Economy watch

Not quite true, 1874: the figures include the month since Brexit. Osborne's fears of immediate catastrophe have not been borne out. 

They also show that that the predicted pre-Brexit business "uncertainty" proved to be inconsequential at worst. 

They provide the world with some reassurance.....at least in the short term.

Breadman wrote:Couple of points:

GSK are a British company and £275m is small change for them.

(Compared to the $3.1 billion they were forced to stump up in unpaid taxes to the IRS in the States not that long ago.)

If this were some foreign company investing a serious amount, it'd be something to crow about but it's not.

It's just more pro-Brexit spin which proves nothing.

Don't let the truth get in the way of your negativity, had these figures been less than forecast and GSK said they were making £275m worth of cutbacks you'd have been all over them like a rash.
The forecast most certainly wouldn't have been spin and the £275m would have been much more significant.
The fact that it's a British company making the investment is more significant in my opinion because it sends out a message that confidence is high, they are a British company with a global presence they could easily have invested outside the UK.

Let's face it, the economic reaction hasn't been good so far - that's just a fact.

But we knew this would be the case, the question is how long will it last? It's uncertainty that's causing this, so will it continue until we finalise an agreement - which could be 2 years away? I don't think anybody knows.

okocha wrote:Not quite true, 1874: the figures include the month since Brexit. Osborne's fears of immediate catastrophe have not been borne out. 

They also show that that the predicted pre-Brexit business "uncertainty" proved to be inconsequential at worst. 

They provide the world with some reassurance.....at least in the short term.

Quite right Okocha, but that figure is a balance over the 3 months. The weeks after the vote showed a sharp downturn - 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

Which is not encouraging.

bwfc1874 wrote:Let's face it, the economic reaction hasn't been good so far - that's just a fact.

But we knew this would be the case, the question is how long will it last? It's uncertainty that's causing this, so will it continue until we finalise an agreement - which could be 2 years away? I don't think anybody knows.

This is what pisses people off, no one does know but many seem to think they do and pass that opinion on as fact.

Asserting something as "good" cannot be seen as a "fact"; it's an opinion.

1874, your BBC news item is dated 22 July. Here's one from just yesterday: 

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to the end of June, as economic growth accelerated in the run-up to the vote to leave the EU.


Second-quarter gross domestic product grew faster than expected, up from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said.
Any uncertainty ahead of last month's referendum seemed "limited", ONS said.
On a yearly basis the economy grew by a healthy 2.2%.


The pick-up in economic activity was boosted by the biggest upturn in industrial output since 1999, particularly from car factories and pharmaceutical firms.

'Position of strength'

ONS chief economist Joe Grice said that as well as the industrial gains, there was also "strong growth across the services sector, particularly retailing".
"Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect," he said. "Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."


Economists, including those at the Bank of England, had estimated second-quarter growth would be about 0.5%.


Chancellor Philip Hammond said the better-than-expected figures showed the fundamentals of the UK economy were "strong".

The lead stories in two of our daily newspapers today show how it's possible to interpret the news in totally different ways: The Guardian talks of the economy in terms of the start of "Brexit tremors", whereas the Express leads with "No stopping booming Britain".  Take your pick!

After all the lies and exaggerations leading up to the referendum, we are still subject to opinion and spin, so that forming a sound judgement becomes utterly confusing for most folk.

Okocha - you miss my point I'm afraid. The 0.6% figure is for the 3 months as a whole. The article dated 22 July refers to those post referendum weeks specifically.

I didn't assert anything as good, I said economic performance since the referendum has NOT been good. Which using any recognised measurement of economic performance is a cast iron fact.

whatsgoingon wrote:

bwfc1874 wrote:Let's face it, the economic reaction hasn't been good so far - that's just a fact.

But we knew this would be the case, the question is how long will it last? It's uncertainty that's causing this, so will it continue until we finalise an agreement - which could be 2 years away? I don't think anybody knows.

This is what pisses people off, no one does know but many seem to think they do and pass that opinion on as fact.

In fairness WGO, you've blown your lid a few times at others voicing their opinions. I think your main issue is not liking views that oppose your own.

okocha wrote:But the GSK investment will provide thousands more jobs and sends a positive message to the rest of the world.

And the better than forecast ONS growth figures: are they just spin too?

Lloyds cut 3000 jobs.

GSK didn't promise the creation of any new jobs as far as I'm aware, but at least there is some signal of job security for those they currently employ.

When you analyse the ONS figures it shows all sectors down apart from manufacturing and manufacturers yesterday implied they had a record April as orders poured in as nobody believed we'd be daft enough to leave the EU but everything dried up once the result was in.
Iron foundry owner interviewed on Radio 5 yesterday said after a record April, orders stopped completely after May 23 and reckons they'll struggle for at least the rest of the year, but said he was lucky because they have another foundry in northern Spain.
UK plant now operating at half production.

Did I just see the Daily Express described as a newspaper?

The banks have jumped on the "Use your phone app, not the High Street branches" model. Loyds up in the markets and profit yet shedding thousands of jobs. The shareholders will be rubbing their hands with the expectation of bumper dividends after saving loadsadosh on rent and rates and maintenance. Good job we are going to be paying EDF £90+ per KW Hour once Hinckley Point comes online. Latest cost will be £10pa per household. Those French too are going to be rich. Oh, well, candles are still cheap.

bwfc1874 wrote:

whatsgoingon wrote:

bwfc1874 wrote:Let's face it, the economic reaction hasn't been good so far - that's just a fact.

But we knew this would be the case, the question is how long will it last? It's uncertainty that's causing this, so will it continue until we finalise an agreement - which could be 2 years away? I don't think anybody knows.

This is what pisses people off, no one does know but many seem to think they do and pass that opinion on as fact.

In fairness WGO, you've blown your lid a few times at others voicing their opinions. I think your main issue is not liking views that oppose your own.

Nobody does & it isn't opinions that bother me I'll accept anybody's opinion, it's when they're passed off as more than opinion.
But you're right I have reacted more than I should have on occassion

What gets my goat is this argument that "nobody knows what will happen to the economy" when whilst that's technically correct as regards the specific details, we do have a bloody good idea of what the headline story will be.  The London Stock Exchange was founded in 1692 and the American SE in 1712 so we have 300 years of data and experience to work with and we've seen hundreds of challenges to confidence like the current one before. It's a smoke screen IMO.

Dear God man get a grip!

wanderlust wrote:What gets my goat is this argument that "nobody knows what will happen to the economy" when whilst that's technically correct as regards the specific details, we do have a bloody good idea of what the headline story will be.  The London Stock Exchange was founded in 1692 and the American SE in 1712 so we have 300 years of data and experience to work with and we've seen hundreds of challenges to confidence like the current one before. It's a smoke screen IMO.

Most have predicted uncertainty will cause a downturn, that's clearly happening. What's not clear is how long the uncertainty - and in turn the downturn - will last. No amount of data will accurately predict that as its about politics and negotiations not market trends.

Anybody else buying or selling a house ATM? Obviously the housing market is traditionally volatile but  usually the estate agents make a killing whichever way it goes, but not at the moment.
Foxton's who are big around London and the South East have just returned a 42% fall in profits and are reconsidering plans to open another 100 branches in and around London (shelved not scrapped) From where I am the housing market seems dead apart from properties under £250k. Are the boards staying up in your area or is there any movement?

boltonbonce wrote:Did I just see the Daily Express described as a newspaper?

A recent Express fact check.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-express-bananas-eu/23034

EU threatens future of British jam.