Coronavirus - the political argument

T.R.O.Y. wrote:

xmiles wrote:

T.R.O.Y. wrote:

148 labour seats probably voted leave vs 84 to remain - there’s a full fact link explaining this I’m sure you’ll find on google once you read this. Campaigning to overturn a democratic decision taken by the country doesn’t strike me as a vote winner, so more likely (in my opinion) this was the line they went down. Of course you may be right and it was something more underhand than that.

That is an amazing misuse of statistics. The overwhelming majority of Labour party members and voters were remain supporters. This was demonstrated repeatedly in numerous surveys and opinion polls. It was Corbyn and Momemtum that was out of step with grass roots Labour views.

If i'd said the majority of labour members had voted leave and quoted that statistic as evidence, that would have been a misuse of statistics - what I've said is actually completely accurate as to the source of information (I can't post links, but google the full fact article as per my op if you want to take a look).

I am not saying that what you said is incorrect. However using this statistic gives the misleading impression that Labour voters supported leave which is very far from the truth.

There are 580,000 Labour members, 10,000,000 voted Labour at the last election. I’d say using members only data to reflect Labour voters views is misusing statistics.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:There are 580,000 Labour members, 10,000,000 voted Labour at the last election. I’d say using members only data to reflect Labour voters views is misusing statistics.

I actually said "Labour voters" not Labour party members. So you are deliberately misquoting me. There is plenty of evidence that Labour voters overwhelmingly supported remain. Here is just one example:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiWz77G-ODoAhW_URUIHeB3DuoQFjAFegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fyougov.co.uk%2Ftopics%2Fpolitics%2Farticles-reports%2F2016%2F06%2F27%2Fhow-britain-voted&usg=AOvVaw266rNW_gQsa65pM_iGNAEU

You actually said both but apologies if I’ve misunderstood you, it certainly wasn’t intentional.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:If you're looking at comparative spends, you should be looking at similarly sized economies - such as Germany and France, and we spend less per head than either of them.

Germany's economy is around a trillion dollars bigger than us, so they aren't similar size to us at all.

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

https://www.businessinsider.in/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/articleshow/70547252.cms

France is around 10% less than us, Italy about 20% less.

I guess you can make statistics prove anything but based simply on those three country's Italy's spend per head on population IS around 20% less than us (2016 figures) whilst France is actually about 20% MORE than ours.

So if anything UK and Italy ARE in line with each other with France being significantly out of line.  So it would seem France is the anomaly by spending more on healthcare rather than the UK and Italy who are consistent to each other.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:In answer to your question of how to fund it, we should increase taxes and the size of the budget not cut from elsewhere. More recent polls suggest the majority would be willing to pay more in tax to fund the NHS.

Pledging and paying up is not always the same thing.

Forgive me if you already know this but raising taxes leads to higher wage demands which in turn leads to higher prices for goods and services, which in turn leads to being less competitive in sales.

The world economy strategy since monetarism became mainstream at the end of 1970's is for low taxation and low prices for goods and services. Certainly Labour who up to that point had a history of raising taxation when in power, reverted to keeping taxes as low as they could in order to continue the stimulation of economic growth (and also to remain electable at the next GE it faced).

Clearly as per your last sentence above it would seem that once the virus is defeated most if not all economies will need central intervention to kick start/stimulate growth and recover back the many trillions of dollars/pounds/Euros/etc coronavirus has cost them - this obviously can't be done by the raising taxation - which would take money out of the economy.

Maybe it's time again for the Keynesian economic model that stimulated the world's economy after WWII, where basically governments plough vast fortunes into public infrastructure and services, to create jobs, to employ people, who earn a wage, who spend it on goods and services, which create more jobs, more employment, more wages and more demand.

I doubt the world will bounce back exactly to how it was before the virus came along.

My own daughter for instance has already planned a trip to go to LA, Vegas and NY for later on this year and thinks I'm well negative in saying that won't be happening this side of a vaccine and the various governments bailing out their country's airlines - and everything else, first!

The bliss of ignorance about such things though.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:You actually said both but apologies if I’ve misunderstood you, it certainly wasn’t intentional.

OK.

Had to remove the URLs from this as im a new member

Doing the rounds on Twitter this morning. It's long but worth a read for those interested - particularly on the media's response (from @laiyneydoyle on Twitter):

I don't understand the British media. I really, really don't.

Basic things: Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK).



If anything, the UK was slightly better off.

As of today, there have been 320 deaths from the coronavirus in Ireland, and 9,875 deaths in the UK.

Ok, ok, but the UK has a ginormous population, right? Especially compared to Ireland.

So we adjust per capita - how many deaths per 100,000 people?
As of Saturday 11 April, there have been 6.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Ireland.

There have been 14.81 deaths per 100,000 people in the UK.

Guys, people have been dying at more than *twice the rate* in the UK.
You'd think, given the long *handwaves towards a complicated mess*... shared history... between the two regions, that this would be a massive news story, right?

I mean, it'd be a huge angle for the UK media, surely?

*crickets*

That the UK's closest neighbour, with almost the *exact* same starting line in terms of its health system, is having a wildly different outcome?

Not saying Ireland's a paragon of virtue! Loads to discuss & critique & make better!

And.
Nothing. At least, not much that I can see.
But wait, it's worse!

Because if you compare the per capita death rate between Ireland and *England*, rather than the UK as a whole, England has almost *2.5* times the number of deaths as Ireland (14.81 deaths per 100,000 vs 6.5 deaths per 100,000)
So you have two English-speaking countries, with close cultural and historical associations, both with underfunded health systems, & comparable levels of ICU beds (almost half the EU average) going into the pandemic.

But England has more than 2.5 times the deaths? Why?
If you're arguing over whether Boris & Co's 'herd immunity' policy (& the resulting delay in lockdown) had any effect on death rates - here's your angle, lads.

You have a real-time A/B test happening *right in front of you*.

Because Ireland closed down earlier. Much earlier.
While Boris was telling the British people to wash their hands, our Taoiseach was closing the schools.

While Cheltenham was going ahead, and over 250,000 people were gathering in what would have been a massive super-spreader event, Ireland had *cancelled St Patrick's Day*.
In Ireland, we watch a lot of British media and news, and let me tell you, it was like living in bizarro-world.

Because our Irish TV news was filled with very direct, serious pronouncements about what was coming. But when we switched to the British TV channels... *crickets*.
Particularly vivid for the weekend before Paddy's Day.

Rolling restrictions in Ireland, so no groups > 100, but pubs not yet closed. Video emerged of people singing in a pub in Temple Bar => public outcry, #shutthepubs trended, Health Minister comments, voluntary closure ensued.
Again, take a beat. There was a public outcry to close the pubs *the weekend before St Patrick's Day*.

The seriousness of the situation was very, very clear in Ireland, and there was massive public buy-in.
That same weekend, this was happening in Cardiff:


HYC
@HYC63257976
Lets blame China - UK version
Mar 16th# confirmed case 1372 # UK-Cardiff -Motorpoint Arena - Stereophonics

Embedded video
46
1:48 PM - Apr 5, 2020
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25 people are talking about this
I remember watching that video being posted on Twitter that Saturday night, and feeling sick to my stomach. How many people were being infected, at that very moment, singing along to the Stereophonics? It was such a huge crowd.
I assume there were people in Cardiff who felt the same way I did. But the difference was: I was supported by my government. You weren't.

And that cost lives.
The Stereophonics gig was on the 14 March. Median 5-7 days to get sick, and let's allow another 14 days to get seriously ill. The people infected at the Stereophonics gig were in hospital last week.

The people *they* infected will start dying next week.
Pandemics roll along exponential curves. The NYT (using @brittajewell's calculations) showed it beautifully here:
The Exponential Power of Now
The explosive spread of coronavirus can be turned to our advantage, two infectious disease experts argue: “But only if we intervene early. That means now.”

NYT link i can't post

.@brittajewell used US figures, & showed that if you started to stay home *this week* (March 13, at the time of publication), you could prevent 2400 infections. But if you started to home *next week* instead, you prevented 600 infections.
It's weird, right? Exponential curves are really counter-intuitive. When they go up, they go up FAST. Timing matters, a lot.

By staying home *this week* rather than *next week*, one person could prevent an extra 1800 infections. One person!
And as @jkottke pointed out, assuming a 1% death rate, that's 18 lives saved.

18 lives saved, by the choices of one person to stay home for the week starting 13 March, rather than the following week.
That Stereophonics gig? Was on 14 March.
I'm not singling them out, honestly I'm not. They're a great band, I really like them! I'm not tagging them, because what use would that do?

And I'll say again: those figures were based on US infection numbers at that point, with 30% growth rate per day. It's not the UK.

And.
In a pandemic, every day counts. Every *hour* counts. And the UK government wasted two whole weeks.

Which weeks?
Ireland cancelled Paddy's Day on 9 March, initiating a series of rolling, controlled restrictions, from school closures & large group bans (12 March), to closure of non-essential businesses & social distancing, to full lockdown.

It was precise, clearly communicated, controlled.
The UK closed their schools on 20 March, a full week after we closed ours.

Full lockdown came to the UK on 23 March.
And while there was some muddied, confused advice in the UK between times (avoid non-essential travel from 16 March? don't go to the pub, but then again, they're still open, so maybe do?) - there was an abrupt about-turn, after the Imperial College report came out.
The comparisons aren't neat between the two countries, because the processes (and nomenclature) were different.

Technically, the UK went into lockdown *before* Ireland; but that's not a fair comparison, as we were already operating our 'Delay Phase' from 12-27 March.
But I would argue the crucial difference lies in that two-week period: from 9 March, when we cancelled Paddy's Day, to 23 March, when the UK govt finally (and abruptly) wheeled about, and went into lockdown.

Two weeks.
And because the UK government delayed, distorted and distracted for those two weeks, the UK people ended up on the wrong part of an exponential curve, when lockdown started.

And now, the UK has over twice the number of deaths per capita than Ireland.
But wait, it's worse!

HOW how HOW can it be worse.

Because: testing.
Because the UK figures only include deaths, in hospitals, from people who had already been tested positive for COVID-19.

That sentence has a whole pile of clauses and commas, doesn't it? Let's break it down.
It means that a person could die *in a UK hospital* of the coronavirus; and all their doctors could agree that yes, they definitely died of coronavirus; and their *death cert* says that yes, they did, in fact, die of coronavirus -

... and they wouldn't be included in UK figures
Because they weren't tested.

And you have to have a positive test, before death, to be counted in the UK deaths.
The UK isn't testing nearly as much as it needs to.

And Ireland is testing a *lot* more. We have a drive-through testing centre in the sacred sporting grounds of Croke Park - think turning Wembley Station into a testing centre, and you get somewhere close.
Ireland is still building its testing capacity, but we've been explicitly following the South Korean model of test, test, test (and contact trace). And we're using our time in lockdown to build our testing network.
The aim is to have 15,000 tests per day, or 105,000 tests per week - that is, testing 2% of the population a week.

15,000 tests is about 7 months of flu testing for Ireland – and we're planning this, every day, for months and months.
We're not there! We had to grab Germany for a dig-out, we fell so far behind! There's loads of teething problems! Like I said at the top of the thread: I'm not saying that Ireland is a paragon of virtue here.

And: we ARE building this testing network.
And to date, Ireland has performed 8.69 tests per 1,000 people.
To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing – the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset
Without testing for COVID-19 we cannot know how many people are infected with the disease. And without this data we cannot know what is happening. That is why we are bringing together the available d…
-- Data link --

The UK has performed 4 tests per 1,000 people.
To understand the global pandemic, we need global testing – the Our World in Data COVID-19 Testing dataset
Without testing for COVID-19 we cannot know how many people are infected with the disease. And without this data we cannot know what is happening. That is why we are bringing together the available d…
-- link

So: to my UK friends, let's lay it out there.

You're testing at half the rate that Ireland is, and your loved ones, your family, your friends are dying over twice as fast.
And that's still a wild underestimate of how bad things are, because your low testing rates are artificially depressing your death figures; whereas Ireland's high testing rate is (comparatively) inflating ours (or, more fairly, accurately recording them in our figures).
I say this not in some kind of coronavirus Olympics. I say this with a knot in my stomach.

I lived for long periods of time in the UK, and I have loved ones still living there, people whose safety I'm desperately afraid for.

I say this because: you are being failed.
Failed by your government, and failed by your media.

Failed, by news reports that (correctly!) talk about how horrific the death toll is in NYC, while eliding the horrors of nearly 1000 people dying in a single day at home.
Failed, because it didn't have to be like this.
Failed, because there are lessons and exchanges to be found here, but in those 2 weeks when so much could have been done, your media didn't pay any heed to what was happening beside it.

Because your media didn't report on the contrast between Boris' choices and ours.
Failed, because your media STILL isn't reporting on the contrasts in death rates between us, and why that might be the case.
Failed, because in this long-standing, complicated, skewed relationship between us, we can see you clearly, and you seem to barely see us at all.

And it breaks my heart.
But there's still time.

Time to flatten your curve. Time to build testing. Time to develop a robust contact tracing system.

Time to *use* your lockdown as it should be used, while we do the same.

Time to be our partners in this, as we all must be, in a globalised pandemic.
The best time to plant an oak tree was 20 years ago; the second-best time is now.

The best time to stop this pandemic was last January. The second-best time is now.
And while we're working this ground together, remember that over the fence, in your neighbouring allotment, we're tackling the same tasks as you. It might be worth taking a peek over the fence sometime, to see what we can share.

Statistics can be used to prove anything.

I can't find the tweet to link to as the only name you've posted to search for doesn't seem to exist?

@laiyneydoyle



https://twitter.com/laiyneydoyle

I gave up after the third paragraph.

People should be banned from "cut & paste" posts.

Natasha Whittam wrote:I gave up after the third paragraph.

People should be banned from "cut & paste" posts.

I was happy enough not seeing the words 'Dale' or 'Vince".

boltonbonce wrote:I was happy enough not seeing the words 'Dale' or 'Vince".

Very true.

If you spammed every thread with slipper chat you'd be looking at a ban.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

boltonbonce wrote:I was happy enough not seeing the words 'Dale' or 'Vince".

Very true.

If you spammed every thread with slipper chat you'd be looking at a ban.

I can't get out so I'm wearing slippers all day. They're beginning to bore me. I've tried wearing them on the wrong feet, but I'm not getting the required buzz. 
Back to my sneakers I think.

boltonbonce wrote:

Natasha Whittam wrote:I gave up after the third paragraph.

People should be banned from "cut & paste" posts.

I was happy enough not seeing the words 'Dale' or 'Vince".

How ungrateful of you, Boncey. Didn't you know that Dale 'Superman' Vince is the backbone of the NHS, the guardian angel of football and the unsung saviour of the planet? Why don't you want to hear about him?

Putting aside any politics, Lainey Doyle has amassed an array of powerful points that are deserving of serious attention and comment.

From a very different source, these comments landed in my in-tray this morning:

The current coronavirus crisis has highlighted the hard work and dedication of many front line staff who rightly deserve praise. They are doing a fantastic job and everyone at the TaxPayers' Alliance thanks them for their efforts.

At a higher level, the pandemic has shone a light on serious problems with the quangocracy, particularly Public Health England (PHE). There has been a noticeable unwillingness by this bloated agency - financed to the tune of £4.5 billion of taxpayers' money ever year - to involve private industry in preventing shortages of vital medical equipment.

Very high paid nanny state employees have been caught sleeping on the job. For too long they've focused on lecturing the public about what to eat and drink. At the same time, PHE has failed to heed the warnings from previous outbreaks such as SARS and Avian flu.

Quangocracy. 78 points in scrabble. In the UK version at least.

Meanwhile I'm also indebted to the Taxpayers Alliance for informing me today that:

'scientists from Stirling university have been awarded £400,000 of taxpayers' cash to investigate why football fans get drunk'.

Carry on camping has just started on itv3...

karlypants wrote:Carry on camping has just started on itv3...

Cockroaches have 18 knees!

boltonbonce wrote:

karlypants wrote:Carry on camping has just started on itv3...

Cockroaches have 18 knees!

Ten Bobsworth wrote:

boltonbonce wrote:

Natasha Whittam wrote:I gave up after the third paragraph.

People should be banned from "cut & paste" posts.

I was happy enough not seeing the words 'Dale' or 'Vince".

How ungrateful of you, Boncey. Didn't you know that Dale 'Superman' Vince is the backbone of the NHS, the guardian angel of football and the unsung saviour of the planet? Why don't you want to hear about him?

Putting aside any politics, Lainey Doyle has amassed an array of powerful points that are deserving of serious attention and comment.

From a very different source, these comments landed in my in-tray this morning:

The current coronavirus crisis has highlighted the hard work and dedication of many front line staff who rightly deserve praise. They are doing a fantastic job and everyone at the TaxPayers' Alliance thanks them for their efforts.

At a higher level, the pandemic has shone a light on serious problems with the quangocracy, particularly Public Health England (PHE). There has been a noticeable unwillingness by this bloated agency - financed to the tune of £4.5 billion of taxpayers' money ever year - to involve private industry in preventing shortages of vital medical equipment.

Very high paid nanny state employees have been caught sleeping on the job. For too long they've focused on lecturing the public about what to eat and drink. At the same time, PHE has failed to heed the warnings from previous outbreaks such as SARS and Avian flu.

Ah yes the Taxpayers Alliance: a secretive organisation funded by right wing Americans and rich Tory party donors which (like Farage) wants to move towards an "insurance-based model of healthcare".

Have found it now.

The author is not 'authenticated' in anyway - just a twitter poster like you or me, posting their own opinions.

Twitter bollocks if you ask me, mere personal interpretation based on partial information on what she believes as gone on and why it has.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing the say.

Anyway -

I don't understand the British media. I really, really don't.

Basic things: Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK).

If anything, the UK was slightly better off. pic.twitter.com/owhHMUZccU

— Lainey Doyle (@laineydoyle) April 12, 2020