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The run-in to promotion

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xmiles
RustyNail
Norpig
MartinBWFC
Bread2.0
terenceanne
NickFazer
Natasha Whittam
finlaymcdanger
observer
Sluffy
gloswhite
rammywhite
BoltonTillIDie
wanderlust
19 posters

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1The run-in to promotion Empty The run-in to promotion Thu Apr 06 2017, 10:03

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Having overcome Southend I am now far more confident that we can't be caught and after all it's in our hands. But supposing we do go into meltdown. Is there anything in the remaining fixtures that would give us hope that Bradford and Fleetwood might drop points themselves?

Not much from what I can see other than Bradford's away tie at Sheff U - although SU may have promotion wrapped up by then. 

Fleetwood have:

Oldham A
Posh H
Millwall H - could be close
Gills A
Port V H

Is 13 points a fair assessment of that?

Bradford have:

Bury A
Oxford H
SU A
AFC Wimbledon H
Rochdale A - could be a last day battle if Dale are still in with a shout

I'm thinking 11 points i.e. not enough.

If that comes true it means we need 6 more points (7 to be sure) from:

Scunny A
Oldham A
Bury H
Port Vale A
Posh H

...and if we don't make that we wouldn't deserve to be promoted.

It's ours to lose and I suspect these two teams will chase us all the way but surely we can't blow this advantage now? Can we?

2The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Thu Apr 06 2017, 11:32

BoltonTillIDie

BoltonTillIDie
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Fleetwood - 13 Pts

Win - Oldham - 3Pts
Win - Posh - 3Pts
Draw - Millwall - 1pt
Win - Gills - 3Pts
Win - Port V -3Pts

Bradford - 10 Points

Win - Bury - 3Pts
Win - Oxford - 3Pts
Loss - Sheff Utd - 0Pts
Win - AFC Wimbledon - 3Pts
Draw - Rochdale - 1Pt


Bolton - 15Pts


Win - Scunny - 3Pts
Win - Oldham - 3Pts
Win - Bury - 3Pts
Win - Port Vale - 3Pts
Win - Posh - 3Pts



we'll comfortably get the 2nd spot

3The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Thu Apr 06 2017, 11:36

rammywhite

rammywhite
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington

We'll get 9 points from this lot- the last three will be wins-and that will see us home and dry

4The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Fri Apr 07 2017, 09:29

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

I like the predictions, but lets not forget how we tend to trip up against the lower, or struggling, teams.
Having said that, I'm hopeful that we can make it. 
Of the final 15 points available, we already have 7 of them, plus better GD, so even if we stand still, (unlikely), Fleetwood need a guaranteed 3 wins to get in front of us, so, to my thinking, we need two wins out of the remaining games to guarantee it. (or have I missed something ?)

5The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Fri Apr 07 2017, 12:12

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

gloswhite wrote:Of the final 15 points available, we already have 7 of them, plus better GD, so even if we stand still, (unlikely), Fleetwood need a guaranteed 3 wins to get in front of us, so, to my thinking, we need two wins out of the remaining games to guarantee it. (or have I missed something ?)

Well I guess Fleetwood could win all their remaining 5 games and we could lose all ours, so they would finish 8 points in front of us (15 points less the 7 point lead we have now) - so in that case we would need 3 wins (and not two) to be mathematically certain of promotion.

Obviously the less points Fleetwood get the less we would need - just so long as we both don't drop so many that it lets Bradford back in.

I can't not see us going up in reality though and have been so for quite some time now.

6The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sat Apr 08 2017, 13:58

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

I hope youre right Sluffy, but just one wrong result sets us all  off again Very Happy

7The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 00:30

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

8The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 01:05

observer


Andy Walker
Andy Walker

Essentially, Fleetwood and Bradford have to win 3 of their 4 remaining games to have a shot at second.  Saying that, if we win one and draw one of the remaining 4, that would put us at 83 points, and either Fleetwood or Bradford would have to then win all 4 remaining games to beat us.  If we win 2, it is over... if we win one and draw two, it is over.  Second is within our own grasp... and I hope we don't limp to the finish line, but climb over it.  Let's go out strong!

9The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 03:46

finlaymcdanger

finlaymcdanger
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington

We'll go up but Madine is the key to securing it quickly. Never thought I would say that but I think it's the reality to how we best perform. We rarely take the easy path but I believe we'll crawl over the line and go up automatically

10The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 10:02

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

wanderlust wrote:How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

Sheffield United won.

11The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 10:52

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Sluffy wrote:
wanderlust wrote:How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

Sheffield United won.

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12The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:05

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

I hope the players have read this:

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13The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:54

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

What some people seem to ignore is that we now have 2 teams who could, theoretically, overtake us, whereas, up to yesterday, there was only one. I consider that to mean the pressure has increased, and though there is only 4 games to go, its going to go to the wire. 
We have 2 teams who will be playing for mid table mediocrity, (although wanting to go out in style for their fans), and 2 playing for survival. Its not the easiest of run-ins, but, I hope, manageable.

14The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:57

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

If we fuck it up from here heads should roll.

Starting with the manager, who appears clueless.

15The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 13:38

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

One thing Parky isn't is clueless, although we have a bigger budget than most in this league, which is an advantage he has still turned around a team that came down from the Championship with one of the worst records ever into one that should go back up at the 1st attempt. A team that was a soft touch especially away from home and conceded goals for fun, a team that would drop it's collective head as soon as any kind of setback occurred, a team so lacking in morale and confidence it looked frightened to death even if it got in front in a game.

His teams will probably never get any points for style but we have been in every single game this season and when we haven't played well have at least competed. If we go up next season will be a struggle, we all know what the Championship is like, to survive you need to be aggressive, organised and work hard at least with Parky those requirements should be met.

16The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 13:52

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

NickFazer wrote:One thing Parky isn't is clueless

He is clueless.

He has one tactic, hoof it to Madine and cross his fingers.

When Madine hasn't played he has continued the same tactic but with little men up front or, like yesterday, brought in a tall player who isn't good enough for professional football.

Anyone who went to the Chesterfield game will feel my frustration. Imagine that sort of performance when we're rooted in the bottom three of the Championship.

To survive in the Championship we will need to adapt to different situations, Parky has consistently shown he has one tactic and one tactic only.

Our last season in the Championship consisted of one tactic also - hoof it to Madine or Heskey, remind me how that ended?

I'll tell you now, if we go up we will be relegated by February with Parky in charge. At the end of the season I'd thank him for his services and get rid.

17The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 15:08

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

gloswhite wrote:What some people seem to ignore is that we now have 2 teams who could, theoretically, overtake us, whereas, up to yesterday, there was only one. I consider that to mean the pressure has increased, and though there is only 4 games to go, its going to go to the wire. 
We have 2 teams who will be playing for mid table mediocrity, (although wanting to go out in style for their fans), and 2 playing for survival. Its not the easiest of run-ins, but, I hope, manageable.
Technically there are still 4 teams that can overtake us Glos - although Millwall would have to win all their games and score a bucketload to do it whilst we lose all our remaining games spectacularly.

Until yesterday, there were 5 teams that could theoretically have caught us but with Southend losing to Charlton there are now only 4.


The good news is that yesterday confirmed that we are guaranteed a playoff place at least.

::dance::

With Oldham only being 3 points above the drop zone, I make it 3 teams we still have to play who are in danger of relegation but hey - they are down there for a reason so we really don't have any excuses if we blow it from here.

18The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Sun Apr 09 2017, 20:23

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Natasha Whittam wrote:
NickFazer wrote:One thing Parky isn't is clueless

He is clueless.

He has one tactic, hoof it to Madine and cross his fingers.

When Madine hasn't played he has continued the same tactic but with little men up front or, like yesterday, brought in a tall player who isn't good enough for professional football.

Anyone who went to the Chesterfield game will feel my frustration. Imagine that sort of performance when we're rooted in the bottom three of the Championship.

To survive in the Championship we will need to adapt to different situations, Parky has consistently shown he has one tactic and one tactic only.

Our last season in the Championship consisted of one tactic also - hoof it to Madine or Heskey, remind me how that ended?

I'll tell you now, if we go up we will be relegated by February with Parky in charge. At the end of the season I'd thank him for his services and get rid.

I never said he was tactical genius, but he can't be clueless. He knows how to get a completely dysfunctional rabble to be organised and resilient enough to be within 6 points of automatic promotion with 4 games left, win 11 times on the road when we couldn't buy a win last season and have the best defensive record in the division. If that's clueless then what does that make the rest? Parky may well get found out in the Championship but surely he should get a shot

19The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Mon Apr 10 2017, 18:12

terenceanne

terenceanne
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Obviously the Wilkinson experiment didn't work but I am for giving young lads a chance. So not overly complaining. But can somebody explain to me Wheater being thrown upfront when we have Long parked on the bench. Anyhow for me a couple of tweaks for Tuesday... Long in obviously, and Derik in for Dervite ..... and maybe Karacan as an early sub for Spearing or Pratts .....depending on how it's going.

20The run-in to promotion Empty Re: The run-in to promotion Mon Apr 10 2017, 18:15

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

terenceanne wrote:Obviously the Wilkinson experiment didn't work but I am for giving young lads a chance. So not overly complaining. But can somebody explain to me Wheater being thrown upfront when we have Long parked on the bench. Anyhow for me a couple of tweaks for Tuesday... Long in obviously, and Derik in for Dervite ..... and maybe Karacan as an early sub for Spearing or Pratts .....depending on how it's going.

Clueless.

You'd change the defence despite conceding just 1 goal in the last 4 matches?

The problem is tactics and striking personnel.

Consider yourself branded a bellend. Again.

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