Coronavirus - will we survive?

FOR NORPIG'S ATTENTION -

Don't know if you've seen this but I thought you might be interested if you haven't -

Coronavirus: Cheap steroids save lives from severe Covid

The latest study brings together all clinical trials involving steroids on coronavirus patients around the world.
It confirms dexamethasone works and that another steroid, hydrocortisone, is equally effective.

The drugs are not thought to be helpful in the early stages of a coronavirus infection - when symptoms include a cough, fever or a sudden loss of taste or smell.
But as the disease develops, the immune system can go into overdrive, damaging the lungs and other organs.
It is this stage of Covid that steroids are thought to help with.

Much more here -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53612397

Thanks Sluffy i was aware of Dexamethasone so it makes sense that Hydrocoortisone would work as well as they are similar drugs.

Got to start stocking up for the expected Winter panic soon 

Top of the League!!!

(Not a good place to be though!).

A further 42 today (and so nearly out of lockdown too!!!)

It's all this pissheads fault Bolton is top of the list 

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18697176.mp-claims-told-coronavirus-spike-may-caused-holidaymaker-failing-self-isolate-going-pub-crawl/

Norpig wrote:It's all this pissheads fault Bolton is top of the list 

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18697176.mp-claims-told-coronavirus-spike-may-caused-holidaymaker-failing-self-isolate-going-pub-crawl/

He must have been the one who went and spread it around the Bottom Bull pub.

Good News -

Coronavirus case numbers 'remain unchanged' in England

The level of coronavirus among the community in England remains "unchanged" for the week to 25 August, the Office for National Statistics suggests.

Its latest survey of people in households estimates there were around 2,000 new cases of coronavirus per day.

This suggests that, despite outbreaks in some local areas, overall case numbers remain stable.

The ONS figures give one of the most accurate pictures of infections levels.

They are based on more than 151,000 swab tests collected from people at home, whether they have symptoms or not.

But there is always a margin for error in the figures because over the past six weeks of the study very few people have tested positive - just 71 from 68 households.

The figures also do not cover what is going on in hospitals or care homes, where infection rates are likely to be different.

However, they continue to paint a picture of a stable level of infections among private households in England.

The ONS estimates that 27,100 people in the community had the virus during that week from 19 to 25 August.

This is similar to the estimate for the previous week and several weeks before that.

In Wales, during the week to 25 August, 1,400 people are estimated to have had Covid-19 - also unchanged from previous weeks.

A different kind of test - an antibody test, using blood samples - which looks for evidence of people having previously had the infection, has been carried out on 7,000 people as part of the ONS study.

Results suggest that around 6% of the population - or one in 17 people - have been infected with the coronavirus in the past.

This equates to 2.7 million people in England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54025713

66 more positives for Bolton today.

Going to have to be a stricter lockdown if this rate continues.

Latest information up to 31st August showing Breightmet/Darcey Lever areas to be most effected (which does fit in with the rumour of non self isolation drinking in that area from people returning from Spain)

We crash through the 100 barrier and are nearly 30 in front of second place!

Almost certainly we will be going higher still tomorrow with just 16 cases dropping from the seven day average and replaced by God knows how many more new cases!

How are hospital admisions now? I think it's still low which makes me think that the virus is potentially weaking itself now?

Then again, we could end up with a mix of strains with a lot of people still hell bent on having a holiday abroad!

karlypants wrote:How are hospital admisions now? I think it's still low which makes me think that the virus is potentially weaking itself now?

Then again, we could end up with a mix of strains with a lot of people still hell bent on having a holiday abroad!

To be honest I have a little difficulty following the hospital admissions stats because they don't seem to be updated daily like the rest of the stats are - or maybe I'm not understanding them correctly BUT it does seem from what I can gather that admissions are really LOW.

The stats showing today is that for the whole of the UK (the tables I have put up showing Bolton at the 'top' is just for England) is that there seemed to be just 124 admissions (from 1,940 new cases), that the total of people in hospital is just 743 (we've been having over 1,000 new cases every day for the last 21 days apart from just two occasions) and that just 76 people are on ventilators.

Now if you consider how few deaths there are and that those on the ventilators are going to be in hospital long term, it would seem to my way of thinking that not only are surprisingly few in hospital (compared to the daily numbers of new cases we have) and that roughly 100 admissions are being made daily, then it would seem to me that the average stay in hospital for those admitted must be around a week at most!

IF I'm reading things right then it seems to me that whilst cases are increasing in the community that the vast number of positives are being found in people with few or any symptoms (if the current new cases average was say for argument 1,000 per day and it's clearly above that figure) and say an average of 100 people are admitted each day - then 90% of the new cases don't lead to hospitalisation and those that do on average need it for less than a week.

All good news actually - unless of course you or your loved ones are in the minority who have been really poorly with it.

My thinking fwiw is that there's three types of people out there in the community - a largish number who don't really care and are catching the virus and spreading it around, a good chunk of people who are obeying by the rules, and a small percentage of vulnerable people who have gone into hibernation until all this is over.

The ones catching and spreading it, are the forty's and under, who by and large it is not harming but making 1 in 10 of them needing hospital treatment and that they usually are well enough to be discharged fairly soon thereafter.

Those playing by the rules don't catch it unless they are unlucky and the sick and vulnerable are keeping well out of it.

I further reason that until a vaccine/whatever is found, these three groups will continue to act in the same ways they are, until I guess some form of herd immunity is built up (presuming that can happen?) in the group that don't give a fuck, and when that point is reached new infections will start to go down, the ones playing by the rules will continue to do so - and eventually the virus 'goes away' until something happens to make it flare up again - but this time (and the times after) fewer and fewer people will catch it (assuming those that had previously have some resistance to it) and it slowly fades into the background of our daily lives.

The key factor for me is that as long as hospital admissions don't go silly, then in a sense it doesn't matter how many new cases there are as it isn't equating to people becoming seriously ill and dying from it (unless you are one of the unlucky ones!).

So many people on my facebook pages bragging they won't wear a mask, it's no wonder Bolton is top of the table 

What these morons don't seem to be able to grasp is that yes it may not affect therm if they get it but they could pass it on to their parents of grandparents who may have underlying issues which will only get worse if they catch it.

I last visited Sesimbra 16 years ago when it was still a beautiful little fishing village with just one very nice 50s/early 60s designer hotel. Not now. Last night half of Lisbon descended on it for the weekend and today the beaches and restaurants are rammed. 
I was bricking it thinking about the knobheads who have descended on the Norfolk beaches.

But it’s different here - you can actually swing a dead cat.
It’s almost is if everyone brought their own tape measures and have actually socially distanced in a sensible fashion. Everyone wears a mask indoors including kids and nobody disrespects anyone and the alcogel is flowing like lube at a Tory convention.
I knew we’d be alright when I saw the cleaner in our hotel room changing the cling film on the TV remote

Another 27 cases for Bolton taken them to what I think is their peak of 105.5 per 100,000k averaged over the last seven days.

Tomorrow 68 cases drop out and I'd be disappointed if we get 69 or more new ones tomorrow to replace them - but you never know!



Tougher measures are being introduced in Bolton in an effort to stop coronavirus cases rising and prevent a full local lockdown.

The infection rate in the area has risen to 99 cases per 100,000 people per week - the highest in England.

Those aged between 18 and 49 account for more than 90% of cases.

Announcing new and immediate measures affecting transport and social mixing, council bosses pleaded for "everyone in Bolton to play their part".

Residents have been asked to only use public transport for essential purposes, which means travel to education, work, and essential matters such as hospital appointments.

People have also been told not to mix with other households in any setting indoors or outdoors anywhere, except in their support bubble.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54042400

Why do you have to wear a face mask to enter a restaurant that it full of people who are not wearing a face mask?

wanderlust wrote:Why do you have to wear a face mask to enter a restaurant that it full of people who are not wearing a face mask?

Because YOU may be infected and pass it on to them.

Don't you get it yet?

The face mask is to help save OTHERS not help save you.

Fwiw I've seen one expert has describing it as an 80/20 thing in that they reckon it gives a 80% chance of preventing an infected person (who may well not even know they are contagious) passing it on and acts as a 20% effective barrier of stopping the wear being infected (because the mask contains much of the droplets in your breath - but it isn't air tight in itself (unless you have the proper stuff) and can allow the very fine 'vapour' to get through to your nose if you are unlucky enough to be around someone infected at the time.

In theory restaurants are practising social distancing inside their establishments and as such you shouldn't be able to be infected and why you have no requirement to wear a mask at your table.

Of course theory and practice is not always the same thing.

Of course I get it. I just don’t think it adds value if folk put on a mask, walk through the door and then immediately remove the mask.

wanderlust wrote:Of course I get it. I just don’t think it adds value if folk put on a mask, walk through the door and then immediately remove the mask.

Presumably they are within social distance of those sat eating whilst they are walking to their table.

Once they are at their table they are social distance from everyone else and free to take off their masks in safety to others and themselves.

I guess if everybody was simply doing this everywhere, respecting others by wearing a mask, social distancing and frequently washing their hands we could all help to beat this virus easily - but of course plenty just don't give a fuck.

I tend to food shop in three local stores to me (not the massive supermarket types) and all three stores are in a different direction from my home and as such are in different neighbourhoods. In one store, everybody wears masks and use the hand disinfection before entering. In the second store it's about half and half who wear masks (this is mainly a white neighbourhood), in the third one you would be lucky if 20% wore masks (this is a mixed neighbourhood).

All three shops are all within about a half hour walking distance, all three neighbourhoods all having different social norms of what is acceptable and the 'way we do things around here'.

We are never going to beat this thing without some vaccine or similar because too many people simply can't be arsed to do the basic and easy little things that would help.

I assume you are not a great fan of wearing a mask based on your original comment and scathing reasoning for the restaurants need and policy? Why else even mention it if wearing a mask wasn't an issue for you and had become second nature to yourself?

It wouldn't surprise me in the least that you think you know better than they/everybody else does.

Sluffy wrote:Another 27 cases for Bolton taken them to what I think is their peak of 105.5 per 100,000k averaged over the last seven days.

Tomorrow 68 cases drop out and I'd be disappointed if we get 69 or more new ones tomorrow to replace them - but you never know!

Wow, was I wrong!

105 cases for Bolton today AND just short of 3,000 for the UK - that's over 1,000 from yesterday.

Problems ahead it seems.

A staff member has tested positive at Astley Bridge Connie club and also the Bank Top Brewery Tap just further up on Belmont Road.

They have said that everyone has been notified through contact tracing but I bet they haven't.

They have had a deep clean and back up and running today aparrently.

We are awaiting school closures now due to the tighter lockdown rules that the council has decided to impose as Bolton college has had to make new changes to accomodate students.

Sluffy wrote:

Presumably they are within social distance of those sat eating whilst they are walking to their table.

Once they are at their table they are social distance from everyone else and free to take off their masks in safety to others and themselves.

I guess if everybody was simply doing this everywhere, respecting others by wearing a mask, social distancing and frequently washing their hands we could all help to beat this virus easily - but of course plenty just don't give a fuck.

I tend to food shop in three local stores to me (not the massive supermarket types) and all three stores are in a different direction from my home and as such are in different neighbourhoods.  In one store, everybody wears masks and use the hand disinfection before entering.  In the second store it's about half and half who wear masks (this is mainly a white neighbourhood), in the third one you would be lucky if 20% wore masks (this is a mixed neighbourhood).

All three shops are all within about a half hour walking distance, all three neighbourhoods all having different social norms of what is acceptable and the 'way we do things around here'.

We are never going to beat this thing without some vaccine or similar because too many people simply can't be arsed to do the basic and easy little things that would help.

I assume you are not a great fan of wearing a mask based on your original comment and scathing reasoning for the restaurants need and policy?  Why else even mention it if wearing a mask wasn't an issue for you and had become second nature to yourself?

It wouldn't surprise me in the least that you think you know better than they/everybody else does.

Really unnecessary snide comment yet again but yet again I’ll let it pass in case you have another hissy fit.

In answer to the question, I am a great believer in wearing masks and showing respect for others however the point I was making is that it is obligatory to wear a mask when entering catering premises regardless of the risk to social distancing and yet it’s ok to remove said mask once inside. Surely common sense would dictate that you should where a mask if people are near but it’s not necessary if they are ten yards away?