Coronavirus - will we survive?

Coronavirus: Lockdown measures reintroduced in Preston

Lockdown measures are being reintroduced in Preston from midnight after a rise in Covid-19 cases.

Residents in the Lancashire city are facing stricter restrictions, which include banning separate households from meeting each other at home.

The council had already asked residents to follow extra precautions in a bid to halt the spread of the virus.

This brings Preston in line with measures in east Lancashire, Greater Manchester and parts of west Yorkshire.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has confirmed the restrictions in these areas will remain in place "as the data does not yet show a decrease in the transmission of this terrible virus".

Any changes to the measures will be announced by 14 August following a review next week, he added.

He said the decision to extend the restrictions to Preston was "at the request of the local area".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53678427

Coronavirus: England death count review reduces UK toll by 5,000

A review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000, to 41,329, the government has announced.

The recalculation is based on a new definition of who has died from Covid.

Previously, people in England who died at any point following a positive test, regardless of cause, were counted in the figures.

But there will now be a cut-off of 28 days, providing a more accurate picture of the epidemic.

This brings England's measure in line with the other UK nations.

New counting method

The new methodology for counting deaths means the total number of people who have died from Covid-19 comes down from 46,706 to 41,329 - a reduction of 12%.

And figures for deaths in England for the most recent week of data - 18 to 24 July - will drop by 75%, from 442 to 111.

Prof John Newton, director of health improvement at Public Health England, said: "The way we count deaths in people with Covid-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic."

But he said the new methods of calculating deaths from the virus would give "crucial information about both recent trends and overall mortality burden due to Covid-19".

The health secretary in England, Matt Hancock, called for a review into the way deaths from coronavirus were calculated in July.

It followed concerns raised by Oxford scientists that this was being carried out differently across the four nations of the UK.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the count only included people who died within four weeks of a positive test.

Someone who stays in intensive care with Covid-19 for five weeks and dies would not be counted as a coronavirus death, for example.

In England, there was no time limit. Someone who recovered from Covid-19 in March and died in a car crash in July would be counted as a coronavirus death.

Now the UK's four chief medical officers have decided to use a single, consistent measure and publish the number of deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test confirmed in a lab, every day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

Sluffy wrote:In England, there was no time limit. Someone who recovered from Covid-19 in March and died in a car crash in July would be counted as a coronavirus death.

That is absolutely ridiculous. Where has the common sense gone?

Natasha Whittam wrote:

That is absolutely ridiculous. Where has the common sense gone?

Looking at the government's  "excess death" figures published by the Office of National Statistics.

Basically they say there's a shedload more deaths above those that have occurred during the same time period in the last 10 years. A shedload more than have been announced.

What caused them? is the question. A sudden upsurge of 70.000 folk being attacked by rabid camels? Perhaps.

I can see the conspiracy theorists cranking up their campaign after reading that!

Some good news?

Coronavirus cases stable across most of England

Coronavirus cases across England appear to be levelling off, despite flare-ups in local hotspots, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An estimated 1 in 1,900, or 28,300 people in England currently have the virus.

The ONS said evidence of a "small increase" people testing positive in July has now stabilised.

It has been regularly testing people in private households since April.

The ONS survey provides a consistent picture of what's been happening, because it regularly tests a large group of people - whether they have symptoms or not.

That means any changes are down to fewer or more infections, not just because more testing is taking place.

In areas where there have been spikes, more testing takes place.

Looking at the government's figures, this can make it look like cases are rising, when in fact more are simply being uncovered.

On the other hand, the relatively small number of people involved in the survey means the conclusions are based on 58 positive tests out of 122,000 swabs in the past six weeks.

But the ONS takes this uncertainty into account and even, with a margin of error, believes cases are levelling off.

Symptom check
The Covid Symptom Study app run by company ZOE and researchers at King's College London shows a similar picture.

It estimates 22,702 people currently have symptomatic Covid in the UK.

Symptom study figures. which are slightly more up to date than ONS figures, also show a rise in cases in July which then tailed off and have since fallen.

The government's figures on "confirmed cases" - which just look at positive tests, but don't adjust for more tests being done - look like cases are rising.

But there hasn't, yet, been a corresponding rise in hospitalisations or deaths.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53781140

Posted at 14:51
UK R number remains 0.8-1.0

The UK's estimated R number is unchanged at 0.8 to 1.0, according to the government.

The R number - the rate at which a person with the virus passes it on to another person - has been a key measure by which ministers have rated the UK's ability to ease lockdown restrictions.

Keeping it below 1 means infections steadily decrease.

The UK's latest growth rate range is -4% to -1% per day.

Speaking earlier, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said there was only so much "R budget" for opening up society without risking the number rising above 1.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53775682



I'm not totally convinced myself though.

What the reports are saying in a nutshell is that generally speaking the virus isn't spreading faster than it has been doing recently.

Without question more people have caught the virus but that's been confined within areas rather than across the country.

The daily figures (which for the second time this week were not published due to some reporting issue (?)) had been showing a general increase across a lot of the country but with a worrying growth in some specific areas - Slough for instance was 2 per 100,000 people on a seven day average just three weeks ago, 23rd July and ranked 240 out of 315 in the country but on the last known daily figures available (Monday 10th) had jumped over 200 places to 28th place with 18.1 per 100,000 and there have been 13 other positives to be added for Tuesday and Wednesday (there were only 3 in total for the whole week on the 23rd July!) and Thursday total was not announced and we await todays. Slough is a family and friends transmission.

Northampton however have had 300 positives from a workplace spread in the last few days -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233

Like it or not people do travel from lockdown areas across the country and I think it is inevitable that the virus will continue to be spread into areas that have up to now been relatively free of the virus.

I imagine if it does kick off again in London then more stringent controls will be enacted.

I guess the next hurdle to be faced soon though is kids going back to school - and how that will effect transmissions.

It makes you despair at times -

A month on since tighter restrictions were introduced in Blackburn with Darwen, compared with most of the rest of England, the area still has one of the highest rates of new cases of coronavirus.

In the week to 12 August there were 141 new cases recorded, 20 more than the week before.

Where are they all coming from seeing they've been in lockdown a month and this shouldn't be happening?

Coronavirus: Blackburn wedding party of 100 broken up by police



Police said the event at Waheed's Buffet and Banqueting Hall in Randal Street was a "significant breach" of restrictions putting people "at risk".

The gathering on Sunday was dispersed and no further action was taken.

Lancashire Police's Deputy Chief Constable Terry Woods said there were between 100 and 120 people at the venue.

He said: "The vast bulk of those people were asked to leave, they were very compliant, but in effect that wedding reception was closed down and what remained was a small number of people

"Today future action is going to be considered with the local authority to see what we can do with that premises to stop it happening again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53787323


The venue knew what they were doing, the guests knew what they were doing, they must even know it is their own community that is the one mostly effected and passing on the virus - and STILL they went ahead.

Wonder how many 'family and friends' have travelled from outside the lockdown area and bring the virus back to their own communities elsewhere?

Remember this was done a MONTH INTO LOCKDOWN!

No excuse is there?

It may not be PC to say this but it does seem to be the Muslim population that don't follow the regulations i'm afraid which i suppose explains why places like Blackburn and Oldham have more cases.

Norpig wrote:It may not be PC to say this but it does seem to be the Muslim population that don't follow the regulations i'm afraid which i suppose explains why places like Blackburn and Oldham have more cases.

Fair point, given the area, but I didn't see many of them crowding the beaches, pubs.

I see a lot of apathy especially from the young at the moment and thats all races, colours etc. They don't seem to think it's an issue not wearing a mask and going out in groups. They just don't think it's going to affect them which if your younger it may not but they could pass it on to older member of their own families. 

Preston's lockdown phrase is don't kill Granny which is aimed at the young but don't know how successful it's been yet?

I was talking to a few teenagers yesterday, and their attitude appalled me. They're so used to having what they want, when they want it, and see any restrictive measure as an affront to their human rights.
One of them actually said, "it's like living in Nazi Germany".
You're wasting your time even trying to engage with that kind of idiocy.

boltonbonce wrote:

Norpig wrote:It may not be PC to say this but it does seem to be the Muslim population that don't follow the regulations i'm afraid which i suppose explains why places like Blackburn and Oldham have more cases.

Fair point, given the area, but I didn't see many of them crowding the beaches, pubs.

Depends where you choose to look I suppose.

Sadly for this family I bet they wished they'd stayed at home in lockdown than driving across the Pennies for a day at the beach?

Bodies found in Lancashire sea search for missing Dewsbury brothers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53801619

Kirklees - 166 new cases in last 7 days - under lockdown for a month currently 37.8 cases per 100,000 population per seven day average, ranked 12th highest in the country.

Fwiw, the decision to close boarders to country's such as Spain and France is when cases reach 20 cases per 100,000.

Crikey, I'm beginning to wonder if it's worth renewing my ST.

boltonbonce wrote:Crikey, I'm beginning to wonder if it's worth renewing my ST.

If you are of a certain age/health it truly is a worry.

Fwiw Bolton is currently 21st on the list at 28.0 per 100,000 and Warrington (I think that's where you come under?) is 63rd at 12.4

Spain, who are now starting to get over 7,500 new cases per day - on par with when they had their draconian lockdown are currently doing this!

Wonder how many pick up the virus after that!?

(For comparison we are averaging 1,000 new cases per day).







https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

Australia are close to having a vaccine available and are talking about making it mandatory to have one.

That will go down well with the conspiracy theorists who think Bill Gates is the Antichrist and wants to control us all with an implanted microchip 

There are a lot of bulls in Norfolk. And some other odd things.

I doubt anybody other than me is interested but something is clearly happening in terms of new cases in Windsor an Maidenhead.

Now we are talking about where the Queen lives, Eton School, the Thames rolling through Royal Berkshire countryside, Royal Ascot where the Derby is run (I went watching it once but it wasn't my thing) and even home to people like Gary Linaker!

It's jumped up to 25th place (out of 315) on a seven day rolling average ahead of such places as Preston 26th, Bolton 35th, Slough 62nd.

The new cases are being reported daily over the last week as 4,4,3,5,4,3 and 10 today - so not as though it is a spike from a factory unit or something and it isn't an area where there is a large Asian community spreading it in family units.

I'm wondering if perhaps an issue with the army barracks in Windsor perhaps, I can see that being kept out of the papers if there is - but something is defiantly happening - as recently as last month they were hardly getting any positives at all and were down in 273rd place!

Keep safe anybody visiting the area.

Dammit, they'll have to put my knighthood on hold I suppose