Coronavirus - will we survive?

Norpig wrote:Fin lives in New York so hope you are keeping well over there mate!

I thought he moved back to London a good while back?

He did but went back a few months ago to work with the XFL American football company.

The truth about coronavirus: Manchester scientist on everything we do and don't know about COVID-19

Dr Thomas House is a mathematical epidemiologist and one of the scientists advising the government during the current coronavirus crisis.
He works at the University of Manchester and is a member of a national committee which specialises in mathematical modelling.
We asked Dr House about all we know - and what we don't - about the pandemic.

What is COVID-19 and how do you see it?

It's a viral pathogen which colonises your respiratory tract and lungs. It's spread from person to person.
It's one of the big challenges that our generation of humans has got to deal with.

What do you think started the pandemic?

We don't know. We have to wait for the genetics and science to come in.
The theory about it starting in a lab doesn't seem terribly likely.
But the idea it emerged somewhere other than Wuhan and that's just where it got going in the human population is plausible. We just don't know where.
You can do calculations with genetics and try and work it out. The fact we first saw a case in Wuhan doesn't mean that's the starting point.

Why do we need to social distance?

Because we know it's spread directly from person to person and we don't have a medical intervention. For flu we have a vaccination but we don't have anything that works for coronavirus.
Should we have started the lockdown sooner?
There was a lot of clamouring to do it really early. But there was no point because there weren't enough cases for all the trouble it would have caused.
By the time it was in lots of countries there was no chance of driving it to extinction like we did with SARS so you have to time it right so you're actually keeping people away from others who are infectious.
Maybe it should have been a little earlier or a little later - but that's the kind of thing we can look back on. The strategy of not jumping straight away is correct.
However the 'take it on the chin' idea was not right and was never what scientists were saying. Lockdown was necessary.

How long do you think this lockdown will last and is it working?

We have to look at the figures in the coming days.
We are going to have to come up with strategies for measuring the trade-off between the lockdown and the human cost and the economy. People are already finding it hard just a few weeks in.
In a week's time we will have better knowledge of how much of an effect the current lockdown has had. We'll be able to look at hospital capacity.

What about these daily infection and death toll figures?

The fact they are shooting up doesn't mean social distancing isn't working, there's just a delay.
It's the infections we are stopping now that will stop the future deaths
It should start to decrease in the next week or two.

How many people are currently infected in the UK and Greater Manchester?

That's the big unknown. What I've heard from the rest of Europe is that it's a few per cent at least. So it will have already infected a significant percentage.
We're not near herd immunity but there are many more cases than those confirmed. There could already have been hundreds of thousands of infections.

Are you surprised by how many people are affected?

No, because the numbers of deaths that came out of China were never zero and we think there have been a lot of infections so that is going to happen.

Do you expect to get coronavirus?

Yes. I had to self-isolate last week with mild symptoms but like many people I don't know if I had it or not.

Every death is a tragedy. But there is quite a lot of talk about 'excess deaths' - those which would have happened anyway. How many more deaths do you think are happening than if the pandemic didn't exist?

Every year in the UK about 600,000 people die. If we just let the epidemic sweep through we might be thinking about doubling that.
If we socially distance and ensure all the people who need treatment get treatment and don't overwhelm the NHS we can get that down.
But I think even in the best case scenario, excess deaths will still be in the high tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands this year as a result of coronavirus - and there's the general disruption it's caused to medical care.

A lot of people feel angry that Governments - including the UK Government - weren't as prepared for a pandemic as they could have been. Do you think that's justified?

The scientific community has been saying 'get ready for this' for years. It's not just our Government - I've got lots of friends around Europe saying 'why weren't we more ready?'
It think it's a problem that emergency preparedness seems like a natural thing to cut when you need to make savings.
It costs money but it's worth it.

Do you think in the future we'll be more prepared?

I hope so - lots of these things are predictable. We don't know when but we know there will be other diseases.

How worried should we be?

It's so difficult because as scientists it's our duty to tell people the inconvenient truth. This is something we are in for the long-haul.
Coronavirus will be one of the main things humans die of this year. But we live in a safe society where most people don't die in a given year.
Worry is never helpful but people should care about it enough to modify their behaviour.
Car accidents are another big cause of death in this country. When you get in a car worry isn't helpful. But you should recognise the risks and put on a seatbelt and not drive recklessly. In the same way people should obey self-distancing and be hygienic.
It's a real thing and people should modify their behaviour to address that.
But don't despair because this is something we can do something about.
It's not like this scary thing happening that we can't control. We can all pull together and get through it.
For example, a thousand scientists have volunteered to help with coronavirus research in this country.

What's the best case scenario?

A vaccine that comes very quickly.

And if not?

Second best is we manage the epidemic well, the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed, and it spreads in the way coronavirus viruses usually do.
In films the virus always evolves to be more scary, actually evolution works the other way. It tends to make them less deadly.

We've seen very young people are not in as much in danger. If there's something circulating the whole time, the immune system gets better at dealing with it.

The antibody test will give crucial information on how many people just get a mild cold.
Humans have been through big pandemics before right through history.
The worst was 1918. There were a few in the 19th century, three in the 20th century. We were lucky with SARS and Ebola and MERS that they were contained.

How long will we feel the impact of coronavirus on our lives?

If we don't get an effective vaccine there are probably going to have to be a lot of infections with this disease.
Herd immunity shouldn't have been the main strategy. But we have to manage the acquisition of that while giving as much time as possible.
Once we get the antibody tests we'll know more about how close to herd immunity we are.
I think some people may think just stay home for a few weeks and that's that - but it's longer haul than that.

How long-haul?

There will be consequences for the rest of 2020. But we'll get better at managing social distancing and work out which activities cause the least disruption for most benefit.
The sort of thing that might change is if we see evidence that it's not good at spreading outdoors then we might have a policy of people being able to go outdoors.
There might be less worry about parks, for example. Hopefully we will get better at managing activities and which ones are safe and which aren't.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/scientist-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-end-18059107?fbclid=IwAR0SYnUQr-nY6XRkfELuUB8zO6XsltaidzYHl_1gDVKOS-I0ccwV4EOwQmU

Anyone seen Contagion?

boltonbonce wrote:Anyone seen Contagion?

Literally just finished watching it/listening to it (whilst pinting walls) - very true to this epidemic, even bats were involved!

The Mrs is watching this right now on Netflix funnily enough.

I would rather be doing something else though as we are living through the same fucking nightmare.

Alive and kicking (for now) thanks, Norpig! Still working despite our launch season being cancelled after 5 weeks which obviously wasn't ideal. Bigger things going on to worry about than work though. Just keeping my family out or harms way, educated and entertained like everyone else. We're not going anywhere near other people - too crazy in NYC at the moment - so getting groceries online is a challenge but we're making it work. Don't underestimate how precious Heintz Baked Beans are... we can't get 'em for love nor money right now.

7-8 months working for a new American football league and I'm 100% into the game. I always QUITE liked it but this time I'm totally sold on it. I guess the Bolton scenario this past few years finally allowed me a little room to entertain another sport and its happened.

Hope youNutters are all well in Bolton and wherever else you all are. Stay indoors!

COYW!

Dr Catherine Calderwood, recently disgraced and sacked Chief Medical Officer for Scotland  was an 'expert' member of the Kirkup Inquiry panel into mother and baby deaths at Furness General Hospital. She was later appointed as a member of NHS England's National Maternity Review Team along with Kirkup and James Titcombe, the father whose campaigning resulted in the Kirkup Inquiry.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/mat-transformation/implementing-better-births/mat-review/review-conducted/members/

The Kirkup Inquiry did what some believe it was set up to do. i.e. throw a handful of midwifes to the wolves whilst local and regional senior management, that had consistently failed to address issues and did everything possible to thwart Titcombe, escaped largely scot-free. Needless to say some of the midwifes weren't happy with Kirkup or Titcombe, who was provided with a well-paid job with the CQC and an OBE.

Furness General Hospital is part of the University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust. It was granted the coveted foundation trust status in 2010 when it had the highest hospital related mortality rates in the whole of England. Subsequently millions were spent on management consultancy and 'governance reviews' in Morecambe Bay.

Dr Peter Duffy would later make the mistake of raising his concerns and losing his career as  a consequence.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/16/nhs-trust-calls-police-probe-deaths/

I will ask again...Has anyone on here started to wash their groceries? The meat that comes in the plastic trays, packets of biscuits etc?

I'm curious...

karlypants wrote:I will ask again...Has anyone on here started to wash their groceries? The meat that comes in the plastic trays, packets of biscuits etc?

I'm curious...

Not me.

Obviously I wash/rinse stuff to get the dirt off them before cooking but not the out packaging.

As far as I'm aware the virus doesn't live long on packaging such as food has, it's the metallic stuff such as door handles and taps, etc, that you need to be wary of.

From the Centres for disease control and Prevention website -

Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread from person to person through respiratory droplets. Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds for general food safety. Throughout the day use a tissue to cover your coughing or sneezing, and wash your hands after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, or going to the bathroom.

It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, like a packaging container, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

karlypants wrote:I will ask again...Has anyone on here started to wash their groceries? The meat that comes in the plastic trays, packets of biscuits etc?

I'm curious...

You're taking the piss right? Have you ever tried a Twirl dipped in Fairy Liquid?

Sluffy wrote:

karlypants wrote:I will ask again...Has anyone on here started to wash their groceries? The meat that comes in the plastic trays, packets of biscuits etc?

I'm curious...

Not me.

Obviously I wash/rinse stuff to get the dirt off them before cooking but not the out packaging.

As far as I'm aware the virus doesn't live long on packaging such as food has, it's the metallic stuff such as door handles and taps, etc, that you need to be wary of.

From the Centres for disease control and Prevention website -

Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread from person to person through respiratory droplets. Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds for general food safety. Throughout the day use a tissue to cover your coughing or sneezing, and wash your hands after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, or going to the bathroom.

It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, like a packaging container, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Well the thing is that in the media they have mentioned that the virus can live on paper for up to 24 hours and hard objects such as copper and plastic for up to 72 hours.

I haven't really gone to this trouble as some where they are doing a full washing up bowl full of liquid and soaking stuff in or simply giving it all a wash.

I get why people clean their door handles and other things people touch on a very regular basis but just wondered as I had seen packets of hobnobs and the like bobbing about in a bowl of soapy water.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

karlypants wrote:I will ask again...Has anyone on here started to wash their groceries? The meat that comes in the plastic trays, packets of biscuits etc?

I'm curious...

You're taking the piss right? Have you ever tried a Twirl dipped in Fairy Liquid?

I have yet to try that and it may well give it a twist.

I should try the next time I get a chance to buy one as ASDA home delivery is next to fecking useless now.

karlypants wrote:I get why people clean their door handles and other things people touch on a very regular basis but just wondered as I had seen packets of hobnobs and the like bobbing about in a bowl of soapy water.  

I've taken to dropping biscuits/choc bars into a jar and throwing away the packaging.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

karlypants wrote:I get why people clean their door handles and other things people touch on a very regular basis but just wondered as I had seen packets of hobnobs and the like bobbing about in a bowl of soapy water.  

I've taken to dropping biscuits/choc bars into a jar and throwing away the packaging.

I started opening my bottles of beer in a funny way and pouring it into a pint glass making sure the bottle didn't come into contact and then washing my hand again.

After a couple I thought fuck it.

The advise on my post above is from an American Federal Government Agency, so I thought I'd see what the most current UK advise was - this is the best I could find so far - from the 6th April -


Can I get coronavirus from food packaging?

In theory, yes. But the government says the risk is low.
Scientists are still researching how long the virus can survive in different conditions. But an academic study published in March found that the longest the virus survived on any surface was three days. And certainly, experts suggest, it is very unlikely that a functioning virus could survive after four days.
The amount of time they survive partly depends on what material the surface is made from. For instance, no functional virus was found after 24 hours on cardboard. But it can survive longer on plastic and stainless steel – especially if the virus is encased in water or saliva.
Scientists also believe the amount of “functional” virus decreases on surfaces over time. So even if it’s still present after three days, it’s likely to be less infectious than the surface was to begin with.

So, should you clean food packaging?

The government says the risk of getting coronavirus from packaging is low, particularly if the package has been “moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature”.
The Food Standards Agency (FSA) always tells shops and food businesses to clean the packaging, “in line with usual food safety practices”. But this has always been standard advice for the food industry, and is not specifically about coronavirus.
And the FSA does not extend this advice to ordinary consumers. However, it says that people should wash their hands after handling packaging, following the NHS handwashing advice.

https://www.channel4.com/news/coronavirus-everything-you-need-to-know-about-food-shopping

This seems to be the current official government advice - in a guidance to food businesses published 25th March

Food packaging

The World Health Organization (WHO) advises that the likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low. The risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also very low.
While food packaging is not known to present a specific risk, efforts should be made to ensure it is cleaned and handled in line with usual food safety practices.
Cleaning should be in line with food hygiene practice and the environmental controls set out in the business’ HACCP. Staff should continue to follow existing risk assessments and safe systems of working. No additional precautions need to be taken.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-for-food-businesses/guidance-for-food-businesses-on-coronavirus-covid-19

The Food Standards Agency - of which my previous post referred links back to this Government advise to their industry.

https://www.food.gov.uk/news-alerts/news/fsa-publishes-guidance-for-food-businesses-on-coronavirus-covid-19

Thanks Sluffy. You seem to get paranoid in a situation like this as I do.

Nobody wants to take a risk with it.

Nice to hear that Boris is out of ICU now!

Some good news at least. Remarkable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-52222315