Coronavirus - will we survive?

@Norpig wrote:Well guess who's in lockdown for the fourth time? My lad has a cough so we've ordered a test for him so we need to self isolate AGAIN!

At least you know the drill!

Hope your son is ok.

@Sluffy wrote:

At least you know the drill!

Hope your son is ok.

Thanks Sluffy, he has a bad cough but no temperature but we have to get him tested just in case.

@Norpig wrote:
Thanks Sluffy, he has a bad cough but no temperature but we have to get him tested just in case.

Hope all goes well with that Norpig!

There's a book deal in this somewhere mate. Hope everything's OK.

Well fair play to the Trust i work at, we logged it with them last night and a nurse has been to the house this morning to test my lad. 

My actual department though are useless, sent me home yesterday with a laptop that i can't log on to so i can remote desktop from and still expect me to work from home even though the only thing i can access is email on my own laptop!

Here is one of the many articles relating to the news that antibodies to Covid decline in a matter of weeks which seriously undermines the credibility of herd immunity theory and implies that an annual vaccination programme is the most likely long-term solution for many.
The massive study indicated that health workers and BAME maintained higher levels of antibodies for longer - presumably due to being "topped up" with more frequent contact with infected people.
Older people had a faster rate of decline of antibodies - so is this because they tend to self-isolate more?
Either way it seems that once a person has antibodies to fight the disease regular contact with infected people is a good thing.
So should the strategy be that once we have a vaccine, people vaccinated should be encouraged to have MORE social contact with others rather than less?

My lads test came back negative so we can leave the house now 

@Norpig wrote:My lads test came back negative so we can leave the house now 

Good.

Yip, pleased for you all.

Stay safe.

@Norpig wrote:My lads test came back negative so we can leave the house now 

Great!

The world will be a better place when we have the 5 minute test

A little news snippet that could cause us a big problem - hope not though -

Coronavirus: Denmark imposes lockdowns amid mink covid fears

Danish authorities have said a lockdown will be introduced in some areas over a coronavirus mutation found in mink that can spread to humans.

The government has warned that the effectiveness of any future vaccine could be affected by the mutation.

Authorities said 12 people had been infected with the mutated strain

On Wednesday, Ms Frederiksen said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459

@Sluffy wrote:A little news snippet that could cause us a big problem - hope not though -

Coronavirus: Denmark imposes lockdowns amid mink covid fears

Danish authorities have said a lockdown will be introduced in some areas over a coronavirus mutation found in mink that can spread to humans.

The government has warned that the effectiveness of any future vaccine could be affected by the mutation.

Authorities said 12 people had been infected with the mutated strain

On Wednesday, Ms Frederiksen said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459

That's astoundingly scary. Previously been told that covid mutates slowly and therefore a vaccine would cover (small) mutations for a while but attacking antibody production is genius and if it continues to mutate down that path...well without antibodies we're fucked.
Scientists need to get on with a vaccine that resists the attack and it would be worth checking out if the virus mutation is determined by the host species and consider cross-contamination measures. I'm worried.

Wetherspoons have a new Beer available. The law says you can drink as long as you have a substantial meal.

@sunlight wrote:Wetherspoons have a new Beer available. The law says you can drink as long as you have a substantial meal.

@sunlight wrote:

Do cocktails count?

This tier thing is going to cause a ruckus or three. 
We're T2 - same as an area with treble our infection rate. The area with half our infection rate is the Isle of White. Thing is, we've had a total of two infections in our town and the two that had it have recovered so now we have no infections. The nearest place where someone has Covid is a 20 minute drive away. A lot of people would like to change the boundaries of the Tier system so that they come in line with the science i.e. more targeted so that the most serious restrictions are in the places with the highest growth in transmission - and everyone else can get on with their lives providing we spend a bit of time thinking about movement between areas in different tiers. Do-able, sensible and good for the economy, mental health etc.
So it's coming up for approval in parliament but it's been submitted as an "unamendable" paper by the government.
That means that they are not willing to listen to sensible and positive suggestions to refine it.
The stupidity of not listening to other opinions before finally deciding is a sad indictment of this government.
So the choice the government is giving Parliament is "Do you want no measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus whatsoever - or do you prefer to accept the Tier system as we have laid it out?

There is further irony in this sad tale. Pundits anticipate a Tory revolt and we could end up in a situation where it gets voted through by Labour MPs.

I heard on the radio that when asked "why doesn't the government have a more targeted tier system?" a government spokesman said "it would be too complicated".
FFS.  He might have well have said "Yeah - we're reknowned quitters us English." 
Surely this Conservative Government should be saying "We have the skills, ingenuity and entrepreneurism to solve these problems and continually improve our prospects and global influence as a nation?"
No chance. They are giving Parliament all or nothing.
A lot of folk will not be happy.

At the end of the day it is people that spread the virus and not the government.

Also you have to remember that government in this country is by the 'consent' of the people - which means basically if overwhelming numbers of people don't want to do what the government asks/tells them to do, then there's really not much they can do to stop them doing whatever they want.

We've seen the government basically 'ask' the people to abide by lockdown and after about three or four weeks people got fed up of it and started to break the rules.

Then when the virus inevitably started to spread out of control again the government introduced local lockdowns and got embroiled with all the quibbles by the local Mayors who were from a different political party to the government like the week long stand off with Burnham and his political point scoring stance.

We also have the 'political' game within a game, where you have newly elected Conservative MP's in traditional Labour seats where Covid had got out of hand and where 'lockdown' was unpopular by their electorate - so what should they do, stand up for their own government or vote against it because they represent their electorate - who wont forgive or forget if they don't - and a Conservative party not wishing to lose immediately these northern safe Labour seats they have only just won!

I'm sure everybody will have done their sums and worked out that these Tory 'rebels' can vote against the government (so stand up for their electorate) knowing the vote will still be carried.

Did I mention that it's all a game?

So lets move on to area 'lockdowns' - yes of course it's harsh to be in level 2 if there's no Covid in your 'village' but if Covid is active 20 minutes away - and people are the ones who spread it - then does anyone really think that you are 'locked up' in a Tier 2 area and everybody is completely free and 'unlocked' just 20 minutes away, then how many people will simply just jump into their cars and drive 20 minutes and go to the pubs and restaurants there which are open whilst those at home are shut?

Loads will.

And that's exactly what we saw with people driving halfway across the country to go to the sea side when their areas where under lockdown!

The only real way you can stop it if you more or less put most of the country into the same tier - which in effect they've done - the north and midlands in tier 3 and the rest of the country in tier 2 with just a few tweaks here and there.

Then there is the question of should we even have any lockdowns anyway?

My view is basically is 'the greater good' one, meaning protect the elderly and sick and let everyone else get on with their lives, rather than 'stop the world' to protect the few.

To my mind the positive cases have been strangely consistent since the schools and universities went back and have in general terms averaged around the low twenty thousands over that period - which is rather odd!

It is odd because we are led to believe cases 'double' about every fortnight - and that hasn't happened - as I say its seems to have remained constant - why is this?

My reasoning is that it is because of three 'mini' waves - as one falls the next one rises - and so the amount is about the same.

I think the numbers shot up dramatically (as I expected they would!) when the universities went back and the kids went wild being away from the parents for the first time.  As the cases eventually began to drop you had the next mini wave of the virus catching hold in the communities in the north - and as the numbers dropped from the uni students they were replaced by the rise in the community towns and city's such as Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Bradford, etc.

Once their numbers started to fall the third mini wave of the community's in the midlands and the south took off and replaced them - and so the numbers kept at a surprising consistency over a period of several weeks.

High positive cases in themselves aren't a problem it is the effect on the NHS that is and hospitals have began to fell the strain.

If this was summer I don't think even now it would have been such an issue but the big worry is the seasonal demand on the NHS over winter and if it could cope with the normal seasonal increase plus Covid as well - and clearly the thinking is that it could not.

The government is trapped between a rock and a hard place, don't put the country into tier 2 and 3 and the NHS may well fail, or save the NHS and have everyone moaning about being in lockdown.

Politically they fear deaths getting out of hand more than anything else, they know people won't follow local lockdowns - they'll just drive 20 minutes to where there isn't a lockdown instead (and pass on the virus in doing so), so really the government has done the only sensible thing it could do - even though it is unpopular with many such as Wanderlust.

And fwiw Broadland had more positive cases today (and yesterday) than Norwich!

Burnham was standing up honourably for the people he was elected to represent, as is right and proper. The government were the ones playing sneakily.

@wanderlust wrote:
Do cocktails count?

Its a meal!

I think the Tories have a Tier for Bolton thats something more in keeping with a Prison Yard for the Xmas period.

@sunlight wrote:I think the Tories have a Tier for Bolton thats something more in keeping with a Prison Yard for the Xmas period.

In my borough (Broadlands) - which at 552 km sq is 10 times bigger in area than Bolton (55 km sq) - there are currently 113 cases per 100k and we're T2.
Luton (which is even smaller than Bolton) has over 300 cases per 100k - and is also T2 for some reason.
Bolton must have loads of cases per 100k. As must Slough for that matter as it's a paltry 32 km sq. It's a case of population density driving new infections which is why more thought is needed about travel.
But the government refuses to give Parliament the opportunity to come up with a more refined approach to tiering in order to reduce stress and keep the economy going.
Do Bolton and Slough have more cases than Luton? I'm not so sure.

We  are been encouraged (forced) to do twice weekly Covid tests where i work, Its a home test that gives you a result in 30 minutes.

Done 2 so far and all ok but have to do it for 12 weeks!

@wanderlust wrote:
 It's a case of population density driving new infections which is why more thought is needed about travel.

When I have been to Bolton lately and driven through it, it is extremely overpopulated.

@wanderlust wrote:

@sunlight wrote:I think the Tories have a Tier for Bolton thats something more in keeping with a Prison Yard for the Xmas period.

In my borough (Broadlands) - which at 552 km sq is 10 times bigger in area than Bolton (55 km sq) - there are currently 113 cases per 100k and we're T2.
Luton (which is even smaller than Bolton) has over 300 cases per 100k - and is also T2 for some reason.
Bolton must have loads of cases per 100k. As must Slough for that matter as it's a paltry 32 km sq. It's a case of population density driving new infections which is why more thought is needed about travel.
But the government refuses to give Parliament the opportunity to come up with a more refined approach to tiering in order to reduce stress and keep the economy going.
Do Bolton and Slough have more cases than Luton? I'm not so sure.

As per yesterday

Slough 350 (11th out of 315) per 100k population seven day average
Luton 301 (27th)
Bolton 270 (40th)
Windsor 137 (180th)
Broadland 111 (217th)


The simple truth is that with or without 'refine' tuning people simply will travel to areas where there are less restrictions.

I know personally of people in Slough (T3) already planning to go to Windsor (T2) which is just 3 miles away, on Thursday when the lockdown is lifted.

Anyone think Windsor's rate will be rising soon because there's going to be half of Slough shopping here next week!

Would it have been better to put Slough (currently with the 11th highest rate in the country) into T2 with Windsor (180th) or put Windsor into T3?

Windsor and Broadland are fairly similar in the table in terms of new infections and position - would you be happy if Norwich was 11th in the table instead and the government did nothing and kept them in tier 2 with you?

Whatever you do you just can't win.

The priority criteria has to be not letting the local NHS's fail. I can only assume Slough's hospital must be near breaking point with Covid patients?

It seems to me that the plan is to bear down on the virus as much as it can to get cases down for Christmas, knowing folk will go stupid for a week during then and New Year and thus when they go back into lockdown in January there will be that many less cases to deal with than if the pre-Christmas 'bear down' hadn't happened, and hopefully by February things can be eased with hopefully the vaccine starting to become rolled out to those most at risk.

It does actually makes sense if you view it that way.

@Norpig wrote:We  are been encouraged (forced) to do twice weekly Covid tests where i work, Its a home test that gives you a result in 30 minutes.

Done 2 so far and all ok but have to do it for 12 weeks!

I bet it gets right up your nose!

@Sluffy wrote:

I bet it gets right up your nose!

Certainly does 

@Sluffy wrote:At the end of the day it is people that spread the virus and not the government.

A party of 200 people at a Nottingham student halls of residence was broken up by police.

The gathering in the courtyard outside St Peter's Court, Radford, which houses University of Nottingham students, stopped after midnight.

It was one of a number of parties the force broke up overnight, prompting a plea to follow the rules.

Shortly after 21:00 GMT officers handed out five £200 fines after responding to reports of a party in a field in Gonalston.

They said they were still trying to find the organiser and a driver who crashed into a police car as they fled the scene.

At about 22:30 officers were called to a flat in Pilcher Gate, in the city centre, where they gave £200 fines to 21 people.

Shortly after 23:30 two people were arrested in Valley Road, Carlton, on suspicion of assaulting a police officer who had been at another illegal gathering.

Just after midnight officers broke up a "large party" in St Ann's and issued the organiser with a summons to appear in court.

Det Supt Andrew Gowan said:

"We understand that this is a difficult time but there really are no excuses for this kind of behaviour where people are blatantly ignoring the restrictions in such large numbers."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-55123543

Just one city on one night - just think how much is going on every day up and down the country!

Still it's all the governments fault though, isn't it!