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And the actual answer to the time of the 45th goal is this...
Bolton have scored 39 league goals in 26 league games.
20 at home, 19 away in 13 matches each. So home and away doesn't matter.
That is 1.5 goals per game.
That means it will take us 4 games to score the six required goals.
That takes us to Watford away.
But, if you take into account our current form, we have scored 9 goals in our last 5 league games. That is 1.8 goals per game. Which means we hit the magic 45 goal mark at some point in our 3rd game. Which is more important, current form or season form?
Let us look at the opposition.
Millwall have conceded goals in their last 5 games, approximately a goal per game. Expect 1 goal in our favour against them and 1 against.
Palace have conceded 8 goals in 5 games recently. Expect 1 to two goals there. If we get two that keeps us bang on our 1.5 goal average (and 3 goals into our 6 goal target).
Which brings us to Peterborough.
Only Peterborough are below us in the league and we scored 4 against them away from home. There is a good chance the goals will flow against them at the Reebok. 3 goals here means we hit 45 on this day, which seems to also match up with our current goals per game average (on recent form) of 1.8.
An extra goal or two in either the Palace or Millwall game will mean that the likelihood of Peterborough being the best bet goes up further too.
So Peterborough is the sensible option.
But when will the goal come? If we stick with the theory that we need 3 against Peterborough to reach 45 then the chances are that the third and all important goal will come in the second half of play. But what if we are already a goal better off coming out of our previous two games? Well, I have to consider this so I now have to hedge my bets and presume that while we are likely to need a third goal against Peterborough, if we get it, it must be on a day where we are up for it. Therefore the goal will come early in the second half before we round off the day with a few more. And, if we happen to be ahead of the mark by the time that game comes around me early in the second half prediction means I am kind of covering my bases for the first half too.
So, my guess.
Peterborough. 45 mins.
(Oh and just to further increase my chance 45 mins will aslo include stoppage time at the end of the first half, even if it's 48 mins into the game! So I get extra mins too!)
Bolton have scored 39 league goals in 26 league games.
20 at home, 19 away in 13 matches each. So home and away doesn't matter.
That is 1.5 goals per game.
That means it will take us 4 games to score the six required goals.
That takes us to Watford away.
But, if you take into account our current form, we have scored 9 goals in our last 5 league games. That is 1.8 goals per game. Which means we hit the magic 45 goal mark at some point in our 3rd game. Which is more important, current form or season form?
Let us look at the opposition.
Millwall have conceded goals in their last 5 games, approximately a goal per game. Expect 1 goal in our favour against them and 1 against.
Palace have conceded 8 goals in 5 games recently. Expect 1 to two goals there. If we get two that keeps us bang on our 1.5 goal average (and 3 goals into our 6 goal target).
Which brings us to Peterborough.
Only Peterborough are below us in the league and we scored 4 against them away from home. There is a good chance the goals will flow against them at the Reebok. 3 goals here means we hit 45 on this day, which seems to also match up with our current goals per game average (on recent form) of 1.8.
An extra goal or two in either the Palace or Millwall game will mean that the likelihood of Peterborough being the best bet goes up further too.
So Peterborough is the sensible option.
But when will the goal come? If we stick with the theory that we need 3 against Peterborough to reach 45 then the chances are that the third and all important goal will come in the second half of play. But what if we are already a goal better off coming out of our previous two games? Well, I have to consider this so I now have to hedge my bets and presume that while we are likely to need a third goal against Peterborough, if we get it, it must be on a day where we are up for it. Therefore the goal will come early in the second half before we round off the day with a few more. And, if we happen to be ahead of the mark by the time that game comes around me early in the second half prediction means I am kind of covering my bases for the first half too.
So, my guess.
Peterborough. 45 mins.
(Oh and just to further increase my chance 45 mins will aslo include stoppage time at the end of the first half, even if it's 48 mins into the game! So I get extra mins too!)
Last edited by Biggie on Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:35 am; edited 1 time in total
This makes me ask just one question: Have you got too much spare time on your hands ? 
