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Negotiating new trade deals with Europe and other countries...

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Boggersbelief
whatsgoingon
scottjames30
Natasha Whittam
Copper Dragon
Chairmanda
Reebok Trotter
wanderlust
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wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Now that Boris and Nigel have run away from the problem they created we are left with a bit of a dilemma in trying to salvage our economy. 

Even if we wanted to get back to the trade deals we've negotiated over the last 40 years Europe has already made it clear that without freedom of movement, we are not going to get anything like the deal we had before the referendum so we already know that we are going to have to accept increased immigration (thanks Boris and Nigel!) - and possibly without the protection the EU currently gives us in places like Sangat and via first contact asylum, however there is a much bigger concern and that's to do with showing our cards before the game has commenced.

Negotiation 101: Don't tell the people you are going to negotiate with that you have to reach an agreement.

Unfortunately for England, Wales and any remaining bits of Britain, one of the cornerstones of the Leave campaign was to tell the world that we would be able to negotiate a new deal when we leave. Having made that promise to the voters they are now in a position whereby they have no choice but to take whatever deal Europe and the World is prepared to offer. And the mood our soon-to-be former partners are in we are going to get even more shafted than anyone had imagined especially as Farage and Johnson have gone to great lengths to tell them how desperate we are.



George Osborne is talking about slashing corporate tax to under 15% (European average is 25%) in order to try to offset investors distrust since the referendum so international corporate fat cats will pay less tax because of the referendum - maybe that will slow down the rush to take investment out of Britain?

The reality of the situation is that the negotiations are happening NOW. Our Civil Servants are running around like headless chickens trying to get some idea just how bad it's going to be before the button is pressed. They are trying to find out what the EU is prepared to let us have and what they refuse to budge on.
This information will then form the basis of Tory policy and to some extent determine who will be leader.

This week they found out that the key European powers were still prepared to ratify the CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) deal between Europe and Canada but that if Britain wanted a similar deal with Europe we have to accept free movement of people.

Already the Tories are telling Leave voters that not only will immigrants currently resident in the UK stay, but we have no more power to control immigration than we had before the referendum. 

And every time they learn something new about the EU/World negotiating position, it becomes part of the electioneering rhetoric.

So is there any hope for whoever is eventually lumbered with the task of trying to get us back to somewhere near where we were before the referendum?
Having shown our cards, is there anything we have left that will give us some leverage in the negotiations apart from an ageing market of 65 million people?

And then there's the other scenario. 

Supposing they find out that our negotiating position is so weak it would be suicide to leave the EU? Would they have the strength of character to say so to the British people and refuse to enact Article 50 in the full knowledge that their core voters would be up in arms and turning on them? I doubt it.

No wonder Boris and Nigel have run away.

Reebok Trotter

Reebok Trotter
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

I have to say, with the benefit of hindsight, that I am a tad concerned with the way things have turned out. I was under the impression that the Brexiters had a game plan in place in the eventuality that we did actually leave. At the moment it is looking like that is not the case which is rather worrying..



Last edited by Reebok Trotter on Mon Jul 04 2016, 21:17; edited 1 time in total

Chairmanda

Chairmanda
Andy Walker
Andy Walker

And in what is close to the ultimate irony, we lack the skills to negotiate trade deals in the civil service as they have been done by the EU, so we are scouring the globe for people willing to immigrate to do those roles.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/03/government-faces-worldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/

Guest


Guest

I actually cringed when I heard May talking on the radio earlier about how she was going to assemble a diverse team with specialist skills to handle the negotiations (should she get the PM gig).

She said she'd have a farmer, a fisherman, a banker, etc.....

It was like listening to a five year old.

Copper Dragon

Copper Dragon
Ivan Campo
Ivan Campo

Reebok Trotter wrote:I have to say, with the benefit of hindsight, that I am a tad concerned with the way things have turned out. I was under the impression that the Brexiters had a game plan in place in the eventuality that we did actually leave. At the moment it is looking like that is not the case which is rather worrying..


The only ones who should have had a game plan in place is the government.

They didn't expect leave to win either and that's why it shouldn't just be up to Tory party members to vote in our next Prime Minister.

And can the next PM really be from the remain camp?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-leadership-election-tory-mp-bill-cash-brexit-next-prime-minister-a7116826.html

Reebok Trotter

Reebok Trotter
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Copper Dragon wrote:
Reebok Trotter wrote:I have to say, with the benefit of hindsight, that I am a tad concerned with the way things have turned out. I was under the impression that the Brexiters had a game plan in place in the eventuality that we did actually leave. At the moment it is looking like that is not the case which is rather worrying..


The only ones who should have had a game plan in place is the government.

They didn't expect leave to win either and that's why it shouldn't just be up to Tory party members to vote in our next Prime Minister.

And can the next PM really be from the remain camp?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-leadership-election-tory-mp-bill-cash-brexit-next-prime-minister-a7116826.html

I actually think that Mother Theresa was a secret Brexiter. She certainly didn't do the rounds during the campaign pushing for remain. In fact, she was rather conspicuous by her absence. Personally, I suspect she was hedging her bets to see how the dice would fall.

Fwiw I think the next Tory leader should be a Brexiter but as I don't trust Gove I hope its Angela. Liam Fox being a Doctor, can run the health service.

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Well it's obvious that neither the Leave campaign leaders or the Government had any kind of plan for leaving the EU. The whole house of cards was built on ridiculous assumptions that were justified by the equally ridiculous statement that "nobody knows for sure what will happen" (and therefore there's nothing to fear). True?

Reebok Trotter

Reebok Trotter
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

wanderlust wrote:Well it's obvious that neither the Leave campaign leaders or the Government had any kind of plan for leaving the EU. The whole house of cards was built on ridiculous assumptions that were justified by the equally ridiculous statement that "nobody knows for sure what will happen" (and therefore there's nothing to fear). True?

You are probably pretty close to the mark if truth be told.

Guest


Guest

Honest, genuine question now, not trying to pick a fight with anybody, but could the Leave voters not see that this was a likely outcome?

Guest


Guest

Leave campaigners were asked numerous times during the debates what Britain outside the EU would look like. They never answered the question except for with pie in the sky rhetoric on taking back control. I've said it numerous times over the last couple of years and I'll say it again, it's dangerous for politicians to simplify seriously complex issues into short, easily digestible statements just to win votes. That's exactly what the Leave campaign did and I'm still amazed it worked.

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Breadman wrote:Honest, genuine question now, not trying to pick a fight with anybody, but could the Leave voters not see that this was a likely outcome?


I'm looking at the bigger picture.

Yes, it's a bit shit now and probably for a good while - but in 10 years or so we will be stronger for it.

Admittedly a lot depends on strong leadership, but I still think people will look back on this outcome as a great thing.

scottjames30

scottjames30
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Negotiating new trade deals with Europe and other countries... 3689547696

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Natasha Whittam wrote:
Breadman wrote:Honest, genuine question now, not trying to pick a fight with anybody, but could the Leave voters not see that this was a likely outcome?


I'm looking at the bigger picture.

Yes, it's a bit shit now and probably for a good while - but in 10 years or so we will be stronger for it.
That crystalises the nation's hopes and I include myself in that despite feeling totally conned at the moment.

Which is why what happens over the next couple of months has to be watched very, very carefully because somehow we have managed to put the future of our nation on the line.

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

wanderlust wrote:
Which is why what happens over the next couple of months has to be watched very, very carefully because somehow we have managed to put the future of our nation on the line.

We haven't though.

There's been a total over-reaction to the result.

For most people nothing will change.

Guest


Guest

Natasha Whittam wrote:
wanderlust wrote:
Which is why what happens over the next couple of months has to be watched very, very carefully because somehow we have managed to put the future of our nation on the line.

We haven't though.

There's been a total over-reaction to the result.

For most people nothing will change.

You could easily be right in the end Nat, nobody knows how post Brexit Britain will look in 10 years time. 

But the reaction since has been a response to the economic backlash which nobody can deny has been as bad as Remain claimed it would. There were plenty of ludicrous scare stories pre referendum but it's clear the economic case wasn't one of them.

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

bwfc1874 wrote:

You could easily be right in the end Nat, nobody knows how post Brexit Britain will look in 10 years time. 

But the reaction since has been a response to the economic backlash which nobody can deny has been as bad as Remain claimed it would. There were plenty of ludicrous scare stories pre referendum but it's clear the economic case wasn't one of them.

Give it a few months, people will calm down. The people I've spoken to in the real business world see it as an opportunity.

It's what real people and businesses do that matters, not stupid politicians and their games.

whatsgoingon

whatsgoingon
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington

Nat do yourself a favour and don't use the word real in posts, it just makes you look like even more of a delusional ballsack.

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

whatsgoingon wrote:Nat do yourself a favour and don't use the word real in posts, it just makes you look like even more of a delusional ballsack.

I've been running Whittam International PLC since you were in nappies.

(ok, I get that you probably still wear adult nappies)

Guest


Guest

Natasha Whittam wrote:
whatsgoingon wrote:Nat do yourself a favour and don't use the word real in posts, it just makes you look like even more of a delusional ballsack.

I've been running Whittam International PLC since you were in nappies.

(ok, I get that you probably still wear adult nappies)
Wgo enquired about the walking football if my memory serves right.  So you are how old?

whatsgoingon

whatsgoingon
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington

Natasha Whittam wrote:
whatsgoingon wrote:Nat do yourself a favour and don't use the word real in posts, it just makes you look like even more of a delusional ballsack.

I've been running Whittam International PLC since you were in nappies.

(ok, I get that you probably still wear adult nappies)
Is a branch of Whittam international PLC responsible for the script writing of the big breakfast. I keep thinking you couldn't possibly look like a bigger fuck up and you keep proving me wrong.
:rofl:

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