Brexit Watch

With only 18% of people now thinking that Brexit is a success, I came across some very interesting research on the LSE website into the psychology of Brexit - which suggests a possible approach to overcoming the entrenched tribal perspectives.


Basically, rejoining the EU is unacceptable, a "hard Brexit" is unacceptable but a new deal with the EU (Norway model) is acceptable to the majority of both Leave and Remain voters.


The results show that a party which supported a new deal with the EU would be supported by both Leavers and Remainers and the survey results are very revealing:





Richard P Bentall, Paul Willner, and Todd K. Hartman present findings from a recent survey measuring Leave and Remain identities, and which also tested for how acceptable participants found specific policies aimed at Britain’s future relationship with Europe. They write that the policy of remaining outside the EU but seeking closer alignment with it is not toxic for people who had identified as either Leavers or Remainers.
With little hyperbole, Brexit remains a clear and present danger to the continued survival of the United Kingdom. Ever since the 2016 EU Referendum was first announced, this issue has infused British politics with turbulence, disagreement, and polarisation among political elites and the general public. Yet, there is no sign that the infighting will end any time soon, despite the fact that the UK formally left the European Union in 2020. The present Conservative government has only exacerbated matters by pursuing an ‘ultra-hard’ Brexit that alienates at least half of the UK population. Continuing along this path undermines the social and political coherence of the country, perhaps even fatally – it is not beyond imagination that Scotland could choose to become independent or that a new political settlement will emerge in Northern Ireland; support for Welsh independence has also increased since the referendum.
Brexit identities
Researchers have demonstrated that people form identities (i.e., how we define ourselves and internalise our group memberships) extraordinarily quickly. During political crises such as the English Civil War in the 17^th century, for example, people divided themselves into Monarchists and Parliamentarians, even though there was little ideological difference between them (at least at the outset). Prior to Prohibition in the United States, citizens split into ‘drys’ and ‘wets’, and in the Dreyfus Affair in 19^th century France, the public fractured into Dreyfusards and anti-Dreyfusards. In each case, the conflict lasted more than a decade, and bad feelings continued for long afterwards.
More recently, British people formed ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ identities surrounding the 2016 referendum that have persisted, and in many cases, may even be stronger determinants of political behaviour than traditional party affiliations. Although identities can be associated with self-esteem and resilience to mental ill-health, holding strong group identities can also be a source of conflict. For instance, scholars have recently shown that Brexit identities are associated with out-group derogation – both Leavers and Remainers, for instance, think the other side is less intelligent, and they would be unhappy if their children were to marry someone of the opposing group. Moreover, Brexit identities appear to be associated with high levels of psychological distress. In a recent study, we discovered that people who identify strongly as either Leavers or Remainers score higher on clinical measures of depression and anxiety compared to those without strong Brexit identities.
Finding a way beyond Brexit (identities)
Recent polling reveals a remarkable stability of public opinion on the issue of Brexit, with roughly even splits on either side of the debate. However, a clear majority of the British public report dissatisfaction with the way that the issue is being handled and agree that ‘Brexit is going badly’. These results suggest that it may be possible to bridge the divide between Leavers and Remainers by finding a post-Brexit policy that provokes the least negative reaction amongst the maximum number of people. Stated differently, sensible politicians could seek policies that are unrelated to entrenched Leave and Remain identities, and thus avoid exacerbating further political conflict.
To explore potential ways forward, we conducted a nationally representative survey among the British public in December 2021 (more details about the C19PRC longitudinal study can be found here). In addition to measuring Leave and Remain identities, our survey included items designed to test different policies aimed at Britain’s future relationship with Europe. Rather than asking people whether they supported each policy, we instead asked participants about the acceptability of specific policies. The acceptability of three distinct post-Brexit policies are shown in Table 1, which tabulates responses for the whole sample, as well as by whether respondents had voted to leave or remain in the 2016 EU Referendum.

The policy of ‘an independent, sovereign UK’ calling for a hard Brexit is highly unacceptable to 64% of Remain voters but also to 24% of Leave voters. Similarly, the policy named ‘rethink Brexit’ which advocates for a new referendum to re-join the EU shows the reverse pattern: it is unacceptable to 56% of Leave voters and even 11% of Remain voters. However, the policy of ‘a new deal with Europe’, which encourages cooperation and closer ties with Europe, is acceptable to both Leave and Remain voters, and it is only unacceptable to a small minority of voters of both types. This pattern can be seen more easily in Figure 1 (those who did or could not vote are excluded). Indeed, a better deal for Europe appears to be more acceptable to leave voters than a sovereign independent United Kingdom.
Figure 1: % of Leave and Remain voters who find the three post-Brexit policies acceptable (green), unacceptable (red) or neither (grey).

Can these findings be explained in terms of the way that the policies relate to people’s identities? Support for ‘an independent sovereign Britain’ is strongly correlated with Leave identities (r = .56, p < .001), and negatively with Remain (r – .38, p < .001); the combination of both types of identity in a regression analysis accounted for 34% of the variation in support for this policy. Similarly, support for ‘rethinking Brexit’ correlated highly with Remain identities (r = .57, p < .001) and negatively with Leave (r = – .47, p < .001); combining both in a regression model accounted for 39% of support for the policy.
However, the findings for ‘a new deal with Europe’ were strikingly different. Support for this policy was entirely uncorrelated with either Remain (r = -. 03, p = .22) or Leave identities (r = – .02, p = .34), and combining both variables in a regression model failed to explain any of the variation in support for the policy. For readers who are uncomfortable with statistics, these findings can be simply restated as follows: the policy of remaining outside the EU but seeking closer alignment with it is not toxic for people who had identified as either Leavers or Remainers.
Final thoughts
Leave and remain identities are a crucial key to understanding the present mass psychology of Brexit and the continuing division and conflict over Britain’s future relationship with Europe. A political party which explicitly and vocally supported a new deal with Europe would likely benefit at the ballot box by support from both Leavers and Remainers. The only impediment to this policy at the moment would seem to be the unwillingness of politicians in either major party to advocate it, either because they have tied their fortunes to the ‘ultra-hard’ Brexit currently being pursued by the Conservative Party, or because they are too timid to make the case for a closer relationship with the EU without re-joining it. Perhaps a final conclusion is that Britain could be better served by its politicians if they just listened more carefully.

Nothing new here so give it up Lusty. We’re out and we ain’t going back in and as usual the one thing the writers of this tosh neglect to include ( and you for that matter) is the complete intransigence of the EU to fair negotiation and acceptance that we are now a completely Independent country. Surely it’s no surprise to anyone that a majority of both Leave and Remain voters are up for Q2, why wouldn’t they be but until you tell that to Brussels, it won’t happen.

Whitesince63 wrote:Nothing new here so give it up Lusty. We’re out and we ain’t going back in and as usual the one thing the writers of this tosh neglect to include ( and you for that matter) is the complete intransigence of the EU to fair negotiation and acceptance that we are now a completely Independent country. Surely it’s no surprise to anyone that a majority of both Leave and Remain voters are up for Q2, why wouldn’t they be but until you tell that to Brussels, it won’t happen.

Did you actually read it mate?

Look again. You may well be in the small minority of Leave voters that wouldn't be happy with a renegotiation - a paltry 15% or so - but as Brexit continues to fail on all fronts you may end up as the only person in the country who doesn't.

Anyway, you've never given a single reason why you think and independent UK with a Norway style deal that could save our failing economy is a bad idea so I'm looking forward to reading that.

wanderlust wrote:Did you actually read it mate?

Look again. You may well be in the small minority of Leave voters that wouldn't be happy with a renegotiation - a paltry 15% or so - but as Brexit continues to fail on all fronts you may end up as the only person in the country who doesn't.

Anyway, you've never given a single reason why you think and independent UK with a Norway style deal that could save our failing economy is a bad idea so I'm looking forward to reading that.

Why the fuck do you keep banging on and on and on about Brexit for?

There's fuck all you, me or any fucker else can do about it - it's done, finished, ended - if it turns out absolutely catastrophic we can't change things, we can't turn the clock back, we can't return to what we had!

I've been telling you this from the very start of this thread - so why the fuck do you keep harping on about it KNOWING no one can change anything - it has to run its course no matter how bad it may well get.

You voted for Brexit remember, you were one of those who set us on this course - about time you grew up and accept the consequences of your decision to vote to leave - and how utterly stupid you were to believe that politicians don't tell lies when they are after your vote!

Just because you are pissed off with being made a mug and you feel the need to spew your bitterness on here, it won't change anything - it's done, we've left the EU and life moves on.

You need to also.

We are ALL sick of your continual bitching about it - it needs to stop.

It really does.

Another one who obviously didn't read the research. Or notice that Brexit has been in the news a lot this week.

And when the fallout from Brexit stops destroying my country I'll stop mentioning it.

Why would I or anyone else be interested how people would vote for policies not even formulated or under a government not even seeking them???

I might be wrong but I think the rest of us are absolutely sick to death of your ongoing obsession, bile and hatred over Brexit - something that no one can now possibly do anything about for at least the next decade or more - and for that reason I'm locking the thread.

No matter how bad it might get I simply don't see any reason to continue to rage over something that no one can possibly change.

I'm sure you can find plenty other places on social media where you can rant on with fellow nutjobs to your hearts content.

For all the good it will achieve...