Is there going to be a war?

Finally the UK, US, EU and allies have closed SWIFT to some - not all, some Russian banks.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said the allies would also stop Russia from "using its war chest," by paralysing the assets of its central bank. They agreed to freeze its transactions and prevent the central bank from liquidating its assets.
She added there would be a crackdown on so-called "golden passports" that "let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems".


However India which depends on importing Russian manufactured fertiliser, is considering allowing Russian banks to open rupee accounts in order to continue trading with and through them.

Seems Germany are doing massive U turns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

It's funny (not funny haha) how I thought Merkle had been a good leader - and she was - but her decisions to go green and depend on Russian energy, to not to spend on defence (see article now below), and to take in 5m refugees without screening them first - all now appear to be massive political blunders.

Who would have thought so at the time?

11:04
BREAKING
Germany pledges massive boost to military spending

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced sharp hikes in the country's defence spending.

Speaking at an emergency session of the German parliament he said €100 billion ($113 bn) will be added to Berlin's military budget this year.

It means Germany will now spend more than 2% of its annual GDP on defence, a longstanding NATO target the country has previously failed to meet - despite pressure from the US, and in particular former President Donald Trump.

It's the latest in a string of policy reversals announced by Germany in the last few days, including its decision yesterday to start sending weapons directly to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says the world has "entered a new era" following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that "there could be no other answer to Putin's aggression".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877


17:37
'One of the biggest shifts ever seen in German foreign policy'

Damien McGuinness
BBC News, Berlin

Within a few days Vladimir Putin has managed to do what Nato allies have spent years trying to achieve: a massive increase of military spending in Germany.

German weapons for Ukraine. An additional $1.13 bn (£0.84 bn) for the German army. And a constitutional commitment to reach Nato’s military spending target of 2% of GDP.

This is arguably one of the biggest shifts ever seen in Germany’s post-war foreign policy. Before Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine, such a militaristic stance would have been unthinkable in Germany. Traditionally Germany focuses on diplomacy and dialogue, not military might, and historically there are deep economic and cultural links between Russia and Germany. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked and stunned Germany’s government and German voters. Olaf Scholz called Vladimir Putin inhumane and a warmonger, and pledged unwavering support for Ukraine. Judging by the applause and standing ovations for Ukraine in the German parliament, and the enormous anti-war demonstration in Berlin today, most Germans seem to agree with him.

I was interested in Elon Musk turning on the Starlink satellites to serve Ukraine and sending receivers. Obviously if the Russians cut off the wifi it could be vital in comms and getting out information and images to the world.
Unfortunately most of the footage coming out shows that the Ukranians are seriously outgunned despite the hype in the West about preparing and supporting them properly.
It was also interesting to see that linguistically 85% of Ukranians speak Ukranian as their first language but the south eastern areas where there is a majority of Russian speakers - the ones that Putin claims he is saving - identify predominantly as Ukranian and are resisting the Russian forces - i.e. even the Russian speakers don't want to be "saved".

I'm wondering what Putin's exit strategy is. He surely can't contemplate a standing occupational army in a country of 43 million people in the long term can he?

Slightly concerned that if the resistance goes on too long he'll use nukes. He has the means of delivery on the ground although he may go in with the thermobaric weapons first. Scary.

Some more interesting takes coming out this morning:

Ukraine claims to have killed 5000 Russian soldiers and has used media to ask them not to believe their president, put down their weapons and go home. Propaganda? maybe.

Ukraine asks the EU to let them join immediately. That won't happen.

There is a media war going on, trying to control the narrative.  Obviously the big social media companies can't control access within Russia, but they've clamped down on state media statements but will not cut off Russia altogether claiming they are providing a voice for dissidents.

Poland and other countries letting in thousands of Ukranian refugees - but African and Asian refugees who have been stuck on their borders for months are not being admitted.

And from the Jewish News: Roman Abramovich has been contacted by the Israelis and has agreed to try to broker a deal with the Kremlin. Not sure how much influence he has these days.

Finally, there is massive concern about what Putin will do next as the war isn't going as planned. Russian economy starting to feel the pain and the Central bank raised it's interest rate from 9.5% to 20% today. Putin has to dress this up as a victory somehow and some observers reckon he is going to escalate, maybe deploy thermobaric and nuclear weapons.

TASS has been hacked and anti war messages posted - that will really piss off Putin.

Rouble crashed by 40%

Talks are underway

...but still the Russians advance.

Beau is always worth listening to. Never mentions the Wanderers though.

I thought this was interesting - seems even neutral Switzerland isn't being neutral anymore on this -

On Monday, Switzerland - traditionally a neutral country and whose banks are believed to hold billions of dollars in Russian funds- said that it would adopt EU financial sanctions against Moscow.

The Swiss justice minister, Karin Keller-Sutter, also said it had banned five oligarchs with links to Russia's president Vladimir Putin from entering the country, though declined to name them.

The BBC's correspondent in Geneva, Imogen Foulkes, said: "Make no mistake, this is a huge step for Switzerland, which has often agonised over what being neutral actually means.

"Today, Swiss president Ignazio Cassis made it clear: the attack on Ukraine was an unacceptable attack on freedom and democracy," she said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60559513

Nobody has introduced financial sanctions. The EU, US and others have said they will, but so far they've done nothing.

Our government for example, says "it will freeze assets of Russian banks within days".

Not today. Not tomorrow. Not before they have transferred all their assets out.

wanderlust wrote:Nobody has introduced financial sanctions. The EU, US and others have said they will, but so far they've done nothing.

Our government for example, says "it will freeze assets of Russian banks within days".

Not today. Not tomorrow. Not before they have transferred all their assets out.

If nobody has introduced any financial sanctions yet then why has the Russian central bank been forced to raise it's interest rates to 20% and...

A Kremlin spokesman said: "The Western sanctions on Russia are hard, but our country has the necessary potential to compensate [for] the damage."

Western nations announced at the weekend that they would impose sanctions on Russia central bank to prevent it from selling its vast reserves to prop up its own banks and companies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60553362

Funny them doing all that if the sanctions hadn't even started yet don't you think?

Sluffy wrote:

If nobody has introduced any financial sanctions yet then why has the Russian central bank been forced to raise it's interest rates to 20% and...

A Kremlin spokesman said: "The Western sanctions on Russia are hard, but our country has the necessary potential to compensate [for] the damage."

Western nations announced at the weekend that they would impose sanctions on Russia central bank to prevent it from selling its vast reserves to prop up its own banks and companies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60553362

Funny them doing all that if the sanctions hadn't even started yet don't you think?

Not if you understand finance and economics and the role of investor confidence in currency valuation and it's relationships with trade futures and with inflation and how banks hedge against such eventualities.

wanderlust wrote:

Sluffy wrote:

If nobody has introduced any financial sanctions yet then why has the Russian central bank been forced to raise it's interest rates to 20% and...

A Kremlin spokesman said: "The Western sanctions on Russia are hard, but our country has the necessary potential to compensate [for] the damage."

Western nations announced at the weekend that they would impose sanctions on Russia central bank to prevent it from selling its vast reserves to prop up its own banks and companies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60553362

Funny them doing all that if the sanctions hadn't even started yet don't you think?

Not if you understand finance and economics and the role of investor confidence in currency valuation and it's relationships with trade futures and with inflation and how banks hedge against such eventualities.

Oh I understand those things enough to get by on thank you very much.

Clearly though - and the point you are missing - is that the Russian states banks assets abroad have already been frozen and that means they are already unable to guarantee to substantially underwrite their country's banks guarantees of payment for goods and services their customers buy (both internal and external to the country) nor can they support their own currency by buying it to keep the exchange rate constant and have had to resort to hiking up the interest rate to 20% already.

Their liquidity has already been damaged and hence why the rest follows as it already has.

That's why Switzerland joining in with the sanctions is such a major thing as it will immediately effect whatever money the Russian state bank is holding there, which I imagine is considerable.

Sluffy wrote:

Oh I understand those things enough to get by on thank you very much.

Clearly though - and the point you are missing - is that the Russian states banks assets abroad have already been frozen and that means they are already unable to guarantee to substantially underwrite their country's banks guarantees of payment for goods and services their customers buy (both internal and external to the country) nor can they support their own currency by buying it to keep the exchange rate constant and have had to resort to hiking up the interest rate to 20% already.

Their liquidity has already been damaged and hence why the rest follows as it already has.

That's why Switzerland joining in with the sanctions is such a major thing as it will immediately effect whatever money the Russian state bank is holding there, which I imagine is considerable.

I think the point that you are missing - is that the mere threat of sanctions affects the economy before actual sanctions are in place.

Anyhoo it seems that the Russians are now using more indiscriminate weapons to target civilians and are moving a massive convoy of military vehicles towards Kyiv.

But more worrying is that there are reports that they've already used thermobaric weapons. They are banned by the Geneva Convention so it is now looking like war crimes have been committed.

wanderlust wrote:

Sluffy wrote:

Oh I understand those things enough to get by on thank you very much.

Clearly though - and the point you are missing - is that the Russian states banks assets abroad have already been frozen and that means they are already unable to guarantee to substantially underwrite their country's banks guarantees of payment for goods and services their customers buy (both internal and external to the country) nor can they support their own currency by buying it to keep the exchange rate constant and have had to resort to hiking up the interest rate to 20% already.

Their liquidity has already been damaged and hence why the rest follows as it already has.

That's why Switzerland joining in with the sanctions is such a major thing as it will immediately effect whatever money the Russian state bank is holding there, which I imagine is considerable.

I think the point that you are missing - is that the mere threat of sanctions affects the economy before actual sanctions are in place.

You think wrongly then.

They aren't 'threats', they have already been taken - as I keep repeatedly telling you that they have!!!

I'll make it simple for you to understand - the UK, USE and EU aren't 'threatening' to take sanction action (as you seem to somehow believe is all they are doing) - they've already done so!

I'd even spelt it out to you that they had and the effect it already had on Russia in the post above ffs!!!

This link below will lead you to a BBC interview video with Julia Friedlander an 'expert in economic statescraft" from the Atlantic Council Organisation, where she explains the sanctions TAKEN have completely destroyed Russia's attempt to 'sanction proof' it's economy following their annexation of the Crimea in 2014, which in her words "essentially vaporised their [foreign exchange held] assets".

Posted at 23:47 28 Feb
Russian sanctions 'went from zero to 60'

An expert in economic statecraft tells the BBC that tough global sanctions on Russia have "essentially vaporised" its assets.
Julia Friedlander of the Atlantic Council says there is no precedent in the history of sanctions for what Moscow is now facing.
"Compared to what we've done on Iran or Venezuela, these sanctions are hitting hard and went from zero to 60," she told BBC World News.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Central bank sanctions are a tour de force of allied unity against the "fortress" of #forex reserves, the only economic tool that matches the magnitude of #Putin's senseless war. But be prepared for a free fall in stages. There will be no #IMF program for Russia.

— Julia Friedlander (@jfriedlanderdc) February 28, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having a knock on effect throughout the region with former USSR independent democratic countries urgently seeking EU membership to avoid being sucked back into Russian control.
This presents the EU with a dilemma - do they maintain their stance of insisting on a long candidacy assessment which can take many years as was the case with the Baltic States, Poland and Rumania or do they seize the opportunity to consolidate the buffer on Russia's southern border?
It's fairly obvious that many of these states want to protect what degree of democracy they have managed to establish by seeking the protection of the EU but there are some advantages for the West.
Rumania has voiced support for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia joining the EU.

It makes sense to consider Ukraine and Moldova, but Georgia is on the other side of the Black Sea sandwiched between Russia and Turkey - and their PM is under attack for being a Russian sympathiser.
If the Georgian people get rid of their current leader there could be a geographically strategic ally for the EU - and that's not beyond the realms of possibility.

Whatever happens, it looks like the invasion has made the former satellite states very nervous and new lines are being drawn. If the EU doesn't extend a hand, they will be dragged back into the Russian empire - if they do, the EU will grow by another 5% and they'll have to put long term strategic considerations ahead of short term economic ones.

Granting official candidacy would be a good move IMO as it would give the people of the countries ambition and purpose which may drive political change and a stronger will to distance themselves from the Russian sphere of influence.

Strikes me that Russia has so far miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainians and anticipated they would fold quickly with minimal damage done. I suspect Putin doesn’t really want to destroy the cities and cause maximum damage in a country where he hopes to govern in future but with resistance now absolute I expect he’ll escalate the violence over the coming weeks. Despite all the positive comments coming from Ukrainians, the fact is that they are no match for the Russians in the end and you can only imagine the carnage to come when Putin gets really frustrated by it. Yet again the EU fail to de escalate tensions by denying membership for Ukraine for the time being. Obviously any suggestion of joining will just infuriate Putin even more. Without NATO physical assistance Ukraine have no chance of winning a war against Russia and whilst the sanctions will hurt they won’t stop Putin in his quest. Hard to see how this will end well I’m afraid.

Whitesince63 wrote:Strikes me that Russia has so far miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainians and anticipated they would fold quickly with minimal damage done. I suspect Putin doesn’t really want to destroy the cities and cause maximum damage in a country where he hopes to govern in future but with resistance now absolute I expect he’ll escalate the violence over the coming weeks. Despite all the positive comments coming from Ukrainians, the fact is that they are no match for the Russians in the end and you can only imagine the carnage to come when Putin gets really frustrated by it. Yet again the EU fail to de escalate tensions by denying membership for Ukraine for the time being. Obviously any suggestion of joining will just infuriate Putin even more. Without NATO physical assistance Ukraine have no chance of winning a war against Russia and whilst the sanctions will hurt they won’t stop Putin in his quest. Hard to see how this will end well I’m afraid.

The force en route to Kyiv is now 65 km long and when it arrives it will be all over very quickly. They'll destroy roads and bridges, basic infrastructure to stop soldiers escaping and then hunt them down and kill them - the Russians specialise in street fighting.
It will be a massacre of the Ukraine army and civilians resisting will die with them as will many more caught up in the area.

Lots of reports of civilian casualties but nothing compared to what's coming - it's going to be a horror show.

Sadly, I'm expecting to hear of a lot of atrocities in the coming days.

The EU hasn't denied Ukraine membership BTW - the request was signed off less than 24 hours ago. The EU has been monumental in supporting Ukraine AND is accepting refugees - not just those who are related to British passport holders.

Hearing that the EU has launched a special process to accelerate Ukraine's accession.

Interesting. If Russia invades an EU member state....

wanderlust wrote:Hearing that the EU has launched a special process to accelerate Ukraine's accession.

Interesting. If Russia invades an EU member state....

Exactly what I said, the EU just inflating the problem by even considering Ukraine as members. Whatever happened to the need to fulfil certain conditions before membership is even considered? One of these days Lusty you’ll wake up and realise what a shit show they are and when the Russians have massacred the population, as you earlier quite correctly forecast they would, we’ll see what’s left of the application. NATO and EU states right on Russias border is exactly what Putin warned against but as usual the West doesn’t listen and Ukraine will now face the consequences of that.

Story coming out that the Ukranians have eliminated Chechen assassins sent to kill President Zelenskyy after receiving a tip off from Russian FSB (KGB) agents opposed to the war.
Here - and elsewhere.