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Bolton Nuts » BWFC » Bolton Wanderers Banter » How many points could Bolton need for survival next season?

How many points could Bolton need for survival next season?

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Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
WANDERERS will need top 10 form to avoid relegation next season, based on the last three decades of results in League One.
Research from The Bolton News has found that since 1989, teams have had to average 49 points or above to survive the drop into English football’s bottom tier.
The EFL has already confirmed the Whites will be starting on minus 12 points – which based on the same average would leave them needing to collect 61 or above to stay up. That is 1.32 points per game.
There is also the high likelihood that Wanderers will suffer a further points penalty for failing to fulfil their fixtures next season. A three-point punishment would increase the survival target to 64, or 1.39 points per game.

Putting that into context with Wanderers’ previous seasons at this level, they have twice achieved exactly 64 points over 46 games to finish 10th in the table.

In 1983/84, John McGovern’s side dropped off after an encouraging start to languish in mid-table but folk at Burnden Park were at least cheered by strike partnership Tony Caldwell and Jeff Chandler, who shared 33 league goals between them.
Things went in the opposite direction for Phil Neal’s Wanderers in 1988/89, where a 20-game unbeaten run – including the Sherpa Van Trophy final victory against Torquay United – salvaged a poor start to the campaign.
For those optimists who believe Bolton could still gate-crash the play-offs next season, the average number of points needed to book a top-six spot in League One or its equivalent over the last 30 seasons has been 74, or 1.6 points per game.

Factoring in the punishment we already know about for Wanderers, the target would be 86, or a lofty 1.86 points per game.
That has only twice been achieved by the club at this level of football. Phil Parkinson’s side averaged 1.87 points per game finishing runners-up behind Sheffield United in 2016/17.
Bruce Rioch’s famous White Hot team which clinched promotion in 1992/93 managed 90 points, or 1.95 points per game – and that after an inconsistent first few months.

Anyone concerned that next season will be all about mid-table inconsistency, however, should know that the gap between the play-off picture and the bottom four can be wildly unpredictable.

In 1989, Southend United went down on 54 points but Preston North End made sixth with just 72 – leaving 14 clubs covered by the intervening 18 points.
The biggest chasm between top six and bottom four occurred in 2000 when Cardiff racked up 44 points to drop into League Two and Stoke scraped into the play-offs with 82, enough to guarantee automatic promotion in four of the seasons covered by our research.
The average gap between play-offs and relegation is just under 24 points.
And for those wondering whether automatic promotion is still possible, the reality is that it would take a record-breaking campaign.
The average number of points to finish second is a shade under 87, or 1.89 points per game. Factoring in the minimum 12-point penalty for going into administration, Wanderers would need 99, or 2.15 points per game, to get close to that figure.

Wolves managed a whopping 103 when they went up as champions in 2013-14. Kenny Jackett’s side lost just five of their 46 games, setting a new record for the modern League One.
Both Charlton (102) and Sheffield United (100) breaking into a century over the last seven years – and should Wanderers have to give opposing sides a 15-point head start, it is only that kind of form which could theoretically put them into the promotion picture.

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Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If that's the case and we need 60+ points to stay up next season then it's going to be very tough to avoid relegation especially as we will be under a transfer embargo as well. Interesting and worrying times ahead i reckon.

rammywhite

rammywhite
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
I'm confident we'll do it. Some of the young players are maturing and a few of the old hands( like Magennis) will still be with us. We'll need 20 wins from 46 to get the points, so I think we'll manage it. We're still a big club and will attract some decent off casts from other clubs perhaps on a pay-per-play basis. I'm a bit more confident than I was a month ago when the spectre of KA and fatboy Bassini were hovering over the club.
I'll forecast 65 points

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I admire your optimism rammy, i hope you're right  Very Happy

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
Im putting a tenner on us to get promoted. PMA

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If Parky is in charge the Bolton v Chorley derby will become a reality.

With a new man in charge who signs the right players, of course we can stay up.

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Im putting a tenner on us to get promoted. PMA
Whats the odds Johnny? I' imagine they are quite long.

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly

[size=33]What odds are Bolton to be promoted straight back to the Championship?[/size]

The question now is can Bolton Wanderers bounce back and gain promotion straight back into the Championship? That is what they managed to do a couple of years ago when they were relegated, ultimately finishing second behind Sheffield United to get themselves back up.
In all honesty though, given the current circumstances at the Macron Stadium it looks a remarkably tall order for them this time around and it will surely be a more difficult task.
It is hard to tell exactly what will happen this summer. Will the takeover of Bassini go through? Will players stay at the club or will they have to have a complete overhaul of the squad? The uncertainty is bound to continue through the next months which is not a healthy position to be in.
However, despite all of that the bookmakers have somewhat surprisingly priced them up amongst the early favourites ahead of the 2019/20 League One campaign. Indeed of the six clubs currently on the market for next season Bolton have the second shortest odds to be promoted at 5/2 with [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.], with only fellow relegated side [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.].
As for the league title, they are also amongst the favourites in the bookmakers odds. In fact they are the joint favourites alongside Ipswich Town as it stands, with both clubs currently priced at 7/1 with Sky Bet.

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
just looked at paddypower and we are 50/1 to be champions, 12/1 to get promoted and 15/8 to be relegated  Shocked

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Think i saw that as well Johnny but that was from April before we went into administration and -12 points

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
Tenner on promoted and champions. At least 130 back possibly 640.

Win/ win for twenty quid bet

karlypants

karlypants
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If we were going to get a penalty for not fulfilling all match games of last season wouldn't we have had it already at the same time as the administration penalty?

Why are they taking their time on this?

It just prolongs the agony if they are going to issue an extra penalty for this.

rammywhite

rammywhite
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Surprising but certainly not unwelcome. Is it out of date though as it mentions fatboy Bassini who is surely now an irrelevance?

karlypants

karlypants
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Tenner on promoted and champions. At least 130 back possibly 640.

Win/ win for twenty quid bet

Nice. Smile

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Tenner on promoted and champions. At least 130 back possibly 640.

Win/ win for twenty quid bet

That's like saying you were going on 'Blind Date' and the choice was Hottie A, Hottie B, or KP in a mini-skirt.

It's definitely a win/win/loss, as is putting £20 on Bolton.

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Tenner on promoted and champions. At least 130 back possibly 640.

Win/ win for twenty quid bet

That's like saying you were going on 'Blind Date' and the choice was Hottie A, Hottie B, or KP in a mini-skirt.

It's definitely a win/win/loss, as is putting £20 on Bolton.
No

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If you're putting £20 on Bolton to win something, it's definitely not a win/win.

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
KP in a mini skirt isn't what I expected to be rattling around in my head this morning.

Don't let this happen again.

karlypants

karlypants
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:KP in a mini skirt isn't what I expected to be rattling around in my head this morning.

Don't let this happen again.

They call me Suzi when I put it on Bonce.

I look a right treat in one with my pigtails!

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:If you're putting £20 on Bolton to win something, it's definitely not a win/win.

We will be promoted next season #itk #facts #havefaith #natsgotadick

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I've missed you on here Johnny  Laughing

finlaymcdanger

finlaymcdanger
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Pay no attention to the table lads. One win at a time and the rest will take care of itself.

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:I've missed you on here Johnny  Laughing
Love you Mr pig

#manlove #piglove #oinkasm

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:I've missed you on here Johnny  Laughing
I worry that he's getting into bad company. He certainly is on here. Very Happy

MartinBWFC

MartinBWFC
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
I don't think with Parkinson in charge we will get the required points, change manager and out of the bottom 4 will do for me next season.

luckyPeterpiper

luckyPeterpiper
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington
Mid table would be a decent result given we're likely to start on at least -15 points.

With that said if new owners and new management are in place by august we could see a top half finish especially if we can sign a few players but I prefer to err on the side of caution. Anything above 20th will do for me next term.

y2johnny


Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:I've missed you on here Johnny  Laughing
I worry that he's getting into bad company. He certainly is on here. Very Happy
I keep my own company. #lonewolf #warrior #billynomates

finlaymcdanger

finlaymcdanger
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:Mid table would be a decent result given we're likely to start on at least -15 points.

With that said if new owners and new management are in place by august we could see a top half finish especially if we can sign a few players but I prefer to err on the side of caution. Anything above 20th will do for me next term.

I'd settle for another great escape at this point

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