Brexit Watch

On the good news front, a deal has been struck with NZ for importing a wider range of NZ wines and manuka honey. Yay!

I suspect they got the negotiators pissed then gave them a sweetener



I'll get me coat....

wanderlust wrote:On the good news front, a deal has been struck with NZ for importing a wider range of NZ wines and manuka honey. Yay!

I suspect they got the negotiators pissed then gave them a sweetener



I'll get me coat....

You see, you finally found a positive lusty?  

Actually I can’t remember the last time I bought a bottle of European white wine as Marlborough Sauvignon knocks French for six every time and Chilean isn’t far behind, so it’s great news for me. I must admit to a nice Bordeaux red occasionally though, I am partial to a good glass of Pauillac.

I don’t know how they pulled it off but I’m glad they did.

Whitesince63 wrote:


I don’t know how they pulled it off but I’m glad they did.

It was easy - they just sold our farmers down the river by opening the door to cheap lamb and beef imports.

Even the Daily Fail is outraged.

I got the impression that Sunak was in love with Office of Budget Responsibility after he (mis)quoted them extensively in his budget show - but not only have they corrected him, they've come out and said that Brexit will cause massive long-term damage to the economy and have twice as much impact as the pandemic did and for many years to come (various media)
Suspect this love affair is on the back burner until he needs to (mis)quote them again.

Problem is he's borrowed money by betting on a rise in GDP - the GDP which OBR reckon has been shrunk by by Brexit.

With the Brexit hit to the economy totalling an estimated £44 Billion to date it's looking increasingly like the game of brinkmanship over Article 16 will take the impact to a new level as Boris seems to be seriously considering reneging on the deal despite business leaders begging him not to start a trade war with the EU.
Such a move would finish off the DUP's support for the Tories and there are likely to be rifts within the party itself - but it will take at least a couple of years for the full impact to be felt by consumers other than the acceleration of current trends as product ranges continue to disappear from the shops, manufacturers face parts and materials shortages, prices continue to climb and exporters are hit.
I reckon Blojo is daft enough to do it.

Shell are moving their head offices to the UK after the Dutch government retained a big company dividend tax and Shell were facing legal action for failing to control emissions. No doubt they'll be welcomed with open arms and allowed to shit in our back yard for a change.

"Shell in a statement said the changes were designed to strengthen the company's "competitiveness and accelerate both shareholder distributions and the delivery of its strategy to become a net-zero emissions business".
It insisted that the plans "will have no impact on" a Dutch court ruling that the company must slash greenhouse gas emissions."

As predicted, the ‘freedoms’ we won from Brexit are allowing nothing more than a drop in standards. Meanwhile reports today saying that half of UK businesses have decreased or halted trading with the EU since Brexit. 

Wonder what it would take for a Brexiteer to admit this is shit?

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Meanwhile reports today saying that half of UK businesses have decreased or halted trading with the EU since Brexit. 

The stat doesn't paint the whole picture Troy because a lot of smaller businesses only did a little bit of business with the EU anyway and it made sense to not bother when it became unprofitable as they could continue trading domestically or elsewhere in the world.
It's the big volume businesses like wholesale food and textiles importers, manufacturers and assemblers that can't stop trading with the EU that the impact will be felt most - basically because in many cases there is no alternative supplier e.g. parts for car assembly plants.
Folk don't seem to realise just how much of our basics are imported from the EU - stuff like the vegetables we eat for example - 45% comes from the EU (we import £9.1 billion p.a. and export just £1 billion. We import 84% of all the fruit we eat and 19% of that is from Spain alone.
Hence the widely held concerns if a desperate Boris triggers a trade war.

I think many Brexiteers have acknowledged the current situation is shit T.R.O.Y but you always seem to consider it’s the UK’s fault because it serves your agenda. I personally think Shells move back to the UK is a big positive, as was Unilever’s similar move back recently and whilst I don’t see either of them as particularly related to Brexit, it surely is an advantage to have them managed here? Everyone, including realistic Brexiteers accepted that Boris’ deal was rubbish but it was the best we could get at the time if we really wanted to leave. I still maintain that had Parliament as a whole accepted the Referendum result rather than resenting and fighting the publics decision, a better deal could have been obtained but as long as the EU were being emboldened by the likes of Tory Remainers and the Labour and Liberal elites, they retained hopes the decision could still be overturned.

Surely the last election, which was effectively fought on Brexit, should have made even the most ardent Remain voter realise Brexit was real, has happened and we aren’t going back. Rather than continuing to criticise and complain, why can’t you just accept the situation and realise that we all need to pull together to improve the situation. It could indeed get worse before it gets better, which it will, especially if Boris does implement Article 16 but if that’s the only way to resolve the current impasse, he may have no choice. Even you must acknowledge that the EU are sticking to an unnecessarily hard line purely in order to punish the UK and dissuade any other country from leaving. There is no other reason that they should be taking such a hard line on every issue. Lord Frost has made it abundantly clear that the UK voted to completely remove itself from the EU in every way and is negotiating on that basis, yet the EU seem unable to accept that point and wish to retain control of certain areas as if we were still members. If the UK really is to become a completely sovereign state then that can’t happen.

Eventually, either we submit to the EU or we don’t and yes, if we don’t and we do take the Article 16 route instead, I agree that we will initially suffer more than the EU do but I still believe that is the price we have to take to achieve a true Brexit.

wanderlust wrote:
The stat doesn't paint the whole picture Troy because a lot of smaller businesses only did a little bit of business with the EU anyway and it made sense to not bother when it became unprofitable as they could continue trading domestically or elsewhere in the world.
It's the big volume businesses like wholesale food and textiles importers, manufacturers and assemblers that can't stop trading with the EU that the impact will be felt most - basically because in many cases there is no alternative supplier e.g. parts for car assembly plants.
Folk don't seem to realise just how much of our basics are imported from the EU - stuff like the vegetables we eat for example - 45% comes from the EU (we import £9.1 billion p.a. and export just £1 billion. We import 84% of all the fruit we eat and 19% of that is from Spain alone.
Hence the widely held concerns if a desperate Boris triggers a trade war.

Lusty, once again you’re looking at this with a one eyed view. Even if we invoke Article 16 and lose our current trade deals, that doesn’t mean that we won’t create new ones to replace them, albeit with some cost penalties. Do you seriously believe though, that the companies selling these goods to us won’t want to continue? Of course they will.

You’re spot on though about the volume of farmed products coming from Europe, especially citrus products from Spain but you’re totally incorrect in saying there are no alternatives. When we were members of the EU through their CAP regulations, we had little or no choice to source from Europe. All fruit had to conform in size, colour and shape, or it couldn’t be sold in supermarkets. We no longer have to comply with that and it gives us an opportunity to buy from non EU countries. Surely we can help developing nations, for example in Africa and the Middle East by sourcing fruit from there, probably cheaper and at least as good.

Indeed, we produce some fantastic fruit in this country, Apples, Pears, Plums etc as well as vegetables and salads, yet we continue to source from Europe, simply because trade lines are already in place. I called into Tesco for some Coriander, tomato’s, chillies and spring onions, all of which can easily be produced here, 12 months of the year, yet not one product was UK produced. I was recently in Bents Garden Centre up the East Lancs and out of a multitude of fruit on offer, only one apple, Granny Smiths was UK produced. That’s disgraceful and totally unnecessary. We have basically submitted to the EU in these areas and for me the first thing government should do is encourage supermarkets to source from the UK first and non EU countries after. Morrisons and even Aldi, have supported UK farmers, yet the bigger ones just haven’t. We have to accept we’ve left and if the EU want to play hard ball with us then let us do the same with them and find alternative suppliers be it meat, fruit and veg, or wines from the New World.

Whitesince63 wrote:

Lusty, once again you’re looking at this with a one eyed view. Even if we invoke Article 16 and lose our current trade deals, that doesn’t mean that we won’t create new ones to replace them, albeit with some cost penalties. Do you seriously believe though, that the companies selling these goods to us won’t want to continue? Of course they will.

You’re spot on though about the volume of farmed products coming from Europe, especially citrus products from Spain but you’re totally incorrect in saying there are no alternatives. When we were members of the EU through their CAP regulations, we had little or no choice to source from Europe. All fruit had to conform in size, colour and shape, or it couldn’t be sold in supermarkets. We no longer have to comply with that and it gives us an opportunity to buy from non EU countries. Surely we can help developing nations, for example in Africa and the Middle East by sourcing fruit from there, probably cheaper and at least as good.

Indeed, we produce some fantastic fruit in this country, Apples, Pears, Plums etc as well as vegetables and salads, yet we continue to source from Europe, simply because trade lines are already in place. I called into Tesco for some Coriander, tomato’s, chillies and spring onions, all of which can easily be produced here, 12 months of the year, yet not one product was UK produced. I was recently in Bents Garden Centre up the East Lancs and out of a multitude of fruit on offer, only one apple, Granny Smiths was UK produced. That’s disgraceful and totally unnecessary. We have basically submitted to the EU in these areas and for me the first thing government should do is encourage supermarkets to source from the UK first and non EU countries after. Morrisons and even Aldi, have supported UK farmers, yet the bigger ones just haven’t. We have to accept we’ve left and if the EU want to play hard ball with us then let us do the same with them and find alternative suppliers be it meat, fruit and veg, or wines from the New World.

Love the idea of Brexiteers embracing globalism White

Unfortunately like everything else in business, it wasn't EU regulations driving EU imports but the economic reality of having quality goods on our doorstep with no trade tariffs, cheaper prices, and an efficient transport system with outstanding connections via boat, train or tunnel.

Whilst some Brexiteers still like to fantasise about the lies they were told about "new opportunities for trade deals outside the EU", the reality of the situation is that there are none - and furthermore we'll never get a better trade deal with anyone than the one we had with - and more importantly through the EU.

As members of the EU we had over 40 superb global trade deals that the collective buying power of 27 nations put us in a position of strength to negotiate very favourably. All the deals we needed were already in place and they were great deals.

The big switch was supposed to be a new deal with the USA but their Ways and Means committee - who decide these matters - made it crystal clear that now that the UK is negotiating independently we are no longer a major player and we are way down the pecking order as their priority is to establish deals with the big trading blocs of China and the EU - and because we are now a small player we are not in a position to get anything like the big deals those major trading partners will get - we simply no longer have the volumes required.

It's like the corner shop wanting to buy at the same price as Tesco's do.

Trade deal after trade deal has fallen through and the few that have been negotiated have involved our government assuming the position whilst countries like New Zealand and Japan f*** us over royally - leaving us far worse off than we were when we were part of the collectively negotiated EU deals.

As far as "accepting that Brexit is happening" goes, it's like being told to "accept it" by a mugger who has just stolen your watch, phone and wallet at gunpoint.

The whole Brexit campaign was a carefully orchestrated campaign of lies that tilted the balance by carefully targeting Social Grade DE people who were dissatisfied with their lot in life and crucially 3 million of whom had never voted before but were motivated by prejudices built up by a 30 year media campaign by the likes of Murdoch's Sun who had different motives.
(to quote the Evening Standard:
"I once asked Rupert Murdoch why he was so opposed to the European Union. 'That’s easy,' he replied. 'When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice.")

We now know how they did it, how they got away with it and why they are still allowed to get away with it (mainly because they got some very clever foreign companies on board to manipulate the will of the people) so we do have to accept that it was a brilliant bit of social engineering and a fait accomplis at that.

But it's a bitter pill to swallow, even though it's likely that many of Brexit's most ardent supporters are the ones that will be hurt most by it - but swallow it we must.

There's no point in feeling abused after you've been mugged and we have to move on - but surely you realise by now that the lies were about grabbing power, not improving our country? When you accept that, you can then accept that there's not going to be an economic miracle - just as you presumably already accept that 75 million Turks are not moving in next door, the NHS isn't getting the money it was promised, we didn't actually pay that much to benefit from EU membership and the actual cost of Brexit is going to be £ trillions in the long run?

Who hasn’t accepted Brexit has happened? No choice in the matter. What I’d like to see is some humility from Brexiteers that they got duped and the Remain side were correct with what they dubbed ‘project fear’. 

Only once you accept the reality of what Brexit is can we move forward with realistic policies which will benefit us. Continuing to pretend there are benefits while blaming everyone but the Brexiteers for the mess we’re in hampers any efforts to improve the situation.

Yes but this time without Sluffy, just to keep things fresh!

Oh dear, still haven’t got it have you both? Entering the EU/Common Market in the first place was based on a lie and it wasn’t until 50 years later that people got the chance to finally get a chance to repair it. So I really don’t understand how you can even begin to talk about lies being told on the Brexit side with the whoppers told by the Remain camp but look, that’s history now and it is what it is. There is much more to Brexit than just the financials and if you haven’t grasped that, then you will never see the reasons people wanted out.

The CAP was instrumental in destroying farming in this country where small farmers could no longer compete with the multinationals and heavily subsidised small farmers, particularly in France. We may never be able to recover those because they’ve since been sold off and used for housing but there are still opportunities for farming, especially in fruit and salads, to recover much of the purchases currently going to Europe. We have to capitalise on those opportunities and no, it won’t be either easy or quick but it’s something to work towards. We need to stop the in fighting, stand together and make the best in whatever is available to us. I certainly don’t share your negativity about the opportunities available to us but it depends on both our government, entrepreneurs and businesses, whether we’re successful or not.

Explain how CAP was instrumental in destroying farming please, we were set to receive £30 billion in subsidies from it until we decided to leave - doesn’t sound destructive to me.

Whitesince63 wrote: it depends on both our government, entrepreneurs and businesses, whether we’re successful or not.

We're buggered then.

If only someone had warned the Express and its' readers

UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-post-Brexit-GDP-EU-evg

I have to say that these latest stats from the Bank of England and the ONS are horrendous, but I'm surprised that the Express of all papers were prepared to publish them - and their headline is attention grabbing:


UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data

BREXIT, according to its backers, was meant to create endless opportunities. So far, however, the UK has failed to make the vote profitable, with the prospect of "global Britain" quickly fading according to recent data.

The article is well worth reading, especially for anyone who is still deluded by the lies of the Brexit campaign, but moreover is the Express finally stopping the denials?

I'm not sure. They were calling the fintech investment in London "a Brexit Bonanza" even though it wasn't that much and London has always enjoyed substantially more investment than other EU cities when it comes to mortgage, loans and investment platforms.

The Australian free trade deal discussed earlier has finally been concluded info here.

'Nuff said.