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Guess what? Bolton have an almost 50% chance of winning this weekend when they travel to Leeds for what is set to be a massive game for both clubs.
Forget new players, manager decisions, tactics and latest injuries. I am focusing on nothing but the stats with everything from goals scored and conceded, home and away, wins loses and draws all chucked in a calculator and churned out the other side to give us chance to know the result before a ball is even kicked.
Let's get started!
Bolton and Leeds are almost inseparable, on paper, both having won 40%, drawn 20% and lost 40% of their last 20 games (based on Leeds home and Bolton away games). Leeds have lost their last two home games in a row whilst Bolton have lost their last two away games - no wonder the bookies have this clash pegged as a draw.
Leeds United have kept a clean sheet in only 6 out of their last 20 home games. Based on this you might say there is is a 70% chance that Bolton will score. To corroborate that estimation it is noteworthy that Bolton have scored in 75% of their last 20 away games. But, unfortunately, the exact opposite is true of Leeds who score in 75% of all home games whilst Bolton conceded goals in 14 of their last 20 matches away from home. So the chances are that both teams will score at some point!
To find any difference in the two sides you have to look at current form based on their last 20 games overall (rather than home and away) - this is where a more interesting, and maybe surprising, story lies. Despite Bolton's horrendous start to the season the Wanderers have still only conceded 21 goals in 20 games compared to Leeds' 36 goals against during the same period. Bolton have also won 8, drawn 7 and lost 5, while Leeds slumped to 12 defeats in that time, picking up only 5 victories and 3 draws. Bolton are also miles ahead on goals for, scoring 29 times in total compared to a measly 18 goals for Leeds.
To sum up, if recent history is anything to go by, then it is Bolton who could be most likely to rediscover some sort of form this weekend as they hope to end the rot once and for all. When all the sums are done we discover that in fact a Bolton win (at 44% likely) is the most likely outcome. However a Leeds win (30% likely) is in second place which means that a draw could be the safest bet this time around (although a draw is statistically most unlikely at only 26%).
If this were possible, I would guess that Bolton would win this game by 1.5 goals to 1.
(By Biggie - Bolton Nuts)
The article is stats based, but how big of a part can historical stats really play in predicting the outcome of a match?
Forget new players, manager decisions, tactics and latest injuries. I am focusing on nothing but the stats with everything from goals scored and conceded, home and away, wins loses and draws all chucked in a calculator and churned out the other side to give us chance to know the result before a ball is even kicked.
Let's get started!
Bolton and Leeds are almost inseparable, on paper, both having won 40%, drawn 20% and lost 40% of their last 20 games (based on Leeds home and Bolton away games). Leeds have lost their last two home games in a row whilst Bolton have lost their last two away games - no wonder the bookies have this clash pegged as a draw.
Leeds United have kept a clean sheet in only 6 out of their last 20 home games. Based on this you might say there is is a 70% chance that Bolton will score. To corroborate that estimation it is noteworthy that Bolton have scored in 75% of their last 20 away games. But, unfortunately, the exact opposite is true of Leeds who score in 75% of all home games whilst Bolton conceded goals in 14 of their last 20 matches away from home. So the chances are that both teams will score at some point!
To find any difference in the two sides you have to look at current form based on their last 20 games overall (rather than home and away) - this is where a more interesting, and maybe surprising, story lies. Despite Bolton's horrendous start to the season the Wanderers have still only conceded 21 goals in 20 games compared to Leeds' 36 goals against during the same period. Bolton have also won 8, drawn 7 and lost 5, while Leeds slumped to 12 defeats in that time, picking up only 5 victories and 3 draws. Bolton are also miles ahead on goals for, scoring 29 times in total compared to a measly 18 goals for Leeds.
To sum up, if recent history is anything to go by, then it is Bolton who could be most likely to rediscover some sort of form this weekend as they hope to end the rot once and for all. When all the sums are done we discover that in fact a Bolton win (at 44% likely) is the most likely outcome. However a Leeds win (30% likely) is in second place which means that a draw could be the safest bet this time around (although a draw is statistically most unlikely at only 26%).
If this were possible, I would guess that Bolton would win this game by 1.5 goals to 1.
(By Biggie - Bolton Nuts)
The article is stats based, but how big of a part can historical stats really play in predicting the outcome of a match?
