Coronavirus - will we survive?

okocha · **101** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:09

okocha

El Hadji Diouf

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Location : Old Boltonian

Good point, Nat. I had exactly the same problem when trying to decide the best way to vote on Brexit.

Attempting to wade through the varying opinions, lies, exaggerations and misinformation left me completely nonplussed to the point where I wanted to write on my ballot paper "How the hell am a I supposed to know when all the "experts" contradict each other?"

And, to be honest, I'm still not convinced about what the likely outcomes of our departure will be...but I'm pretty certain that Boris and co. will make a hash of it and leave the majority of us in a worse position than necessary, judging by the evidence of the government's botched response to the pandemic. Do you have faith in our ability to negotaiate good trade deals?
But, have no fear, JR Mogg and his buddies in government will not end up in the same boat as us plebs financially if it all goes wrong.....

Incidentally, how do you feel about the idea that the decision to stop staff, patients and visitors having to pay to park at hospitals is likely to be reversed? Parking is free in Wales and Scotland and is a drop in the ocean for the government here.

sunlight · **102** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:27

sunlight

Andy Walker

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Location : Dans ma tour à Shalott

Care Homes should have been more cautious than BoJo was. Maybe they were a bit Cavalier.
Anyway, who are these Politicians kidding wearing hi-viz jackets and ruffling their hair?

xmiles · **103** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:28

xmiles

Jay Jay Okocha

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okocha wrote:Good point, Nat. I had exactly the same problem when trying to decide the best way to vote on Brexit.

Attempting to wade through the varying opinions, lies, exaggerations and misinformation left me completely nonplussed to the point where I wanted to write on my ballot paper "How the hell am a I supposed to know when all the "experts" contradict each other?"

A bit surprised by this. Almost all the experts were opposed to brexit which is why Gove decided we didn't need experts. Very few experts expect brexit to be anything but bad for most of us. Rees Mogg and rich backers of the Tory party will do very well out of it of course. And it did make Boris PM. Rolling Eyes

sunlight · **104** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:33

sunlight

Andy Walker

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Join date : 2016-09-27
Location : Dans ma tour à Shalott

xmiles wrote:

Rees Mogg and rich backers of the Tory party will do very well out of it of course.

I remember Rees Mogg falling asleep sprawled out in the Commons after taking his daily tincture of Opium. He meets a Chinese man on the banks of the river Thames for his supplies.

wanderlust · **105** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:35

wanderlust

Nat Lofthouse

Posts : 23013
Join date : 2012-01-12

This is a concern.
Looks like it's a very low percentage of people that are affected but it's potentially devastating for the unlucky ones.

wanderlust · **106** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:44

wanderlust

Nat Lofthouse

Posts : 23013
Join date : 2012-01-12

okocha wrote:

Incidentally, how do you feel about the idea that the decision to stop staff, patients and visitors having to pay to park at hospitals is likely to be reversed? Parking is free in Wales and Scotland and is a drop in the ocean for the government here.

I believe the parking income goes to the Trust operating the hospital rather than the Government so what you're really questioning is the economics of the creeping privatisation of the NHS.

okocha · **107** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:00

okocha

El Hadji Diouf

Posts : 2588
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Not sure you're right, Lusty

Last edited by okocha on Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:07; edited 1 time in total

okocha · **108** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:04

okocha

El Hadji Diouf

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Join date : 2013-09-01
Location : Old Boltonian

okocha wrote:
Sounds to me like a decision from the government. From PMQs this morning:-

"For his final question, Sir Keir turns to reports that free car parking for NHS staff at hospitals, introduced during the pandemic, will end.
Sir Keir says this would be "wrong" and calls on the PM to rule this out.
In reply, Boris Johnson says parking is "free now" for staff and accuses Sir Keir of jumping on the "latest bandwagon".
He says the government will get on with implementing a manifesto commitment for free car parking for patients that need it."

Notice that Boris does not mention continued free parking for staff or visitors, including relatives of patients.

Sluffy · **109** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:27

Sluffy

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A gentle reminder - please keep this one thread free of Brexit and politics, etc, thank you - this is for the oldies like me, who don't want to wade through loads of stuff to find information that might be personally of importance to us.

There's plenty of other existing threads to chat about Brexit, politics, etc.

Thank you.

To that aim I post below two pieces of information I've found of interest in the last day or two.

The first is that 'R' rate has nudged up - the upper limit now = 1 for almost all regions - and as far as I am aware, nobody else seems to have mentioned this (Govt, media, social media, etc)?

Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 6 _113229041_regional_r3jul-nc

Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 6 _113229041_regional_r3jul-nc

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

As we've only just come out of lock down this week and it takes a couple of weeks for new infections to show, I fully expect the reproductive figure to go above 1, which in theory should mean a second spike and lockdowns!

The second is a tweet from some bloke on Twitter putting the daily new infection rates into a more understandable format and rankings.

On his tweet below it shows Leicester at the top of his list and that 1 person in 90 has been shown to have been tested positive there. A quick rule of thumb is that at anyone time, for every person 'currently' showing positive, there are two others who are walking about who are unknowingly positive too. So think of 1 in 90 as the very best scenario, the truer figuer being somewhat lower than that!

As for Bolton residents, they are shown to be 19th on the list (out of 149) with 1 in 157 people shown to have tested positive (12 of which were reported yesterday - the average throughout the country being about 1 a day).

Click on the table in the tweet to find your particular area of residence.

Top40 and all 149 english regions for #covid19 on a per person basis

572 new Pillar 1&2 cases today - 492 y'day@Leicester_News again has largest number of new cases - 77 today (37 y'day, 56 previous day)

Total 1 confirmed case for every 90 residents since start of pandemic pic.twitter.com/xmhP2SeWGa
— andrew (@avds) July 7, 2020

Hope this information is of use to others.

wanderlust · **110** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:34

wanderlust

Nat Lofthouse

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Join date : 2012-01-12

Interesting table although I note that Norfolk and Warrington both had -1 new cases reported yesterday. Go figure.

Sluffy · **111** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:55

Sluffy

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wanderlust wrote:Interesting table although I note that Norfolk and Warrington both had -1 new cases reported yesterday. Go figure.

I've noticed that before from the official stats - fwiw I look at them daily to give me some idea as to what might be possibly be happening around where I live (also been keeping an eye out for Bolton where my brother still lives).

I can only assume it is some sort of correcting of an earlier input error? The bloke is reporting the official stats correctly (well I've not gone through them all and checked them but what I mean is that it is the official stats showing the 'minuses' and he's just reporting as such).

Whatever the reason the total minuses amount to a very small percentage of the overall total - and it is the best information we actually have to go on.

Sluffy · **112** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 11 2020, 20:55

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Some more stats from the same bloke above but this times he's broken them down in to local authorities rather than county's (Cheltenham is 198 on the list Glos, out of 315 councils).

He's also changed how he ranks them by now doing it on a bit more meaningful way, by what the current rate of infection is on a seven day rolling average per 100,000 of population in that authority (which I believe for Cheltenham is 116,000).

So using Cheltenham as the example the rate he's calculated for today the seven day rolling average is 2.6 per 100,000 which comes out at 3 people have tested positive in Cheltenham.

3 out of 116,000 in a week, is low BUT potential could mean a death sentence for some of those three.

To put it into some context the bloke says the average for the country (England only and not the rest of the UK) is 7 per 100,000 in a week.

Rule of thumb though is those areas which are more densely population by area size (like Bolton for instance) are seeing more cases than those places more in the countryside/rural settings.

The next thing to take into consideration is that these details are only showing KNOWN positives and again the rule of thumb is that for every current positive there's probably another 2 people currently walking around with the virus unknowingly - maybe never knowing that they'd ever been infected - although they can still pass it on.

A final thing to take into consideration is that there is a time delay from getting the virus, to becoming ill with it - as per what I mentioned above SO what the actual benefit of these figures are is showing the TREND of what is happening in your area from about a week ago. So if the figures are starting to go up significantly over the week or so, then you probably are starting with a problem in your area and conversely if they are going down, things seem to be getting better (for now) where you live.

The bloke seems to have been up dating his information daily since I started following him a week or so ago and seems the best I've been able to find that gives any reasonable idea how things are in your area (even if that was only up to about a week ago).

Finally, in all honesty, apart from the four or five authorities at the top of the list the numbers involved are relatively miniscule (not if you catch it though!), so just carry on with what you have been doing to stay safe, keep your distance from those you know who probably haven't, and the chances are you will be fine.

Bolton Metropolitan BC - to save people looking - are 17th, has a population of around 260,000 and in the seven day rolling average showing 17.9 (known) infections per 100,000 - or about 50 per week and at a rough guess another 100 or so infected who do not know they are - so out of 260,000 people around 150 infections in a week - and Bolton are in the top 20 worst areas in the country.

No need to panic but every need to keep safe if you are at and age/condition which makes you vulnerable.

Stay safe everyone.

Two tweets - the first for authorities from 1 to 160, the second from 161 to 315.

Lower Tier English Local Authorities for #covid19 sorted by cases per 100,000 residents reported in the last 7 days

Places 200 to 315 pic.twitter.com/xj86kUdCMp
— andrew (@avds) July 10, 2020

wanderlust · **113** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 11 2020, 23:53

wanderlust

Nat Lofthouse

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North Norfolk looking good at 280th with 1 case per 100k - and that's probably a poxy cockney after Boris suggested folk should come to Norfolk for a holiday instead of going abroad. Bastard.

Sluffy · **114** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Tue Jul 14 2020, 20:47

Sluffy

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wanderlust wrote:Interesting table although I note that Norfolk and Warrington both had -1 new cases reported yesterday. Go figure.

An explanation - not official but it's probably close enough.

i suspect the negatives are a combination of:

i) recording error corrections
ii) test error corrections
iii) location changes (one area goes up, another goes down)
iv) duplicates removed@WTaF17 shared this workflow diagram that explains duplicateshttps://t.co/aBm8UI9rga
— andrew (@avds) July 14, 2020

Sluffy · **115** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Tue Jul 14 2020, 21:17

Sluffy

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I found this post somewhat interesting - if you know what I mean (no disrespect to all those who catch it/die)

Basically what it says is that over the last seven days, the worst five authorities in respect of having new infections, namely Leicester, Pendle, Blackburn, Oadby (Leicester suburb - sort of) and Bradford account for just 20% of all cases in that time (758 of 3992).

Seems many cases are in clusters rather than raging across the country - at least at this point in time.

The Top5 local authorities have reported 758 new cases in the last 7 days
England has reported 3,992 new cases in this time

The Top5 LAs represent 19% of the total new England cases reported in this time@Leicester_News @PendleBC @BlackburnDarwen @Oadby_Wigston @BradfordMDC
— andrew (@avds) July 14, 2020

Sluffy · **116** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 18:01

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For those who like irony -

A potential cluster of Covid-19 cases is being investigated in North Lanarkshire, health officials have confirmed.

BBC Scotland understands the outbreak involves a call centre which carries out coronavirus contact tracing for Public Health England.

One employee said he believed at least seven of his colleagues had tested positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53465160

For those who fear the growing spread -

Coronavirus: 'Almost half' of Blackburn Covid-19 contacts not reached

England's contact tracers have only reached about 50% of people who have been in close contact with someone with Covid-19 in an area of Lancashire where new cases are rising.

The figure was revealed by Prof Dominic Harrison, public health director of Blackburn with Darwen Council.

He warned of "exponential growth" of new infections if the system did not become more efficient.

The government said the NHS scheme had helped identify thousands of cases.

It is not clear why the contacts provided were not able to be reached.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53463068

I wonder if it might be to do with this?

There have been suggestions that sufficient translation support is not always available...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53006938

Just a thought.

wessy · **117** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:16

wessy

El Hadji Diouf

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Location : Bolton Formerly Chew Moor

sunlight wrote:Keith Lard
He wasnt involved in creating Brexit. Cummings is a bit like Rasputin, except with the Tory party, rather than the Romanovs.

Just an aside but the real Keith Lard (name similar) was my next door neighbour and coached me at Tempest United back in the day. He took Peter Kay to task for deformation of character, he worked as a fire officer and Kay tried to and to some extent succeeded in making Keith a laughing stock. He was and still is a top bloke he gave the monies awarded to fire prevention charities.

boltonbonce · **118** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:28

boltonbonce

Nat Lofthouse

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wessy wrote:
Just an aside but the real Keith Lard (name similar) was my next door neighbour and coached me at Tempest United back in the day. He took Peter Kay to task for deformation of character, he worked as a fire officer and Kay tried to and to some extent succeeded in making Keith a laughing stock. He was and still is a top bloke he gave the monies awarded to fire prevention charities.

It's amazing how things stick. A lad in my class at primary school broke wind loudly during an English lesson.
He instantly acquired the nickname 'Farter', and was never again referred to by his given name, up to his leaving secondary school.
It didn't seem to bother him though.

wessy · **119** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:36

wessy

El Hadji Diouf

Posts : 2748
Join date : 2013-06-17
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Location : Bolton Formerly Chew Moor

boltonbonce wrote:
It's amazing how things stick. A lad in my class at primary school broke wind loudly during an English lesson.
He instantly acquired the nickname 'Farter', and was never again referred to by his given name, up to his leaving secondary school.
It didn't seem to bother him though.

Unfortune for him Bonce, but our past is full of kids who had it tough, one i remember was not my mate but went to school with my best mate,

His nickname was" No Nob " If you went on the pull no one better to go up against lol

boltonbonce · **120** Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 20:24

boltonbonce

Nat Lofthouse

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Location : Pooh Corner

wessy wrote:
Unfortune for him Bonce, but our past is full of kids who had it tough, one i remember was not my mate but went to school with my best mate,

His nickname was" No Nob " If you went on the pull no one better to go up against lol

Every class seemed to have one of these.

A carrot top.
Buck teeth (Bugs Bunny).
A stammerer.
A four eyes.
Kid with a strange odour.
Possibly all one kid if he was really unlucky.
We also had a compulsive masturbator, be he was the teacher so doesn't count.

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Coronavirus - will we survive?

101 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:09

okocha

102 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:27

sunlight

103 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:28

xmiles

104 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:33

sunlight

105 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:35

wanderlust

106 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 12:44

wanderlust

107 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:00

okocha

108 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:04

okocha

109 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:27

Sluffy

110 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:34

wanderlust

111 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 08 2020, 13:55

Sluffy

112 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 11 2020, 20:55

Sluffy

113 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 11 2020, 23:53

wanderlust

114 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Tue Jul 14 2020, 20:47

Sluffy

115 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Tue Jul 14 2020, 21:17

Sluffy

116 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 18:01

Sluffy

117 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:16

wessy

118 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:28

boltonbonce

119 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 19:36

wessy

120 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 19 2020, 20:24

boltonbonce

121 Re: Coronavirus - will we survive?

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