Is there going to be a war?

EU announce intention of letting Ukraine join the Single Market to help boost it's economic recovery.

Today's intelligence report from the Institute for Study of War confirms about 'Putin's chef' recruiting prisoners to go and fight in the Ukraine but goes into a bit more depth as to why he has been given a higher profile recently - basically to take back control of the public narrative away from the social media 'influencers' of the Russian Military Bloggers and their growing criticisms of how the war is going and where the blame lies for it.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Prigozhin gave a recruitment speech on September 14 announcing that Russian prisoners have been participating in the war since July 1 when they were instrumental in seizing the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant.[1] A Russian milblogger noted that Prigozhin is introducing a “Stalinist” method that allows the Kremlin to avoid ordering a general mobilization that could ignite social tensions in Russian society.[2] Milbloggers have been consistently praising Prigozhin’s success in Ukraine and some even said that he should replace the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, whom milbloggers and Kremlin pundits blame for the Russian defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[3] Russian military correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky) claimed to have spoken to Prigozhin about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border after the withdrawal of Russian forces in the area.[4] The Prigozhin-Fomin meeting, if it occurred, could indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to address milbloggers’ months-long complaints that the Russian Defense Ministry did not hear their criticism highlighting the ineffectiveness of Russian higher command. Prigozhin is Putin’s close confidant, and his developing relationship with milbloggers may help retain milblogger support for the Kremlin’s war effort while scapegoating Shoigu and the Russian Defense Ministry for the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin has changed its information approach to address the demands of the Russian milbloggers and nationalists’, suggesting that Putin seeks to win back the critical milblogger community alienated by Russian failures.[5]

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14

Stories emerging that many of the 440 or so bodies found in the mass grave in Izium show signs of torture, some with hands tied behind their backs and others with ropes around their necks.


Wagner guy recruiting in prison:

Looks as though events are going to take a turn for the worst.

Basically, Russia attacked Ukraine on the pretext they they were saving the people in an area of the country called the Donbas (basically two counties called Luhansk and Donetsk) from the Nazi's of Ukraine!

Well since then they have occupied more land in two other counties called Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Today the puppet administrative leaders of all four counties have stated they are going to undertake a referendum in each county to basically vote for joining the Russian Federation.  They are doing so this week - simply because they are losing the war and the Russian army is collapsing.

That's a big thing because when they do (not if, we all know the elections are fixed) and Russia accepts them into the Federation, then Russia can and will defend them by all means possible - and that includes under their constitution, atomic weapons.

The background to today's events is the Russia is close to losing the war, they haven't the reserves or equipment to turns things around and this is the only thing they can do to take things to another level - or get defeated and lose the war as it stands now.

Russia is basically saying the people of these counties want to be free of Ukraine and join the Russian Federation and when they do, we (Russia) will use nuclear bombs to defend them if we have to.

Well they don't really have much other options!

Apparently, Russia is going to mobilise for war (as opposed to this so-called Special Military Operations they are conducting now) and in effect declare a war (not sure on who yet - just Ukraine, or NATO or the USA as well?).

I'm not sure where all this is going, whether it is all a big bluff or whether they are mad enough to actually use nuclear weapons - and if so how the west will react.

It's getting a bit scary now, common sense has seemed to have gone out the window and I don't like where all this could potentially be leading to!

Bit of an update on this...

There'll be no big declaration tonight

Sarah Rainsford
BBC Eastern Europe Correspondent

More than two hours after Putin was expected to speak, it was all off. Vladimir Solovyov, a key Kremlin propagandist, announced it with one word on Telegram: "Tomorrow". Another, Margarita Simonyan, told everyone to "go to sleep".

So there'll be no big declaration tonight: not about mobilising all Russian men to fight, nor on annexing big chunks of Ukraine and threatening dire consequences if Ukraine then continues its advance there.

Did Putin change his mind? Is there an almighty fight behind the scenes? Or is Russia’s president just keeping everyone on their toes, as his cheerleaders want to suggest?

Vladimir Solovyov posted a fake screenshot of Putin's phone with frantic messages from French President Macron, begging him to "Call me back, I’m worried!"

I suspect it's Putin who’s worried, though. Because the war he started is not going his way and he can't afford to lose so he’s threatening to escalate.

But Ukraine has already called any referendums on occupied territory sham and illegitimate, and its Western allies agree. Instead of worrying about Moscow’s reaction and pressing Kyiv to stop, they've made it clear they will continue to back Ukraine’s counter-offensive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

Putin has sanctioned the conscription of 300k reservists.

What I understand from what I am reading on all this so far (some of the analysis I read is only published up to the previous day's events) goes something like this.

The Russian army is falling apart and there are real fears they will lose if something urgent isn't done to prop them up.

Currently large parts of their forces in Ukraine are demoralised, retreating, refusing to fight and deserting/surrendering.

Their armaments/weapons are severely compromised and stocks of them are running low.

The prognoses are that Ukraine will breakthrough on a number of fronts leading to Russia being routed.

Therefore, immediate action is needed.

In respect of their army in the Ukraine they have brought in punishments for those who refuse to fight, surrender, desert etc, etc, in order to stiffen up the resolve to fight of those that are there.

They also know they will continue to lose land to Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensives, so this is why the four 'counties' have urgently wanted to vote to join the Russian Federation because once they have and been accepted Russia can use the atomic weapon threat to 'scare off' Ukraine's advances.

The call up of reservists are of those who have had military training - and thus can be rushed back to the front lines - however weaponry and armour is likely to be an issue in the equipping of them.

All this seems to be being done to stop the Russian army facing imminent defeated in Ukraine and to stop further attacks on them through fear that Russia will use atomic weapons to 'defend' those newly 'adopted' counties into the Russian Federation.

The question is will the west stop Ukraine from going any further with their recent and ongoing successes or call Russia's bluff that they won't in fact use the nuclear option.

We can only judge what might well happen in about a weeks' time when the counties are accepted into the Russian Federation.

Scary times ahead.

Russia simply can't countenance defeat. The far right nationalists/military and the many who swallow the state media output are humiliated by Ukraine's recent gains and have been pressurising Putin to act.
His statements are a sop to them and also positioning himself ahead of tomorrow's UN Security Council meeting where Ukraine is featured on the agenda. He will undoubtedly be sabre-rattling - but hopefully to set a starting position for negotiations.

I reckon Putin wants out but the question is still what exit strategy can they offer him that would pacify all parties - including the far right in Russia?

I mentioned in my last post that the expert analysis I read are in respect of the previous day's events and as such the analysis of Putin's speech yesterday is shown in today's issue, which I post below -

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.[1] Putin’s order to mobilize part of Russia’s “trained” reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.[2] Russia’s partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter.

Putin and Shoigu emphatically said that only reservists who have completed their initial military service will be mobilized, making clear that Russia will not be expanding conscription. Shoigu also declared that students will not be affected and told them to go about their studies without concern.[3]  These comments were clearly intended to allay fears among the Russian population that “partial mobilization” was code for general conscription.

It is not clear how much of the Russian reserve has already been deployed to fight in Ukraine. Western intelligence officials reportedly said in November 2021 that Russia had called up “tens of thousands of reservists” as part of its pre-war mobilization.[4] Ukrainian military officials reported in June 2022 that Russian forces had committed 80,000 members of the mobilized reserve to fight in Ukraine.[5] The Russian military likely called up the most combat-ready reserves in that pre-war mobilization effort, which suggests that the current partial mobilization will begin by drawing on less combat-ready personnel from the outset.

Russian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed. Russian mandatory military service is only one year, which gives conscripts little time to learn how to be soldiers, to begin with. The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time. Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with “combat experience,” but very few Russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience.[6]

Reports conflict regarding how much training reservists called up in the partial mobilization will receive.  Shoigu described a deliberate training process that would familiarize or re-familiarize mobilized reservists with crew, team, detachment, and then platoon-level operations before deploying them to fight. That process should take weeks, if not months, to bring reservists from civilian life to war readiness. Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security head Viktor Bondarev reportedly said that mobilized reservists would train for over a month before being deployed.[7] A military commissariat in Kursk Oblast, on the other hand, reportedly announced that reservists under 30 would deploy immediately with no additional training.[8]

Putin emphatically did not say that the Russian nuclear umbrella would cover annexed areas of Ukraine nor did he tie mobilization to the annexation. He addressed partial mobilization, annexation referenda in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and the possibility of nuclear war in his speech—but as separate topics rather than a coherent whole. The fact that he mentioned all three topics in a single speech was clearly meant to suggest a linkage, but he went out of his way to avoid making any such linkage explicit.

Putin framed his comments about the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons use in the context of supposed Western threats to use nuclear weapons against Russia. He claimed that Western officials were talking about “the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction—nuclear weapons—against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...”  His comment on this topic concludes by noting that Russia would use all means at its disposal in response to a threat to “the territorial integrity of our country, for the defense of Russia and our people.” That comment could be interpreted as applying in advance to the soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine, but its placement in the speech and context do not by any means make such an interpretation obvious. Nor is Putin’s language in making this comment different from formal Kremlin policy or from previous statements by Russian officials. Putin’s speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.

Putin did not connect annexation with the partial mobilization either, defending the need for partial mobilization by referring to the length of the lines along which Russian forces are now fighting and Western assistance to Ukraine. He noted that the front lines now stretch for more than a thousand kilometers to explain why more Russian forces are needed. He and Shoigu also heavily emphasized the false narrative that Russia is fighting not Ukraine but NATO and the West. This narrative is not new. It is not even markedly different from the initial false justifications Putin offered before ordering the invasion in February.[9] The formal Kremlin position has long been that NATO was pushing Ukraine to war with Russia, that NATO was preparing to give Ukraine nuclear weapons, and that NATO forces were taking up or preparing to take up positions in Ukraine. Putin’s and Shoigu’s repetitions of that line do not reflect an escalation in their rhetoric.

Russia’s partial mobilization will not transform the war this year and may or may not have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to continue operations at their current level next year.  Ukraine and the West should neither dismiss it nor exaggerate it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21

Also...

Reports coming out that some of the anti war demonstrators arrested are being forced to sign up in the police stations in which they are being held. Wow.

Russia's ballot in the occupied territories....apparently they won't use digital voting, it will be paper ballots collected by Russian soldiers going door to door.

Seems fair and open

Independent implying that both China and India are putting the squeeze on Russia to negotiate a solution for the end of the war at the UN General Assembly.
Perhaps the "unbreakable bond" between Russia and China was predicated on Russia getting a quick win anyway?
And India - who increased Russian imports when the war broke out, went further by saying that any war crimes should be punished in order to retain confidence in the UN.
All good - but I still can't see a universally - acceptable exit strategy.

I agree Lusty, it’s hard to see any resolution in which Putin doesn’t lose face as he’s really backed himself into a corner, several corners in fact. Zelensky won’t surrender territory and Putin after his mock elections will insist that the regions forced to vote Russian can’t be abandoned. The problem is that nobody around Putin will force him out and even if they did, would the replacement be any better? It’s a similar situation to Iran currently. If the people forced out the Ayatolahs it would probably just be the Revolutionary Guards that take over and I’m not sure they’d be any better for the general population? I’m afraid I don’t see an end to hostilities soon but it is at least hopeful to have both China and Russia pushing for a resolution.

I don't hold out much hope for the Russian antiwar/draft protesters but was surprised to learn that to date there have been 54 attacks on recruitment centres, especially in ethnic minority regions where people feel they are being disproportionately recruited.
Russia's recruitment strategy has the faint whiff of ethnic cleansing about it.

Fwiw I've been following the lectures of a bloke called Timothy Snyder on The Making of Modern Ukraine.

For anybody still reading after my opening sentence let me tell you a bit more about how I found out about Mr Snyder, who he is, why I started to watch his lectures and six 45-minute lectures on, I'm still watching them!

Right then, my starting point is that I believe the war in Ukraine is a turning point in history that will affect us all, may be destroy the planet maybe not from a nuclear war (but who knows did anyone believe we would have a so-called superpower invade another European country in this day and age?) but possibly by the environmental damage it has caused, setting world economies back and postponing to some extent the green agenda to save the planet, which apparently was our last chance to do something to stop global warming going off the scale by taking actions now - and that was even before the war started!

Why then would some apparent madman do such a thing, what was so important to him to drive him to such a thing?

As always there are two sides to every story and I know what 'our' sides is, but I didn't understand Russia's at all.

How would I find this out, after all I can't understand what anyone says or writes in Russian and I'm well aware that even if I could it would only be propaganda anyway - and highly doubtful to give a fair and honest view.

When the war started, I started to follow it the best I could on Twitter and over the months refined who to follow to give somewhat of the truest picture of things I could.

In simple terms I developed two groups of Twitter accounts to follow, the first group being the news and what's happening day to day, and the second being a group of analysis and academics who explain what and why was happening.
One day one of the academics made reference to this Timothy Snyder and it seems that Mr Snyder must be somebody who knows a thing or two because he's there in Kyiv speaking with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the middle of the war!

And the Russians are talking about your latest article nonstop. Great job! Slava Ukraini.

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 10, 2022

So I checked him out and to cut a long story short, he is the Professor of History at Yale and by chance his lectures seem to be being screened on YouTube for free.

I thought I take a look at the first one and I've been hooked ever since.

I've been hooked though not just because it is about the history of the making of Ukraine but because the way he explains things such as how and why states become formed, how they pass (or don't) easily through succession to the next leader, how and why people come together, how the development of languages and names influence things and can be traced back through time, and many more things can be applied more generally to our own worlds and what we've developed into as well.

It's all academic and I doubt anyone else would find it as fascinating as I have but the first lecture is below for anyone who wants to give it a go.

Ukraine managed to make a big change to the fortunes of war after receiving American HIMARS - they've really made a difference as they're capable of destroying camps, supply depots and bases and moving on before they're targeted.

To date they have a total of 16 HIMARS - but this week America has pledged a further 18 - so barring nukes, that could really make a huge difference to the ground war.

Today's Institute for the Study of War main points:

The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.

Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.

Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication (GLOCS) that support Russian troops in the Drobysheve-Lyman area.

Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneouvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.

Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.

Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.

An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.

Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.

wanderlust wrote: To date they have a total of 16 HIMARS - but this week America has pledged a further 18 - so barring nukes, that could really make a huge difference to the ground war.

Good to see you are following one of the analytical sites I've recommended and have posted previous extracts of their analyses on here - at least you've stopped making things up like you were doing before...

wanderlust wrote:Totally agree - they have an antiquated and inflexible approach to military command. It's mainly a career for the "officer class" who can progress because of their family/party connections or history and they do it for the pay, titles and shiny uniforms - they're set for life.

As for the HIMARS there are several issues that you clearly are not aware of and things are not as black and white as you may think.

The first issue is that the war as not been the type that the west has expected - and therefore not prepared for, in that they've never planned for the durability of the equipment being put to such constant use.  In short, they've never expected equipment to be used as much as they have and the 'barrels' on artillery etc, are simply wearing out and need to be replaced.  Therefore the 16 HIMARS may simply be replacing the ones they have and not additional to them.

I suspect this isn't the case here as the USA apparently have several hundred of them in stock, so I don't see them simply replacing like for like as the war is currently in escalation.

The second issue is that HIMARS fire several different missiles and the different missiles have different ranges that they can achieve.  The US has up to now restricted Ukraine to limited ranged missiles (so as not to escalating things with Russia).

It may be that the gloves are now coming off in which case the US may in future provide the longest-range missiles for the HIMARS to fire which would bring most if not all of occupied Ukraine into range which really would be a massive improvement on Ukraine's current capabilities with HIMARS but I believe such long-range missiles are still not part of the deal along with the 16 HIMMARS currently being delivered to them.

The last issue and one that I imagine has already been addressed is that of additional Ukrainian troops being trained to use them - and more importantly maintain them.

Well done though, you are at last reading around a subject for a change and not starting off with your own an intransigent fixed belief that you refuse to change often based solely on your personal prejudices rather than on much if any factual evidence - eg Liz Truss is being controlled and told what to do by unnamed corporate cabal's intent on ordering her to ruin the UK economy so that they can enrich themselves by backing against the pound, etc, etc...

Quite a huge step forward for you I would say.

 

Anyhoo....
Putin to sign annexation of Ukraine document in Red Square celebration ceremony at 1pm

Wondering if that could pave the way for an agreement?
Gives Putin a potential media exit strategy - even though what the Russian media would describe as a civil war or terrorist unrest against the annexation will continue for years.
Obviously everyone would know what is really happening but it could be dressed up as victory achieved/mission accomplished in Russia.