Economy watch

How much of Sterling's fall "correction" as there is or seems to be an admission that it has been overvalued for sometime and how much is due to "uncertainty" caused by the referendum result? I know a definite figure cannot be arrived at but as inflation, employment and interest rates have remained relatively unchanged and there hasn't been any other major financial event that I can think of is it just the market making a few bob gambling on sterling's value?

I know the pound has devalued vs the dollar but so has the Euro.

We haven't left the EU yet and it is still too early to see the consequences of leaving.

Osborne and co. had incorrectly predicted calamity in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote. 

Now that the decision has been taken, we need to adopt a united, positive attitude in order to ensure the best possible outcome, giving confidence to the rest of the world about "being open for business".

People are so short term, only bothered about how it hits them in the pocket now. Just buy a few less fags, beers and sweets you tosspots, and you really don't need the full Sky package.

In 20 years this will be heralded as a turning point in British society and people of the future will forever be thankful to us.

Great people can think long term, wankers can't see past next week.

okocha wrote:Osborne and co. had incorrectly predicted calamity in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote. 

Now that the decision has been taken, we need to adopt a united, positive attitude in order to ensure the best possible outcome, giving confidence to the rest of the world about "being open for business".

Yes Osborne and co did exagerate the immediate consequences of a brexit vote as part of the ludicrous project fear campaign but 48% of those who voted thought brexit was a mistake and I see no reason why they should now pretend that everything is going to be OK. Our negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world are not going to be influenced by what voters think anyway.

xmiles wrote:Yes Osborne and co did exagerate the immediate consequences of a brexit vote as part of the ludicrous project fear campaign but 48% of those who voted thought brexit was a mistake and I see no reason why they should now pretend that everything is going to be OK.

What does continually moaning achieve though? It's utterly pointless. I think some people would rather the country went bankrupt and unemployment was at 95% just so they could say "I told you so" from their cardboard box behind the Town Hall.

Natasha Whittam wrote:People are so short term, only bothered about how it hits them in the pocket now. Just buy a few less fags, beers and sweets you tosspots, and you really don't need the full Sky package.

In 20 years this will be heralded as a turning point in British society and people of the future will forever be thankful to us.

Great people can think long term, wankers can't see past next week.

I agree that we think short term far too much in this country - look at the farce over the decision about Heathrow for example - and we will definitely only see the consequences of brexit in years to come. I would expect the position to be a lot clearer in say 3 or 4 years rather than 20 though.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

xmiles wrote:Yes Osborne and co did exagerate the immediate consequences of a brexit vote as part of the ludicrous project fear campaign but 48% of those who voted thought brexit was a mistake and I see no reason why they should now pretend that everything is going to be OK.

What does continually moaning achieve though? It's utterly pointless. I think some people would rather the country went bankrupt and unemployment was at 95% just so they could say "I told you so" from their cardboard box behind the Town Hall.

This is the problem with using a referendum to decide things. There is no recall unlike with elections.

If the referendum had gone the other way, especially with that size margin, would brexiteers have shut up about the EU? They very definitely would not have and Farage was quite explicit about that point. Look at how long right wing Tories have been causing trouble in the Tory party.

xmiles wrote:

This is the problem with using a referendum to decide things. There is no recall unlike with elections.

If the referendum had gone the other way, especially with that size margin, would brexiteers have shut up about the EU? They very definitely would not have and Farage was quite explicit about that point. Look at how long right wing Tories have been causing trouble in the Tory party.

I agree it was a spineless thing for Cameron to call a referendum, strong leadership was needed and if he was convinced it benefited us to stay in the EU he should have said so and stayed in.

But now we're out, yet we still have two sides sniping at each other. What's the point, what does it achieve?

If everyone just embraced the change things would be a lot smoother.

The economy has definitely gone downhill since the referendum - just not by as much as the Remain predictions yet - and that's because none of the proposed changes have happened so at the moment we're just dealing with the impact of the speculation surrounding Brexit as opposed to a response to actual trading figures and GDP etc.

We can only hope that we can put in a solid economic performance for the next few years to restore confidence in the UK and the pound because that is the problem currently.

What is clear is that predictions on both sides are in the balance for the foreseeable future as nobody expected the pound to fall so low so quickly, and eventually - and it will take a couple of years before we get the full effect - the positive impact in reducing the cost of exporting and the negative impact of having to buy goods and raw materials at an inflated price will both kick in - and the net effect is unpredictable.

At the moment, it's looking like Britain will move towards being a low cost labour market with a general trend towards capping/freezing wages and that will be used to attract foreign investment with multinationals coming here to minimise manufacturing costs and then selling the goods to the European market.

I expect the pain that the Chancellor constantly says we will have to go through will take the form of rising prices against a background of fixed low/capped wages although I really hope the prognosis is better than that and our negotiators pull a decent deal or two out of the hat.

However in order to take advantage of any decent trade details, the Government has to turn around the current decline in construction, manufacturing and industrial production so it's going to be a bit of a juggling act although this Gov has form in trying to borrow their way out of problems like this.

Agreed Nat. Profits are being creamed off our currencies because of the in-fighting, bitching, and back-biting going on in the country. Its pathetic, and means that we are, unsurprisingly, our own worst enemy. 
This habit of letting the world and his wife contest every decision being made is ridiculous, an example being the third runway. Its taken from 1968 to now to make a decision, and it may not even happen. Especially when we are in desperate need of construction, and infrastructure increases.
Lets hope we don't suffer from any natural disaster, as we'll never ever manage to sort things out.

The "last ever" Autumn Statement was a bit scary as expected with Hammond desperately trying to sweeten the air by promising a little, borrowing more than ever before and abandoning the Governments pledge to reduce the national debt. Ironically, the Tories were elected on the pledge to balance the debt by 2015 but it's looking like it will be 2 trillion pounds by the end of this parliament - more than double the debt they inherited from Labour.
Clear statement from Hammond that Brexit is to blame for the impending economic difficulties over the next few years and that Brexit is the driver for the incredible gamble he intends to take - a sort of "not my fault" statement - even though they have caused the problem, created the need for austerity and totally f****d up our trade deals.

In brief he said we're in for slower growth, reduced tax revenues, higher prices, and for the first time in history lower wages than the previous decade. Working families will be £800 worse off by 2020.

Not sure what was positive about the statement. He promised to build 140k houses over the next few years when the industry estimates demand at 250k new houses every year. A few other tiny pots of money for various crowd-pleasing ideas, but it's hard to look past raising our national debt to over 90% of GDP.

Surely, if he wanted to revitalise the economy and restore confidence in the market he'd have put all the money into investment in infrastructure and industry?

What a f*****g mess! 

And as for the gimmick of moving the Autumn Statement to Spring - what's going to happen to the budget? Or are the Tories planning to scrap that so people won't see what a disaster they are presiding over?

I sometimes think that if we were all given a pot of gold, somebody would still complain, (not aimed at you Wander).

Unfortunately, times are going to be hard, no matter what happens, and its not all down to Brexit either. If the strongest currencies in the world are suffering, then its obvious were not going to be immune to any knock-on effects.

The bottom line is that all Western government's have been living beyond their means for a very long time, as resources become more scarce and populations, and their aspirations increase our way of life becomes less and less sustainable. It may well be that living standards in the West in particular have peeked and that economies based on growth are no longer viable, sooner or later we will simply run out of stuff whether it be energy, land, raw materials or even water. The rapid rise in living standards the West has experienced in the last 100 years or so will probably be recorded in history as a blip.

NickFazer wrote:The bottom line is that all Western government's have been living beyond their means for a very long time, as resources become more scarce and populations, and their aspirations increase our way of life becomes less and less sustainable. It may well be that living standards in the West in particular have peeked and that economies based on growth are no longer viable, sooner or later we will simply run out of stuff whether it be energy, land, raw materials or even water. The rapid rise in living standards the West has experienced in the last 100 years or so will probably be recorded in history as a blip.

Just when I thought that 2016 couldn't get any shittier, you're now predicting a Dystopian future wherein we all live in mud huts and are forced to eat Rustler burgers (cold) to survive.

Cheers, Nick......

National debt is a  weird one because there's no way that the big western military powers are ever going to pay the world bank back. It's just a way of robbing the Arabs to fuel the perpetual growth needed to maintain out-of-control population growth. 

Austerity and telling folk to stop breeding if they can't afford kids will never happen.

NickFazer wrote:The bottom line is that all Western government's have been living beyond their means for a very long time, as resources become more scarce and populations, and their aspirations increase our way of life becomes less and less sustainable. It may well be that living standards in the West in particular have peeked and that economies based on growth are no longer viable, sooner or later we will simply run out of stuff whether it be energy, land, raw materials or even water. The rapid rise in living standards the West has experienced in the last 100 years or so will probably be recorded in history as a blip.

Too many people, too few resources. very true.
Expect changes to the way we live, not just the cost, in the years to come.
At the current rate of birth. and inability to manage the changes, we can look forward to working harder, for longer, less benefits, worse living conditions, along with the value of life decreasing, to allow euthanasia for the sick and elderly, and ending of life allowed. Don't be surprised to see the imposition of family sizes, (just as China have relaxed their laws for economic reasons). There will be more fighting, whether religious or as a land grab, when it will appear an easier solution to people as well as governments. Law and order will be reinforced with more severe penalties. Personal wealth will be reduced to almost nothing, so removing personal choice, and thus making it easy to manage the masses, while personal transport and mobility will be for the elite only. For those of you who have read 1984, you will have seen many pointers of how society could change. 
You only have to look back 20-30 years to see how much the world, and its effects on people, have changed, and these same effects are accelerating. The problem is that instead of trying to avoid such outcomes, we bicker and argue over the smallest decision, so prolonging any crucial actions needed, (even if we knew what to do). 
Humanity is heading for a bleak future, if current indicators are anything to go by.

Stopping claiming that climate change is a Chinese hoax designed to scupper the American coal and oil industries and continuing the move away from fossil fuels and towards alternative energy sources would be a start......

wanderlust wrote:National debt is a  weird one because there's no way that the big western military powers are ever going to pay the world bank back. It's just a way of robbing the Arabs to fuel the perpetual growth needed to maintain out-of-control population growth. 

Austerity and telling folk to stop breeding if they can't afford kids will never happen.

You are going to have to explain that one to me. How are we "robbing the Arabs"? Saudi and the Gulf states have vast oil reserves which they make big profits out of selling to other countries.

Bread2.0 wrote:

NickFazer wrote:The bottom line is that all Western government's have been living beyond their means for a very long time, as resources become more scarce and populations, and their aspirations increase our way of life becomes less and less sustainable. It may well be that living standards in the West in particular have peeked and that economies based on growth are no longer viable, sooner or later we will simply run out of stuff whether it be energy, land, raw materials or even water. The rapid rise in living standards the West has experienced in the last 100 years or so will probably be recorded in history as a blip.

Just when I thought that 2016 couldn't get any shittier, you're now predicting a Dystopian future wherein we all live in mud huts and are forced to eat Rustler burgers (cold) to survive.

Cheers, Nick......

If Rustler burgers are the future then show me the way to a Suicide Booth. I don't think a dystopia is the likeliest outcome although it is one scenario, in the end we will have to find a way to live together and for the common good but we are a long way from growing up as a species I'm afraid.