Will we do it? - the run in thread

I’d just repeat what I said in an earlier post. If you take our league results after 2nd January when at least some of our new recruits were available the points-per-game would equate to a full-season total of 89. In pretty much all recent previous seasons that would be plenty for the playoffs and in some seasons good enough for second place.  If you only took the games since that date in which Jones had played we’d have certainly have had enough points to be champions in all recent seasons.

My point is Sluffy that we have players on our books who I believe we can dispense with allowing us to replace them with fewer but better quality players. My list of outs would include Kachunga, Baps, Bakajoko, Tutte, Amaechi, Aimson and Delfouneso at least and possibly even Isgrove if Fossey signs because with Sadlier also to play wide right when would he be first choice? That would free up a lot of wage expense and could allow the 3 or 4 better players we need to come in without extra cost. I think our squads a bit too big now in some positions yet lacking in others and it needs balancing. So FV don’t have to splash the cash, we can still do it sustainably.

Whitesince63 wrote:My point is Sluffy that we have players on our books who I believe we can dispense with allowing us to replace them with fewer but better quality players. My list of outs would include Kachunga, Baps, Bakajoko, Tutte, Amaechi, Aimson and Delfouneso at least and possibly even Isgrove if Fossey signs because with Sadlier also to play wide right when would he be first choice? That would free up a lot of wage expense and could allow the 3 or 4 better players we need to come in without extra cost. I think our squads a bit too big now in some positions yet lacking in others and it needs balancing. So FV don’t have to splash the cash, we can still do it sustainably.

I agree with Baps, Amaechi and Tutte - One issue is that because of long term injuries and Covid etc. we have yet to see our best 11 on a regular basis. So hard to judge where to strengthen. Are there better strikers and center backs out there for next to nowt - I dunno.

It's back on. 

We have to make up a 9 point deficit in 7 games.
If we match last seasons run in (5 wins and 2 losses) we finish on 73 points.

It could be down to the final day, where Wigan, Sunderland and Wycombe are all away and Sheff Wed have to play Pompey. Meanwhile we should beat Fleetwood at the Macron in front of a good crowd.

We also have to play Sheff, Wigan and Pompey so if we get something from the games we are in with a shot.

Biggie wrote:It's back on. 

We have to make up a 9 point deficit in 7 games.
If we match last seasons run in (5 wins and 2 losses) we finish on 73 points.

It could be down to the final day, where Wigan, Sunderland and Wycombe are all away and Sheff Wed have to play Pompey. Meanwhile we should beat Fleetwood at the Macron in front of a good crowd.

We also have to play Sheff, Wigan and Pompey so if we get something from the games we are in with a shot.

Erm...it's not.
Plymouth - unbeaten in last 6 need only one more win out of 8 games to beat 73
Oxford and Sunderland only need 2 more wins out of 7 games to beat 73

...and that's the playoff positions sorted.

Even if by some miracle they somehow fail to manage that, both Sheff Wed and Portsmouth are ahead of and have a game in hand on us.
And then there's Ipswich (catchable) and Wycombe who are already 7 points ahead.

We'll finish 10th or 11th.

wanderlust wrote:

Biggie wrote:It's back on. 

We have to make up a 9 point deficit in 7 games.
If we match last seasons run in (5 wins and 2 losses) we finish on 73 points.

It could be down to the final day, where Wigan, Sunderland and Wycombe are all away and Sheff Wed have to play Pompey. Meanwhile we should beat Fleetwood at the Macron in front of a good crowd.

We also have to play Sheff, Wigan and Pompey so if we get something from the games we are in with a shot.

Erm...it's not.
Plymouth - unbeaten in last 6 need only one more win out of 8 games to beat 73
Oxford and Sunderland only need 2 more wins out of 7 games to beat 73

...and that's the playoff positions sorted.

Even if by some miracle they somehow fail to manage that, both Sheff Wed and Portsmouth are ahead of and have a game in hand on us.
And then there's Ipswich (catchable) and Wycombe who are already 7 points ahead.

We'll finish 10th or 11th.

Whilst what you say is true. I don't like it.

Win 7 out of 7 and we get to 79. That should do it.

Biggie wrote:

Whilst what you say is true. I don't like it.

We lost it at Burton and compounded the problem v Morecambe unfortunately.

Biggie wrote:Win 7 out of 7 and we get to 79. That should do it.

Still struggling to see how.

If 79 is the target, Wigan and Rotherham are already safe
Then we'd need at least winning 5 teams to crash and burn big time and the rest above us to crash a bit

Mathematically it might still be possible but realistically no way is it likely. For me we lost it last week with only 1 point out of six possible. We had more than enough chances to win both games comfortably, as indeed we did again yesterday but I’m afraid that even though we’re better than we were, we’re still not quite good enough which is why I’m hoping Evatt will sign  Stockton in the summer. Although Baka has scored a few, he’s really not a good enough starter and Kachunga is just woeful in front of goal. I still maintain that if we rely on those up top again next year we’ll miss out again. Next season will be even harder than this year with 5 or 6 “Big clubs” still here even if one of them does go up with Rotherham, Wigan or MK and it’s very likely Derby will be in here too.

If you work out the average points per team, and assume they will continue with the same till the end of the season we get 
Sheff wed finishing on 80
Sunderland 79
Wycombe 77

It doesn't matter what Plymouth, Pompey, Oxford, or Wycombe do, as long as they perform to their usual average. 

So when you look at the table as a whole its easy to think that we need lots of teams to crash and burn, but that's not true. We only need Sunderland and sheff wed to drop something extra (just a draw instead of a win on the final day would do it) . The rest can carry on. 

So all we really need, if we win all our games, is to hope that sheff wed and Sunderland get an unexpected draw or loss in their last 7 games. So we don't really need lots of teams to drop the ball in a massive way. But we do basically need to win all our matches.

Plymouth play tonight and Saturday - Ipswich and Wednesday on Saturday. So by our next game we will have a clearer picture.
Sadly on the Saturday of our Wigan game most of our rivals are home. Nowt we can do except win all our game and hope.

Plymouth won again tonight and have now played as many games as us but are 16 points ahead.

I agree. We're going to finish just about where I expected us to finish at the start of the season.

Hopes will be high for next season though, and I don't think the fans will tolerate another mid table finish.

Jobs on the line.

boltonbonce wrote:I agree. We're going to finish just about where I expected us to finish at the start of the season.

Hopes will be high for next season though, and I don't think the fans will tolerate another mid table finish.

Jobs on the line.

I guess it all depends on how much money Sharon has to throw around.

Before the MKD game I was thinking that even if we won every remaining game of the season including that one it would be touch and go for the playoffs. The 8 points we've dropped since then would have put us right in the mix but the damage was already done much earlier in the season.
Evatt has indicated there won't be much spending in the summer, but there are plenty of players including those out on loan we can shed from the wage bill and as long as any signings are a step up in quality it will be progress.

Plymouth are irrelevant in our push.

karlypants wrote:

I guess it all depends on how much money Sharon has to throw around.

Where would she get the money from?

I think Sharon's going to try to sell as many season tickets as she can before telling us anything about how much debt remains or how it's going to get paid.

The ST money is not going to go very far anyway but every little helps.

P.S. The three promoted League 1 teams from last season have all filed their 2021 accounts. They all lost money. Peterborough lost the least (£1million), Hull the most (£8million)

P.P.S. All three spent more on wages than their total turnover

Back on the will we do it question. 

If we win all 7 games. We finish on 79.
If we allow Sunderland and Sheff Wed to win all of their home matches and lose their away games, Sunderland finish on 79 and Sheff Wed on 78.

I know it's a big if, but, it's definitely within reach if we can pull 7 wins out.

Like I said, I know there are other teams up there but we just assume that their form will continue the same.

Finishing points prediction
Sunderland 77
Sheff Wed 76

Bolton just gotta to win enough