How is the Tory government doing?

okocha wrote:Ominous and suspicious wording in Boris' response to questions about the Cabinet Secretary's investigation into illegal "gatherings" within No.10 last Christmas. 

Just how independent and impartial can this investigation actually be when Boris is able to say that the Cabinet Minister will report back the findings "as soon as we reasonably can"??

Reeks of collusion by a cornered rat.

I believe he means 'we' as the Cabinet Office rather than 'we' as him and the Cabinet Secretary cooking something up between them.

okocha wrote:The best article I've read today (in the i newspaper):

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-tory-party-scandal-elected-1349406

Poignant article.
I still wonder whether those Tories they threw under the bus will make a comeback.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:

I never said anything of the sort. Were there exaggerations from the remain campaign to try and scare the public into voting their way? Definitely. 

Has our economy or (specific to your point) the City of London benefited from Brexit? No, and that’s a fact. If you want to find positives from the result then that’s a fucking awful place to start. 

Do let me know when you find any though - or even better wake up and realise that this right-wing bunch of shysters who implemented Brexit lied to you and let’s start looking at serious ways we can improve our situation.

I think as we’re both on different ends of the Brexit case Troy we’re never going to agree on much and anyway, that argument is pointless now, we’re out. I do though agree that there were exaggerations on both sides and also that in the short term the negatives will outweigh the positives but I also believe we will gradually all benefit from our position outside a continually failing block.

What we should have learnt by now is that it's foolish to believe anything Boris says. Anyone who could lie to the Queen, for example,  should be regarded with the utmost suspicion.

The investigation into breaking the law needs to be conducted by an entirely independent body that can't possibly be accused of favouring the government or its ministers.

 The choice of Cabinet Secretary as impartial investgator and the timing of last night's TV message (which avoids immediate questions and debate/scrutiny by Parliament) are bound to arouse suspicion in any fair-minded observer. 

It doesn't help Boris that he has a history of mixed messaging. His meaning is often unclear and open to interpretation. His choice of vocabulary and phraseology lack cogency, as his old schoolmaster observed. He is not as bright as he thinks he is but trusts that he can blunder through with a few 3-word slogans in place of well-considered, judicious plans.

The public and those who lost loved ones while ministers partied and joked, flouting their own rules, deserve to know that the investigation will be honest and open.

The evidence in all the newspapers and on video is damning. Opinion polls back up the fact that the PM has now lost the confidence of much of the nation.

I agree Oko, the investigation needs to open and thorough, which I believe it will be. Any further hiding of facts will be quickly highlighted and jumped on by the media. As for BoJo personally, I’m not sure that he has lost the confidence of the nation. We all know how inaccurate polls are but it certainly indicates that he needs to rebuild his credibility. It’s been a bit of a Tsunami of problems for him recently but it will probably quieten down over Christmas and then we’re into a New Year. The big problem for the Tories of course, is who would you replace him with? I don’t see a majority rushing to throw him out because despite the problems, Boris is still seen as the most likely to win again. If that says something about the state of politicians today, I’d agree with you, it’s a pretty sad state of affairs!!

Tomorrow's North Shropshire by-election should be interesting.
Having lost Chesham and Amersham to the Liberals it seems that the Tories may struggle again in this rural seat in the heartland of Torydom - although with a humungous 23 thousand majority in the general election it very unlikely they'll lose it - but expect a sizeable dent in the majority.

But why?

Obviously the government's recent performance won't help their cause especially on the "trustworthiness" - or lack thereof - front. But it runs deeper than that and some conservative analysts have been suggesting that "without Brexit, the Tories don't have a message" i.e. they are a one-trick pony.

Furthermore the traditional rural Tory heartlands are increasingly feeling that the Tories have focused on investing in the "Red Wall" constituencies - and have moved away from the interests of their core voters.

Hard to see the Tories losing many seats in rural Britain, especially as the Liberals are so weak ATM, but losing a few and reduced majorities all round wouldn't concern them providing they hold the red wall seats they gained. But will they?

If it is indeed true that "without Brexit the Tories have no message" and the the promised local investment isn't forthcoming (e.g. the shelved northern rail link) maybe the lapsed Labour voters will start to have a rethink?

By elections are relatively insignificant, but I imagine North Shropshire will be a guage of the mood of one half of the equation.

I don’t see the Tories losing tomorrows by-election Lusty, Chesham and Amersham are completely different elector wise to North Shropshire. NS is a massive Brexit area and even given Boris’ problems, I can’t see the electorate turning to the heavily Leave Lib Dems. The Tories will obviously lose votes but I don’t think there’s any chance of them losing it. Nothings impossible of course and if the turn out is low enough, as I expect it to be, anything could happen.

I don’t accept that the only message the Tories have is Brexit, we’re out now and most leavers are at least content with that and always expected the EU to try whichever way they could to punish us to deter any others thinking of doing it, so a lull was initially expected. The main concern currently is Covid and I think both leavers and Remainers concede that the government have done well on it, though they do seem intent on spoiling that with their completely unnecessary reactions over Omicron. I don’t think that will have any effect tomorrow and other than that I think the ordinary citizen will just shrug off everything else over Christmas. I actually think that most people already considered Boris somewhat economical with the truth, so Partygate didn’t really surprise them. You have to remember that BoJo himself wasn’t at the party’s and so once the investigation concludes, certain individuals will be fired and everyone will move on to the next subject. Boris isn’t going anywhere, sad to disappoint you Lusty.

Bookies make Lib Dems favourite in North Shropshire poll

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/13/bookies-make-lib-dems-favourite-in-north-shropshire-poll-owen-paterson-byelection


Seems out of reach but not impossible to me.

If it had been held last week with all the storm raging over the Christmas parties, then I think it may well have been lost but I think the moment has passed - but there will still be a huge drop in the majority - a free hit if you like for the voters who know even if the seat is lost it won't dent the Conservatives majority in Parliament and will be won straight back at the next general election.

Whitesince63 wrote:The main concern currently is Covid and I think both leavers and Remainers concede that the government have done well on it

Last YouGov poll i saw had confidence in our governments response at 43% - and aside from a boost when the vaccine was initially rolled out it had been a pretty steady decline.

Nearly 150,000 deaths, GDP down by 10%, some of the worst, most inconsistent public health messaging of all time and a government who flouted their own rules - i don't know anyone who would describe this as 'doing well'.

The initial 2 vaccine roll outs were done well but now BoJo has promised to get everyone over 18 vaccinated or at least have an appointment by the end of the year which is plainly ridiculous!

I work in the NHS and it's on it's knees at the moment, we all got a letter from the plank himself earlier saying how great we are and grateful he is but that we need to push ourselves even harder to ensure the jabs are done 

Norpig wrote:I work in the NHS and it's on it's knees at the moment, we all got a letter from the plank himself earlier saying how great we are and grateful he is but that we need to push ourselves even harder to ensure the jabs are done 

More cleaning, less typing please.

At PMQs just now, Boris has accused Starmer of playing politics, when the exact opposite is true...... Labour voted WITH the government over their plan B!! Otherwise the Tories would have been defeated.

 Johnson has really lost his marbles!

Whitesince63 wrote:I don’t see the Tories losing tomorrows by-election Lusty,

Neither do I which is why I said it was unlikely - despite what some pollsters are saying. If anything, suggesting the Tories will lose might shore up their vote and drag them over the line. But I do expect the margin to narrow.

The point I was making was about the internal rumblings within the Tory party at local level - very evident in my rural area. The situation seems to be that nobody is happy with Boris but they're scared of dumping him as there's no credible replacement to maintain the populist vote so they're torn between sticking to their principles versus potentially losing power in the longer term.

The second point was about how support for Boris will stand up in the seats they took from Labour. I suspect there's some wavering there too but it won't be tested at the ballot box for some time to come.

I'm not disappointed - it is what it is so I have no expectations to be disappointed about.

okocha wrote:At PMQs just now, Boris has accused Starmer of playing politics, when the exact opposite is true...... Labour voted WITH the government over their plan B!! Otherwise the Tories would have been defeated.

 Johnson has really lost his marbles!

Au contraire! It was an intentionally crafted deflection statement.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

More cleaning, less typing please.

You could be right, i have a massive backlog of bedpans to scrub 

Had to laugh in PMQs when Starmer, rather than call on Boris to resign after depending on Labour to push through the public health measures, asked him to look in the mirror and decide whether he thought he had the trust and authority to lead.

Does he really think Boris will spend as much as a nanosecond considering that?

Clear, succinct and beautifully delivered:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59667565

okocha wrote:Clear, succinct and beautifully delivered:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59667565

Why have I just had a flashback of Monica Lewinsky's first close encounter with Bill Clinton?
Maybe I've been watching Only Connect too often.

North Shropshire has been a Tory stronghold for 200 years and it will remain a Tory stronghold after Labour put their hat into the ring (no chance) and the opposition vote is already split between the Greens and the Liberals.

Agree I think they’ll hold but interesting to see how low the Tory margin is on this. Paterson’s corruption has certainly hit them hard locally, as has Boris’s flouting of the rules.