The Doug Delusion...

I found this comment on the Brighton thread... "to his credit he's focussed on protecting the defence and that's led to an improvement in the goals conceded column."

What is wrong with it?
This.

His focus on protecting the defence has "led to an improvement in the goals conceded column." Has it?

Our average goals against has indeed dropped since Freedman took over at the club but to simply put the two together and conclude that Freedman's appointment (and subsequent involvement) is the reason for the lower rate of conceding is a basic, if understandable, oversight.

You could argue all day long in the following vein... "Freedman joined the club and our average goals conceded dropped over the next 5 games. Therefore Freedman and his tactics is the reason." I do not want any ill considered responses to that effect in this thread.

I will make the case thus. Bolton have defended poorly against Brighton and could have (or should have) conceded far more than one goal. The same as Barnsley could have easily gone away with more than a single goal from the Reebok. And the same as is true of other games under Freedman. (Please do not mistake this discussion with me apportioning blame to Freedman, that is not what we are trying to establish). Freedman's tactics and team selections have still allowed the opposition teams as many clear cut opportunities to score goals against us as we saw with Coyle in charge. The fact that these chances were not converted is not in any way attributable to anything that Freedman has done with the team. Do not mistake this fact.

Nothing Freedman did caused Bogdan to guess the right way on a penalty or caused the Brighton player to miss an open net with a 6 yard header. Freedman didn't influence the ball to hit the bar three times instead of it hitting the back of the net three times. Freedman's tactics didn't cause that Barnsley player to waste a golden opportunity to score last week. Blackpool could have easily had 3 against us with the number of chances they created. They carved us open countless times. It certainly was not an improvement in defence which kept us from conceding. Luck was just on our side. All teams get lucky sometimes. And that is what is happening with us right now.

The recent dip in goals against is not a direct result of Freedman taking over, it's a by-product of poor finishing from other teams and good fortune on our part. To say that the decrease in conceded goals is a positive point in favour of Freedman or that it "shows he must be doing something right" is a fallacy, sadly. It is true that the start of Freedman's managerial reign has coincided with a more favourable defensive record, on paper, but that is all. The two states are co-existing - one has not led to the other.

"Like it or not, his change in selection and formation has improved results" - another comment on the Brigton thread.

Unfortunately, pretty much the same arguament applies as does to the claim that he has improved us defensively. How many people would say that Freedman had improved us the back if Brighton had not been denied by the woodwork so many times? Whilst we didn't concede those goals that hit the bar the competancy of the defending was exactly the same as if we had.

You're getting on dougies back 5 games in?

He's played all games testing an using different formations and players, after the performance at Brighton he will realise that pratley and ream
are not good enough.

He is still working us out, and is unbeaten.

Stop moaning and get behind the doug

You may be right, luck could be an element as we're clearly not defending well given the amount of chances the other side generate.

But at this point the facts still support an improvement in results since he took over and the facts are important, I still think we'd of lost most of his games with Coyle in charge.

In my opinion our defence is poor yes, but our main problems lie in centre midfield, we really need 2 Muamba types in there to offer some protection to the back 4 and I hope he addresses this as well as bolstering the defence in January. Spearing would be a good start in fairness.

5 games is no time at all he needs to be given time to put his stamp on the team, and given how poor our squad is, a big factor in judging him will be the players he brings in, by all accounts Butterfield isn't a bad player so that's not a bad start but we need long term players.

I'm actually shaking my head, literally.

Hipster_Nebula wrote:I'm actually shaking my head, literally.

See a doctor.

When was the last time Bolton went 5 games unbeaten????



I am not too sure on this but wasn't it under Big sam?

I can't believe some posters are getting on Dougies back already. Jesus H Christ after the turgid pap dished up under Megson and the Over Hyped Owen Coyle tenure I would have thought we could cut Dougie a bit of slack.

Wanderers fans have seen our players performing week in and week out whereas Dougie hasn't. Four draws and a win is not perfect by any means but let us at least give him the benefit of the doubt until he has got his feet under the table.

His record at Palace this season is not to be scoffed at so why blame him for all our woes ? The team are clearly not as good as we thought they were. The bookies were fooled as well.

Give Dougie time. He is young and ambitious and he will soon realise which players are not up to the job. If he makes changes in January which enhance our performance then he will be our new messiah. Until then, we have to be patient.

Your take on us allowing tens of clear cut chances to the opposition simply isn't true if we go through the games:

Cardiff - They didn't, but this is a bit early to be judged anyway

Leicester - I don't care what the reports say, we weren't battered in this and had a few chances ourselves, against one of the best teams we did fine being his second game.

Blackpool - They didn't have a flurry of chances, we were the better side.

Barnsley - We were the ones who missed all the chances, should have won

Brighton - Got lucky, should have been well beaten. But.. I didn't go but from looking at the replays a lot of theirs were long shot efforts, top quality long shots, but still not exactly cutting up our defense.



From what I have seen we have been far more organised, we sit as two solid banks of four when not in possession and usually look strong.

Also note that about three of our conceded goals in those game have been mainly due to an error made by Bogdan, (Not slagging him off,I think hes a good goalkeeper) makes it funny to watch everyone one week want to drop him for Lynch (as if!?) and the next saying hes a top quality keeper, compared to most keepers in this league hes in the top quarter, I really feel the quality of goalkeepers overall drops dramatically down the leagues - anyway that wasn't really relevant, main point - Freedman has tightened up the defense.



If anything is going to sum it up then its this - Knight has been one of our best performers in the last 5 games.....

..Zat Knight... That isn't from luck

Critism of the manager after 5 games while he tinkers in order to assess his players before the January window is naive to say the least. Indeed he would attracted critism if he had not done this and been accused of not doing his job. Yes we got battered at Brighton but salvaged a point but the manager will have learned from this.

One thing is noticeable we now look to be more organised and hold our shape (with the exception of Ream and Pratley failing to close down and protect on Saturday).

Lenny Lawrences influence is apparent as he has throughout his management career based his sides on solid defense. At the moment he can only work with the players at his disposal. Fans will have to be patient.

Long in the tooth fans like myself have seen this before and may be more patient whilst younger fans brought up with the success of BSA's sides may need to learn this.

I suppose we must all wait and see.

Defensive or not defensive...we were fucking shit!

Should have been 5 goals down after 45 mins!

Forgive me for using the bolton nuts cliche...but im still seething!

Sort it the fuck out dougie, whatever players you have, whoever the opposition are, its YOUR PROBLEM!

We are not even gonna make the play offs, at this rate we cpuld end up in league one!

You, in general, are all making the same mistake. You are equating my comments in the opening post with a criticism of the manager. Please review your thinking. My aim was not to criticise the manager in any sense, I just wanted to bring balance to the incorrect notion that our unbeaten run and improved average on goals against is attributable to him.

Whilst some improvements, if seen, could be associated with Freedman's appointment - we have to face the fact that the way that the team is performing and defending could easily and realistically have ended up with us losing games and conceding many more goals. We have to face that fact and not become over complimentary of the new boss.

I am not saying don't get behind him or even that it's a bad appointment. I am trying to point out that even with exactly the same level of organisation on the pitch and exactly the same amount of effort exerted and exactly the same level of competency in defence we could easily have been looking at 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses with several more goals against. In which case the people on here would be feeling a lot less enthusiastic and sympathetic toward the manager.

But we also could have easily had 3 wins and 2 draws.

We were the better side against Cardiff, Barnsley and Blackpool.




You seem to be basing your entire theory on the last game, the only game since his appointment in which we have been very lucky, directly after a game in which we were very unlucky not to win.



The improvements are pretty clear on the pitch.










Fans just love to complain too much, when were too attacking its bad and people moan saying clean sheets are vital, when we try to sort out the defense people complain and say that a clean sheet mean nothing. When we pick the same team every week people say we need to diversify, praising any player not in the starting eleven (even mentioning youth squad players, which is just ridiculous, our U18 seem to be developing well but above that is just shite) when Dougie changes the team people say he has no idea what hes doing and is just 'hoping to find the right formula'.

I suppose if Arsene Wenger is getting criticised (after selling two of his best players and still finishing 3rd) then theirs no hope for anyone. How long before United finish 2nd again and Fergie has 'lost it'.




5 games, 3 good performances, 1 average performance and a poor one. Im happy with that so far.

Lofty_Love wrote:But we also could have easily had 3 wins and 2 draws.

We were the better side against Cardiff, Barnsley and Blackpool.




You seem to be basing your entire theory on the last game, the only game since his appointment in which we have been very lucky, directly after a game in which we were very unlucky not to win.



The improvements are pretty clear on the pitch.










Fans just love to complain too much, when were too attacking its bad and people moan saying clean sheets are vital, when we try to sort out the defense people complain and say that a clean sheet mean nothing. When we pick the same team every week people say we need to diversify, praising any player not in the starting eleven (even mentioning youth squad players, which is just ridiculous, our U18 seem to be developing well but above that is just shite) when Dougie changes the team people say he has no idea what hes doing and is just 'hoping to find the right formula'.

I suppose if Arsene Wenger is getting criticised (after selling two of his best players and still finishing 3rd) then theirs no hope for anyone. How long before United finish 2nd again and Fergie has 'lost it'.




5 games, 3 good performances, 1 average performance and a poor one. Im happy with that so far.

As the poster quoted in the thread intro I'd like to respond as follows:

Both Jay Jay and RR make very valid points. We have ridden our luck and we are still shit at the back. However Jay Jay's analysis is based on an erroneous assumption. In order to avoid getting bogged down in pedantry I would restate and clarify my original point as follows:

* DF is aware of the problem and is widely quoted as having put a strong emphasis on defending as a team in training

* We have the same players, and given his limited options elected to set up to screen the defence rather than shuffle the back 4 yet again

* In doing so, it has reduced the number of bodies we commit forward (compared to OC) and therefore is more likely to invite attacks.

* It is noticable that whilst we are under pressure more as a result, we are defending in numbers and less likely to concede the type of breakaway goals that OCs sides suffered from.

* We concede less goals as a result.

So I wrote he should be commended for seeing the problem and doing something about it.

What Jay Jay omitted from the quote was the context of the comment (thereby opening the door for this thread). The context was "DF has made a start, but has a long way to go - and he has a dilemma to overcome"

This quote about giving him credit for addressing defensive issues is the first bit (he's made a start)

The second bit (he has a long way to go) Jay Jay neatly sidestepped.

And the third bit (he has a dilemma - in this case how does he improve our strike rate whilst reducing the number of players committed to attack) is probably another discussion altogether.

So I guess the thread should really be about taking phrases completely out of context, making out that the author meant something completely different by them and using this deception to reinforce a point/whinge.

I am bemused at the reaction to JayJay's original post. There is nothing to suggest a "Freedman out!" - in fact, it seemed like an analysis of the games our Douglas has had in charge. Granted, I am strangely underwhelmed by the fact that we are 5 games unbeaten for the first time in heaven knows how long. I am still keenly observing the doings of our new management team and am firmly on the fence at this time. This does not mean that I am anti-Doug - far from it. I am well aware that he cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. I just haven't yet been caught up in the enthusiasm that seems to have captivated many of you.7 from 5 is great in comparison to OC's showing, but it is still only 7 from 5 when the target set at the beginning of the season was 10 from 5. this means that we need better than two points a game just to make up for the initial shortfall. Calm down, guys - we are in for the long haul but we support the same team.

wanderlust wrote:As the poster quoted in the thread intro I'd like to respond as follows:

Both Jay Jay and RR make very valid points. We have ridden our luck and we are still shit at the back. However Jay Jay's analysis is based on an erroneous assumption. In order to avoid getting bogged down in pedantry I would restate and clarify my original point as follows:

* DF is aware of the problem and is widely quoted as having put a strong emphasis on defending as a team in training

* We have the same players, and given his limited options elected to set up to screen the defence rather than shuffle the back 4 yet again

* In doing so, it has reduced the number of bodies we commit forward (compared to OC) and therefore is more likely to invite attacks.

* It is noticable that whilst we are under pressure more as a result, we are defending in numbers and less likely to concede the type of breakaway goals that OCs sides suffered from.

* We concede less goals as a result.

So I wrote he should be commended for seeing the problem and doing something about it.

What Jay Jay omitted from the quote was the context of the comment (thereby opening the door for this thread). The context was "DF has made a start, but has a long way to go - and he has a dilemma to overcome"

This quote about giving him credit for addressing defensive issues is the first bit (he's made a start)

The second bit (he has a long way to go) Jay Jay neatly sidestepped.

And the third bit (he has a dilemma - in this case how does he improve our strike rate whilst reducing the number of players committed to attack) is probably another discussion altogether.

So I guess the thread should really be about taking phrases completely out of context, making out that the author meant something completely different by them and using this deception to reinforce a point/whinge.

Fine - you got me. If someone is going to argue with me then this is exactly how to do it.

My comment in Post 7 was mainly directed at the title of the post more than our results under his watch.

Even last night, we ran the gauntlet defensively a bit at times, especially at the end when Eagles came off. I guess it's a long way from perfect, but it's early doors and I think there have been some good signs.

What is noticeable from the selection is that DF is nowhere as near as dogmatic about his approach to games as OC was. He seems quite happy to mix it up as he feels is required for each opponent. I suspect the old head of LL has something to do with this - and maybe there will be a place for other squad members somewhere down the line.

He'll refine that process as he learns even more about the squad and in theory we should continue to improve. So far he has 10 points from 18 - not exactly setting the world on fire, but going in the right direction.

Still, we're just about in touch with the play off places so there's something to go for although we all know that the first bad result will cause outrage and indignation, so let's hope he keeps up the progress. Poor performance against Brighton, good performance against Rovers so could go either way IMO.

We looked a lot better defensively with Ricketts playing centre back alongside Knight. I much prefer Ricketts in this position to Mills who just tends to hoof the ball into the air.

Dougie has only made one signing of his own, namely Butterfield. I was very impressed. He has got better with every game. Him, Spearing and Mark Davies are our best combination. Andrews will have to make way for Davies on Saturday.

I know KD has his critics but DF clearly thinks he is worth persevering with. He had a good game yesterday and was a handful for Scott Dann and Henley all evening.

Instead of Doug Delusion it should be Doug Conclusion.

Too true RT, Knight looked more confident alongside Ricketts than he has all season next to Ream or Mills.