Why I now think Dougie will go/should go

Dougie's failure to produce results will see him out of the club sooner or later, but there are a lot of mitigating factors that the Board will have to take into account including:

• Stuck with a highly overrated squad, half of whom will never get a contract as good as the one they're on ever again, so will be difficult to get out of the club.
  
• A fair degree of bad luck
  
• Fans failure to accept how deep in the shit we really are - and therefore unrealistic short-term expectations which are translated into vocal criticism of the manager's every move
  
• Financially hamstrung
  

That's all well and good and I sympathise with Dougie for having such a difficult job to deal with, however there is one thing that has finally convinced me that he won't be around for long and that it 's not likely to get any better whilst he remains:


In the last few games we've started well but faded dramatically the longer the game goes on.
To play the 451 system that Dougie believes in we need very athletic players who can defend in numbers but then break forward in numbers to support the striker and we simply haven't got them.
Playing a lone striker is tactically fine providing that whenever the ball is moved forwards there are runners from midfield getting forward to support the attack - and when they get there they should all be capable of scoring. We haven't got players who offer sufficient goal threat - although most of the time, they don't even get into a position to have the opportunity. Worse still, the quality of passing and delivery to set up chances in the final third is poor.
Dougie talks about getting in players with "the right DNA" (box to box quality midfielders and FBs that can get up and down the park all day long?) and maybe we'll eventually get them, but we haven't got them ATM so why persist with a system that our current players are not capable of executing correctly? 
There's nothing wrong with the 451 system, but it just won't work with this overrated squad.


For me, all the talk about "not being attacking enough" slightly misses the point - it should be amended to "not having the players with either the energy or quality to offer an attacking threat playing this system".


Dougie is capable of change, but it now seems as though he only does it reactively e.g. bringing on Moritz and Mavies after we go behind - I doubt he'd have done that if Burnley hadn't scored as he knew it was a massive risk to surrender the midfield in search of a goal - and he was right.


I've been very patient, but now it comes down to the simple fact that unless he adopts a completely different system and approach that better suits the players we are currently stuck with we will continue to struggle and the pressure will continue to rise until he's gone. 


At least a short -term change in system may bring us mediocrity which would probably suffice during the long transition period that the club needs.


But Dougie comes across as a dogmatic man - a man who sticks to his principles through thick and thin. Right now it's not going well but I can't see Dougie even considering caving in under the pressure.


So nothing is likely to change results-wise until the squad changes and that won't happen anywhere near quick enough to save Dougie who will continue trying to play top quality football with the wrong players until he is replaced.


We'll probably get a manager who can deliver short term mediocrity.

Does anyone know if Jimmy Philips and Sammy Lee are still at Bolton or did Dougie turf them out one replace with his own grecian like gods?

If they are still at the club then other than dougies pay off i'm pretty sure they would remain on the same wage to take over first team duties until the end of the season and if they did then prove themselves be offered the role on a full time basis.

At the ned of the day all our expectations are so low at the moment that if they can help us to avoid relegation then that would be a win for us until next season.

OR would it be better to go down AGAIN, and let them rebuild the team?

After working in sales for years if you don't hit your targets and you don't perform you get sacked without any payout.  Why should he be able to underperform for 6 months and be able to get away with it.

After a month of poor results he should go on a performance improvement plan.  if things don't pick up the next month, Verbal warning, still no improvement, Final Warning, Still no improvement, SACKED without any cost to the club as he hasn't done what he was employed to do.

It's a joke that every industry in the world can do this other than football.  it should be the same with players too.  We all have contracts when we start working somewhere, if we don't adhere to them we simply say bye bye!

So to sum it up wanderlust....you now agree with what I told you 4 months ago.

Unfortunately Dougie seems to have run out of ideas with this squad, he's tried different personnel and systems but hasn't got enough about him tactically to find a way of getting results this season. I think his style is reliant upon a solid defence first and foremost and we just haven't had that all season. It's going back to the Coyle days where we know we'll concede at some point couple that with our lack of goals we're in trouble.

I think the view that 442 would solve all of our problems is too simple, we don't have a dynamic enough central midfield to play 2 wingers and 2 strikers. Motivation is what we need at the moment as we can't change the players and at the moment they look shot of confidence. Maybe a change would do that in the short term, but looking at the list of candidates for the job I seriously worry for us long term.

y2johnny wrote:Does anyone know if Jimmy Philips and Sammy Lee are still at Bolton or did Dougie turf them out one replace with his own grecian like gods?

If they are still at the club then other than dougies pay off i'm pretty sure they would remain on the same wage to take over first team duties until the end of the season and if they did then prove themselves be offered the role on a full time basis.

At the ned of the day all our expectations are so low at the moment that if they can help us to avoid relegation then that would be a win for us until next season.

OR would it be better to go down AGAIN, and let them rebuild the team?

After working in sales for years if you don't hit your targets and you don't perform you get sacked without any payout.  Why should he be able to underperform for 6 months and be able to get away with it.

After a month of poor results he should go on a performance improvement plan.  if things don't pick up the next month, Verbal warning, still no improvement, Final Warning, Still no improvement, SACKED without any cost to the club as he hasn't done what he was employed to do.

It's a joke that every industry in the world can do this other than football.  it should be the same with players too.  We all have contracts when we start working somewhere, if we don't adhere to them we simply say bye bye!

Why on earth would they do that?

Natasha Whittam wrote:So to sum it up wanderlust....you now agree with what I told you 4 months ago.

I'm coming to the same conclusion but for different reasons than those you've given although I'm glad you've recently taken on board what I've written about the players in general and the midfield in particular.

Still think that what Dougie is trying to achieve long-term is admirable, but it's too ambitious at this stage and he's had plenty of opportunity to settle for a more practical approach to our unfortunate circumstances. I was prepared to give him time to settle for something less than his ideals - even with this squad we could be at least mediocre - but it doesn't look like he'll ever settle for anything less and is therefore likely to get sacked before he can see the necessary squad transition out.

I expect him to persist, to fail and to get replaced with a manager who will deliver mediocrity and ergo guaranteed survival.
My only hope is that the new boy doesn't lose sight of the bigger picture and continues recruiting affordable young prospects and offloading our overpaid has beens with a view to building a more exciting and capable team for the future.

to boost their profile on the premise that they get the job on a full time basis with a better wedge.

all companies do it.

Lusty,

Would you concede then that not only has he failed to take us forward, he has also actually taken us backwards, as by your own admission, if the new manager "delivers mediocrity and ergo guaranteed survival", it will be seen as a success.

Whereas 12 months ago, "success" would have been defined as getting promoted to the Prem.

Breadman wrote:Lusty,

Would you concede then that not only has he failed to take us forward, he has also actually taken us backwards, as by your own admission, if the new manager "delivers mediocrity and ergo guaranteed survival", it will be seen as a success.

Whereas 12 months ago, "success" would have been defined as getting promoted to the Prem.

12 months ago, success would only have been defined as getting promoted to the prem by the idiots who believed the media hype about our squad although in mitigation, none of them/us knew the full extent of our financial woes at that stage and still probably believed we would have some wriggle room in the transfer market if required.

Has Freedman failed to take us forward? Results-wise definitely. 
Addressing our long term problems-wise? Too early to tell but the signs aren't bad. He's made a decent start on reducing the wage bill and has signed a few for the development squad, but time will tell if they turn out to be good signings.

What worries me is that we force freedman out fearing relegation and all the groundwork is abandoned. I'm equally worried what will happen if he stays and we slide into the bottom 3. Either way it isn't going to be pretty.

Not even sure another manager could guarantee survival with this squad anyway so the worst case scenario is we get relegated AND undo the groundwork.

That said, I think we'll survive by the skin of our teeth anyway, but the mood around the club as we get to grips with the reality of the lack of quality we have may well mean that Dougie won't.