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The dividing line between success and failure for Wanderers has become a thin one thanks to Tuesday night’s defeat at Accrington Stanley.
By 5pm on Saturday afternoon the Whites could be celebrating a play-off place, and for that to happen Peterborough United would need to trip up at home to Bristol Rovers and Ian Evatt’s men rediscover their scoring touch to beat Fleetwood.
Conversely, fans may be looking anxiously towards next weekend’s game at Bristol Rovers and wondering whether a campaign that has promised so much will actually fizzle out prematurely.
The time for hypothesis and equations are almost through. This weekend’s game may be the last occasion, for example, that Bolton fans get to see James Trafford or Conor Bradley in action before they return to Manchester City or Liverpool, respectively.
The two loan players have grown up in front of their eyes, this season and last in Trafford’s case, but will not want their farewell to a stadium that has been so supportive to end on a note of uncertainty.
Trafford and Bradley will surely be in contention for the top prizes in Saturday evening’s awards night in the Platinum Suite, and the mood of said event will be shaped by the day’s result.
Ian Evatt has made no secret that a top six spot had been his target, and while the Papa Johns Trophy win against Plymouth Argyle at Wembley has embellished an already impressive early managerial CV, failure to get over the line in these circumstances is bound to raise questions.
Evolution has been clearly mapped out through promotion from League Two and a respectable ninth-place finish last term. A play-off spot – victorious or otherwise – was the logical continuation, even if it does not necessarily tabulate with the playing budget Evatt has had to work with compared to many of his peers.
Given that Fleetwood are the third visitors from the lower half of the table to the UniBol in eight days, there is an undeniable sense among supporters that the Whites had a favourable run-in, especially compared to the likes of Derby County and Peterborough United. To seize up in the home straight would be tough for the most optimistic follower to take.
Since beating Plymouth at Wembley Bolton have scored no more than one goal in each of their six games. Defensively, they have remained impressively solid despite the absence of mainstays Ricardo Santos and Eoin Toal, but their attacking returns have remained worryingly low.
Overall, Wanderers have scored 36 times from open play this season, ranking 11th in League One. Nearly half of those have been scored by Dion Charles, whose 20th goal of the campaign, scored at Oxford United earlier in the month, is his only one in the last half dozen games.
OptaStats note that Bolton have had 385 shots from open play this season and that their XG (expected goals) suggest they should have scored more (38.91) than they have managed. Next opponents Fleetwood, Port Vale, Derby County, Oxford United, Accrington Stanley and Forest Green share that same trait.
It may feel like a world away from the nervous, intricate build-up play of Shrewsbury or Accrington in the last seven days, but there was also a brief spell in February where Bolton rattled in 10 goals in two games against Peterborough and MK Dons. Taking those two outliers out of the equation, and it really has been a tight season in front of goal.
Wanderers may derive some comfort from their improved returns from set plays. They no longer prop up the League One table on goals scored or chances created, and in the sort of tense situation they currently find themselves in, it is encouraging to know that a goal is more likely be conjured from something as simple as a corner these days.
Getting on the scoreboard first has been especially important this season. Wanderers have done so on 20 occasions, going on to win 16 and draw three. Only Barnsley, Plymouth and Peterborough average more points from games in which they have scored the opening goal.
For those of a nervous disposition, it may also be worth noting that Fleetwood boast the second worst record in the division having opened the scoring – something they have done 23 times, but held on to take three points on just 12 occasions.
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