Will we do it? - the run in thread

Thought it might be useful to have just one thread about the run in, as we seem to be talking about it in several places at once currently.

I've found the following (which I assume is correct?) which gives us some idea about the games to be played by ourselves and the main other teams rivalling us for a playoff place.

The opposition teams are colour coded to reflect the league positions they are in right now - presumably to give us an indication of how hard (or not?) the matches will most likely be.

Home games in capitals.

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With thanks to 'Alan' from twitter for doing the charts.

Apparently someone has done the same for Portsmouth's games too...

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75 points would have been enough to get you a play-off place in every one of the last ten years in League 1. An average of two points per game from now to the end of the season would get us to 74. That's usually been enough.

Looks like there's a scenario wherein we win every game between now and the end of the season and we still don't make the playoffs.

Potential points:

Rotherham   111
Wigan         111
MKD             99
Oxford          95
Plymouth      101
Wycombe      97

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Sunderland    94
Sheff W        97
Ipswich        90
BWFC           87
Portsmouth    92

If we win every game, we'll take 3 potential points each off MKD, Wigan, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Sheff Wed. Looking at the games the other teams have against each other we need Rotherham and Wigan to beat them all plus a few shock defeats to lower placed clubs or 5 teams to crash and burn (Sunderland and Wycombe are doing their best to help)

There's a long way to go yet and the good news is that last season 87 points was enough for automatic promotion and 74 scraped into the playoffs.

Will we do it? Not if we play like we did at Burton and Morecambe, but if we play like we did against Sunderland every game we certainly have a chance but there is no margin for error from here on in.

Can this be merged with the, where will Bolton finish thread with the poll on it?

Biggie wrote:Can this be merged with the, where will Bolton finish thread with the poll on it?

What ever for???

It can be but I don't see any point in doing it?

Might as well merge it with the poll we did at the start of the season if you want to link it to something like that then.

A poll is simply a snapshot view at a moment in time - if you did a poll just before Christmas people would have been saying we were going to get relegated!

This thread is intended to ebb and flow until the end of the season as results go for us, or against us.

It was only a few games back when Wanderlust was telling us all that we'd have to win ALL our remaining games to have even the remotest chance of making the play offs, yet here we are just three weeks later just 5 points away from 6th place!

We might be happy and optimistic now but look how we felt when we lost to Burton - think how we might feel if we lose on Saturday to MK Dons!

Enjoy the ride by all means - I said we'd do it when Wanderlust was adamant it was next to impossible only a few games back - but we are not there yet - and we don't get promoted for reaching the playoffs - we have to get through and win at Wembley when we do finish in the top six.

So no I don't think there's any point to merging this thread into a poll on what we thought would happen at a random date in early February.

That's my opinion on things anyway.

What does everybody else think?

Wow. Fook me. 
Just thought it was basicly the same discussion. 
My opening post about needing 75 points and how many points per match that is etc has been reflected on this thread.
Hardly a random date, it was 3 days ago (1 match ago) and much more relevant than a poll done before the season started.

Biggie wrote:Wow. Fook me. 
Just thought it was basicly the same discussion. 
My opening post about needing 75 points and how many points per match that is etc has been reflected on this thread.
Hardly a random date, it was 3 days ago (1 match ago) and much more relevant than a poll done before the season started.

Well if you feel so strongly about it then go and merge the threads together then, you've got Admin powers too!

Fwiw 19th Feb (three days ago) is still a random date being at a random point 33/46th way through the season!!!

Just to get back on topic a minute, Portsmouth won again tonight and remain 4 points behind us but with three games in hand.
They're obviously a threat but also a huge opportunity for us because their run in matches them with nearly all the teams in the mix - including us.

After yesterday's defeat to MKD Evatt says our "margin of error" (to make the playoffs) has narrowed again - and that might be appropriate if it was in our own hands, but it isn't.
We do have a competitive team now and if that had been the case from the beginning of the season I think we would be up there but with just 11 games left we can only hope that fate intervenes on our behalf now.

Eight more wins (out of 11 games) will get us into the playoffs [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

That's 75 points - enough last year but this year I'm not so sure.

Looking at our run in, we need to improve again to even achieve that.

Imagine the (impossible) scenario where we win every remaining game of the season including those against the teams above us. We'd finish on 84 points.

Now imagine that every other game between the 10 teams above us that BOTH SIDES LOSE i.e. neither team gets any points - but they win their games against the teams below us.

This is how the table would finish:

Wigan 93
Rotherham 91
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Sheff W 85
MKD 84
BWFC 84
Sunderland 83
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Wycombe 82
Plymouth 78
Oxford 77
Ipswich  71
Portsmouth 69


Miracle - and perspective - required.

Today we got 3 points - but so did Ipswich, MKD, Oxford, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Wigan and Wycombe,  so for me today's results sort of emphasised the scale of the problem.

We're 8 points ahead of Accrington now (although they have a game in hand) so it could be argued that it's developed into two leagues within a league with us at the bottom of the playoff place league. Every team below us has a negative goal difference and every team above us has a positive goal difference - and our GD is the lowest of those.

We need help from the lower placed clubs but it's difficult to see how with only two teams in the bottom half winning today (against other teams in the bottom half which doesn't help us)

Frustrating really as theoretically it's only 8 points to claw back in 10 games but as some other teams have more games left it could be more than 8.

On we go. Morecambe at home on Tuesday and we not only need to win but also boost our GD which will need more ruthlessness in front of goal than we showed today.

wanderlust wrote:We need help from the lower placed clubs but it's difficult to see how with only two teams in the bottom half winning today (against other teams in the bottom half which doesn't help us).

Not true, Lincoln (18th) beat Sheffield Wednesday (5th, now 6th)

Tuesday games of interest -

crewe v PORTSMOUTH
IPSWICH v Lincoln
M K DONS v cheltanham
PLYMOUTH V wimbledon
SUNDERLAND v fleetwood
BOLTON v Morecambe

Perhaps not too much hope for us there but Saturdays games look tasty!

BOLTON v PLYMOUTH
IPSWICH v PORTSMOUTH
M K DONS v WIGAN
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY v cambridge
shrewsbury v OXFORD
SUNDERLAND v crewe
WYCOMBE v ROTHERHAM

(Note I've colour coded Wigan and Rotherham just to reflect that they are almost certainly going to be in the playoffs already if not being automatically promoted at the end of the season).

Game over?

Biggie wrote:Game over?

Yes - it already was IMO.
MK Dons and Argyle showed us that we are almost competitive at the top of this division on our day - but equally we have to be concerned with getting just 2 points from a possible nine in the recent games against Morecambe & Burton whilst those above us are having no such problems.
Haven't seen anything to suggest we'll win the rest of our games and 6 teams will all suddenly go into freefall.

I can’t see much change at the top. 6 of the current top 7 teams will take the automatic and playoff spots IMO. Plymouth’s run in is horrendous so they may be the ones to miss out despite looking good.

I think we can expect 11th at best but that depends on how committed our players remain to the end of the season. I fancy the performances of two or three with eyes elsewhere may drop off.

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Truth is, defensively we aren’t good enough. Neither Aimson nor Johnson are good enough at this level so they’d have no chance higher up. Similarly we need a replacement in midfield for MJ who is also being found out but far from Evatt having a quiet summer, I think he needs to have a busy one to make the team strong for next season because the current one won’t do it. Similarly I don’t think Baka or Kachunga are good enough and I’d consider letting them go and bringing in another true goal scorer like Shockley from Morecambe, especially if they’re relegated.

I agree with 63, this team is nowhere near good enough to challenge at the top. Almost every time we've played a team in the top 6 this season we've been on the wrong end of the result, some of them dickings.

The keeper isn't good enough, but that has been an issue since Evans took over. The centre of defence isn't good enough. Santos is decent on his day, but too often he's found out of position. And for such a big man he is no threat from set-pieces - has he ever scored a goal? Johnson & Aimson are League 2 standard in my opinion.

The midfield is poor. MJ was very good in League 2, but the games have passed him by of late. Morley is ok, but nothing special. We desperately need a shithouse central midfielder in the Karl Henry mould - I'd be making a call to Scott Brown to see how he fancies 15 months of kicking some League 1 players.

Sadlier looks decent from the few sightings I've had of him, but can't get a game. Afolayan has two settings, brilliant and anonymous. Sadly he's been stuck on anonymous for weeks now.

Up top Bodvarsson looks decent although was poor yesterday. Charles, despite early promise, can't buy a goal and Bako is an impact sub at best. The fact Kachunga is getting on the pitch says everything about the current squad, his open goal miss yesterday was typical of his spell at BWFC so far.

So to sum up, the only players I want in the first 11 next season are Jones, John, Sadlier & Bodvarsson. I'd have Fossey too, but he won't be signing for us.

Don't think we are quite as bad as that Nat, we need to tweak the team a bit and i can't see us being as busy this summer as we have last year or in January.

We do need another CB as Johnston is poor and and we need more goals so another striker.