Coronavirus - Leicester

I've not understood what's been going on here so decided to try and find out because this thing isn't going away anytime soon and the more I can understand what's going on the better I feel (being one of those in the 'at risk' category).

In simple terms tests are being carried out and 'reported' but not in any meaningful way it seems - hence all this uncertainty about Leicester where the locals didn't seem to even know there was a problem?

The issue seems to stem from what exactly is reported from the testing.

In simple terms there are two major testing groups, those done by the hospitals (known as 'pillar 1' data) and those by commercial labs (pillar 2 data).  

Both seem to be given added together at the daily national updates BUT only the pillar 1 details are given out to the public.

For instance if you click the link below you can see what the daily 'running' total is in your local area - for Leicester the area post code is  LE2 -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Up to the 29th June it shows 1,056 confirmed cases.

However when the Tier 2 Lab tests are added - (and taken from the link to today's Daily Mail) -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8473769/The-36-areas-England-Covid-19-cases-RISING.html

"The massive disparity in figures is seen clearly in Leicester. Leicester City Council (LCC) claims there has been 3,216 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases across the city since Britain's outbreak began to spiral out of control in February".

It goes on to say -

"Local officials revealed 944 of those Covid-19 infections were diagnosed in the past fortnight — meaning the city's epidemic has grown by roughly 70.6 per cent since mid-June".

I assume therefore that the 3,216 total is therefore made up of 1,056 tier 1 positive tests, 1,216 tier 2 tests from Feb to mid June plus the 944 in the last two weeks - which I think is confimred in the tweet chart below.

To put it in to pictures which are easier to understand I've found this from a reporter from the FT -

But the govt is sitting on a much more complete dataset including pillar 2, which tells a completely different story

More than 90% of new cases in Leicester are now under pillar 2, yet these numbers are not public. If you’re a local biz owner in Leicester, you only see the blue. pic.twitter.com/aZY20EuOGc

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) June 30, 2020

What I can't understand is if the government had the details - and surely they must have had (they were talking about 11 days ago), why was nothing seemingly done much sooner?

Also begs the question why they are not adding tier 2 positive tests to the daily information they are already giving out on positive test reporting?

I know stats and figures can just about prove whatever you want but clearly somethings gone very awry here when a major city (350,000 population apparently) is seemingly completely unaware there is a major pandemic emergency growing quickly in its own community?

I guess rhetorically the question should also be asked, how did Leicester not know, surely they must have seen an increase in admissions to their local hospitals for instance?

Anybody with any views or thoughts on this?

Exactly the same things could happen/be happening were you live!

As I've been saying for a while Sluffy, the figures the Government give out are at complete odds with the ONS excess deaths data. I have absolutely no doubt that this is purely for political reasons i.e. to try to cover up their complete and abject failure.
Whilst excess deaths data isn't a perfect measure, it's pretty damned close and because it takes a lot of the unknown variables out of the equation* it is far more useful for getting a handle on the real picture AND for comparing performance in controlling the virus with other countries - which is probably the last thing the Government wants as they are the worst performing.

* the only unknown variable is how many of the additional deaths are due to Covid - and given that there is no reported upsurge in any other cause of death it's likely to be just about all of them.
If so, pushing 70 thousand Brits have perished from it. 

That's as high as the total number of UK civilian deaths during the Blitz, the rest of WW2, soldiers in the Falkland War, the Afghan War and the Iraq War all put together.

wanderlust wrote:As I've been saying for a while Sluffy, the figures the Government give out are at complete odds with the ONS excess deaths data. I have absolutely no doubt that this is purely for political reasons i.e. to try to cover up their complete and abject failure.
Whilst excess deaths data isn't a perfect measure, it's pretty damned close and because it takes a lot of the unknown variables out of the equation* it is far more useful for getting a handle on the real picture AND for comparing performance in controlling the virus with other countries - which is probably the last thing the Government wants as they are the worst performing.

* the only unknown variable is how many of the additional deaths are due to Covid - and given that there is no reported upsurge in any other cause of death it's likely to be just about all of them.
If so, pushing 70 thousand Brits have perished from it. 

That's as high as the total number of UK civilian deaths during the Blitz, the rest of WW2, soldiers in the Falkland War, the Afghan War and the Iraq War all put together.

No offence Lusty and I realise you can't be in a happy place with what's happening to your brother but you are simply talking out of your backside based purely on your political bias/hatred of Johnson/Cummings.

All the figures the government have given out have been in complete accord with the ONS, the exception being what was reported as the number of people tested total - because one person may have had to have more than one test on the same day.

Indeed it was the Office for Statistical Regulation who complained about how this total was being reported and the government has since stopped doing so, and have been explicit in their wording at briefings ever since.

All the details of the information on the data sources and methodology used are there to view on the governments official website - and has been from the very start.

So it's no cover up or attempt to mislead as you no doubt believe by reading such conspiracy shit on social media (which of course you tell us you don't go on - yeah right!).

Ironically it looks from a superficial view at least that part of the reason pillar 2 information has stopped being reported and contributed to the delay for details in respect of Leicester (and other places perhaps) is directly down to the complaint by the OSR above!

For example this is what it reports today (which it does every day - updating/claying what the true figures are -  

"30 June notes
To ensure consistent reporting across all pillars we have paused reporting the number of people tested due to an issue with the data for pillar 2. There are a small percentage of cases in pillar 2 where a person has been tested more than once or tested positive for coronavirus more than once. Any incorrect figures identified will be corrected.

The total number of tests has been revised since yesterday’s total after the following changes to the historical data:

2,464 tests added to the pillar 1 cumulative total
485 tests added to the pillar 2 cumulative total
The daily tests reported today have been added to this revised total rather than the total reported yesterday, so the cumulative total today is 2,949 higher than if you added the daily tests to yesterday’s total.

For pillar 2, the cumulative number of in-person tests today is 229 lower than if you added the daily tests to yesterday’s total, and the cumulative number of delivery route tests is 714 higher".

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

As I say, it's all there, nothing hidden or untoward - just that pillar 2 data is subject to change on a daily basis, based on information received and collated together - which presumably leads to the delays such as happened for Leicester.

I could also rip a big hole in your rant about deaths (based again on your political bias/hatred) if I wished to but I'd just be wasting my breath as you won't be reasoned with and you utterly refuse to be seen to be wrong about anything.

We could only do what we could based on the knowledge and resources we had at the time.  We also have to take into account issues such as poverty/housing/multi-generations, BAME, health of the population, population density, London being a world transport hub, etc, etc, etc.

If we could go back and do it again no doubt a number of things would have been done differently but we are all wiser after the event than before it.

I still say though that if Leicester had 950 positive results in the last two weeks (above those they already knew about), then a number of them would have required hospitalisation and surely that must been a significant rise and what they had been experiencing from the start of June.

Somebody somewhere should have been asking the question in Leicester why are the numbers going up and not down!

Fwiw a thought crossed my mind some weeks back when many people were repatriated from India, who faced no tests or quarantine period (apart from doing it voluntary at home) when they returned to this country.

Checking back now these flights brought home 16,500 people around about the beginning to mid May

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-more-flights-to-bring-stranded-brits-home-from-india

Also the same/similar happened from Pakistan -

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/pakistan/return-to-the-uk

From mid May to the beginning of June is just two weeks - and Leicester's problems started around about that time onwards.

From the article in The Mail I linked to above I read this -

A councillor representing the area at the epicentre of Leicester’s coronavirus outbreak has criticised the Government for not acting quicker to tackle the increase in cases.

Councillor Rashmikant Joshi represents the North Evington ward, which has the highest number of cases in the city. Following a spike of 800-plus Covid-19 cases in Leicester since mid-June, North Evington accounts for almost 200 of them, according to the latest figures seen by Mr Joshi.

Almost 60% of North Evington’s population is of South Asian background, which Mr Joshi claims may account for the coronavirus increase in the area. North Evington is made up of tightly packed terraced homes and is the site of a number of religious places of worship and busy shops.

He said: ‘We have a lot of inter-generational households, where young people live with their grandparents. South Asians also tend to live in larger family groups, which increases the risk of infection.

‘Since the easing of the lockdown, a lot of youngsters have been going out more and not maintaining social distance. There’s a high chance that they came home and passed on the virus to elderly relatives.’

Mr Joshi, 62 maintained that health and economic factors could also have played a significant part in the coronavirus increase.

He said: ‘A lot of people in this community also have underlying health conditions, which makes them more vulnerable to coronavirus. They also work in low paid jobs and continued working throughout the lockdown and were going out more than people in other, more affluent areas.’

The councillor revealed that his wife and a number of his relatives had also contracted coronavirus over the past three months and that he had been in self-isolation on three separate occasions.

Mr Joshi added: ‘We still don’t know the exact reasons as to why North Evington and Leicester have had a high number of coronavirus cases. We have asked the Government for a fuller breakdown of the figures but have still not received them.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8473769/The-36-areas-England-Covid-19-cases-RISING.html

North Evington has a 68% ethnic Asian population as per the 2011 Census

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/uk/eastmidlands/wards/leicester/E05010469__north_evington/

All just a big coincidence?

Probably.

Just been reading this which I thought was relevant to the thread -

The east of the city appears to be the epicentre of this local outbreak. The area includes streets with tightly packed terraced housing, and has a high proportion of ethnic minority families where multi-generational living is more common.

...health officials on the ground in Leicester suggest there are other issues at play too. There seems to be signs of transmission in workplaces, suggesting social distancing guidelines are not been adhered to as well as they should, and also transient workers passing through.

In short, there is nothing necessarily unique to Leicester that could be pointed to a single stand-out cause.

What is certain is just having a little bit of the virus circulating would mean as restrictions eased and people began circulating more, the virus would have an opportunity to spread.

The more densely populated an area, the quicker and more likely that is to happen.

Cases are being seen now in other parts of the city, which is what has prompted ministers and local officials to take action.

It appears to be quite different to other local flare-ups that have happened so far. One in Weston-super-Mare was largely contained to the hospital, while another in Cleckheaton, which was linked to a meat-packing factory, does not seem to have spread across the community.

Should action have been taken sooner?
This is a key question - and one that is already being asked. Even at this early stage, it is clear to see the signs have been there for a few weeks at least.

Over the weekend the city mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, was saying the authorities there had only received limited data from the government and national testing system.

This goes to the heart of what many fear is a weakness in the system in England - the way the national test and trace system connects up with local teams.

The system, which got up and running at the end of May, relies on a national team of 25,000 call handlers to triage cases that test positive.

Complex cases involving schools, care homes and prisons for example, are automatically transferred down to local public health teams, involving councils and Public Health England.

But individuals are dealt with by the national team. They ask for information from them about their close contacts and ask them to isolate.

Comprehensive information about these cases is not passed down to councils - or at least not in the detail they would like. It's like "having one arm held behind your back in a fight" was how one director of public health described it to me, adding: "You are up against it from the start." Essentially it means they cannot monitor all local cases to see what patterns are emerging.

Another weakness of the system appears to be a lack of translation services. Baroness Dido Harding, the head of test and trace, has said this is being invested in.

More here -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53235709

I feel sorry for all the people who have booked Holidays to Leicester and now cant go there ( to Leicester ). It must be a great disappointment.
They will be hoping there is an Airbridge into it.

Seems Blackburn will be next.

Sluffy wrote:Is it any wonder then that 8 out of the top 10 cases per 100,000 population over the last seven day average are

Leicester
Blackburn
Oadby (Leicester suburb)
Rochdale
Bradford
Pendle
Luton
Kirklees (Huddersfield)

Coronavirus: Blackburn with Darwen 'overtaking Leicester for new cases'

Blackburn with Darwen is overtaking Leicester as England's coronavirus hotspot, according to official figures.

The Lancashire borough recorded the highest infection rate, with 79.2 cases per 100,000 people in the week up to 17 July, Public Health England said.

Cases have doubled in the past week, with 118 confirmed, compared with 63 in the previous week.

More here -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53470600

Is it any wonder though when things like this are allowed to happen?

Blackburn mosque closed as imam tests positive for coronavirus

AROUND 250 people who attended a funeral at a mosque are being asked to self-isolate after the imam tested positive for the coronavirus.

The Jamia Ghosia mosque, based on Chester Street in Blackburn, hosted a funeral on July 13 where in the region of 250 people turned-up – despite official government guidance stating a maximum of 30 people are allowed to attend such events.

On Sunday (July 19) an announcement made by the mosque said the building would be closed until further notice while a deep clean takes place.

Messages seen by the Lancashire Telegraph from bosses at the site to users of the mosque also urged those who attended the funeral to self-isolate for at least a week.

The message read: “Unfortunately our Imam who led the Janazah (funeral) prayer has been tested positive for COVID-19 and is recovering from the virus.

“There is a possibility that other attendees may also have been infected at the Janazah prayers.

“It is our legal obligation to strongly advise you to isolate yourself for seven days, or attend your local COVID-19 testing station for COVID-test.”

It adds, “Any future Janazah prayer will consist of 30 people only and all COVID-19 Janazah will NOT be allowed in the Mosque as we experienced this week, this must take place in the Blackburn Cemetery.”

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18593016.blackburn-mosque-closed-imam-tests-positive-coronavirus/

Anyone spot that it is the Mosque chasing people up to isolate and not the government site - I wonder why!

Sluffy wrote:

MODDED - DON'T EVER MAKE UP A BOARDERLINE RACIST COMMENT AND PUT IT AS A QUOTE OF MINE AGAIN

Think I covered this in post 121 of the "will we survive" thread, but to expand on the point, many British Asian communities have a deep distrust of "the authorities" after generations of systemic maltreatment and tend to communicate via the community leaders that they feel represent them.

wanderlust wrote:

Sluffy wrote:

MODDED - DON'T EVER MAKE UP A BOARDERLINE RACIST COMMENT AND PUT IT AS A QUOTE OF MINE AGAIN

Think I covered this in post 121 of the "will we survive" thread, but to expand on the point, many British Asian communities have a deep distrust of "the authorities" after generations of systemic maltreatment and tend to communicate via the community leaders that they feel represent them.

WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK YOU ARE???

Quote me by all means, post your opinion of what I've said - no problem with that but to make up something deliberately inflammatory and post it as a quote I've said is deliberately looking to be banned.

Fwiw the following is from the governments daily briefing site -



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

So the information isn't based on some random twitter account with some sort of racist agenda - he simply tabulates the actual released daily figures into a more user friendly form imo.

And secondly if the British Asian community have a deep distrust of the authorities after "generations of systemic maltreatment" etc, etc then why are many, many Asian community's having little to no major issues with new current infection cases???

Current seven day national average for new cases = 7.3 per 100,000

Wolverhampton - 5.7
Hounslow - 5.5
Slough - 5.4
Haringey - 5.2
Tower Hamlets - 4.1
Brent - 3.3
Croydon - 1.8


You're the one with some sort of an agenda here, not me.