build on in the summer to try and push up the league towards the play offs or even automatic promotion in the 2015/16 season.
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It could also be argued that he hasn’t shown the improvement we all hoped for and many expected by the fact we’re not in the top half of the table now much less pushing for a play off place. Some fans on this very forum, myself included did in fact believe that to be a genuine possibility until as late as mid-January.
So is Neil succeeding or failing? Is a win ratio of 42% a sign that things are going to get better or has the recent woeful run simply shown us that he’s peaked already? Personally I think it’s more likely to be the former than the latter but some people would disagree.
However there’s more to be said for a manager’s impact than a simple look at bare statistics will ever tell us. Football, like so many sports and other forms of entertainment is often a subjective rather than objective experience where the mood is at least as important as the results. A classic case would be a comparison of Owen Coyle and Gary Megson. Both men finished 14th in the prem in their first full season in charge and the points total was very similar but look at the whole picture and you’ll see a huge difference in how the results were perceived.
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Under Megson the mood was foul, darker than at any time I can remember in almost 40 years of following the trotters. The football was dire, the manager had branded us ‘pathetic’ and we’d spent all season nervously eyeing the drop zone until the 36th game. Megson spent more money than any previous BWFC manager had ever been given and while he did buy some very good players he immediately proved he had no idea how to use them or motivate them. He constantly bigged himself up with the mantra ‘We were below Derby when I came in’ when he wasn’t busy telling us that ‘Football People know what a good job I’m doing’ which suggested he believed the fans knew nothing and weren’t entitled to an opinion anyway. By the end of that horror show season I took the painful step of refusing to renew my season ticket for the first time in 21 years and I didn’t set foot in the Macron (Reebok) Stadium again while Megson was the manager. When he finally went on ‘gardening leave’ there was mass delight amongst BWFC fans almost everywhere after a dark period that seemed to threaten a permanent split between them and the club itself.
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Contrast that to Owen Coyle. Under Coyle we all still felt very optimistic and were for the most part enjoying the football. The black spot was the FA Cup semi-final against Stoke but generally we agreed it had been an excellent and entertaining season where European qualification had been a real possibility until about March when tired legs and a thin squad caught up with us. Sure Owen had been a bit naïve tactically sometimes but he’d gone out to play attacking and exciting football and at least we’d never needed to look over our shoulders at the relegation zone. Of course we all know what followed but even at the end when the axe fell no one really wished Owen ill. We felt sorry it hadn’t worked out because he was a decent guy who’d done his best by us. It turned out not to be good enough but no one threw parties because he was sacked.
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We then got Dougie Freedman, a man who I knew very little about as a manager when he came onboard. He started out well, so well we thought we were going to get into the play offs at his first attempt but then the match against Blackpool killed that dream and made many of us begin to question Dougie’s abilities. His team selection and tactics for that day still baffle me now. The following season he played a Megson-esque brand of football that led to our worst start in over a century, saw us hammered 7-1 by Reading and spend most of the season looking at the possibility of League One football. It became clear to all of us over that season that Dougie only knew one approach and that he seemed incapable of motivating players over a long term. Loanees came to our rescue and performed superbly for the second season on the trot but the writing was already there on the wall for all to see. It wasn’t quite as bad as the rift between club and fans that happened in Megson’s time but it was definitely heading that way and when he started this season just as badly if not worse than last it really was only a matter of time before he had to go.
This brings us to Neil Lennon. He isn’t performing miracles but neither is he dragging us all down into a mire of depression either. What he’s done so far is bring back some spark and entertainment wherever possible but he’s also handicapped by a wafer thin squad and zero budget that means even the greatest manager would have a hard time making us promotion contenders. The injury list is horrific, the squad has no strength in depth and there’s no real expectation that we will be buying big in the summer. And yet I and many others feel cautiously optimistic because for all the barriers he faces Neil is getting the results we need when we need them. Take Saturday's game, it was essential that we got that win especially after the last few games on the road had left us teetering on the brink of being dragged back into the dogfight. We got it, maybe not prettily but we got the three points that allow us all to breathe a little easier today.
For my money Neil is the best manager we’ve had since Sam Allardyce and like the big man himself he knows how to adapt his game plan to suit out strengths and exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. When we’ve lost under him it’s not been the system at fault, it’s just we don’t have much in the way of quality available right now. If I was a Headmaster giving him a progess report I’d give Neil a solid B+ for his work so far. It’s improving the club but there’s plenty more work to be done. However I do feel that if anyone can do it then that man is Neil Lennon. He’s got the mix of brains, nerve, skill and luck that any manager needs to be successful. Come the summer we’ll get back most if not all of those currently on the sick list and with that nucleus to build around and promising youngsters like Clough finally getting a real chance to shine I think we’ll see a very different start to the term than the last two. I have genuine faith that Neil can do it and more importantly will do it.
The results have been something of a mixed bag. In fact Neil’s record to date is :
Played 26 Won 11 Drawn 6 Lost 9 to give him a win percentage of 42.31%
During Neil’s tenure since he joined us in October 2014 we have moved away from the relegation zone to 14th, dropped back to 19th and at one point today could have been 20th but now sit 17th in the Championship where we appear to be likely to hold steady. Given where we were and how we were performing prior to his arrival it could be argued that this constitutes a success for the Northern Irishman and that he will now have a foundation to build on in the summer to try and push up the league towards the play offs or even automatic promotion in the 2015/16 season.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
It could also be argued that he hasn’t shown the improvement we all hoped for and many expected by the fact we’re not in the top half of the table now much less pushing for a play off place. Some fans on this very forum, myself included did in fact believe that to be a genuine possibility until as late as mid-January.
So is Neil succeeding or failing? Is a win ratio of 42% a sign that things are going to get better or has the recent woeful run simply shown us that he’s peaked already? Personally I think it’s more likely to be the former than the latter but some people would disagree.
However there’s more to be said for a manager’s impact than a simple look at bare statistics will ever tell us. Football, like so many sports and other forms of entertainment is often a subjective rather than objective experience where the mood is at least as important as the results. A classic case would be a comparison of Owen Coyle and Gary Megson. Both men finished 14th in the prem in their first full season in charge and the points total was very similar but look at the whole picture and you’ll see a huge difference in how the results were perceived.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Under Megson the mood was foul, darker than at any time I can remember in almost 40 years of following the trotters. The football was dire, the manager had branded us ‘pathetic’ and we’d spent all season nervously eyeing the drop zone until the 36th game. Megson spent more money than any previous BWFC manager had ever been given and while he did buy some very good players he immediately proved he had no idea how to use them or motivate them. He constantly bigged himself up with the mantra ‘We were below Derby when I came in’ when he wasn’t busy telling us that ‘Football People know what a good job I’m doing’ which suggested he believed the fans knew nothing and weren’t entitled to an opinion anyway. By the end of that horror show season I took the painful step of refusing to renew my season ticket for the first time in 21 years and I didn’t set foot in the Macron (Reebok) Stadium again while Megson was the manager. When he finally went on ‘gardening leave’ there was mass delight amongst BWFC fans almost everywhere after a dark period that seemed to threaten a permanent split between them and the club itself.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Contrast that to Owen Coyle. Under Coyle we all still felt very optimistic and were for the most part enjoying the football. The black spot was the FA Cup semi-final against Stoke but generally we agreed it had been an excellent and entertaining season where European qualification had been a real possibility until about March when tired legs and a thin squad caught up with us. Sure Owen had been a bit naïve tactically sometimes but he’d gone out to play attacking and exciting football and at least we’d never needed to look over our shoulders at the relegation zone. Of course we all know what followed but even at the end when the axe fell no one really wished Owen ill. We felt sorry it hadn’t worked out because he was a decent guy who’d done his best by us. It turned out not to be good enough but no one threw parties because he was sacked.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
We then got Dougie Freedman, a man who I knew very little about as a manager when he came onboard. He started out well, so well we thought we were going to get into the play offs at his first attempt but then the match against Blackpool killed that dream and made many of us begin to question Dougie’s abilities. His team selection and tactics for that day still baffle me now. The following season he played a Megson-esque brand of football that led to our worst start in over a century, saw us hammered 7-1 by Reading and spend most of the season looking at the possibility of League One football. It became clear to all of us over that season that Dougie only knew one approach and that he seemed incapable of motivating players over a long term. Loanees came to our rescue and performed superbly for the second season on the trot but the writing was already there on the wall for all to see. It wasn’t quite as bad as the rift between club and fans that happened in Megson’s time but it was definitely heading that way and when he started this season just as badly if not worse than last it really was only a matter of time before he had to go.
This brings us to Neil Lennon. He isn’t performing miracles but neither is he dragging us all down into a mire of depression either. What he’s done so far is bring back some spark and entertainment wherever possible but he’s also handicapped by a wafer thin squad and zero budget that means even the greatest manager would have a hard time making us promotion contenders. The injury list is horrific, the squad has no strength in depth and there’s no real expectation that we will be buying big in the summer. And yet I and many others feel cautiously optimistic because for all the barriers he faces Neil is getting the results we need when we need them. Take Saturday's game, it was essential that we got that win especially after the last few games on the road had left us teetering on the brink of being dragged back into the dogfight. We got it, maybe not prettily but we got the three points that allow us all to breathe a little easier today.
For my money Neil is the best manager we’ve had since Sam Allardyce and like the big man himself he knows how to adapt his game plan to suit out strengths and exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. When we’ve lost under him it’s not been the system at fault, it’s just we don’t have much in the way of quality available right now. If I was a Headmaster giving him a progess report I’d give Neil a solid B+ for his work so far. It’s improving the club but there’s plenty more work to be done. However I do feel that if anyone can do it then that man is Neil Lennon. He’s got the mix of brains, nerve, skill and luck that any manager needs to be successful. Come the summer we’ll get back most if not all of those currently on the sick list and with that nucleus to build around and promising youngsters like Clough finally getting a real chance to shine I think we’ll see a very different start to the term than the last two. I have genuine faith that Neil can do it and more importantly will do it.
