Is there going to be a war?

A shocking video clip has been showing on social media today, of a captured Ukrainian soldier being killed in cold blood.

Seems that it genuinely happened as the Ukrainian president spoke about it this evening.

I have posted the 'pixelated' video of his killing below - but if you want to view it you will have to open up the video yourselves by clicking on the 'spoiler' box as it isn't something anyone should be seeing accidentally.

Investigators established that he was a sniper of the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the Territorial Defence of the Chernihiv region, Matsievskyi Oleksandr Ihorovych. - and what he said was "Slava Ukraini" which translates to 'Glory to Ukraine'.  (you may need to turn up the volume to hear him say it).

NOT WORK SAFE:

 
Matsievskyi Oleksandr Ihorovych. - RIP


The unpixellated video is out there if you really need to see it for yourselves.

BBC's report -

Ukraine war: President Zelensky vows to find killers of unarmed soldier with cigarette
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64872623

If anyone is interested this is what has been reported in America about the US drone that the Russians brought down yesterday.

If anyone is interested, Prof. Samuel Greene* of Kings College London has done a twitter thread about the outcome of the meeting with Putin and Xi over the last two days.  It a simple read (the only thing to note is that the abbreviation UNSC stands for the United Nations Security Council).

To read the thread in full click on the blue 'link' inside the tweet I've posted.

I found it a very interesting analysis from someone who knows about these things.

* https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/samuel-greene

War of the Roses today......

Strange goings on today!

It looks like Russia is fighting itself!

It's a bit complicated to explain but over the last decade or so Russia has encourage privately owned armies to spring up, the most famous being called Wagner.

Russia has done this and gives arms to these private armies, so they can can fight in foreign country's (notably in Africa) overthrow regimes and take control of things like diamond mines and Russia can claim (falsely) that they have nothing to do with the likes of Wagner.

Since the war in Ukraine Wagner is fighting alongside the real Russian army who aren't really doing so good.  Wagner on the other hand is!

Wagner has done so because it simply doesn't value their own men's lifes - many of whom have been recruited from prisons.

The leader of Wagner has made himself very high profile and popular with the Russian people, so much so that Putin has wanted to bring him down a peg or two and recently ordered that all private armies now have to sign up to come under the control of the Russian Army.

Wagner's leader has more or less told 'them' to get stuffed and has refused to do so.

Today it is reported that the leader of the Russian Army ordered his troops to attack Wagner.

In return Wagner's leader is apparently marching his army towards the leader of the Russian's army to presumably capture him or worse?

Everything is a bit crazy for now - no one is absolutely sure all this is genuine but it does appear it is???

Watch this space, type of thing...

It might turn out to be nothing or it might be the start of some sort of a coup?

The leader of Wagner is a bloke called - Prigozhin  and the leader of the Russian army is called - Shoigu.

Shoigu is Putin's man.

Prigozhin is more extreme than Putin!

Whichever way this turns out isn't good news for Ukraine as both will still want to carry on with the war.

Good summary that Bonce, thanks.

To my mind the factor that I think will decide this is if the Russian army has a force that's left that is capable of facing down Prigozhin?

It's pretty clear that the Russian army is fully stretched in Ukraine, both in terms of men and equipment, so where are they going to find say 50,000 trained men and tanks to take on Prigozhin from?

They are going to have to strip the country bare of most of it's internal forces - who are basically there to stop people taking to the streets protesting or strip their army bare in Ukraine and lose chunks of the country (and possibly the war?) to Ukraine.

Will the Russian army even want to fight Wagner - would they go over to his side?

Up to now I don't think any meaningful shots have been fired by either side so it will be interesting to see Prigozhin's next move is in Rostov where I imagine he will establish his base.

The latest at time of writing is that Prigozhin has already had a meeting with two very, very high level Russian officials and that Putin is about to speak to the nation...

Here's the video of the 'alleged' meeting -

Just for information Shoigu is the Minister of Defence - meaning that really he is a politician and NOT a soldier - although he nearly always is seen in uniform.

Gerasimov IS the head of Russia's armed forces but always seen as subordinate to Shoigu.

The two are both loyal to Putin and Putin won't throw them under the bus or if he did, Putin's days are numbered.

Prigozhin want's the heads of both Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Prigozhin (and everyone else really) has never been critical of Putin - but have severely criticised Shoigu and Gerasimov countless times - and as Shoigu and Gerasimov are just puppets of Putin just doing what he wants - he (and everyone else) is blaming Putin for how shit the war is going for Russia.

Prigozhin has been forced into a corner - with his never ending criticisms of Shoigu and Gerasimov (indirect criticism of Putin) he knows that if he has to sign over his private army his life is under threat.

The only way he will be safe is if he overthrows Putin - or at least make Putin fear him enough to hide in his bunker.

Maybe the outcome will be Putin giving up Shoigu and Gerasimov (there's some talk of Shoigu going into exile in the UAE - no idea how true that is though) and putting one of Prigozhin's men in charge of the Russian army.

I can't see Putin would want that but then again where does he find an army to fight Wagner and Ukraine at the same time?

Things are moving pretty quickly, and I can honestly say I didn't see this coming. Momentous times.

boltonbonce wrote:Things are moving pretty quickly, and I can honestly say I didn't see this coming. Momentous times.

Tbh, the ISW (The Institute for the Study of War) which is basically Washington's 'think tank' predicted something like this might happen for well over a year now.

In short, there is endemic corruption throughout Russia, the country is rife with it from top to bottom.  This has effected every facet of life including the armed forces.

Money had been corruptly siphoned off in all sorts of ways from none maintenance of weapons and equipment, to fitting much cheaper and inferior components to newly build guns and aircraft and even overstating how many men are in each regiment (ghost soldiers) so wages are paid to men who simply don't exist and pocketed by those in charge.

The net result is that Russia's armed forces aren't up to the job and rely on simply throwing bodies in front of Ukrainian bullets until they run out.

I'm not making this up by the way.

Because the army isn't up to the fight, Putin has had to call in these private armies such as Wagner to make the breakthroughs in the war.

These private armies are armed by the Russian army and conflict has taken place between the two in that Wagner get's (or got) priority.  

Wagner's success has clashed with the Russian army (Shoigu and Gerasimov) failure so Putin needs (needed?) Prigozhin and was prepared to put up with his criticism of them - and thus Prigozhin get too big for his boots and Putin now sees him as a rival for power - so he's swung back behind Shoigu and Gerasimov and told them to take Wagner under their control - thus totally isolating Prigozhin.

The ISW correctly identified that having private armies not under one overall command would lead to massive problems and so it seems to have proved.

The writing has been on the wall for some time when Putin stopped Prigozhin recruiting from jails (and the Russian army stated doing so itself - the so called newly formed Storm Z units), it then stopped supplying Wagner with munitions and in short forced Prigozhin to burn through his troops instead.

Prigozhin unilaterally said he was removing Wagner from the war (to rest and rebuild was how it was put) and Putin retaliated by ordering Shoigu and Gerasimov to have private armies to sign up to Russian army control - which Prigozhin won't do because his life expectancy would be dramatically reduced if he had.

I guess the question now is how loyal is Wagner to Prigozhin - will they fight and die for him - if so the next question is where can Putin find enough troops to fight him and fight the war at the same time.

Putin speech seems to suggest he is belligerent but can he deliver against Prigozhin if Prigozhin's men remain loyal?


ISA's todays daily report - (one day in arrears - Washington time)

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023

I'm very wary of the ISW.

Putin's speech to the nation.

Sounds to me he's hoping Wagner soldiers will walk away and leave Prigozhin on his own, so won't need to fight him.



Full morning of 24 June address by Putin to the nation in regards to the military coup:

"I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically.

I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny.

Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned.

We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history.

It’s a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side.

Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people.

Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917 when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.

Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen.

We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers.

Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation.

Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.

Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment.

They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions.

Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked.

As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens.

Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions.

I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.

It's one of those days when you just can't look away. Hard to keep up.

boltonbonce wrote:I'm very wary of the ISW.

You're right to be wary of all such institutions - you simply don't know who funds them and thus how independent their opinions actually are.

However it is the best source I've found of strategic commentary on the war and I like the fact that they've freely admitted they've got things wrong from time to time.

Tbh most of their reports are boring and somewhat repetitive but they do give people like me some understanding of what is going on and why.

I try to read a broad range of reporting from Ukraine and work on the basis that whichever side of the conflict you read, there will contain a natural bias towards 'its' side whether done deliberately or subconsciously.

boltonbonce wrote:It's one of those days when you just can't look away. Hard to keep up.

I think there is going to have to be some sort of a standoff now - Putin will need to raise forces to attack Prigozhin or Prigozhin needs to march on Moscow, both of which is going to take time.

Seems most people are asking for calm and the tide does not seem to be swinging against Putin so far.

Wonder what Ukraine makes of all this?

And what they will do?

If they attack, will Russia capitulate, or will it force Putin and Wagner to kiss and make up and fight back?

Seems from this the march to Moscow has already begun!

This clearly isn’t going to end well. Two despicable individuals vying for power, neither of which will provide any respite for the war in Ukraine or relations with the west which indeed could be worse if Putin falls to Prigozhin? Things are though moving quickly so there could be a resolution quickly. It will certainly be a test of the military’s loyalty to Putin which I’m not sure is exactly robust?

A bit of an idiots guide to what is going on and why, right now.

Is this a coup? What is Prigozhin doing in Russia?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66006880

10:27
Wagner seizes military facilities in second city - BBC sources
BBC News Russian sources are now saying that Wagner fighters have taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh, a halfway point between Rostov-on-Don (where Wagner also says it's in charge) and the capital Moscow.

Voronezh city officials are yet to publicly comment on the claim.

Meanwhile, Voronezh region governor Aleksandr Gusev has warned that there are many fake reports circulating about a movement of an armoured column in the region.

He also says the Russian armed forces are now carrying out "operational and combat measures" in the Voronezh region as part of the early declared counter-terrorist operation.

The map below shows you where Voronezh is. It's still a long way from Moscow, which the Wagner group has threatened to march on.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142