Coronavirus - will we survive?

Sluffy wrote:

Think the big difference here is that it doesn't seem to be individuals not following the rules but communities.  Lets not ignore the elephant in the room, he is talking about the Muslim community.

What I've not really got my head around is why there clearly is a problem in Muslim communities in the areas now in 'lockdown' in particular (and Leicester previously) but non to speak of in Muslim communities in and around London?

For instance in the 2011 Census Slough had an Asian ethnicity of 39.7%

http://www.slough.gov.uk/council/joint-strategic-needs-assessment/ethnicity.aspx

Whilst Blackburn was 28%

https://www.blackburn.gov.uk/facts-and-figures/people

Of course this information is nearly 10 years out of date but I suggest that Slough and Blackburn are probably not dissimilar to each other ethnicity wise these days but Slough currently has a seven day average of new cases per 100,000 population of 5.4 (138 out of 315 authorities) whilst Blackburn is 88 (1st out of 315)

Top 160 local authorities for #covid19 by cases per 100,000 residents reported in the last 7 days@BlackburnDarwen 88 cases per 100k (87 yday)@OldhamCouncil 60 (57 y)@Leicester_News 59 (60 y)@BradfordMDC 50 (47 y)@TraffordCouncil 41 (42 y)

Average for England is 8.6 pic.twitter.com/mbsfYwWcoE

— andrew (@avds) July 30, 2020

As far as I know they are culturally the same through out the country so the best guess I could come up with was a sort of difference in sophistication, knowledge and behaviour between the two area, the 'City' mentality and the 'rural/town' mentality?

There must be something that differentiates between the two otherwise it would be the same behaviour and results in all Muslim communities.

That's my reasoning anyway.

There’s no ‘elephant’ to ignore, he openly blames Muslims for not taking the rules seriously enough In the interview. 

The question is why has he blamed this lockdown on Muslims not taking rules seriously enough without a jot of evidence?

Sluffy wrote:
It's blindingly obvious that the measures are because of Eid tomorrow (well today now!) and I would hazard a well educated guess, that the announcement wasn't made earlier for fear of stoking up potential racial tensions.  The announcement at the last minute is a fait accompli, and no doubt put across along the lines that the government had no choice in view of positive test data leading up to this decision having to be taken now.

Not surprised in the least to me that Hancock has just said this earlier -

14:20
Hancock denies targeting Eid celebrations

The Health Secretary has denied new restrictions imposed in parts of northern England are aimed at curtailing Eid celebrations.

Matt Hancock announced late on Thursday evening "immediate action" was needed across Greater Manchester and parts of east Lancashire and West Yorkshire to keep people safe.

He has been accused of making the announcement "at the last minute" as it came just hours before the Islamic festival of Eid-Ul-Adha began on Friday.

Asked on BBC's Today programme whether the measures were announced late on Thursday night to stop Eid celebrations from taking place, Mr Hancock said: "No, my heart goes out to the Muslim communities in these areas because I know how important the Eid celebrations are.

"I'm very grateful to the local Muslim leaders, the Imams in fact, across the country who've been working so hard to find a way to have Covid-secure celebrations.

"For instance celebrating Eid in parks where there's more space available and of course outdoors is safer than indoors."

This probably explains what was behind the decision -

13:20
What is the festival of Eid al-Adha?

Many Muslims celebrate Eid al-Adha, which can last between two to four days, by sacrificing an animal for feasts to be shared by family, friends and those in need.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-53516625


It's a mass coming together of people that lasts through to Monday.


And clearly the police don't believe the new 'rules' will be followed by many -

14:27
'We're trying to get our heads around new rules'

A senior police chief has said his force is looking for clarity about enforcing the new lockdown restrictions in east Lancashire. [which covers Blackburn]

Mr Woods said the force was expecting many calls over the weekend about big house parties or barbecues and said they would be dealt with proportionally.


It was just a massive recipe for widely spreading the virus even further within the Muslim community over a four day celebration and simply had to be stopped from doing so as clearly social distancing, masks, etc, etc were simply not being adhered to hence the rapid rise in new infections in those communities in the last few weeks.

For balance I also post this to show that EVERYBODY needs to comply with the rules, which clearly many simply are not bothering with.

Police patrol beaches as Brighton tells visitors not to come

The seafront in Bournemouth and Poole in Dorset is being patrolled by police and council officers as thousands of people descend on the beaches.

Roads were already gridlocked by By 09:00 BST and a mobile app to aid social distancing on the beaches was showing red in three areas - meaning "avoid".

Back in June, a major incident was declared in Bournemouth because of the crowds arriving in hot weather.

Dorset Police said its officers would be working longer shifts and some had had their rest days cancelled to cope with the anticipated influx of visitors over the summer.

In Kent, Thanet Council warned many of its most popular beaches were also nearing capacity.

Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove city council has issued a warning on Twitter, expressing concern about the number of people in the city.

"If you're not already here, please don't travel to the city today," it said, adding: "There is limited capacity on public transport - Large numbers make it impossible to maintain physical distancing."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53605329

Boris and the kipper from the room next door:-

https://twitter.com/i/status/1193459609018753025

And the scary thing is that it is real. Boris really said this bullshit and lies during the brexit campaign.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:

Anyone but the governments fault.

Follow up interview following the one above -

Lead up to the video below -

The MP told LBC radio there were "sections of the community that are not taking the pandemic seriously". When asked if he was talking about the Muslim community, he replied: "Of course."

He went on to say he was talking specifically about the situation in his constituency, particularly in three wards in Halifax where there was a high proportion of Asian residents, or houses of multiple occupancy.

"If you look at the areas where we've seen rises and cases, the vast majority, but not by any stretch of the imagination all areas, it is the BAME communities that are not taking this seriously enough."

Asked to justify his comments in an interview with the BBC, Mr Whittaker said he was basing them on data from the UK's test and trace system for infection rates in the borough of Calderdale.

The MP said he had received "hate mail" but stood by his remarks, saying "unless we talk about these things openly... sensible conversations" would not be possible about the actions needed to stop a resurgence of the virus.

"Because I am white do I not say these things? I am not going to just be quiet because some people don't like what I have said," he added in an interview with BBC Yorkshire's Political Editor James Vincent.

Classic stuff really, ‘should I not say it because I’m white’ - no Craig, you shouldn’t say it because you haven’t got any evidence to support your suggestion that Muslims are ignoring the rules. 

Clearly had a call from Tory HQ and was asked to soften his tone before the next interview. How do we end up being governed by such small minded, useless wankers?

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Classic stuff really, ‘should I not say it because I’m white’ - no Craig, you shouldn’t say it because you haven’t got any evidence to support your suggestion that Muslims are ignoring the rules. 

Clearly had a call from Tory HQ and was asked to soften his tone before the next interview. How do we end up being governed by such small minded, useless wankers?

But he says he has - he says the test and trace show who has had it, who they have had contact with and who caught it from them and became infected and carriers in turn themselves - and that was in three community areas within his authority and that these areas are Muslim ones and the virus wasn't passed on the pub or beach but in the homes of family and friends - exactly the scenario that would have played out with the Eid celebrations with the added dimension that family and friends scattered across the country where the new case totals are currently low, would have been visiting, mingling with multiple others and staying over the weekend and returning, possibly carrying back unknowingly the virus as well.

It's also very true that people are very loath to speak out for fear of being labelled racist - if you doubt that just look at Wanderlust's view of me on this very thread over the last week or so.

The plain truth of the matter is that people of all colours throughout the country have not followed the rules BUT the culture in Asian communities of large multi-generation family's living under one roof and worshiping and socialising with friends and family who similarly have large multi-generational family's living under one roof also, who in turn meet and visit different friends and family's within their community's.

We certainly have enough 'white' dickheads going down to the pub and beaches and catching the virus but they don't live with the likes of grandma and grandad who they could end up killing because of their non-social distancing, nor a number of other relatives in the same house as them who catch the virus and spread it on to their other many friends and family in their community, who all live with their elderly relatives and grandparents.

It's simply a numbers game - nothing to do with being racist.

But many simply won't perceive it that way and label it racism and that's why so few people are prepared to confront the elephant which is definitely present in the room.

Oh right okay, so this mystery data Craig has access to shows that the virus is being transmitted through these communities because they’re ignoring the rules? Couldn’t be anything else that’s causing it? Higher proportion of key workers amongst BAME for example?

Says a lot that you were so keen to say statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt given the number of variables at play when it suits your argument but not in this.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Oh right okay, so this mystery data Craig has access to shows that the virus is being transmitted through these communities because they’re ignoring the rules? Couldn’t be anything else that’s causing it? Higher proportion of key workers amongst BAME for example?

Says a lot that you were so keen to say statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt given the number of variables at play when it suits your argument but not in this.

A couple of things -

1 - The information is factual -

Sluffy wrote:Asked to justify his comments in an interview with the BBC, Mr Whittaker said he was basing them on data from the UK's test and trace system for infection rates in the borough of Calderdale.

2 - Track and Trace ask those who have tested positive who their contacts have been - so they can be tested - I would assume from what Craig has been saying it is directly because of this -

Posted at 8:11
Hancock: Test and trace data shows virus spreading through home visits

Explaining his decision to ban separate households from meeting indoors in many parts of northern England, Health Secretary Matt Hancock says test and trace data given during contact tracing has shown "most of the transmission is happening between households" and between people visiting family and friends.

"Whenever anybody tests positive, the vast majority of them we manage to speak to, and we ask which contacts they've had.

"That's shown that the vast majority of contact of people who have the virus, other than people in their own household... is from households visiting and then visiting friends and relatives."

He says the data has allowed for the more targeted measures, rather than more blanket rules seen previously.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53605329/page/5


The initial infection might be because of someone caught it as a key worker, I don't think anyone is disputing that but the SPREAD of the infection in the north is clearly RECORDED from Track and Trace as through carriers (probably who have no symptoms at the time, having contact with family and friends and NOT at work, down the beach, outside Liverpool or Leeds football grounds or some illegal rave.

3 - What is being stated is factual information about why the decisions have been taken and nothing at all to do with 'statistics' - don't know where you got that from?

4 - I'm also not even arguing, merely informing people of stuff they clearly haven't seen before jumping to their own personal views about this.

5 - There's no question that a multitude of white people have not followed the rules too, and I guess numerically there's far more of them than those in the BAME (or specifically Muslim community) not following the rules either BUT the big difference between the two groups is that the culture/society in which many Muslims live allows considerably more contacts for the virus to spread than the rest of us.

It's not a criticism, it is not a which hunt, it is not a blame game, it simply a factual reality and that is why the virus is spreading so quickly in the communities that have had sanctions applied to them today.

The only thing I can't square in my head is why this isn't a problem too is Muslim communities in and around London too?  

Ominously though the rate per 100,000 population has been growing in these areas too in the last week - for instance last Thursday 23rd July, Slough ranked 240th out of 315 with a rate of 2.0 today it is 121st with a rate of 6.0 a jump of 120 places and a tripling of the rate.

Hopefully it is only a blip.

That entire post was a waste of time Sluffy.

I’m not arguing there’s a spike in infections amongst the Muslim population in those areas.

I’m arguing he doesn’t know the reasons behind that spike.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:That entire post was a waste of time Sluffy.

I’m not arguing there’s a spike in infections amongst the Muslim population in those areas.

I’m arguing he doesn’t know the reasons behind that spike.

He does though!!!

The facts have been identified by Track and Trace - that's the whole point of doing it!!!

The facts are that the majority of those being infected are from the Muslim community are arising from being infected by a family member or a friend!

The only way you can catch the virus is by breathing it in or touching something infected and putting it to your mouth, nose or eyes.

If you follow the advice we've all been told about a billion times that shouldn't be happening - it's as simple as that.

I don't doubt for one second that it's not being passed on deliberately - like someone feeling ill and still seeing their relatives or friends - and that people may well get a bit too close than they should when they meet a loved one or their best friends (we all probably do that) but the fact remains that Muslims have more contacts in their community through their culture and no matter how disliked/over cautious people think about the social distancing rules, they aren't being followed rigidly and that is causing the steep increase in positive cases in those communities.

You seem to be in denial about this for some reason?

Sluffy wrote:If you follow the advice we've all been told about a billion times that shouldn't be happening - it's as simple as that.

I‘m a-symptomatic and go to see my parents for a meal at a restaurant, no face masks, limited social distancing - they catch it.

Which government rules have I broken there?

T.R.O.Y. wrote:

Sluffy wrote:If you follow the advice we've all been told about a billion times that shouldn't be happening - it's as simple as that.

I‘m a-symptomatic and go to see my parents for a meal at a restaurant, no face masks, limited social distancing - they catch it.

Which government rules have I broken there?

Depends on who is in who's bubble -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52637354

BUT that is very much different than what is happening and hence causing the spread in the areas put in 'lockdown' today - put very simply one household bubble can form part of a mutual bubble with another household - but that's it.

What's happened is that multiple people are visiting friends and relatives from multiple households - and clearly not following the rules (listed below) otherwise they shouldn't be getting infected - it's as simple as that!

1. Keep your distance from people outside your household or support bubble
Whilst recognising this will not always be possible, it is important to be aware that the risk of infection increases the closer you are to another person with the virus, and the amount of time you spend in close contact with them. Therefore, you are unlikely to be infected if you walk past another person in the street.

The government recommends that you keep two metres away from people as a precaution or one metre when you can mitigate the risk by taking other precautions in this list.

2. Avoid being face-to-face with people if they are outside your household or support bubble

You are at higher risk of being directly exposed to respiratory droplets (released by talking or coughing) when you are within two metres of someone and have face-to-face contact with them. You can lower the risk of infection if you stay side-to-side rather than facing someone. The key thing is not to be too close to people outside your household or support bubble. If you must, keep it as brief as possible.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/staying-safe-outside-your-home/staying-safe-outside-your-home

1.3 What should I still avoid doing?
It remains the case that you should not:

- socialise indoors in groups of more than two households (anyone in your support bubble counts as one household) – this includes when dining out or going to the pub
- socialise outdoors in a group of more than six people from different households; gatherings larger than six should only take place if everyone is from exclusively from two households or support bubbles
- interact socially with anyone outside the group you are attending a place with, even if you see other people you know, for example, in a restaurant, community centre or place of worship
- hold or attend celebrations (such as parties) where it is difficult to maintain social distancing and avoid close social interaction – even if they are organised by businesses and venues that are taking steps to follow COVID-19 Secure guidelines
- stay overnight away from your home with members of more than one other household (your support bubble counts as one household)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do


As I keep saying, I know people aren't infecting others deliberately, they just aren't observing the rules for the 'new normal' and they are living and circulating in a community where there is much social interaction.

It's really not hard to understand what's happened and why, if the boot was on the other foot and 'white' people lived with multi-generations in large family groups under one roof and were socially active in their community with everyone else who were doing the similar - then exactly the same would happen!

It's not a question of religion or skin colour per se, it's a question of people in such communities and with so much social interaction and living large family's that include vulnerable people in them simply not following social distancing advise.

I guess it has to be a learning experience for all of us rather than some hidden racist agenda that some seem to be implying.

Ok, so in summary - yes you can spread the disease while following government guidelines.

Neither Craig, nor yourself, have any evidence to support your claim that Muslims are ignoring rules and that’s what’s responsible for the spike in cases.

Why don’t you find something better to do than try and argue black’s white on the internet Sluffy?

As that’s not going to happen, can you instead respond with facts and not assumptions please:

Fact: spike in virus data among Asian communities.

Assumption: caused by Asian communities ignoring rules.

Well you're definitely in denial then.

The FACTS are from Test and Trace.

The TEST bit is who is found to be positive.

The TRACE is whom they have had contacts with.

The RESULTS are that the overwhelming number of cases and thus the driver of the spread of the virus in Greater Manchester, east Lancashire and West Yorkshire are being found in the Asian (Muslim) community and that the spread is contact through contact with family and friends, which should not be occurring if social distancing rules are being correctly applied.

QED.

You putting QED on the end of your posts doesn’t mean you’ve proved anything (except that you’re a bit pretentious).

You have a theory as to why this is happening, and that is all. Your inability to separate fact from theory is what led you so far astray on Anderson - and probably countless other topics over the years.

Whitaker’s remarks are inflammatory - and if he’s going to make them he needs to be 100% sure they’re correct - and there is no way of him doing that with the facts available to him.

Argue all you like, I’m sure you will. But you’re trying to claim theories are facts and it’s not something you’re ever going to win - you’re heavily out voted on this.

I think you're being a bit sensitive with regards the mention of 'Muslim', TROY.
The point being made by a few commentators, as well as Sluffy, is that this isn't a religious problem, but more of a social one. The Asian, (Muslim), community have a very family oriented way of life, rather more than average, as I understand it.
When a big religious event comes up, such as Eid, its natural for the community to get together with meals, parties, and meetings, even more. Like many they have probably seen lockdown as easing off, and the first thing they have been doing, is going back to their normal way of life, which centres about socializing. These events have been backed up by figures including tracking and testing, as explained.
What the Asian community have been doing, within themselves, probably without knowing, is to increase the spread of of the virus. 
Its nothing to do with the religious side of things, and its right to raise the reasons for the outbreaks, rather than try to pussyfoot about what some would see as sensitive. it can then be addressed directly. 
Were all at risk, regardless of colour or creed.

Glos, I’ve no issue with local lockdowns it’s the right thing to do.

I have issue with this Tory MP saying the reason for the lockdown is the Asian community ignoring the rules. As demonstrated above you can follow the rules and still transmit the disease - there are also a higher proportion of BAME in key worker roles with a higher exposure to the virus.

So he doesn’t know the reasons the increased spread of the virus, he can have theories - but it’s impossible for him to know for sure.

There are too many variables for him to make a claim like this, and if you don’t know for certain it’s irresponsible to make these remarks.

I see where you are coming from, but better to be wrong after the event in this case, rather than than wait for concrete proof. How many could have died while they procrastinate ?