Will we do it? - the run in thread

Norpig wrote:Don't think we are quite as bad as that Nat, we need to tweak the team a bit and i can't see us being as busy this summer as we have last year or in January.

We do need another CB as Johnston is poor and and we need more goals so another striker.

You are too easily pleased.

Natasha Whittam wrote:

You are too easily pleased.

Story of my life Nat 

Its more a change of approach i think we need. we spend too much time fannying about with it in our own half. We need to be a bit more direct (not lumping it though) and get it through midfield a bit quicker. We do press well which i like so don't think we need wholesale changes to the team.

wanderlust wrote:
Yes - it already was IMO.
MK Dons and Argyle showed us that we are almost competitive at the top of this division on our day - but equally we have to be concerned with getting just 2 points from a possible nine in the recent games against Morecambe & Burton whilst those above us are having no such problems.
Haven't seen anything to suggest we'll win the rest of our games and 6 teams will all suddenly go into freefall.

While I agree with most of this Biggie, I’d make a couple of points in mitigation. Of course, we should be able to play in all weathers and on any L1 pitch, but both were exceptionally bad, and happened at the same time, for the Burton game. As for Morecambe away, in my view, we only lost it because Santos was sent off when he shouldn’t have been. The Morecambe game at home was remarkable for our number of missed chances, but I guess that’s football. 
I think we’ve been badly affected by Gethin Jones absence this last week or so. Aimson isn’t a terrible defender, but is a poor passer and doesn’t have a rapport with Fossey, who hadn’t looked anything like as menacing without Jones.

… and, by the way, Burton have also beaten Sunderland, Portsmouth and Ipswich at home this season. So, no pushover on their dreadful pitch.

Norpig wrote:Its more a change of approach i think we need. we spend too much time fannying about with it in our own half. We need to be a bit more direct (not lumping it though) and get it through midfield a bit quicker. We do press well which i like so don't think we need wholesale changes to the team.

TBF we seemed to create more/better chances in the final third when Sheehan and/or Lee were playing behind the strikers - surely there's a balance to be found that would improve things up front?
A better CB, a bigger beast than MJ in the middle, sign Fossey and a bit of tweaking could be enough.

I can't be arsed doing all the numbers but the position we are in now and points accumulated have obviously be brought about over the whole season - and not just through the players on the pitch now.

If people care to remember we started the season well, then the wheels came off big time leading to Sarce going midway through the first half of the season and us hardly winning again until after the first couple of games in January - and we've done fairly well since.

IF we started the season WITH the players we have NOW there's no reason not to believe we wouldn't  be sitting pretty in a playoff place today and maybe even up there in the top two!

Now if you look at things that way, then maybe the centre backs and strikers and all the players people are having a pop at now are actually good enough already to get us promotion next season.

Obviously signing even better players would help and of course we may lose Fossey back to Fulham but what I'm trying to say is that I don't believe we need wholesale and sweeping changes to the squad - which is probably just as well because we have most of them contracted for next season and probably not a massive wage budget to sign the numbers and quality of new players people somehow think we should be doing!

Of course things might change a bit if we get bids for Dapo and Santos but we've definitely upgraded the team from the likes of Brockbank, Darcey, Fonnzy, Sarce, Doyle, Gordon, Isgrove, etc who all played a greater or lesser part in the team up to the January transfer window.

We are roughly tenth in the table despite those players playing a chunk of the season for us - I'm not trying to disrespect them or what they did - but merely to point out that if we had the players we do have now we'd be a lot higher up the table than where we are now!

It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't do that much in the summer window as per what Evatt as already said and maybe look to strengthen in January once again if needed.

Just my thoughts.

Sluffy wrote:

Just my thoughts.

Exactly - we just came to the party too late in the day. I think the stat quoted on Quest before the Plymouth game was that if the season had started in January we'd be top of the league.

The wheels have come off a bit recently but it would be good to finish off the season strongly and ideally improve enough to win the remaining games against the teams above us, especially Wigan away. A strong finish might just make us a more attractive proposition to the quality players we need to recruit to smash it next year - including Fossey.

Personally, I don’t think we’ll pick up enough points or those above us will drop enough points to see us in the playoffs. However, whether we’re good enough to make them next season is now a more interesting question. 
Obviously, the best teams in the league go up, and three teams come down from the Championship, but let’s assume that they will be as difficult or even more difficult to play than those they are replacing. I’m happy to have that challenged!
Looking at our league games since the start of this calendar year, we’ve played 16, won 9, lost 5 and drawn 2. Our points per game has been 1.81, which would equate to 83.26 - enough most years for a playoff spot. The first of those games was against Rotherham and before any of our new recruits had joined. I fully acknowledge this may be dubious, but if you exclude that game as our team didn’t represent its current strength the points per game increases to 1.93 or nearly 89 points in a full season. Maybe enough for an automatic promotion. 
Another interesting fact. The only game we dropped any points since 1st January when Jones has been playing was MK Dons away, when, by the way, I thought Jones had one of his poorer games. 
I’m certainly not saying we shouldn’t strengthen over the summer - and I think a centre back is our main priority - but we also have Sheehan and a few others to come back and our performance since January has, in any case, probably been good enough to give us a good shot at promotion next year.

Until we get a good keeper, decent centre half, and a midfield Karl Henry type we aren't going anywhere near promotion. And Fossey will also be difficult to replace.

I'd expect most managers to address those problems, but I'm not convinced our manager is one of them.

For what it is worth Barry, we lost the next league game after Rotherham too - which would bump your stats up even more!

Although I have made more or less the point you have made above, there are obviously too many variables to guarantee we would be racking up the points at the same rate next season - for instance Santos and/or Dapo may be sold in the summer and their replacements not work out as we would hope, or say Charles could pick up an injury just after the window closes and we could be without our best striker with no replacement for him for half a season, Fosse may not return from Fulham next season, etc, etc.

Fingers crossed that those things don't happen - but they could!

I rather think though that this squad (plus one or two new faces during the summer) given reasonable luck, should be able to make the playoff's at least.

I don't know the stats for relegated clubs from the Championship getting promoted back at the first time of asking but Rotherham, Wycombe and Sheff Wednesday who came down last season are certainly all in contention this season, so yes I guess we can expect the same stiff competition to go up automatically ourselves next season, as it has been this season, in that there probably seven or eight strong candidates for the three places available.

Obviously depending on the state of the clubs finances strengthening a few key areas would be brilliant but I suspect the best deal we could achieve (if the hints are genuine) is to clinch a deal for Fosse and Santos signs his contract extension.

I think personally, the area in which we could strengthen is by developing a system to be competitive in games against teams who are physical and/or those that just come for a draw and park the bus.

We've got the Icelandic lad and Baka and we play with either wingbacks or previously two wide front men so we could go more long ball at times rather than keep trying to tippy tappy the ball up the field when the pitch is a quagmire or we are playing during a blizzard!

Horses for courses and all that, where as Evatt's mantra so far as always been about one distinct style of play.

It does seem to work well, very well at times, when the opposition have come to give us a game but it doesn't cut it when they either bully us like Rotherham, or park the bus for much of the game.

Easy for me to say, I know but we do know such games will be coming up next season and we know we don't perform well in them with the system we have been using.  Surely it isn't beyond the capabilities of a decent manager and coaches to plan ahead for such scenarios and spend time formulating how to cope much better in them?

We also need to be a much dangerous threat from set pieces.  Morley seems to be able to strike a dead ball well and Sheehan too before his injury, so hopefully again the manager and coaches can improve the team (dramatically) in that area too?

I don't think promotion is beyond us next season but I do think in order to achieve it we have to win games ugly at times and constantly score from set pieces - neither of which we seem to do under Evatt so far.

Let's hope he improves us in both these areas before next August's kickoff!

We did indeed lose the first three games in January - two league games and one cup game - but by the time we played and lost to Wycombe at least a few reinforcements had arrived, and that’s why I included that game in the statistics. 
Who will we lose and who will depart. My bet would be to retain Santos, sell Dapo and not be able sign Fossey, although if he’s injured now that may change things. However, we’ll only sell Dapo for good money, which will allow us to recruit.

Wins tonight for Wigan, Wycombe, Plymouth and Rotherham plus a draw for Sheff W mean we are now 11 points and GD behind the playoffs. Portsmouth losing to Plymouth suggests we might have a shout at finishing 10th but even they are 2 points ahead with a game in hand.
Stand out result was Shrewsbury 5 Morecambe 0 which puts our performances against Morecambe into perspective.

wanderlust wrote:Wins tonight for Wigan, Wycombe, Plymouth and Rotherham plus a draw for Sheff W mean we are now 11 points and GD behind the playoffs. Portsmouth losing to Plymouth suggests we might have a shout at finishing 10th but even they are 2 points ahead with a game in hand.
Stand out result was Shrewsbury 5 Morecambe 0 which puts our performances against Morecambe into perspective.

Not trying to be negative but I’ve completely given up on hopes for this season now. The only thing we can achieve now is top ten, which is much less than I’d hoped for but probably realistic. I do though think that if we keep the same squad we’ll struggle to make top 6 next year purely because we just aren’t physical enough. I agree with Nat that we need both a strong CH and a true Mr Nasty in midfield, as well as probably an experienced keeper who can dominate his box. I’d also like to add another striker if we can afford it and I’d let Baka and Kachunga leave, who despite Evatt’s constant support, just ain’t good enough I’m afraid. Get Cole Stockton in because I can’t see him wanting to go back to L2. Do that and I believe we can make the automatics and at least the play offs.

We have several players still out with long term injuries  - presuming all come back for next season we should be stronger right there without spending any money.
As of right now I would send Amaechi back and possibly have Baps retire. That opens up two slots right there should there be any actual cash to spend. To be determined are Trafford/Dixon our keepers going forward - if so, then Trafford needs to be signed and of course Fossey.
Surely we should be a top six side next season even if we do nowt based on statistics from January on.

terenceanne wrote:We have several players still out with long term injuries  - presuming all come back for next season we should be stronger right there without spending any money.
As of right now I would send Amaechi back and possibly have Baps retire. That opens up two slots right there should there be any actual cash to spend. To be determined are Trafford/Dixon our keepers going forward - if so, then Trafford needs to be signed and of course Fossey.
Surely we should be a top six side next season even if we do nowt based on statistics from January on.

Theoretically yes, but there are definitely areas than need improving and what happens if we have further long-term injuries next season?

We need to strengthen again if we can afford to.
Question is do we recruit just to get promoted or do we upgrade now to form the basis of a team that could hack it in the Championship so that we don't have to spend yet again if we do manage to get promoted?

If we had the same squad as we have now I fear we’d probably finish around the same place next year. If we seriously want to challenge for automatics, as I’m sure we do, then we are some way short of the best teams. We still have a number of weaknesses and whilst we may not need the major surgery of the last two years, we need to invest to continue improving the squad. Evatt has done a good job of bringing in younger players who should improve, Dapo, Rico and Morley for example but we are still lacking in certain positions. We definitely need an experienced and physical CH to partner Rico who I believe will stay. A dogged midfielder and another proven striker are also needed and I think if we had those at least, we’d be pushing for the top spots.I’m sure IE has his targets but my worry is that he’s never in his short managerial career been faced with retaining players who might want to leave, like Dapo and Rico, so we’ll see how he gets on with that

Whitesince63 wrote:If we had the same squad as we have now I fear we’d probably finish around the same place next year. If we seriously want to challenge for automatics, as I’m sure we do, then we are some way short of the best teams. We still have a number of weaknesses and whilst we may not need the major surgery of the last two years, we need to invest to continue improving the squad. Evatt has done a good job of bringing in younger players who should improve, Dapo, Rico and Morley for example but we are still lacking in certain positions. We definitely need an experienced and physical CH to partner Rico who I believe will stay. A dogged midfielder and another proven striker are also needed and I think if we had those at least, we’d be pushing for the top spots.I’m sure IE has his targets but my worry is that he’s never in his short managerial career been faced with retaining players who might want to leave, like Dapo and Rico, so we’ll see how he gets on with that

The thing you are missing 63 is that we aren't the same squad that started the season.

The squad we have now is the one we've had only since January.

We are eleventh in the league which include a run of 12 games starting from the thrashing by Wigan up to and including the loss at home to Wycombe in mid January in which we won 2, drew 2 and lost 8.

Think how many points more we probably would have obtained with this group of players than the ones we had for those games? I suggest we'd still be in the playoff race now at the very least!

It's all conjecture I know and we really don't have an idea as to what or how the finances behind the club are which will determine ultimately if we hold on to contracted players rather than sell them and whether we bring in new and better players than what we currently have.

As always hope for the best and prepare for the worst - such is the life of us Wanderers fans, eh!

Very true Sluffy and we wouldn’t expect it any other way!! I do of course accept that our side is better since January, much better in fact but I still don’t believe that we’d be good enough to finish much higher than we will this year. We might make the play offs but I don’t want to just sneak up, I want to go up as Champions and I consider that with just a few quality reinforcements, we can do that. Now obviously we don’t know if FV have the finances to do that and invest further, or whether they are close to securing the further investment speculated but assuming they do it would not cost a fortune to recruit the 3 or 4 players necessary. I know we want to be sustainable and don’t want to go back to the days of high debt but I’m afraid that in todays football and with some of the teams we’re going to be competing with again, would we have any choice but to strengthen because they all will.

Of course there is always a choice, it depends obviously on both what the owners want and how far they are prepared to go to achieve it.

Have people forgotten the recent example of Bury already, where their owner 'bought' promotion one season only to see the club go bust the next!

That didn't work out too well did it!

I'm also I bit lost about this further investment we are supposedly securing?  Presumably you are referring Alan Nixon's story about some potential Swiss investment, if so I certainly wouldn't count on that happening - why would some random Swiss investors want to plough money into BWFC when we've clearly just had to apply for a government loan just to keep us going and our debts stand substantially more than the sum of the assets we own???

Then again we are talking about football and stranger things do happen!

I however won't be holding my breath on such a thing happening in this case though.

I would be surprised if we do make any Marquee signings in the summer, I imagine signing Fossey would be our pinnacle if we can achieve that but who knows you may be right and we splash the cash.

I do though think the Administrators invoice for £1m plus will need to be settled before that though - at least in the normal world of business!

But football seems to play to a different set of financial rules, so who really knows what might happen!

It's all part of the fun not knowing, isn't it!