Economy watch

TP redundancies due to the pound is a convenient excuse for a cost cutting exercise as Unilever's was blatant profiteering.

I also believe that this was probably in the pipeline prior to Brexit, although they do have a ready-made excuse when announcing it.
Its a known fact, or at least, used to be, that when times get hard people go out and buy bigger telly's and home entertainment systems, as well as increasing DIY. I'm assuming that the thinking is that 'If I'm going to stay in, I may as well enjoy it'

gloswhite wrote:I also believe that this was probably in the pipeline prior to Brexit, although they do have a ready-made excuse when announcing it.

It's statistically likely that some organisations intended to downsize prior to the referendum and the uncertainty that has arisen does provide an excuse that the workers and unions would be more likely to accept, but equally it is statistically likely that other organisations were planning expansions and they don't seem to have materialised.
In the three months following the referendum, nett unemployment rose by 10,000 above and beyond the seasonal norm and that trend continues, so whichever way you stack it up, on balance employment levels are matching the economic uncertainty created by the referendum result and the subsequent devaluation of the pound and the rise in foreign investment in the FTSE 100 as inflation returns after a long absence.
The economy is in desperate need of some good news for business, however business opinions are split. Some feel that when the Government dismantle workers rights over the next Parliamentary term and endorse zero hours contracts it will provide the flexibility in the labour market to support business growth whereas others feel that an empowered workforce with job security and training does more for productivity.
And given that the UK already has one of the lowest productivity per capita levels in the developed world, something has to give - but we'll have to wait and see how it pans out as there is invariably compromise in these situations.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

wanderlust wrote:Name one...

Nigel Farage.

  
Intelligent?

Greedy bastard could quite easily pay for the shortfall in the pension fund, and still live like a king. What can he do with all that money ?

Nasty little shit but legally he isn't responsible for the pension fund situation. Morally he should have done more to protect it.

Main economic news today is that in the last month alone, Government borrowing rose to £10.6 billion. That's in a month.
Kinda puts into perspective the paltry £350 million that caused all the kerfuffle in the run up to the referendum.
The worrying thing is that it is a very expensive business keeping up the facade that all is well with the economy which is why the Tories gave a commitment to reduce our national debt and face the music. 
Clearly as things are going in the opposite direction they've changed their tune. That said, Labour would probably borrow more.
The problem is that I can never envisage a day when the Government says it's time to pay off our debts so we are going to cut investment in services and infrastructure for the next 5 years. However it would be a little more encouraging if we kept debt (and interest repayments) at a lower level than it currently is.

Currently we are paying around £50 BILLION per annum interest on our debts. That's £50 billion that would do wonders for the NHS and other services instead of going to the world bank.

i was surprised to hear today that the Russian economy is smaller than the UK's, and about the size of Italy's, and its in recession. Easy to see how Putin is taking the people's mind off the falling rouble.

gloswhite wrote:i was surprised to hear today that the Russian economy is smaller than the UK's, and about the size of Italy's, and its in recession. Easy to see how Putin is taking the people's mind off the falling rouble.

It's an anomaly Glos. 
They have high inflation (around 6 or 7 %) which has meant that the people have effectively had a reduction in their spending power of more than 8% this year, which means they spend less so there is less tax income ergo the economy is stagnating. The figures are muddied because the state owns a lot of the "official" economy and there is a huge "black economy" whose figures don't feed in - and don't generate any tax income for the Government to spend - so it's not directly comparable.

Russia under Putin is in the very economic situation of increasing inflation/reducing spend/reducing tax income etc that Theresa May has to avoid despite the devaluation of the pound.

Banking is Britain's biggest export and brings in £65 billion in taxes per annum so it's a bit of a concern when the suggestion that lots of banks may relocate out of the UK on the back of the referendum according to this article.

I think the BBA are firing a shot across the PM's bows to make her aware that if we quit the single market, we will lose "passporting" rights which will split the European financial services market to the detriment of both the EU and the UK. Just a warning at this stage though. Still £65 billion does need to be protected somehow as it's a helluva lot of schools and hospitals.

China's investment in Spain has now reached 60% of Spanish total inward investment prompting forecasters to suggest Spain's economy will grow by 3% next year. Most of the money seems to be going into heavy manufacturing in the north to take advantage of the big ports.

By comparison, our latest post-referendum growth forecast is being heralded by the Telegraph as a sign that Brexit won't make much difference despite the fact that growth is currently expected to be around the 1% mark next year. Prior to the referendum it was forecast at around 2.5%.

Until we know what the exit deal is in a couple of years time we are stuck with considerable  uncertainty and speculation so the Government need to get on with it and face the music asap.

Without that money, we won't be able to pay the mega millions bonuses

gloswhite wrote:Without that money, we won't be able to pay the mega millions bonuses

Fortunately the Government gets the £65 billion before the bonuses are handed out. 
That's a lot of money - about 14% of our national annual budget. 

Nobody likes the Wolf of Wall Street culture and the ridiculous amount of money they earn in the City but in mitigation they do earn more for the country than any other sector.

Good news - sort of.

In the three months following the referendum the economy grow by half a percent!
That said the previous quarter showed growth of 0.7% so it has slowed down but not as much as the forecasters initially though it would - they estimated growth would fall to 0.3%. 

Growth was all in the service sector with construction, manufacturing and industrial production all in negative growth - despite the pound being devalued by 20%.

wanderlust wrote:Good news - sort of.

In the three months following the referendum the economy grow by half a percent!
That said the previous quarter showed growth of 0.7% so it has slowed down but not as much as the forecasters initially though it would - they estimated growth would fall to 0.3%. 

Growth was all in the service sector with construction, manufacturing and industrial production all in negative growth - despite the pound being devalued by 20%.

And Nissan has agreed to build their next two models at their Sundeland plant guaranteeing 7,000 ,jobs. Plus this has been a bumper year for tourism with a massive influx of foreign holidaymakers taking advantage of the weak pound, mainly Americans.

Unfortunately the price of fuel is beginning to rise noticeably, due to dollar v pound, which always, in time has a big knock on for goods delivered.

Reebok Trotter mentioned in passing: wrote:And Nissan has agreed to build their next two models at their Sundeland plant guaranteeing 7,000 ,jobs. 

I don't really think "not closing down" is proper news RT - there'd be a helluva lot of news if every company that isn't changing anything for now puts out a press release to that effect. Although I suppose Nissan apparently have 2 new models to promote.
It's good that Nissan have decided to stay a bit longer. I'm just wondering why they are saying they are building "the next two models" in Sunderland - as opposed to just saying they're staying put which would give more of a sense of job security to their workforce? Did the 7000 even consider that Nissan might pull out of Sunderland?
If so, I'm not convinced this is the reassurance they were looking for.
Personally I don't think that many of the "global" businesses will pull out of the UK because they are used to working in a wide range of economies and will be able to adapt their production and pay structure accordingly. It's how wage control in an inflating economy affects the people that concerns me, but that's not likely to have much impact for a while yet.

About time all the Remoaners admitted and accepted that the gloomy forecasts about what would happen immediately after the referendum have simply not transpired. Osborne, in particular, has been shown to be massively wide of the mark with his failed project fear. May was wisely, thankfully and promptly decisive in ejecting him from the cabinet. 

In our future negotiations, to achieve the best possible deals for the country, we need everyone to promote the positive now and cease to project any spin that might deter prospective partners.

Here's a copy of the top-rated public comment on the BBC site in response to today's economic news:

"Great news that the UK has the highest economic growth of any of the G8 nations and Nissan is investing heavily in Sunderland.

Fair to say now that the Treasury 'Brexit' forecasts and Remain rhetoric turned out to be pure baloney."

okocha wrote:About time all the Remoaners admitted and accepted that the gloomy forecasts about what would happen immediately after the referendum have simply not transpired.

I withdrew the equivalent of £100 from an ATM in Portugal recently.

I got 98 Euros.

In July, a similar transaction in Spain delivered 115 Euros.

Last December (prior to the Brexit vote) I got 122 Euros for my £100.

And you can't blame it all a global economic downturn because things are supposedly on the up, worldwide.

In comparison with our European neighbours, we are (financially) worse of as a direct result of the Brexit result.

That is a fact.

So I reserve the right to continue remoaning.

And we haven't even left the EU yet.