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Bolton Nuts » BWFC » Wandering Minds » How is the Tory government doing?

How is the Tory government doing?

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boltonbonce
Hipster_Nebula
Whitesince63
Hipster_nebula1
karlypants
wanderlust
Sluffy
Natasha Whittam
Norpig
luckyPeterpiper
Cajunboy
Hip Priest
okocha
finlaymcdanger
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181How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Thu Dec 16 2021, 12:57

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Agree I think they’ll hold but interesting to see how low the Tory margin is on this. Paterson’s corruption has certainly hit them hard locally, as has Boris’s flouting of the rules.
Their margin over the nearest party isn't likely to drop anything like as much as the pollsters predict if the opposition split the vote further.
If all the Tory defectors moved to one party it would, but although their share of the vote is likely to fall, their margin is unlikely to decline anywhere near enough for them to lose their seat.
Labour should have backed off and the Liberals and Greens should have formed an alliance given that they have so much in common to offer North Shropshire's middle class belt.

182How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Thu Dec 16 2021, 23:17

Whitesince63


El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

wanderlust wrote:
Their margin over the nearest party isn't likely to drop anything like as much as the pollsters predict if the opposition split the vote further.
If all the Tory defectors moved to one party it would, but although their share of the vote is likely to fall, their margin is unlikely to decline anywhere near enough for them to lose their seat.
Labour should have backed off and the Liberals and Greens should have formed an alliance given that they have so much in common to offer North Shropshire's middle class belt.

I think the only chance any opposition had lusty, is if only one candidate stands and that’s just not going to happen. Even then, I don’t think many voters would switch, much more likely to stay at home and not vote at all. I suspect the turnout will be very low, which could have worked against the Tories but with a split opposition vote they’re unlikely to get enough, so like you I think the Tories will win reasonably comfortably.

183How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 06:39

Guest


Guest

Lib Dems win, a huge swing too. Matter of time for Boris now.

184How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 08:05

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Lib Dems win, a huge swing too. Matter of time for Boris now.
OMFG!

Undoubtedly a protest vote as around 13 thousand switched from Tory to Liberal and another couple of thousand switched from Labour to Liberal to create a swing of 29 thousand.

Wouldn't say it's curtains for Boris just yet though - but it has put the cat amongst the pigeons.

A comment on the view in Tory heartlands - but they're still Tories.

We need a red wall by election to gauge the overall picture.

185How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 08:13

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

wanderlust wrote:
Their margin over the nearest party isn't likely to drop anything like as much as the pollsters predict if the opposition split the vote further.
If all the Tory defectors moved to one party it would, but although their share of the vote is likely to fall, their margin is unlikely to decline anywhere near enough for them to lose their seat.
Labour should have backed off and the Liberals and Greens should have formed an alliance given that they have so much in common to offer North Shropshire's middle class belt.
I totally underestimated the ability of the middle class rural voters to ignore party lines and come together in a tactical vote. Even Labour voters joined in. I guess the voters formed the alliance that the opposition parties themselves couldn't - at least publicly. Brilliant! Don't mind being wrong about a perceived threat when the result is like this.

186How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 08:24

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Acceptance speech that thanks Labour voters and places the responsibility at the door of Boris's circus...

187How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 08:34

okocha

okocha
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Power corrupts.

Decency, honesty, integrity, compassion and competence are the eternal values that British people crave.

Tory Party chairman, Oliver Dowden, on TV this morning, shamefully continued the defence of the indefensible. He suggested that Boris and co, would continue to get on with "the things that matter", i.e. refusing to change.....great news for the opposition!

188How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 09:11

Whitesince63


El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Totally shocked by this result. As a Tory member though, I do have to say that I’m ashamed of BoJo and his shenanigans and the direction he’s taken the party but I still expected the party to hold out in a constituency with such a large majority. I actually though don’t think it’s just the Partygate problem that has affected the vote, the government are getting it wrong in so many areas. Climate Change, Brexit, Immigration as well as National Insurance and Triple Lock are just some of the things I’m not happy about. 

I have to blame Johnson for all this because he’s the leader but many of the issues confronting the party at the moment are caused by completely irrational and non Conservative policies. Removing almost his complete background team and replacing them with young, inexperienced and ultra liberal individuals, largely instigated by Carrie for me, was just madness. This is just not a Conservative party I’m afraid and unless BoJo considers a complete clear out and a volte face on several of his policy’s, I can only see the situation getting worse.

As a party member, I want the opportunity to have a say on whether Johnson continues because I don’t believe too many members would have voted for Boris if they’d imagined that he’d turn the party into the Greens, or wilted in front of the EU, let down our farmers and fishermen so badly, or reneged on his manifesto commitments so completely. He’s under pressure now and I honestly don’t see how he gets out of this without making major changes very quickly. The next one for me will be the Triple Lock increase. With inflation flying and looking to hit at least 6% soon, pensioners will quickly feel the effects in their everyday bills and considering the oldies are his biggest voting group, alienating us will be a major mistake.

189How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 09:56

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

Sluffy wrote:Seems out of reach but not impossible to me.

If it had been held last week with all the storm raging over the Christmas parties, then I think it may well have been lost but I think the moment has passed - but there will still be a huge drop in the majority - a free hit if you like for the voters who know even if the seat is lost it won't dent the Conservatives majority in Parliament and will be won straight back at the next general election.

Cool

190How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 10:13

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

I used to have a girlfriend from Market Drayton so I know the area a bit and it is very agricultural like Norfolk, so I'm wondering if yesterday's trade deal concessions to Australia played a part? Certainly a lot of unhappy Tory bunnies in my part of the world scared of cheap imports.

Given that the reported response to Patterson going was "shame he had to go really" in North Shropshire it does imply discontent with Boris and his policies as they seem willing to accept corruption as part of politics, but not bad policies and lying.

Hard to tell what a tactical protest vote really means in the scheme of things. Despite losing the seat, the area is still Tory through and through but it's circular dilemma for them.
The grass roots seem to want a more traditional Tory party but the current power is based on populism - maybe a change of leadership will bring back the Tory voters but at the same time alienate the lapsed Labour voters in the urban constituencies?

191How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 18:46

wessy

wessy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

So Christmas comes early the Charlatan at number 10 gets his arse truly spanked (Eton Style) and now Mr Squeaky clean Simon Case (Who will judge this impartially) it apears will never get the chance because he was master of ceromomy at another gig. This shower show no limits to there ineptitude.

When a prime minister can't do the detail he is a PM in name only and he's been found out, I hated Maggie with a vengence but you always had a begrudging respect for her detailed aopproach, then Boris comes along Oh forgive me, forgive me, Peppa Pig You can't make it up, but then again who needs to make it up when it's reality. Ho Ho Ho

192How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 22:35

Whitesince63


El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Local elections next May will be the turning point for BoJo, nothing will happen before unless there are more stories to come out which we don’t know about yet. The Christmas recess will take the pressure off and obviously Covid is likely to take the headlines. Obviously the opposition parties will try to keep the pressure on but they do need to be careful they don’t alienate themselves in their rush to rubbish Boris. Of course despite assurances to the contrary, it only needs one similar aberration by Labour to come out and all bets are off!!

193How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 23:12

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

Whitesince63 wrote:Local elections next May will be the turning point for BoJo, nothing will happen before unless there are more stories to come out which we don’t know about yet. The Christmas recess will take the pressure off and obviously Covid is likely to take the headlines. Obviously the opposition parties will try to keep the pressure on but they do need to be careful they don’t alienate themselves in their rush to rubbish Boris. Of course despite assurances to the contrary, it only needs one similar aberration by Labour to come out and all bets are off!!

I doubt it will - although I agree with the rest of your post.

The reason why I don't think it will is technical rather than opinionated.

You see local government elections are not the same - they actually work on a four year cycle, so you need to go back to the results of 2018 to see where and who are standing for election this coming May.

It turns out the Labour are defending 2,353 seats, the Conservatives only 1,332 and Lib Dems 542 - and most of the places holding elections are the big conurbations such as Greater London, Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Tyne and Wear - and not really a great many shire authorities where the Conservatives are defending their seats.

So yes, Conservatives may well indeed have a bad day but they've not got many seats to lose in the big cities and probably will hold many of their traditional true blue seats in the shires.

I can't see it being a watershed moment but then again who would have thought they'd lose North Shropshire six or seven weeks ago - and they did!

For anyone interested this is what they will be contesting in May -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

194How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Fri Dec 17 2021, 23:23

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

I thought this was a very good analysis from Kuenssberg -

Boris Johnson has been put on notice by his own side

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59707541

195How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sat Dec 18 2021, 16:05

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

"How Boris can still win" - an alternative analysis with current stats from Prof Matt Goodwin makes interesting reading.

And John Curtice also intimates that there may be a link to the idea that Boris can no longer depend on pro-Brexit voters to support the Tories which has implications for the red wall seats if true - and there are some indicators that it may be.

Certainly North Shropshire was hugely in favour of Leave with an almost totally white electorate.

196How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sat Dec 18 2021, 20:06

Guest


Guest

Seems like Brexit is finally fading off the agenda - and with it a 30% base in the polls the Tories could rely on as the only party leavers trusted to deliver Brexit.

So what’s left without that? Big C Conservatives like WS63 clearly don’t recognise the Boris government as ideologically conservative. The fear Tories have of a Labour government is one which interferes with their lives, puts up taxes and obsesses over the environment - all things Boris has done.

The challenge for progressives is ensuring this isn’t just the end of Boris but the end of the Conservatives in power. The damage done to the country and the immediate threat to democracy is far reaching. I’m no fan of Starmer, and his electoral performance in by elections has been poor overall - a progressive alliance is the only way to bring the change we need, I hope there are some conversations happening in private to get this moving.

197How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sat Dec 18 2021, 21:37

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

Lord Frost reportedly resigns as Brexit minister

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59714241

198How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sat Dec 18 2021, 22:04

Guest


Guest

Beat me to it. Think the real reason is Frost realising how impossible his brief was as Brexit minister. Unrealistically high expectations from the Tories and no real scope deliver on that given pressure from the EU and US. 

The realities of Brexit.

199How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sun Dec 19 2021, 01:33

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

After Frost admitted that Brits are financially better off in the Single Market he had to go really - can't have that kind of talk from your chief negotiator.
The point TROY makes about traditional Tories attitude is right but the other side of that coin is that in order to get elected Boris garnered Leave voters from the Labour camp and he has let them down too - and therein lies the fundamental problem of populism - promising everybody everything and/or being so vague about what you are actually going to do that it's inevitable that folk get let down as they all voted for different reasons. That's how Brexit crawled over the line but the reality is those promises are not deliverable and in some cases are self-conflicting as many sectors are finding out.

I'm not sure that Brexit has gone away yet. Sure the Tories can't use that as a vote winning tactic again but given the fact that it has done absolutely nothing for the country apart from make us poorer, it's failure may be used by opposition parties at the next general election - other than Labour who kinda painted themselves into a corner on the subject and will need a coalition to get anywhere near Downing St.

200How is the Tory government doing? - Page 10 Empty Re: How is the Tory government doing? Sun Dec 19 2021, 19:14

Whitesince63


El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Beat me to it. Think the real reason is Frost realising how impossible his brief was as Brexit minister. Unrealistically high expectations from the Tories and no real scope deliver on that given pressure from the EU and US. 

The realities of Brexit.
Not surprisingly Troy, I disagree totally. I believe Lord Frost resigned precisely because he didn’t get the backing he needed from Boris, especially when some Civil Service cretin indicated that we may not push to remove the ECJ after all. I agree we had high expectations but they were certainly not unreasonable. Whether it’s due to the pandemic, or BoJo’s incompetence is debatable but certainly the potential benefits of Brexit have nowhere near been delivered. Sadly, I doubt under Johnson that they will and as a party member I will be pushing for his removal at the first opportunity. Leopards don’t change spots and why anybody expects Boris to change his ways is beyond me? Some people may be able to sit down and have a reset but I don’t believe Boris is one of them.

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