Coronavirus - will we survive?

Glad to hear you are all out of isolation, I hope you all stay fit and well now.

I spent 48 hours in Blackpool Victoria about ten days a ago for all the fun of a colonoscopy. I'm nearing the end of 14 days of isolation, which is no big deal for me as I've been shielding for about 16months apart from hospital visits and picnics in the car with my wife.

The end of all this still seems a long way away.

Keep your pecker up Cajun, we'll get there. Not long now.

Don't be silly.

Norpig wrote:The Norpig family are now out of isolation thank God! Not been on much this last couple of weeks as work has been horrendous. They had me working from home last week and actually sent home my pc from work to use at home!

We were meant to be going to Prestatyn next Monday but cancelled it as Haven are only letting people book the evening entertainment venue for 1 night of your 7 day stay! So fed up of covid now!

Good to have you back Norpig. Sorry to hear about your holiday.

You've missed nowt on here as it's been dead, in fact a new record was created one day this week when there was only ONE post in a 24 hour period.

You'll be pleased to know it's likely Bob will soon be posting more often as his time on The Wanderer appears to be coming to an end.

Cajunboy wrote:Glad to hear you are all out of isolation, I hope you all stay fit and well now.

I spent 48 hours in Blackpool Victoria about ten days a ago for all the fun of a colonoscopy. I'm nearing the end of 14 days of isolation, which is no big deal for me as I've been shielding for about 16months apart from hospital visits and picnics in the car with my wife.

The end of all this still seems a long way away.

Don't know what to say Cajun, but that sounds pretty shitty. I agree the end seems an awful long way off, I can see nothing but disaster on the horizon.

Cajunboy wrote:Don't be silly.

Pecker problems, can't be fun 

Yes, pleased you and your family have come through it Norpig, yes sorry to hear how life has been for you Cajun and yes I think we are still far from the end Natasha (and yes it has been deathly quite on here recently).

The two things that intrigue me at the moment with Covid are the recent u-turn on France and the daily number of positive cases.

The France u-turn (if I understand it correctly?) is because of the fear of importing the South Africa/beat variant.

Now my understanding is that the vaccines work well against all the variants we've be told about so far, and as far as I can understand it the Indian/Delta variant is a faster spreader than the South African version.

So if we already have the 'worst' of the two variants anyway then why be particularly keen to keep the other out?

There's something I'm clearly not understanding about this?

As for the number of positive cases, it isn't that people are catching the virus that is my particular concern but more to do with how they know it is that high (or so few) - depending on how you look at that number?

What I mean is I can imagine people ill with the virus will be known about and people who have the test done in centres or by surge testing in the community will also be known about but how many people do the home testing and how many of them even if they are shown to be positive would bother to phone that information in?

Many round my way have never been arsed about following any of the rules so I'd be amazed if many have been doing the home testing and then reporting they had caught it!

I just can't see the number being true as such.

I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.

And if all the rules are scrapped on Monday, then what exactly is the point to continue to surge test any future area?  We've seem to have hit a brick wall at around 10% of the population not intending to get a jab (let alone both of them) and many of them seem to be in the 18 to 25 age group (largely males!) who are most likely to be the nobheads most likely to continue to catch it and spread it.

My view fwiw, until this hardcore of the 10% of the population in the UK go through giving the virus to each other and building up immunity to it in that way then not much will change anytime soon for the folk like Cajun who has had to lock himself away for his own safety for the best part of the last two years.

And fwiw, we may have to go through all this again each and every year as the virus mutates and we have to get our booster jabs - and the 10% of the population again can't be arsed getting one this time either!

I think there is a little bit of naivety if folk think all this will be over in time for Christmas!

Hope I'm wrong though.

Sluffy wrote:Yes, pleased you and your family have come through it Norpig, yes sorry to hear how life has been for you Cajun and yes I think we are still far from the end Natasha (and yes it has been deathly quite on here recently).

I don't want it to be the end. Hopefully things will pick up when the new season gets going. I was going to do the 'Betting Shop' but not sure there are going to be enough punters.

Sluffy wrote:I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.

I'm guessing, but I'd be surprised if a good number of those 50,000 aren't school kids where most positive tests will be recorded.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

Sluffy wrote:I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.

I'm guessing, but I'd be surprised if a good number of those 50,000 aren't school kids where most positive tests will be recorded.

Yes I thought that may well have something to do with it but I didn't know what the process was?

I thought when they started to first test kids they did so in school but that changed to mums and dads doing them at home with the flow kits?

If so how many of them now even give flow tests to the kids and if so how many phone the results in and get them properly tested?

If it is from school testings the number will soon massively drop as the kids finish for the summer break.

Presumably the kids won't need testing either at home or school when they go back from Monday onwards?

Either way the number that really matters is the number of people in hospital because of Covid.  (Well the number that matters for those who are probably not going to die if they catch it - unlike some!).

Fwiw as at the 15th June there were 1,229 in hospital (10,507 new cases reported) and at the 15th July (being the most up to date record) 3,964.

On the 15th July there were a 48,553 positive new cases reported - the last, nearest total to that occurred on the 12th January (a week or so after the peak of the last wave) when 49,374 positive new cases were reported - so matching the two dates as a 'like for like' comparison, the total of people in hospital for that date was 36,981.

So although the number of new cases went up five fold in a month 10,507 to 48,553, the number of people in hospital only went up three fold 1,229 to 3,964 - and if you compared the 3,964 in hospital based on the 48,553 new cases on the most recent date we have details for (15th July), then that is something like ten fold LESS than the last comparable date (12th Jan) when 36,981 were in hospital from 49,374 reported new cases that day.

I'm not claiming this to be scientific analysis from me but on the face of it at least the vaccine seems to have had a significant effect on keeping hospitalisation down.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

However the government site shows that 88% of the population (I don't know if the includes or excludes kids under 18 years of age?) amounting to 46.35m people have had their first jab - so that means the population total the government is working to is 52,670,00 or there about - meaning there are something like 6 million who have had no jab at all.

From what I can tell, the Office of National Statistics state the UK population mid 2019 to be 66.8m

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/january2021

So it looks to me that kids are not counted in the jabs totals and in fact there is something like 20,000,000 (66.8m - 46.35m) still able to catch and pass on Covid.

The more I think about this the more I don't think this will be over for years to come yet unfortunately and as always the old and weak will have to suffer the brunt of it.

Stay safe everyone.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

Good to have you back Norpig. Sorry to hear about your holiday.

You've missed nowt on here as it's been dead, in fact a new record was created one day this week when there was only ONE post in a 24 hour period.

You'll be pleased to know it's likely Bob will soon be posting more often as his time on The Wanderer appears to be coming to an end.

 There's a few TWE*PS sufferers on there too, Nat. You could call it The Wanderer variant but there's still no vaccine for it yet.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

I don't want it to be the end. Hopefully things will pick up when the new season gets going. I was going to do the 'Betting Shop' but not sure there are going to be enough punters.

I'm back and will post when i can but work is a bastard at the moment and my skiving time has massively reduced 

Please do the betting shop again Nat and i'll do the last man standing again.

Norpig wrote:Please do the betting shop again Nat and i'll do the last man standing again.

I hope you've spent your time in isolation improving your maths.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

I hope you've spent your time in isolation improving your maths.

 Nope 

Perhaps the great broadcaster Alastair Cook had it right, many years ago, when he said,

'In the best of times, our days are numbered anyway. So it would be a crime against nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were designed in the first place: the opportunity to do good work, to enjoy friends, to fall in love, to hit a ball, and to bounce a baby'.

gloswhite wrote:
Pecker problems, can't be fun 

LOL.

Thanks, that made me laugh.

boltonbonce wrote:Perhaps the great broadcaster Alastair Cook had it right, many years ago, when he said,

'In the best of times, our days are numbered anyway. So it would be a crime against nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were designed in the first place: the opportunity to do good work, to enjoy friends, to fall in love, to hit a ball, and to bounce a baby'.

I've just been arrested for bouncing a baby in Cleveleys.

Stupid kid kept screaming at me.

Look out for for me on News North West.

Cajunboy wrote:
I've just been arrested for bouncing a baby in Cleveleys.

Stupid kid kept screaming at me.

Look out for for me on News North West.

Bad move. You should know by now that babies don't bounce. The do go well on a highly polished floor. Excellent for baby bowls.
Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.

boltonbonce wrote:Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.

Great film if you haven't seen it before.

Can't say I will like the documentary tonight though...

boltonbonce wrote:
Bad move. You should know by now that babies don't bounce. The do go well on a highly polished floor. Excellent for baby bowls.
Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.

Yes I will, I've just been reading about the Panorama prog tonight on the BBC home page.