Just shy of another 4,000 new cases of the virus - I'm still having difficulty understanding these numbers...
...and it seems the government health advisors do too! -
16:27
Testing at a 'high plateau'
Prof Van-Tam has shown a graph of the UK's daily testing data. He said we appeared to be at a "high plateau" around the 100,000 testing mark.
Turning to the increase in new cases, he said the data shows how mass swab testing is helping identify cases of Covid-19 in the population but acknowledged the difficulty in identifying trends from this data.
"Interpret the data with a degree of care please," he said of the numbers, which show 3,896 more cases were confirmed in the UK in the 24 hours until 09:00 on Saturday.
I can get my head around whether these new cases ARE 'new cases or just picking up people who HAD the virus and not really realised it?
In the graph below, it shows the total of 'new cases' are comprised of those tested by the NHS (blue) and those by others, universities, research industries, etc (orange)
Now I'm guessing that the NHS tests are done in hospitals - the trend is clearly dropping - in line with deaths as well it must be said - and the orange testing are the 'home kits' which you do via the post and the 'pop up sites' that I think(?) the army are doing.
I'm further guessing that they also include 'private' care homes and the NHS are doing 'state' care homes - are there still such a thing?
Anyway the increase in testing have clearly found more 'new' cases but haven't as yet manifested itself into more 'new' deaths - maybe there is a time lag that will hit in say three or four weeks time?
Another guess of mine is that IF all these additional thousands of 'new' cases found recently are NOT people who have HAD the virus, then logic would suggest that such a number of these 'new' cases would be requiring hospitalisation - unfortunately I can't seem to find an up to date statistical chart for this - the best I can find is here from 4 days ago.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883305/2020-05-05_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__002_.pdf
So either we are getting a load of new cases, which will manifest themselves in increased hospitalisation (and a spike in deaths further down the line) or the tests must be showing people who have HAD the virus and presumably no longer currently have it?
I guess we will find out one way or the other soon enough BUT if they are 'new' cases genuinely, then where have they all suddenly come from (they can't ALL be from care homes) and as a chunk of these new cases must have come from people who might work in hospital/care homes but return home into the community and statistically must be spreading the virus to family, friends and work colleagues who are also living in the community too?
Something doesn't seem to quite fit here to my way of thinking?
Am I missing something obvious?
...and it seems the government health advisors do too! -
16:27
Testing at a 'high plateau'
Prof Van-Tam has shown a graph of the UK's daily testing data. He said we appeared to be at a "high plateau" around the 100,000 testing mark.
Turning to the increase in new cases, he said the data shows how mass swab testing is helping identify cases of Covid-19 in the population but acknowledged the difficulty in identifying trends from this data.
"Interpret the data with a degree of care please," he said of the numbers, which show 3,896 more cases were confirmed in the UK in the 24 hours until 09:00 on Saturday.
I can get my head around whether these new cases ARE 'new cases or just picking up people who HAD the virus and not really realised it?
In the graph below, it shows the total of 'new cases' are comprised of those tested by the NHS (blue) and those by others, universities, research industries, etc (orange)
Now I'm guessing that the NHS tests are done in hospitals - the trend is clearly dropping - in line with deaths as well it must be said - and the orange testing are the 'home kits' which you do via the post and the 'pop up sites' that I think(?) the army are doing.
I'm further guessing that they also include 'private' care homes and the NHS are doing 'state' care homes - are there still such a thing?
Anyway the increase in testing have clearly found more 'new' cases but haven't as yet manifested itself into more 'new' deaths - maybe there is a time lag that will hit in say three or four weeks time?
Another guess of mine is that IF all these additional thousands of 'new' cases found recently are NOT people who have HAD the virus, then logic would suggest that such a number of these 'new' cases would be requiring hospitalisation - unfortunately I can't seem to find an up to date statistical chart for this - the best I can find is here from 4 days ago.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883305/2020-05-05_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__002_.pdf
So either we are getting a load of new cases, which will manifest themselves in increased hospitalisation (and a spike in deaths further down the line) or the tests must be showing people who have HAD the virus and presumably no longer currently have it?
I guess we will find out one way or the other soon enough BUT if they are 'new' cases genuinely, then where have they all suddenly come from (they can't ALL be from care homes) and as a chunk of these new cases must have come from people who might work in hospital/care homes but return home into the community and statistically must be spreading the virus to family, friends and work colleagues who are also living in the community too?
Something doesn't seem to quite fit here to my way of thinking?
Am I missing something obvious?