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Economy watch

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Copper Dragon
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karlypants
Norpig
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Chairmanda
xmiles
Sluffy
Bollotom2014
boltonbonce
whatsgoingon
Natasha Whittam
okocha
scottjames30
NickFazer
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wanderlust
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81Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:06

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

:clap:

Post of the week Mr Fazer.

82Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:11

karlypants

karlypants
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Thank god I'm not the only one to think the same! Very Happy

83Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 21:20

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

Nicely put NF. It is sometimes forgotten that the other players on the field also have problems, and sometimes far worse than ours.

84Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 22:26

okocha

okocha
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Yes, well said, Nick F.

 Obviously, there was bound to be initial uncertainty in the wake of a result that the "experts" and the government had not catered for.....and uncertainty leads to lack of confidence financially, but the aftermath is not proving as catastrophic as the scaremongers had claimed it would be. For example, our chancellor has not found it necessary to institute the sort of emergency, stringent, austerity budget that Osborne claimed would be essential in the event of Brexit. Those who have fled rather than stayed to manage the situation they created, have prolonged the uncertainty. Thanks, Dave et al.

Mrs May has brought a firm sense of calm, reason and competence. And, as NF says, how well are our European ex-partners doing in comparison....and not just in terms of their economies either?

I wonder if Mrs. Merkel feels at ease with the way things are panning out for the EU. Is the whole concept a project doomed to failure?

85Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 23:00

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

NickFazer wrote:
The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

I agree that it will be some time before the full effects of Brexit are felt but I don't think anyone seriously suggested that if we had remained in the EU "everything would be rosy". However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people?

86Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sat Aug 06 2016, 23:02

scottjames30

scottjames30
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Get article 50 signed and done with, fuck them off.

87Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 00:10

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

Well said NickFazer.

There's two sides to every story.

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

Rolling Eyes

88Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 03:26

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.



Putting aside the market confidence thing for a moment, I totally agree that the full effect of Brexit won't be known until we have actually left so all we know is what's happening now - which is what the comment I made was about. And the point was that what happens now determines to some extent what shape we are in as we try to trade our way into a better position than that which recent setbacks have put us in - which was the leave campaign's plan all along wasn't it? 
Or should I say IS the Government's plan now?
I'm just saying that our negotiating position before the referendum (which underpinned that key argument) has changed since the referendum - and may therefore affect what Britain comes out with when we leave.
Basically, when we voted, we had a big stick to renegotiate trade deals with so we believed we'd be in a good place to negotiate better deals, but our stick is not what it was - and now France has a bigger stick than us.

89Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 09:14

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

In terms of the economy business will always be attracted to places where it is beneficial for them to be, it is the government's job to create those conditions. The fundamentals of the UK economy are as strong as any in the Eurozone and we should stop talking down our prospects and look at the opportunities in front of us. We haven't even begun to negotiate any deals yet but already the doom mongers are talking about us having to accept poor deals, this is precisely the sort of attitude that will become a self fulfilling prophecy, if it isn't beneficial to us then don't sign it.

90Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 09:54

okocha

okocha
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

 However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people? 
.......whereas Cameron, Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan, Diane Abbott and Jeremy Clarkson(!!) do???!!!

There were far more issues at stake than just the economy.

If the EU was democratically electable and had shown itself capable of major reform, the result may have been different.

91Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 09:58

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

Sluffy wrote:

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

Rolling Eyes

I would be interested in learning the source for the idea that "what benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU - they couldn't come up with a single one!". I find this hard to believe. I know the Tories relied on Project Fear (it worked on the Scots) and Corbyn effectively sabotaged the Labour side but Sturgeon did empasise the positive benefits of EU membership. There is plenty of evidence out there as a simple internet search will reveal but one of the obvious ones is the level of subsidy received in the poorer areas of the country. Bizarrely the leave vote was strongest in the regions most economically dependent on the EU.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj3p9vE9q7OAhViL8AKHRV0DhcQFghDMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmetro.co.uk%2F2016%2F06%2F25%2Fregions-with-the-biggest-leave-votes-are-most-economically-dependent-on-the-eu-5966531%2F&usg=AFQjCNFbdjIL50zM7R6xs68xBg11UnhxrA&sig2=yar_OxcMVXUX7rQBpBT4nQ

Note how high Lancashire is on this list. Dream on if you think a Tory government is going to match those grants.

92Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 10:03

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

okocha wrote:
 However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people? 
.......whereas Cameron, Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan, Diane Abbott and Jeremy Clarkson(!!) do???!!!

There were far more issues at stake than just the economy.

If the EU was democratically electable and had shown itself capable of major reform, the result may have been different.

Of course they don't care. My point is that Brexit fans never accept that voting the way that Farage, etc want them to vote is all too similar to turkeys voting for Christmas.

Please see the link I posted just above.

93Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 10:05

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Okocha, that is completely correct, I focused my post on economics as that is the topic of the thread but in many ways the economy is the least of the EU's problems right now and unless they abandon or suspend Schengen then I fear that there will soon be a lot of civil unrest on top of the existing terrorist threat.

94Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 10:23

Guest


Guest

Can't be bothered to quote it on my phone, but that was a great post Nick - regardless of my view on the subject.

95Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 10:50

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Xmiles the people in those areas came to the conclusion, not entirely incorrectly, that their lives were not going to get any better in or out of the EU, no jobs, poor schools, run down local services and ever greater influx of immigrants. So they voted to give the smug well off a bloody nose and if it made the likes of Richard Branson and Mike Ashley a few million less well off then so much the better.

Globally the wealthy have become richer at an ever increasing rate, in Britain, in Europe and in the USA whilst the general population has seen wages and living standards stagnate, with a good measure of austerity thrown in following the recession in 2008. Multinational companies have profited greatly from cheap labour and at the same time avoided paying their fair share of tax, if these monies were paid by the likes of Amazon and Google (in full) then there would be less need for grants and subsidies.

The increasing gap between rich and poor is more to do with globalisation than the EU, the political class are part of the problem in Westminster as well as Brussels's, so it remains to be seen if a will to create a fairer society in post Brexit Britain exists, I am not holding my breath.

96Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 11:46

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

NickFazer wrote:Xmiles the people in those areas came to the conclusion, not entirely incorrectly, that their lives were not going to get any better in or out of the EU, no jobs, poor schools, run down local services and ever greater influx of immigrants. So they voted to give the smug well off a bloody nose and if it made the likes of Richard Branson and Mike Ashley a few million less well off then so much the better.

Globally the wealthy have become richer at an ever increasing rate, in Britain, in Europe and in the USA whilst the general population has seen wages and living standards stagnate, with a good measure of austerity thrown in following the recession in 2008. Multinational companies have profited greatly from cheap labour and at the same time avoided paying their fair share of tax, if these monies were paid by the likes of Amazon and Google (in full) then there would be less need for grants and subsidies.

The increasing gap between rich and poor is more to do with globalisation than the EU, the political class are part of the problem in Westminster as well as Brussels's, so it remains to be seen if a will to create a fairer society in post Brexit Britain exists, I am not holding my breath.

I completely agree with your analysis Nick.

The reason I am so upset by the result is that I think voters deluded themselves into believing that a vote for Brexit was a vote "to give the smug well off a bloody nose" when the really rich like the owners of the Mail and Sun and Boris actually supported Brexit. And like you I don't think things are going to get better for most of us outside the EU. I actually think they will get worse because for example, contrast the EU trying to get the likes of Google to pay tax versus the sweetheart deals our pathetic HMRC does with them.

97Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 11:51

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

NickFazer wrote:
The increasing gap between rich and poor is more to do with globalisation than the EU, the political class are part of the problem in Westminster as well as Brussels's, so it remains to be seen if a will to create a fairer society in post Brexit Britain exists, I am not holding my breath.
I think you're right NF, and I also think that the current government is well aware of the change in the country's expectations, and it would seem that the new PM is making decisions with that in mind, (hopefully).
Finding the right approach between expectations, practicality, and planning, is one hell of a hard balancing act, and we can expect lots of ups and downs in the months, if not years, to come.

98Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 12:37

NickFazer

NickFazer
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf

Ups and downs, well as Wanderers we are all used to those. Very Happy Very Happy

99Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 18:30

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

NickFazer wrote:In terms of the economy business will always be attracted to places where it is beneficial for them to be, it is the government's job to create those conditions. The fundamentals of the UK economy are as strong as any in the Eurozone  and we should stop talking down our prospects and look at the opportunities in front of us. We haven't even begun to negotiate any deals yet but already the doom mongers are talking about us having to accept poor deals, this is precisely the sort of attitude that will become a self fulfilling prophecy, if it isn't beneficial to us then don't sign it.

Completely agree re business relocation and you kinda got my point except to say that it was always going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy because whilst everyone knew that our economy would get shafted in the short to medium term they didn't follow that logic through to realise that we'd then have to conduct the negotiations we are depending upon from a much weaker position.
And by announcing that we'd need to renegotiate in advance (i.e. during the run up to the referendum) they exposed our weakness/dependency on the outcome - which is a very dumb move by anyone's standards.


Oh - and negotiations started two months ago.



Last edited by wanderlust on Sun Aug 07 2016, 18:45; edited 1 time in total

100Economy watch - Page 5 Empty Re: Economy watch Sun Aug 07 2016, 18:44

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

xmiles wrote:
Sluffy wrote:

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

Rolling Eyes

I would be interested in learning the source for the idea that "what benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU - they couldn't come up with a single one!". I find this hard to believe. I know the Tories relied on Project Fear (it worked on the Scots) and Corbyn effectively sabotaged the Labour side but Sturgeon did empasise the positive benefits of EU membership. There is plenty of evidence out there as a simple internet search will reveal but one of the obvious ones is the level of subsidy received in the poorer areas of the country. Bizarrely the leave vote was strongest in the regions most economically dependent on the EU.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj3p9vE9q7OAhViL8AKHRV0DhcQFghDMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmetro.co.uk%2F2016%2F06%2F25%2Fregions-with-the-biggest-leave-votes-are-most-economically-dependent-on-the-eu-5966531%2F&usg=AFQjCNFbdjIL50zM7R6xs68xBg11UnhxrA&sig2=yar_OxcMVXUX7rQBpBT4nQ

Note how high Lancashire is on this list. Dream on if you think a Tory government is going to match those grants.
It was absolutely criminal that the Remain campaign didn't build their campaign around the benefits of European membership - which aren't about grants - that's just getting back money we pay in anyway.
The big benefits are:

  • Confidence - and therefore increased value - in the British economy whilst we are part of a European bloc that is far better equipped to fight off the rising challenge of the big two economies.
  • Political stability in the European region in the nuclear age
  • Voting rights including the veto over any country - including Turkey - from joining
  • Scientific, medical and judicial joint ventures 
  • Military support and the future option to create a European army that would reduce the cost to Britain and risk to British soldiers substantially
  • A seat at the table to ensure Britain's interests are maintained in cross border issues such as immigration.
  • Pre-negotiated advantageous trade deals with zero tariffs, substantially reduced "red tape" for British companies (who will now have to negotiate 27 deals and produce 27 sets of documentation)

There are other benefits but more importantly being in the EU had the potential to shape the future of our neighbours as well as the UK itself.

Sadly, none of that matters now and we'll just have to see what we can salvage.

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