Is there going to be a war?

Norpig wrote:McDonalds have announced they are pulling out of Russia, if that doesn't cause a revolution against Putin nothing will 

If only Stanley Johnson had pulled out. We'd have been spared a lot of pain.

Our beloved convict, Pinocchio, is off to use the same famed diplomatic skills he employed when he intervened in the case of Nazanin..... which had the effect of increasing her sentence! He has still not apologised to her.

Can only guess at the consequences of his attempts to illegally "tear up" the oven-ready deal  that he negotiated, lauded and signed. (What's the opposite of King Midas?)

okocha wrote:Our beloved convict, Pinocchio, is off to use the same famed diplomatic skills he employed when he intervened in the case of Nazanin..... which had the effect of increasing her sentence! He has still not apologised to her.

Can only guess at the consequences of his attempts to illegally "tear up" the oven-ready deal  that he negotiated, lauded and signed. (What's the opposite of King Midas?)

Eh???

Have you posted in the wrong thread?

Fwiw it looks as though being out of the EU has actually allowed the UK/Johnson to be extremely proactive and taking the lead in Europe in immediately supplying the arms to significantly stop the Russian invasion in its tracks and stop Kiev/Ukraine falling in the matter of days that the world envisaged it would.

You can think what you like about Johnson in many regards - and I probably share the same view on many of them - but if we hadn't been outside of the EU and we hadn't a PM and government prepared to immediately arm Ukraine, then I imagine that the world would be in a horrendously bad place right now with Russia looking to take back the Baltic states and God knows whatever else Putin had in mind.

I don't doubt either that China would have also become more 'warlike' too in respect of Taiwan and in other areas it wished to take control of.

I don't like Boris morals at all but he did the right things at that right time in respect of Ukraine and stopping Putin and that's far more important for the world than all the cock ups and lies he's done up to now.

I still believe once events in Ukraine and Russia become settled again that Boris should go because you can't have a PM who lies, it undermines basic democracy.

On what planet does the UK being out of the EU affect our ability to support Ukraine seeing as every country in the EU makes it's own decisions about such matters?

wanderlust wrote:On what planet does the UK being out of the EU affect our ability to support Ukraine seeing as every country in the EU makes it's own decisions about such matters?

Aren't you following all this?

It's because we aren't tied to collective decisions of all member countries like the EU is and we aren't dependent on Russian Gas and Oil like they are.

Do you really think we would have supplied all we have from day one if we had Germany and France breathing down our necks not to do so for the sake of EU unity?

And we led the way with the US on sanctions - it took the EU ages and they still can't sort out the Gas and Oil policy because Hungary is acting like a puppet state for Putin and blocking everything still!

Zelensky ranks countries helping Ukraine the most as he praises Boris Johnson but berates Macron

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has given his opinion on which NATO nations are providing the most support to his country as the Russian invasion enters its fifth week.

Addressing the Economist the Ukrainian leader claimed that the West had arrived too late to sanction Russia and suggested that the invasion could have been avoided if the sanctions had been implemented sooner.

I am sure that if tougher sanctions had been imposed earlier, a full-scale Russian attack would not have happened, he said.

Boris Johnson: United Kingdom
The UK was keen to send military support, Mr Zelensky said, adding that it was clear the country wanted Ukraine to win the war.

To be fair, Johnson is a more helpful leader, he said. Leaders of countries react based on how their constituents act.

Emmanuel Macron: France
Mr Zelensky sharply criticized the French president for failing to support his country militarily and appeared to suggest Mr Macron was cowering before Vladimir Putin.

He said: They are afraid of Russia. And that’s all. And those who say it first are the first to be afraid.

It comes after Mr Macron was criticized for softening France’s response, after rejecting the UK’s suggestion that the West could supply Ukraine with tanks to fend off the Russian invasion.

Olaf Scholz: Germany
Mr Zelensky was less critical of Germany, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz was unwilling to take a tough stance against the Kremlin, preferring to sit idly by on the fence over the country’s economic ties with Russia.

They try to be balanced, he said. They have a long relationship with Russia and they look at the situation through the prism of economics. They sometimes help.

The Ukrainian president said that Germany’s pragmatic approach was the wrong one and added: I think the Germans are making a mistake today. I think they often make mistakes. I think the legacy of Germany’s relationship with Russia shows that.

https://exbulletin.com/politics/1523864/

Wow - this clip is really worth watching - I imagine the retired colonel will soon be getting a visit from people he would rather not!

Notice how the women presenter is being told in her ear what to say!

10:26
Retired colonel gives rare realistic analysis on Russian TV

Steve Rosenberg
BBC Russia editor

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

60 Minutes is the flagship talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion promoting the Kremlin line in everything, including President Putin’s so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that “the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse” as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that “the Ukrainian army can arm a million people”.

Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted that “the desire to defend their motherland very much exists".

"Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.”

Extraordinary exchange on Russian state TV’s top talk show about Ukraine. Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.” pic.twitter.com/ExMwVDszsk

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) May 16, 2022

He'll end up doing hard labour in Siberia!

That is a spectacular interview.
Wondering if he got the confidence to say that because there may be a coup in the offing?

A fuller report on the video above from the BBC correspondent (I've edited out most of what he's already said above for ease of reading -

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV

Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.



The other guests in the studio were silent. Even the host, Olga Skabeyeva, normally fierce and vocal in her defence of the Kremlin, appeared oddly subdued.

In many ways, it's a case of "I told you so" from Mr Khodarenok. Writing in Russia's Independent Military Review back in February, before Moscow attacked Ukraine, the defence analyst had criticised "enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos" for claiming that Russia would easily win a war against Ukraine.

His conclusion back then: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."

Criticism in print is one thing. But on TV - to an audience of millions - that is another level completely. The Kremlin has gone out of its way to control the informational landscape here: shutting down independent Russian news sources and ensuring that television - the principal tool in Russia for shaping public opinion - is on message.

It is rare to hear such realistic analysis of events on Russian TV.

Rare. But not unique. In recent weeks, critical views have appeared on television here. In March, on another popular TV talk show, a Russian filmmaker told the presenter: "The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society."

So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?

Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?

It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.

Full article -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222

Whilst I was on holiday I read the excellent "Putin's People" which documents Putin's rise from the KGB to recent history where he has installed his old KGB and mafia buddies into senior government and industry positions and their collective obsession with reconquering the Soviet-era "Russkiy Mir".

Whilst we're chatting about their propaganda, this superb article - "The Putin Show" - has appeared in the Economist detailing a day in Putin's Russia and the incessant messaging, Worth a read.

Hmmm....

Posted at 23:30
Retired Russian colonel returns to TV with a different message

Just 48 hours after he broke ranks on Russian state TV and gave a damning assessment of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its international isolation, retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok was back on the flagship 60 Minutes talk show.

But Wednesday afternoon’s remarks from the military analyst could not have been more different.

To footage of Russian air strikes, he bragged that vaunted American M777 howitzers supplied to Kyiv would soon "be just memories".

Back on Monday he called for Russians to wake up to the imminent reality of a million Ukrainian troops supplied with the latest weapons from Europe and the US. But on Wednesday he dismissed any claims of possible Ukrainian counterattacks as "rumours".

He said it would be "impossible" for Ukraine to gain supremacy of the air and that it could take Kyiv decades to build a navy worthy of challenging Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

"There is every reason to believe that the implementation of our plans will give Ukraine an unpleasant surprise in the near future," he concluded, to nodding approval from the show's hosts.

On Monday, many found themselves wondering whether Khodarenok had been allowed to pierce the bubble of state TV’s alternative reality in order to manage expectations in the “special military operation”.

But narratives are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, and to backpedal so soon surely suggests that the colonel has been reined back in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805

"So Colonel Khodarenok, will it be the Novochok sandwich, a long holiday visiting Mr Navalny in the gulags or a full and frank disavowal of everything you said the other day?"

"Erm...C please"

Came across this today. The grim reality of war.

I've been trying to understand a bit of what is going on with the events unfolding in the Ukraine and one of the things that came to my attention is the concept of 'Rashism'.

I'd never heard the word before but it seems to be how some view the ideology behind what drives Russia under Putin.

The following is taken from Wiki -

History of use
The term was, in the form Russism (русизм) popularized, described and extensively used in 1995 by President of Ichkeria Dzhokhar Dudayev, who saw the military action by Russia in Chechnya as a manifestation of the rising far-right ideology.[19][20][21] According to Dudayev, Ruscism is "a variety of hatred ideology which is based on Great Russian chauvinism, spiritlessness and immorality. It differs from other forms of fascism, racism, and nationalism by a more extreme cruelty, both to man and to nature. It is based on the destruction of everything and everyone, the tactics of scorched earth. Ruscism is a schizophrenic variety of the world domination complex. This is a distinct version of slave psychology, it grows like a parasite on the fabricated history, occupied territories and oppressed peoples."[22]

The term рашизм (Ruscism/Rashism) became increasingly common in informal circles in 2008, during the Russo-Georgian War.[23][24] Its popularity in Ukrainian mass media grew after the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation,[25] the downing of a Boeing 777 near Donetsk on 17 July 2014, and the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014[26][27] largely due to the Russian-language song "That's, Baby, Ruscism! [Orthodox Fascism!]" by Ukrainian composer and singer-songwriter Boris Sevastyanov.

More here if anyone is interested -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashism#:~:text=According%20to%20Dudayev%2C%20Ruscism%20is,Russian%20chauvinism%2C%20spiritlessness%20and%20immorality.

Another thing I've sort of found is this bloke who seems to me to be a kind of Dominic Cummings equivalent - someone who seemed to be behind the original agenda, who got the sack and who is now seemingly stirring things up from the outside.

Maybe I've not got the right impression of him or the facts involved but he does make an interesting read on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

This gentleman seems to want Putin to call it a war with Ukraine, which would mean starting general enlistment in Russia and thus enable the resources to conquest of all of Ukraine (and God knows what else!).

There's a few that believe if Putin did fall to a putsch, that those taking over would be likely to be even more hawkish rather than seek some form of a way out.

Scary times we live in unfortunately.

I thought this was interesting - no idea of how genuine it all is though???

"For this reason, we do not recognize Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Apparently, this principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Donetsk and Luhansk," said Tokaev.

Putin was present on stage at that moment.
2/2

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 17, 2022

It is noted that Russia imposed restrictions on the shipment of Kazakh oil for export after criticizing the country's President Kasim Tokayev at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. https://t.co/tRDBFDNWOJ

— Flash (@Flash43191300) June 19, 2022

It was not Russia that saved Kazakhstan, but the Collective Security Treaty Organization, – the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev says.

He reminded the Russian Federation that one should not try on the role of a "savior", because no one is going to "serve and bow at the feet."

— Flash (@Flash43191300) June 19, 2022

China has invested into Kazakhstan quite substantially recently. China very much controls the purse of the country, with Russia having increasingly waning influence security landscape wise.

— Alec Bertina (@bertina_alec) June 19, 2022

Russia sabre rattling against Lithuania now.

Kaliningrad: Russia warns Lithuania of consequences over rail transit blockade

Russia has warned Lithuania of "serious" consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad.

Russia "will certainly respond to such hostile actions," senior security official Nikolai Patrushev said.

Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Kaliningrad - a strategic region where Russia's Baltic Fleet is headquartered - has no border with mainland Russia.

The western territory was annexed from Germany after World War Two in 1945 and is bordered by EU and Nato members Lithuania and Poland.

The region relies heavily on rail transit via Lithuania.

The EU has echoed Lithuania's statement, saying that the country is just implementing sanctions imposed by the EU as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.





Russian officials are furious with Lithuania - and the EU - over the ban on the transit of some goods to Kaliningrad. They're likening it to a blockade.

But when the foreign ministry in Moscow says "Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests", what exactly does it mean? What actions and when?

The Kremlin says it's trying to work that out right now.

On Monday, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, noted that "the situation is really very serious and requires a very deep analysis before preparing any measures or any decisions. This thorough analysis will be carried out over the next few days."

Today, one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies, Nikolai Patrushev, flew to the Kaliningrad region to discuss "national security in north-west Russia". Mr Patrushev is secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council. Officials claim the visit was planned long in advance. What a coincidence.

When it comes to "national security", Kaliningrad is a key location. Russia's Baltic fleet has its headquarters there. And Moscow has previously deployed nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad region.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61878929

Don't know if anyone is following this but for those who aren't it would seem Ukraine has been having some astonishing success this week.

In very simple terms Ukraine has counter attacked on their eastern front and it seems Russian forces have absolutely collapsed they are and are in retreat.

Gains of over 40 miles deep into the enemy territory seem to have been achieved in just a matter of days, and key positions have fallen to the Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine also seems to have been having success on their southern front also but progressing more gradually.

There is a long way to go yet and so many difficult days ahead but for now, all the news is good news for Ukraine.

A double edged sword I suppose Sluffy because Ukraines success only firms their resolve and probably extends the hostilities and could even lead Putin towards use of strategic nuclear missiles? I even read that council members of a prominent Russian town have come out and claimed the war is a mistake so if the “peasants” are revolting who knows? We’ll done anyway though to the Ukrainian fighters although I believe it’s come at a heavy cost in lives.