Coronavirus - will we survive?

wanderlust wrote:Don't they have to do the quarantine in the UK when they get back? Providing they aren't flying with TUI who have cancelled flights as a result of the Government's shock announcement they should be fine re getting back.

I think UK employers have been put into a difficult position if returnees aren't able to work from home.  Do you sack them?

This arbitrary Government decision this will probably stop anyone booking a holiday anywhere as Spain has lower deaths than the UK - although that may be because they do more testing than we do - and the recent upsurge is the north east above Barcelona rather than the costas - so nobody can have confidence that they won't do the same for any destination.

Think you are getting your wires crossed a bit, as it's more to do with the virus in the community than anything to do with death rates???

I read somewhere on the BBC some days back that the rate per 100,000 population was 28 and on an upwards trend - ours currently is just under 8.

To put that into some context 28 per 100,000 would put it on the list of authorities in around 11th place (out of 315) and in front of the likes of Luton and Oxford.

I think the fear is that the virus might already have started to have been spreading in the Costas (and we won't find out about it for at least a week or more before people start to fall ill) and that our party loving youngsters may be catching it and bringing it back with them.

Can anyone really see all these youngsters staying in for two weeks in isolation when they get back - me neither - hence the urgent action taken I suspect.

Nobody will get sacked for having to spend two weeks off work as it wasn't their fault but they may well not be paid for those two weeks.

Sluffy wrote:

Boggersbelief wrote:Covid-19 cases are increasing 10 fold in the Asian/Muslim community.

I'd be interested to see the facts if they are.

It's fairly obvious that most of the areas that currently have the new cases over the last seven day average have a large Asian community within them

1 Blackburn - 87 cases per 100,000
2 Oadby (Leicester suburb) - 73
3 Leicester - 69
4 Hyndburn (Accrington) - 55
5 Rochdale - 49
6 Pendle - 43
7 Bradford - 42
8 Eden (Lake District) - 40 (Not sure what the issue is here - local spike perhaps - such as farm or a warehouse?)
9 Oldham - 38
10 Sandwell (West Brom) - 31
11 Luton - 29
12 Trafford (Stretford) - 26
13 Kirklees (Huddersfield) - 26
14 Calderdale (Halifax) - 25
15 Northampton - 23

Next is Eastbourne, Peterborough then Corby.

Is it any wonder???

That looks like a ghost town compared to the pubs on a Saturday night since they re-opened. And then there's this sort of nonsense...

Not sure what point you are trying to make but it comes across as racist bigotry.

My mate's been in London for the last couple of months on a contract to erect temporary mortuaries for the anticipated next wave. As far as I can gather they consist of unused warehouses with a load of stud walling. When pressed he said he wasn't supposed to talk about it - not sure why.

Its so the insecure people of this nation don't get upset. If they did know, it would probably bring home the situation were in, especially  for the thick bastards who remain oblivious.

wanderlust wrote:

That looks like a ghost town compared to the pubs on a Saturday night since they re-opened. And then there's this sort of nonsense...

Not sure what point you are trying to make but it comes across as racist bigotry.

Well for a start they are not only the elected leaders of their council but also prominent members of the Asian community.

Luton has a diverse ethnic mix, with a significant population of Asian descent, mainly Pakistani 29,353 (14.4%) and Bangladeshi 13,606 (6.7%).[59] The latter two also make up most of the Muslim religious population in Luton, which is the third highest for a town or city in England by proportion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luton#Ethnicity

What are the risks of Covid to Asians?

Why are more people from BAME backgrounds dying from coronavirus?



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219070

As for your racist bigotry remark aimed at me, if I am then I must hide it very well as at one time I worked in a group were I was the only white person in it for eight years and on another occasion I was the only white person invited to a full Muslim wedding (that of my best mate) that continued over three days!

I'm not stupid and I know your behaviour on here to well to know that you've deliberately posted what you have as your small minded and petty attempt to get your own back at me because I've previously rebuked you over the homophobic post you made.

So do jog on.

gloswhite wrote:Its so the insecure people of this nation don't get upset. If they did know, it would probably bring home the situation were in, especially  for the thick bastards who remain oblivious.

Another round of panic buying and hoarding?
The further rise of USA style conspiracy theory leading to attacks on mask wearers?

I guess that in this day and age the truth isn't readily accepted as reasons to believe have been completely undermined.

Although it would be ironic if this Government, who are only in power because they conned the people in the first place, are not believed.

wanderlust wrote:

gloswhite wrote:Its so the insecure people of this nation don't get upset. If they did know, it would probably bring home the situation were in, especially  for the thick bastards who remain oblivious.

Another round of panic buying and hoarding?
The further rise of USA style conspiracy theory leading to attacks on mask wearers?

I guess that in this day and age the truth isn't readily accepted as reasons to believe have been completely undermined.

Although it would be ironic if this Government, who are only in power because they conned the people in the first place, are not believed.

I see you've been reading and more to the point believing, social media again!

The Conservatives win in the last General Election had everything to do with Labour committing political suicide under Corbyn and very little to do with whatever it is you think they 'conned' people with?

The facts simply are that the Conservative vote share was more or less identical to that of the 2017 GE and a massive 1 in 5 (20%) of Labour voters from 2017 voting for some other party other than Labour just two years later!!!

Change in vote share
Party 2017 2019 Change
Conservative Party 42.4% 43.6% +1.2
Labour Party      40.0% 32.1% −7.8
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 11.5% +4.2
Scottish National 3.0% 3.9% +0.9
Green Party        1.6% 2.7% +1.1
Brexit Party       N/A 2.0% +2.0
Other(s)                5.6% 4.1% -1.5
Total %                100.0 100.0 –

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

The government might well be unpopular but they were, by a distance, the 'least' unpopular of the two realistic choices people had to vote for - and that was because of even lifelong Labour voters found Corbyn and his policies to be totally unbelievable!

I don't know why you go to so much trouble to point out that the Tories won and Labour shot themselves in the foot. We know. We were there.
But it is my personal belief based on the Governments own figures, the finally released Russia report, the mass sacking of dissenters, the testimony of those who were present during the Leave campaign and a wide range of other published reputable sources that they were elected in 2019 on a "Get Brexit Done" platform which tapped into post-referendum anxiety on both sides that split the Labour vote and attracted both leave and remain voters who were fed up with the Brexit autopsy. And it really was a single issue election.
Our undemocratic first past the post electoral system ensured that without an effective opposition there was never going to be any other winner who could then plough on with their minority mandate.

I would add that a lot of folk who defected to the Tories in order to - in their minds- put an end to the Brexit debacle, actually believed the could negotiate a deal beneficial to Britain. Presumably they managed to suspend their mistrust of Boris and his cronies in some sort of blind hope that it wasn't just smoke, mirrors and bluster.

We know how well that's going - as reflected in the bookie's odds on a Labour win in the next election - and to get a working majority - which over the last few months have come in from absolutely nowhere to evens on William Hill and 23/20 on most others. Only one bookie has them at 6/5 if you fancy a flutter?

wanderlust wrote:I don't know why you go to so much trouble to point out that the Tories won and Labour shot themselves in the foot. We know. We were there.
But it is my personal belief based on the Governments own figures, the finally released Russia report, the mass sacking of dissenters, the testimony of those who were present during the Leave campaign and a wide range of other published reputable sources that they were elected in 2019 on a "Get Brexit Done" platform which tapped into post-referendum anxiety on both sides that split the Labour vote and attracted both leave and remain voters who were fed up with the Brexit autopsy. And it really was a single issue election.
Our undemocratic first past the post electoral system ensured that without an effective opposition there was never going to be any other winner who could then plough on with their minority mandate.

I would add that a lot of folk who defected to the Tories in order to - in their minds- put an end to the Brexit debacle, actually believed the could negotiate a deal beneficial to Britain. Presumably they managed to suspend their mistrust of Boris and his cronies in some sort of blind hope that it wasn't just smoke, mirrors and bluster.

We know how well that's going - as reflected in the bookie's odds on a Labour win in the next election - and to get a working majority - which over the last few months have come in from absolutely nowhere to evens on William Hill and 23/20 on most others. Only one bookie has them at 6/5 if you fancy a flutter?

A weeks a long time in politics they say, a lot can happen between now and 2024.

As you know people voted for Brexit in the referendum - you did yourself.

Since then the country has had three more national votes, the GE in 2017, and the Euro's (which the Brexit party easily won) and the GE where Labour imploded.

At no time anybody said any other than 'Brexit means Brexit' the votes were not conditional on what terms on our exit with the EU would take and a 'hard' Brexit was always an option on the table.

You seem to have it fixed in your mind that you've been cheated in some way because the Brexit you wanted has not materialised and therefore that must be someone else's fault.

It isn't.

In simple terms we had a divorce and whilst you might have thought we would still keep the house, the car and your business (controls on immigration, applying our own laws and still having all the benefits from the EU as we have had) the reality is completely different and her lawyers have done their best for the ex and quite rightly so.

We've made our bed, nobody in the EU wanted us to leave but we voted to do so and quite frankly have voted three more times since then to do so as well.

Although our bed is made there is still some time before we have to lay in it and there may yet be some progress with the negotiations to everyone's mutual benefit but if whether it ends up to be a comfy bed or a rock hard one, it is the only bed we have to sleep in and we simply have to come to terms with that.

It seems very unlikely with an 80 seat majority, despite his cock ups.

Cajunboy wrote:It seems very unlikely with an 80 seat majority, despite his cock ups.

It is very unlikely - 2/1 means they're suggesting there's a one in three chance of it happening. (technically slightly more than that as they have a built in margin)
The significant bit is the change in odds as not so long ago it was a one in thirteen chance so it's indicative of the direction of travel.

Just look on this as an early mid-term slump in popularity, which is quite common. 

I'm struggling to understand why so many of us are dying despite allegedly having a lower infection rate than the rest of the EU. Why? Do Brits die more easily than other europeans?

article in the London economic writes:

"despite the UK’s comparatively low rate of infection, its death rate remains persistently high. On Saturday, Britain reported 61 deaths from the Covid-19 – compared to 45 across the entire EU.
Stats from John Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracking project reveal that Britain has suffered 825 deaths in the last two weeks. 
The EU27 as a whole has recorded 1,044 deaths over the past two weeks. Spain has seen just 23 deaths in that time, whereas Belgium has seen 45, Croatia has suffered 20 and Luxembourg just two.
Johnson is arguably right to be cautious, given that deaths from Covid-19 tend to lag behind infections. Nonetheless, he has left himself open to accusations of hypocrisy. 
The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, pointed out that Britain arguably has a worse grip of the coronavirus than his own country.
He pointed out that the upsurge in coronavirus cases is focused in two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, adding: “In most of Spain, the incidence is very much inferior to even the numbers registered in the United Kingdom.”
So what's going wrong? 
Is our testing and track and trace so poor that we don't know the real infection rate?
Are our treatment services for patients inferior?
Are we worse than say Rumania at recording deaths and suddenly a bunch of deaths have only just been noted in the last fortnight?
Is the Government suppressing the true story?
Whatever it is, there's something seriously wrong.

Had a walk into Birchwood today, for the first time in weeks, and I have to say it was pretty dead. A lot of the shops are still closed, and apart from ASDA and Home Bargains, the other open shops are doing very little business.
I only passed three people going too and from the centre, and there's a general feeling of still being in lockdown.
I've ordered my Wanderers face covering.

wanderlust wrote:I'm struggling to understand why so many of us are dying despite allegedly having a lower infection rate than the rest of the EU. Why? Do Brits die more easily than other europeans?

article in the London economic writes:

"despite the UK’s comparatively low rate of infection, its death rate remains persistently high. On Saturday, Britain reported 61 deaths from the Covid-19 – compared to 45 across the entire EU.
Stats from John Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracking project reveal that Britain has suffered 825 deaths in the last two weeks. 
The EU27 as a whole has recorded 1,044 deaths over the past two weeks. Spain has seen just 23 deaths in that time, whereas Belgium has seen 45, Croatia has suffered 20 and Luxembourg just two.
Johnson is arguably right to be cautious, given that deaths from Covid-19 tend to lag behind infections. Nonetheless, he has left himself open to accusations of hypocrisy. 
The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, pointed out that Britain arguably has a worse grip of the coronavirus than his own country.
He pointed out that the upsurge in coronavirus cases is focused in two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, adding: “In most of Spain, the incidence is very much inferior to even the numbers registered in the United Kingdom.”
So what's going wrong? 
Is our testing and track and trace so poor that we don't know the real infection rate?
Are our treatment services for patients inferior?
Are we worse than say Rumania at recording deaths and suddenly a bunch of deaths have only just been noted in the last fortnight?
Is the Government suppressing the true story?
Whatever it is, there's something seriously wrong.

I wrote about this recently -

https://forum.boltonnuts.co.uk/t21160p120-coronavirus-will-we-survive#408493

The vast majority of the deaths are being recorded outside hospitals.

Anybody in the community who is ill enough to end up dying with Covid would have phoned up for an ambulance and be treated/die there, so I reasoned the bulk of the deaths most be from care homes and hospices.

As there is sufficient capacity in hospitals to deal with Covid up to know, then they aren't shipping terminal cases out to hospices to die, so the dead most be occurring in end of life people.

If you die from other natural causes but have Covid in your system when tested at death you are counted as a Covid death.

What I'm guessing might be happening with the stats you printed is that country's are reporting deaths in different ways to each other - comparing apples with oranges.

If you just compared reported hospital deaths - there were just 16 in the whole of the UK when I posted what I did in the link above - yet we reported 278 in total from ALL settings.

Maybe other country's are just reporting deaths through Covid from hospitals - if so we are more than on a par with them.

And why would you even think to say that the government is 'suppressing the true story' when it's recording and reporting more deaths than everyone else!!!!

Surely if they were trying to do that they would be reporting a vastly lower figure wouldn't you think???

I'm sure you don't think before you post sometimes in your haste to have a pop at the government all the time.

Todays deaths -

Hospitals - 19 for England, Wales and Scotland

14:49

Further 19 people die across England and Wales
A further 19 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in England and Wales, the latest figures show.

There were 14 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours by NHS England, taking the total who have died in hospital from the virus to 29,317. Nine of the deaths were recorded in the Midlands.

In Wales, there were five further deaths, according to Public Health Wales, taking the total there to 1,554.

Scotland recorded no new deaths for the 13th day in a row, while Northern Ireland also recorded no deaths from the virus.

The UK figures will be published separately and differ due to recording over a different time period and based on different criteria.

Overall reported deaths - 83

16:26
Latest UK figures show 83 more Covid-19 related deaths
A further 83 people have died from Covid-19 associated deaths in the UK, according to government figures.

It takes the total deaths associated with the pandemic to 45,961.

There have been 763 more lab-confirmed cases across the UK, taking the total number of cases to 301,455.

These figures use data from Public Health England, which is currently reviewing its methodology after it was found to be including people who tested positive months before they died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53577222

So if there are 83 deaths reported and only 19 from hospitals, then 64 deaths must have occurred somewhere else, which presumably have been from care homes and hospices and probably happened a few days back and only discovered as Corvid when tested after death - and may well not have been the actual cause of death.

That's my reasoning anyway.

Sluffy wrote:Todays deaths -

Hospitals - 19 for England, Wales and Scotland

14:49

Further 19 people die across England and Wales
A further 19 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in England and Wales, the latest figures show.

There were 14 deaths recorded in the past 24 hours by NHS England, taking the total who have died in hospital from the virus to 29,317. Nine of the deaths were recorded in the Midlands.

In Wales, there were five further deaths, according to Public Health Wales, taking the total there to 1,554.

Scotland recorded no new deaths for the 13th day in a row, while Northern Ireland also recorded no deaths from the virus.

The UK figures will be published separately and differ due to recording over a different time period and based on different criteria.

Overall reported deaths - 83

16:26
Latest UK figures show 83 more Covid-19 related deaths
A further 83 people have died from Covid-19 associated deaths in the UK, according to government figures.

It takes the total deaths associated with the pandemic to 45,961.

There have been 763 more lab-confirmed cases across the UK, taking the total number of cases to 301,455.

These figures use data from Public Health England, which is currently reviewing its methodology after it was found to be including people who tested positive months before they died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53577222

So if there are 83 deaths reported and only 19 from hospitals, then 64 deaths must have occurred somewhere else, which presumably have been from care homes and hospices and probably happened a few days back and only discovered as Corvid when tested after death - and may well not have been the actual cause of death.

That's my reasoning anyway.

Interesting theory although it's predicated on figures which very few people have any faith in - especially as the numbers conflict with the government's own "excess deaths" figure which puts covid-related deaths at over 60k so far.

Registered deaths are undeniable, government spin on the other hand.....

I found myself getting pissed off with a bloke at the petrol station today who waltzed in with his young daughter without wearing a face mask. The signs were clear, every other customer was covered up but the staff seemed unprepared to ask him to leave - presumably because he'd already filled his car with petrol? Or that they were kids and he was a man?
I just think it's ridiculous that the government hands responsibility for enforcement of the "guidelines" (NB guidelines not laws!) to retail staff. 

That chimes with the new survey cited by Together (NHS,employers etc) that suggests the upturn in community unity experienced during lockdown is starting to fray at the edges again. I for one am not happy about reckless idiots jeopardising lives.